scholarly journals Threshold Selection for POT Framework in the Extreme Vehicle Loads Analysis Based on Multiple Criteria

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Guangrun Wu ◽  
Wenliang Qiu
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Value ◽  
Entropy Method ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Multiple Criteria ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Threshold Selection ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Extreme Load ◽  
Test Criteria ◽  
Vehicle Loads

Extreme value of vehicle load plays an important role in bridge design and risk assessment. Peaks over threshold (POT) is a method commonly used in extreme load estimation. The selection of thresholds for the POT method is extremely crucial, but the selected optimal threshold varies under different test criteria. Therefore, a method to select the suitable threshold is developed based on multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) in the paper. In MCDA, Chi-Square (χ2) test, Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K–S) test, and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) in probability distribution functions (PDF) are employed as the test criteria and the weight of these criteria is calculated using the entropy method. Finally, vehicle loads obtained from simulation and field measurement are adopted to validate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method. The results indicate that the proposed MCDA is a useful and complementary tool for threshold selection in the extreme value analysis.

scholarly journals Threshold selection in univariate extreme value analysis

Extremes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Fee Schneider ◽  
Andrea Krajina ◽  
Tatyana Krivobokova
Keyword(s):  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Hill Estimator ◽  
Small Samples ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Threshold Selection ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Asymptotic Mean Squared Error ◽  
The Hill

AbstractThreshold selection plays a key role in various aspects of statistical inference of rare events. In this work, two new threshold selection methods are introduced. The first approach measures the fit of the exponential approximation above a threshold and achieves good performance in small samples. The second method smoothly estimates the asymptotic mean squared error of the Hill estimator and performs consistently well over a wide range of processes. Both methods are analyzed theoretically, compared to existing procedures in an extensive simulation study and applied to a dataset of financial losses, where the underlying extreme value index is assumed to vary over time.

Modeling European hot spells using extreme value analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 58 (3) ◽  
pp. 193-207 ◽  
Author(s):  
C Photiadou ◽  
MR Jones ◽  
D Keellings ◽  
CF Dewes
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Value ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Hot Spells

Spatial stochastic simulation to aid local extreme value analysis of cyclone-induced wave heights when numerical hydrodynamic simulations are scarce

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy Rohmer ◽  
Rodrigo Pedreros ◽  
Yann Krien
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Stochastic Simulation ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Return Level ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Return Levels ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Local Extreme

<p>To estimate return levels of wave heights (Hs) induced by tropical cyclones at the coast, a commonly-used approach is to (1) randomly generate a large number of synthetic cyclone events (typically >1,000); (2) numerically simulate the corresponding Hs over the whole domain of interest; (3) extract the Hs values at the desired location at the coast and (4) perform the local extreme value analysis (EVA) to derive the corresponding return level. Step 2 is however very constraining because it often involves a numerical hydrodynamic simulator that can be prohibitive to run: this might limit the number of results to perform the local EVA (typically to several hundreds). In this communication, we propose a spatial stochastic simulation procedure to increase the database size of numerical results with synthetic maps of Hs that are stochastically generated. To do so, we propose to rely on a data-driven dimensionality-reduction method, either unsupervised (Principal Component Analysis) or supervised (Partial Least Squares Regression), that is trained with a limited number of pre-existing numerically simulated Hs maps. The procedure is applied to the Guadeloupe island and results are compared to the commonly-used approach applied to a large database of Hs values computed for nearly 2,000 synthetic cyclones (representative of 3,200 years – Krien et al., NHESS, 2015). When using only a hundred of cyclones, we show that the estimates of the 100-year return levels can be achieved with a mean absolute percentage error (derived from a bootstrap-based procedure) ranging between 5 and 15% around the coasts while keeping the width of the 95% confidence interval of the same order of magnitude than the one using the full database. Without synthetic Hs maps augmentation, the error and confidence interval width are both increased by nearly 100%. A careful attention is paid to the tuning of the approach by testing the sensitivity to the spatial domain size, the information loss due to data compression, and the number of cyclones. This study has been carried within the Carib-Coast INTERREG project (https://www.interreg-caraibes.fr/carib-coast).</p>

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