scholarly journals Application of Multi-Attribute Value Theory to Improve Cargo Delivery Planning in Disaster Aftermath

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Luísa Brandão Cavalcanti ◽  
André Bergsten Mendes ◽  
Hugo Tsugunobu Yoshida Yoshizaki
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Response ◽  
Operational Research ◽  
Value Theory ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Cargo Delivery ◽  
Alternative Generation ◽  
Delivery Planning ◽  
Theory Technique ◽  
Attribute Value

Although many Operational Research models have been applied to disaster response operations, few researchers aim at revealing Decision Makers’ goals or measuring their trade-offs. This article uses a holistic Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method to elucidate what objectives to pursue and to create appropriate strategies for planning vital items delivery to victims. We propose a framework for applying a Multi-Attribute Value Theory technique and test it with a humanitarian Decision Maker. The resulting mathematical model can be used to evaluate guidelines that make on-field decisions easier, improving (or at least not compromising) their outcomes. Our contribution to the MCDA field includes the documentation of an alternative generation methodology.

OP58 Testing Of A Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis Value Framework With Decision Makers Across Europe

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (S1) ◽  
pp. 25-26
Author(s):  
Aris Angelis ◽  
Mark Linch ◽  
Gilberto Montibeller ◽  
Teresa Molina-Lopez ◽  
Anna Zawada ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Relative Weight ◽  
Value Theory ◽  
Multiple Criteria ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis ◽  
Model Assessment ◽  
Value Assessment ◽  
Therapeutic Impact ◽  
Trade Offs

INTRODUCTION:We test in practice a Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework for the value assessment of a set of therapeutic options for the indication of hormone relapsed metastatic prostate cancer (mPC) through a series of simulation exercises with the participation of decision makers from different Health Technology Assessment (HTA)/insurance agencies across Europe, including TLV (Sweden), AETSA (Andalusia-Spain), INAMI-RIZIV (Belgium) and AOTMiT (Poland). The drugs evaluated were abiraterone, cabazitaxel and enzalutamide.METHODS:Using a multi-attribute value theory framework, past research outcomes and literature findings, an mPC-specific value tree was constructed incorporating relevant concerns as criteria. By adopting the MACBETH approach the different drugs were scored against the criteria through the development of value functions, relative weights were assigned to the criteria using a swing weighting technique, scores and weights were combined using an additive aggregation technique, and sensitivity analysis of results was conducted. All stages were informed through the participation of a small group of experts from each HTA/insurance agency at a series of decision conferences taking place in each country.RESULTS:Value parameters considered spanned the dimensions of therapeutic impact, safety profile, innovation level and socioeconomic impact. Overall weighted preference value scores were produced reflecting the performance of the treatments against the criteria while considering their relative importance. Order of treatments’ rankings was identical across all agencies, with enzalutamide scoring highest and cabazitaxel lowest. Therapeutic impact criteria always produced the greatest relative weight. Hypothetical priority setting decisions were made based on “value-for-money” grounds through the use of “cost per unit of value” metrics by incorporating purchasing costs.CONCLUSIONS:The MCDA framework tested possesses a number of characteristics that could facilitate decision making, including the systematic and explicit incorporation of value trade-offs as part of model assessment and the transparency throughout all its stages. Therefore, it has the prospects to act as a practical evaluation tool for value assessment and communication during the HTA process.

The Effects of Decision Time on Perceptions of Decisions and Decision Makers in (Moral) Trade-Off Scenarios

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Katharina Spälti ◽  
Mark John Brandt ◽  
Marcel Zeelenberg
Keyword(s):  
Decision Process ◽  
Decision Time ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Process Information ◽  
Total N ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Financial Gain ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Sacred Values ◽  
Moral Context

People often have to make trade-offs. We study three types of trade-offs: 1) "secular trade-offs" where no moral or sacred values are at stake, 2) "taboo trade-offs" where sacred values are pitted against financial gain, and 3) "tragic trade-offs" where sacred values are pitted against other sacred values. Previous research (Critcher et al., 2011; Tetlock et al., 2000) demonstrated that tragic and taboo trade-offs are not only evaluated by their outcomes, but are also evaluated based on the time it took to make the choice. We investigate two outstanding questions: 1) whether the effect of decision time differs for evaluations of decisions compared to decision makers and 2) whether moral contexts are unique in their ability to influence character evaluations through decision process information. In two experiments (total N = 1434) we find that decision time affects character evaluations, but not evaluations of the decision itself. There were no significant differences between tragic trade-offs and secular trade-offs, suggesting that the decisions structure may be more important in evaluations than moral context. Additionally, the magnitude of the effect of decision time shows us that decision time, may be of less practical use than expected. We thus urge, to take a closer examination of the processes underlying decision time and its perception.

scholarly journals From Bitcoin to Central Bank Digital Currencies: Making Sense of the Digital Money Revolution

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 165
Author(s):  
Paulo Rupino Cunha ◽  
Paulo Melo ◽  
Helder Sebastião
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Practical Implication ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Making Sense ◽  
Extensive Search ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Digital Money ◽  
Open Issues

