scholarly journals Influence of Climatic Factors on Malaria Epidemic in Gulu District, Northern Uganda: A 10-Year Retrospective Study

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ouma Simple ◽  
Arnold Mindra ◽  
Gerald Obai ◽  
Emilio Ovuga ◽  
Emmanuel Igwaro Odongo-Aginya

Background. Globally, 15 countries, mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa, account for 80% of malaria cases and 78% of malaria related deaths. In Uganda, malaria is endemic and the mortality and morbidity due to malaria cause significant negative impact on the economy. In Gulu district, malaria is the leading killer disease among children <5 years. In 2015, the high intensity of malaria infection in Northern Uganda revealed a possible link between malaria and rainfall. However, available information on the influence of climatic factors on malaria are scarce, conflicting, and highly contextualized and therefore one cannot reference such information to malaria control policy in Northern Uganda, thus the need for this study. Methods and Results. During the 10 year’s retrospective study period a total of 2,304,537 people suffered from malaria in Gulu district. Malaria infection was generally stable with biannual peaks during the months of June-July and September-October but showed a declining trend after introduction of indoor residual spraying. Analysis of the departure of mean monthly malaria cases from the long-term mean monthly malaria cases revealed biannual seasonal outbreaks before and during the first year of introduction of indoor residual spraying. However, there were two major malaria epidemics in 2015 following discontinuation of indoor residual spraying in the late 2014. Children <5 years of age were disproportionally affected by malaria and accounted for 47.6% of the total malaria cases. Both rainfall (P=0.04) and relative humidity (P=0.003) had significant positive correlations with malaria. Meanwhile, maximum temperature had significant negative correlation with malaria (P=0.02) but minimum temperature had no correlation with malaria (P=0.29). Conclusion. Malaria in Gulu disproportionately affects children under 5 years and shows seasonality with a generally stable trend influenced by rainfall and relative humidity. However, indoor residual spraying is a very promising method to achieve a sustained malaria control in this population.

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry Ddumba Mawejje ◽  
Maxwell Kilama ◽  
Simon P. Kigozi ◽  
Alex K. Musiime ◽  
Moses Kamya ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) are the malaria control interventions primarily responsible for reductions in transmission intensity across sub-Saharan Africa. These interventions, however, may have differential impact on Anopheles species composition and density. This study examined the changing pattern of Anopheles species in three areas of Uganda with markedly different transmission intensities and different levels of vector control. Methods From October 2011 to June 2016 mosquitoes were collected monthly using CDC light traps from 100 randomly selected households in three areas: Walukuba (low transmission), Kihihi (moderate transmission) and Nagongera (high transmission). LLINs were distributed in November 2013 in Walukuba and Nagongera and in June 2014 in Kihihi. IRS was implemented only in Nagongera, with three rounds of bendiocarb delivered between December 2014 and June 2015. Mosquito species were identified morphologically and by PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction). Results In Walukuba, LLIN distribution was associated with a decline in Anopheles funestus vector density (0.07 vs 0.02 mosquitoes per house per night, density ratio [DR] 0.34, 95% CI: 0.18–0.65, p = 0.001), but not Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto (s.s.) nor Anopheles arabiensis. In Kihihi, over 98% of mosquitoes were An. gambiae s.s. and LLIN distribution was associated with a decline in An. gambiae s.s. vector density (4.00 vs 2.46, DR 0.68, 95% CI: 0.49–0.94, p = 0.02). In Nagongera, the combination of LLINs and multiple rounds of IRS was associated with almost complete elimination of An. gambiae s.s. (28.0 vs 0.17, DR 0.004, 95% CI: 0.002–0.009, p < 0.001), and An. funestus sensu lato (s.l.) (3.90 vs 0.006, DR 0.001, 95% CI: 0.0005–0.004, p < 0.001), with a less pronounced decline in An. arabiensis (9.18 vs 2.00, DR 0.15 95% CI: 0.07–0.33, p < 0.001). Conclusions LLIN distribution was associated with reductions in An. funestus s.l. in the lowest transmission site and An. gambiae s.s. in the moderate transmission site. In the highest transmission site, a combination of LLINs and multiple rounds of IRS was associated with the near collapse of An. gambiae s.s. and An. funestus s.l. Following IRS, An. arabiensis, a behaviourally resilient vector, became the predominant species, which may have implications for malaria vector control activities. Development of interventions targeted at outdoor biting remains a priority.


