scholarly journals Analysis and Prediction on Vehicle Ownership Based on an Improved Stochastic Gompertz Diffusion Process

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huapu Lu ◽  
He Ma ◽  
Zhiyuan Sun ◽  
Jing Wang
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equation ◽  
Stochastic Differential Equation ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Vehicle Ownership ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Slow Increase ◽  
Gompertz Equation ◽  
Initial Stage ◽  
New Process ◽  
The Relationship

This paper aims at introducing a new improved stochastic differential equation related to Gompertz curve for the projection of vehicle ownership growth. This diffusion model explains the relationship between vehicle ownership and GDP per capita, which has been studied as a Gompertz-like function before. The main innovations of the process lie in two parts: by modifying the deterministic part of the original Gompertz equation, the model can present the remaining slow increase when the S-shaped curve has reached its saturation level; by introducing the stochastic differential equation, the model can better fit the real data when there are fluctuations. Such comparisons are carried out based on data from US, UK, Japan, and Korea with a time span of 1960–2008. It turns out that the new process behaves better in fitting curves and predicting short term growth. Finally, a prediction of Chinese vehicle ownership up to 2025 is presented with the new model, as China is on the initial stage of motorization with much fluctuations in growth.

Decline of Native Unionid Bivalves in Lake St. Clair After Infestation by the Zebra Mussel, Dreissena polymorpha

1994 ◽  
Vol 51 (10) ◽  
pp. 2227-2233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas F. Nalepa
Keyword(s):  
Zebra Mussel ◽  
Dreissena Polymorpha ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Light Weight ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Slow Increase ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Relationship

To determine impacts of the zebra mussel, Dreissena polymorpha, on bivalves in Lake St. Clair, densities of Unionidae in 1990 and 1992 (after D. polymorpha invasion) were compared with densities in 1986 (before D. polymorpha). Declines in density occurred mainly at sites in the southeastern portion of the lake where unionids were highly infested with D. polymorpha. Unionid densities at highly infested sites declined from 2.4/m2 in 1986, to 1.8/m2 in 1990, and to 0/m2 in 1992. Unionid species with light-weight shells that brood larvae over an extended period declined more between 1986 and 1990 than heavy-shelled, short-term brooders. Unionid densities at lightly infested sites located mainly in the northwestern portion of the lake did not decline: mean densities were 1.4/m2 in 1986, 1.6/m2 in 1990, and 1.4/m2 in 1992. While the mean number of D. polymorpha per unionid was <1 at these lightly infested sites in 1990, it increased to 35 by 1992. Given this relatively slow increase in D. polymorpha per unionid in this portion of the lake, continued monitoring of populations should provide a better understanding of the relationship between the extent of infestations and unionid mortality.

Evaluation of the Efficacy of ST2 and NT-proBNP in the Diagnosis and Prediction of Short- Term Prognosis in Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (04) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shivananda B Nayak ◽  
Dharindra Sawh ◽  
Brandon Scott ◽  
Vestra Sears ◽  
Kareshma Seebalack ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Ejection Fraction ◽  
Cardiac Biomarkers ◽  
Double Blind Study ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Double Blind ◽  
Reduced Ejection Fraction ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Design And Methods ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose: i) To determine the relationship between the cardiac biomarkers ST2 and NT-proBNP with ejection fraction (EF) in heart failure (HF) patients. ii) Assess whether a superiority existed between the aforementioned cardiac markers in diagnosing the HF with reduced EF. iii) Determine the efficacy of both biomarkers in predicting a 30-day cardiovascular event and rehospitalization in patients with HF with reduced EF iv) To assess the influence of age, gender, BMI, anaemia and renal failure on the ST2 and NT-proBNP levels. Design and Methods: A prospective double-blind study was conducted to obtain data from a sample of 64 cardiology patients. A blood sample was collected to test for ST2 and NT-proBNP. An echocardiogram (to obtain EF value), electrocardiogram and questionnaire were also obtained. Results: Of the 64 patients enrolled, 59.4% of the population had an EF less than 40%. At the end of the 30- day period, 7 patients were warded, 37 were not warded, one died and 17 were non respondent. Both biomarkers were efficacious at diagnosing HF with a reduced EF. However, neither of them were efficacious in predicting 30-day rehospitalization. The mean NT-proBNP values being: not rehospitalized (2114.7486) and 30 day rehospitalization (1008.42860) and the mean ST2 values being: not rehospitalized (336.1975), and 30-day rehospitalization. (281.9657). Conclusion: Neither ST2 or NT-proBNP was efficacious in predicting the short- term prognosis in HF with reduced EF. Both however were successful at confirming the diagnosis of HF in HF patients with reduced EF.

Plebiscitary Politics and the Threats to Legality

2019 ◽  
pp. 275-289
Author(s):  
Claudius Härpfer
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Political Processes ◽  
The Face ◽  
State Of Affairs ◽  
The Relationship

In recent times we find many plebiscitary acts that seek to democratically legitimize political processes in any direction. They have in common that they interrupt the normal routine of representative democracies to a certain degree and create an extra-daily state of affairs, which entails not only direct but also indirect consequences. The text attempts to systematize some of these mechanisms from a Weberian perspective using Brexit as an example. After a brief overview of Weber’s short-term politically inspired statements on plebiscitary democracy, the text systematizes Weber’s understanding of the state as a bureaucratic apparatus that requires any kind of leader to be controlled. Subsequently, the text discusses the relationship between domination, legality, and rationality in order to finally point out the danger of erosion of truth and legality through the emergence of competing consensus communities in the face of competing conceptions of order.

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