2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Varun Kumar ◽  
Abha Mangal ◽  
Sanjeet Panesar ◽  
Geeta Yadav ◽  
Richa Talwar ◽  
...  

Background. Malaria still remains a public health problem in developing countries and changing environmental and climatic factors pose the biggest challenge in fighting against the scourge of malaria. Therefore, the study was designed to forecast malaria cases using climatic factors as predictors in Delhi, India. Methods. The total number of monthly cases of malaria slide positives occurring from January 2006 to December 2013 was taken from the register maintained at the malaria clinic at Rural Health Training Centre (RHTC), Najafgarh, Delhi. Climatic data of monthly mean rainfall, relative humidity, and mean maximum temperature were taken from Regional Meteorological Centre, Delhi. Expert modeler of SPSS ver. 21 was used for analyzing the time series data. Results. Autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,0)12, was the best fit model and it could explain 72.5% variability in the time series data. Rainfall (P value = 0.004) and relative humidity (P value = 0.001) were found to be significant predictors for malaria transmission in the study area. Seasonal adjusted factor (SAF) for malaria cases shows peak during the months of August and September. Conclusion. ARIMA models of time series analysis is a simple and reliable tool for producing reliable forecasts for malaria in Delhi, India.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julie-Anne Tangena ◽  
Chantal Mechtildis Johanna Hendriks ◽  
Maria Devine ◽  
Meghan Tammaro ◽  
Anna Elizabeth Trett ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 155-164
Author(s):  
S Neupane ◽  
S Subedi

Population dynamics of lentil aphid Aphis craccivora (Hemiptera: Aphididae) was assessed in relation with climatic parameters at the research field of National Maize Research Program (NMRP), Rampur, Chitwan during winter season of two consecutive years 2016 to 2018. The experiment was organized in randomized complete block design consisting 20 lentil varieties with three replications. The crop was sown during last week of November in both the years. The daily meteorological parameters like maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), relative humidity (RH) and rainfall (Rf) were recorded at the meteorological station located in NMRP, Rampur, Chitwan and then converted into weekly basis as the standard meteorological week (SMW) with correspondence to weekly population of aphid. The incidence of aphid was started from 2nd SMW of January (2 aphid/plant/10 cm apical twigs) during both experimentation years. Initially the population was low and gradually increased and reached to its peak (49 aphid/plant/10cm apical twigs) on 9th SMW i.e. first week of March with correspondence to weather parameters viz. maximum and minimum temperature (°C), relative humidity (%) and rainfall (mm) were 30.80, 15.34, 67.72 and 0, respectively over the years. The aphid population had significant positive correlation with Tmax (r= 0.94) while the Tmin showed highly significant correlation (r=0.99). The relative humidity (RH) had non significant negative correlation (r= -0.90) and rainfall (Rf) showed non significant negative impact (r= - 0.15) with aphid population. The regression model developed could explain 99% variation in aphid population in different cultivars of lentil. SAARC J. Agri., 17(2): 155-164 (2019)


2022 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Adama Gansané ◽  
Baltazar Candrinho ◽  
Aimable Mbituyumuremyi ◽  
Perpetua Uhomoibhi ◽  
Sagnon NFalé ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Vector control tools have contributed significantly to a reduction in malaria burden since 2000, primarily through insecticidal-treated bed nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying. In the face of increasing insecticide resistance in key malaria vector species, global progress in malaria control has stalled. Innovative tools, such as dual active ingredient (dual-AI) ITNs that are effective at killing insecticide-resistant mosquitoes have recently been introduced. However, large-scale uptake has been slow for several reasons, including higher costs and limited evidence on their incremental effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. The present report describes the design of several observational studies aimed to determine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of dual-AI ITNs, compared to standard pyrethroid-only ITNs, at reducing malaria transmission across a variety of transmission settings. Methods Observational pilot studies are ongoing in Burkina Faso, Mozambique, Nigeria, and Rwanda, leveraging dual-AI ITN rollouts nested within the 2019 and 2020 mass distribution campaigns in each country. Enhanced surveillance occurring in select study districts include annual cross-sectional surveys during peak transmission seasons, monthly entomological surveillance, passive case detection using routine health facility surveillance systems, and studies on human behaviour and ITN use patterns. Data will compare changes in malaria transmission and disease burden in districts receiving dual-AI ITNs to similar districts receiving standard pyrethroid-only ITNs over three years. The costs of net distribution will be calculated using the provider perspective including financial and economic costs, and a cost-effectiveness analysis will assess incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for Interceptor® G2, Royal Guard®, and piperonyl butoxide ITNs in comparison to standard pyrethroid-only ITNs, based on incidence rate ratios calculated from routine data. Conclusions Evidence of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the dual-AI ITNs from these pilot studies will complement evidence from two contemporary cluster randomized control trials, one in Benin and one in Tanzania, to provide key information to malaria control programmes, policymakers, and donors to help guide decision-making and planning for local malaria control and elimination strategies. Understanding the breadth of contexts where these dual-AI ITNs are most effective and collecting robust information on factors influencing comparative effectiveness could improve uptake and availability and help maximize their impact.


2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 213-216
Author(s):  
Basil Brooke

The control of malaria transmitting mosquitoes hinges on accurate species identification. This enables assessments of insecticide susceptibilities and important behavioural characteristics (such as feeding and resting behaviours) by species, leading to the design of coherent insecticide-based control strategies that can be enhanced by additional methodologies for malaria elimination. Malaria is a mosquito-borne parasitic disease that affects many vertebrates including humans. Prior to the 20th century the human malarias (Plasmodium falciparum, P. vivax, P. malariae, P. ovale and P. knowlesi) occurred in tropical and temperate regions but their distribution has since reduced to the tropical belt with by far the highest incidence in sub-Saharan Africa. Global incidence for 2017 was estimated by the WHO at 219 million cases corresponding to 435 000 deaths. It is also estimated that investment in malaria control and elimination amounted to $3.1 billion in 2017. The control (and elimination) of malaria largely hinges on the suppression of mosquito vectors, accurate diagnosis and case detection, and case management using appropriate antimalarial drug regimens. Controlling malaria vector mosquitoes (and of course other mosquito-borne diseases) means being able to identify that which needs to be controlled. This is not unlike the maxim of knowing one's enemy, and disease vector control is often phrased in militaristic terms. The arsenal of tools in the war against malaria vectors includes insecticides, bed nets, repellents, larvicides, endectocides, toxic baits and even modified genes. This call to arms against the transmitters of a deadly disease presupposes that the enemy can be identified, which, unfortunately, is not as easy as it sounds. Identifying malaria vectors to species has posed a significant challenge ever since Ronald Ross and Giovanni Grassi implicated dappled-winged Anopheles mosquitoes in malaria transmission. They could not have known the Pandora's Box they had opened, because several Anopheles species are cryptic. Many hide in cryptic species complexes and groups that confound straightforward morphological methods of identifying them. A species complex is a group of morphologically identical species that are very closely related, but nevertheless vary significantly in their feeding and resting behaviours, and mate assortatively (i.e. they recognise and tend only to mate with conspecific partners) enough that hybridisations between them are rare. Many member species of these complexes are sufficiently diverged that cross-mating between them yields infertile or non-viable offspring, but not in all cases. A species group is a looser assortment of related species whose morphological features match to a point where they are very nearly identical, often requiring specimens from more than one life stage to identify them. They also mate assortatively, and hybrids are rarer or simply never occur. The problem for malaria control is that several vector species, including many primary vectors, are members of cryptic complexes or groups. These invariably contain vector and non-vector species, requiring a complex and laborious system to unravel them and ascribe unambiguous genetic methods for their identification. Added to this complexity is the possibility that any Anopheles. species that takes human blood is a potential vector of the human malarias, with the added caveat that not all populations within a species are vectors. Some member species, and even populations within a species, feed either exclusively on humans (anthropophagy) and are potentially high transmission intensity vectors, or exclusively on livestock animals (zoophagy) making them non-vectors, or take blood from a range of sources including humans, becoming potential vectors of low to medium transmission intensity. An added layer of complexity is genetic heterogeneity between populations within a species. It can be argued that this complexity is not necessarily a problem for malaria control. After all, the aim of suppressing or even eliminating vector populations is the interruption of transmission, regardless of what species they are. But mosquito adaptability dictates otherwise. This is because the primary method of malaria vector control is deployment of specially formulated insecticides against adult mosquitoes, either by indoor residual spraying (IRS) or the treatment of bed nets. Mosquito adaptability has enabled a powerful response to these interventions, with resistance to insecticides becoming so widespread that fully insecticide susceptible malaria vector populations are now quite rare.


2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julie-Anne A. Tangena ◽  
Chantal M. J. Hendriks ◽  
Maria Devine ◽  
Meghan Tammaro ◽  
Anna E. Trett ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 102-112
Author(s):  
Gonzalo M. Romano ◽  
Bernardo E. Lechner ◽  
Alina G. Greslebin

Forest management generates border effects in mature dense forests. How agaricoid fungi species react to this disturbance depends on climatic and site conditions, as well as forest management system used and its intensity. We compared abundance and richness of ectomycorrhizal and saprophytic species in managed and unmanaged stands in Nothofagus pumilio (Poepp. & Endl.) Krasser forests of Patagonia, Argentina. We found that basidiome abundance and richness of ectomycorrhizal and saprophytic species were favoured by different forest structure and climatic factors. Ectomycorrhizal species basidiome production was significantly correlated to mean relative humidity of the 15 days prior to sampling and tree density (number of trees per hectare) existing prior to management activities. The latter implies that the tree density an ecosystem is capable of sustaining is crucial to the establishment of ectomycorrhizal species. Saprophytic species were favoured by the increased amount of woody material generated by logging together with maximum temperature in the 15 days prior to sampling and mean annual precipitation. Our results indicate that agaricoid fungi are not affected by low- to medium-intensity forest management, establishing the forestry level that fungal community can tolerate without loss of species in Patagonia.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Onyango Sangoro ◽  
Ulrike Fillinger ◽  
Kochelani Saili ◽  
Theresia Estomih Nkya ◽  
Rose Marubu ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Concerted effort to control malaria has had a substantial impact on transmission of the disease in the past two decades. In areas where reduced malaria transmission is being sustained through insecticide-based vector control interventions, primarily long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), non-insecticidal complementary tools will likely be needed to push towards malaria elimination. Once interruption in local disease transmission is achieved, insecticide-based measures can be scaled down gradually and eventually phased out, saving on costs of sustaining control programmes and mitigating any unintended negative health and environmental impacts posed by insecticides. These non-insecticidal methods could eventually replace insecticidal methods of vector control. House screening, a non-insecticidal method, has a long history in malaria control, but is still not widely adopted in sub-Saharan Africa. This study aims to add to the evidence-base for this intervention in low transmission settings by assessing the efficacy, impact and feasibility of house screening in areas where LLINs are conventionally used for malaria control. Methods: A two-armed, household randomized clinical trial will be conducted in Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe to evaluate whether combined use of house screens and LLINs affords better protection against clinical malaria in children between 6 months and 13 years compared to the sole use of LLINs. Eight hundred households will be enrolled in each study area, where 400 households will be randomly assigned the intervention, house screening and LLINs while the control households will be provided with LLINs only. Clinical malaria incidence will be estimated by actively following up one child from each household for 6 months over the malaria transmission season. Cross-sectional parasite prevalence will be estimated by testing all participating children for malaria parasites at the beginning and end of each transmission season using rapid diagnostic tests.CDC light traps and pyrethrum spray catches (PSC) will be used to sample adult mosquitoes and evaluate the impact of house screening on indoor mosquito density, species distribution and sporozoite rates.Discussion: This study will contribute epidemiological data on the impact of house screening on malaria transmission and assess the feasibility of its implementation on a programmatic scale. Trial registration: This trial was retrospectively registered on 11th August 2020. Registration number PACTR202008524310568.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kinley Wangdi ◽  
Kinley Penjor ◽  
Tsheten Tsheten ◽  
Chachu Tshering ◽  
Peter Gething ◽  
...  

AbstractPneumonia is one of the top 10 diseases by morbidity in Bhutan. This study aimed to investigate the spatial and temporal trends and risk factors of childhood pneumonia in Bhutan. A multivariable Zero-inflated Poisson regression model using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation was undertaken to quantify associations of age, sex, altitude, rainfall, maximum temperature and relative humidity with monthly pneumonia incidence and to identify the underlying spatial structure of the data. Overall childhood pneumonia incidence was 143.57 and 10.01 per 1000 persons over 108 months of observation in children aged < 5 years and 5–14 years, respectively. Children < 5 years or male sex were more likely to develop pneumonia than those 5–14 years and females. Each 1 °C increase in maximum temperature was associated with a 1.3% (95% (credible interval [CrI] 1.27%, 1.4%) increase in pneumonia cases. Each 10% increase in relative humidity was associated with a 1.2% (95% CrI 1.1%, 1.4%) reduction in the incidence of pneumonia. Pneumonia decreased by 0.3% (CrI 0.26%, 0.34%) every month. There was no statistical spatial clustering after accounting for the covariates. Seasonality and spatial heterogeneity can partly be explained by the association of pneumonia risk to climatic factors including maximum temperature and relative humidity.


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