We analyze the path from cryptocurrencies to official Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), to shed some light on the ultimate dematerialization of money. To that end, we made an extensive search that resulted in a review of more than 100 academic and grey literature references, including official positions from central banks. We present and discuss the characteristics of the different CBDC variants being considered—namely, wholesale, retail, and, for the latter, the account-based, and token-based—as well as ongoing pilots, scenarios of interoperability, and open issues. Our contribution enables decision-makers and society at large to understand the potential advantages and risks of introducing CBDCs, and how these vary according to many technical and economic design choices. The practical implication is that a debate becomes possible about the trade-offs that the stakeholders are willing to accept.

scholarly journals Using Deliberative Democracy for Better Urban Decision-Making through Integrative Thinking

Urban Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 3
Author(s):  
Janette Hartz-Karp ◽  
Dora Marinova
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Deliberative Democracy ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Capital City ◽  
City Region ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Urban Issues ◽  
Sustainability Challenges

This article expands the evidence about integrative thinking by analyzing two case studies that applied the collaborative decision-making method of deliberative democracy which encourages representative, deliberative and influential public participation. The four-year case studies took place in Western Australia, (1) in the capital city Perth and surrounds, and (2) in the city-region of Greater Geraldton. Both aimed at resolving complex and wicked urban sustainability challenges as they arose. The analysis suggests that a new way of thinking, namely integrative thinking, emerged during the deliberations to produce operative outcomes for decision-makers. Building on theory and research demonstrating that deliberative designs lead to improved reasoning about complex issues, the two case studies show that through discourse based on deliberative norms, participants developed different mindsets, remaining open-minded, intuitive and representative of ordinary people’s basic common sense. This spontaneous appearance of integrative thinking enabled sound decision-making about complex and wicked sustainability-related urban issues. In both case studies, the participants exhibited all characteristics of integrative thinking to produce outcomes for decision-makers: salience—grasping the problems’ multiple aspects; causality—identifying multiple sources of impacts; sequencing—keeping the whole in view while focusing on specific aspects; and resolution—discovering novel ways that avoided bad choice trade-offs.

A priori assessment of a smart-navigated unmanned aerial vehicle disaster cargo fleet

SIMULATION ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 96 (8) ◽  
pp. 641-653
Author(s):  
Jonathan Larson ◽  
Paul Isihara ◽  
Gabriel Flores ◽  
Edwin Townsend ◽  
Danilo R. Diedrichs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Response ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Geographic Distance ◽  
Field Tests ◽  
General Purpose ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Modeling And Analysis ◽  
Cargo Delivery

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs has asserted that risks in deployment of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) within disaster response must be reduced by careful development of best-practice standards before implementing such systems. With recent humanitarian field tests of cargo UAVs as indication that implementation may soon become reality, a priori assessment of a smart-navigated (autonomous) UAV disaster cargo fleet via simulation modeling and analysis is vital to the best-practice development process. Logistical problems with ground transport of relief supplies in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria (2017) pose a compelling use scenario for UAV disaster cargo delivery. In this context, we introduce a General Purpose Assessment Model (GPAM) that can estimate the potential effectiveness of a cargo UAV fleet for any given response region. We evaluate this model using the following standards: (i) realistic specifications; (ii) stable output for various realistic specifications; and (iii) support of humanitarian goals. To this end, we discuss data from humanitarian cargo delivery field tests and feedback from practitioners, perform sensitivity analyses, and demonstrate the advantage of using humanitarian rather than geographic distance in making fleet delivery assignments. We conclude with several major challenges faced by those who wish to implement smart-navigated UAV cargo fleets in disaster response, and the need for further GPAM development. This paper proposes the GPAM as a useful simulation tool to encourage and guide steps toward humanitarian use of UAVs for cargo delivery. The model’s flexibility can allow organizations to quickly and effectively determine how best to respond to disasters.

scholarly journals A Decision Model for Emergency Warehouse Location Based on a Novel Stochastic MCDA Method: Evidence from China

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junkang He ◽  
Chenpeng Feng ◽  
Dan Hu ◽  
Liang Liang
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Response ◽  
Decision Model ◽  
Complex Problem ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Location Decision ◽  
Preference Information ◽  
Inaccurate Information ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Warehouse Location ◽  
Method Evidence

China is one of the disaster-prone countries in the world. Constructing a rapid and effective relief logistic system is important for disaster-responding at country level. Strategic prepositioning of emergency items, especially the decision of appropriate emergency warehouses location, has significant impacts on rapid disaster response to ensure sufficient relief supplies. The emergency warehouse location decision is a complex problem, where a wide variety of criteria need to be considered and the preference information of decision makers (DMs) may be imprecise or even absent. In this paper, we identify key effectiveness-oriented criteria used to evaluate the alternative emergency warehouse locations and make an attempt to propose a new multicriteria ranking method to solve the problem of inaccurate or uncertain weight information based on stochastic pairwise dominant relations and the pruning procedure of ELECTRE-II method. The proposed method extends the conventional ELECTRE-II method by incorporating inaccurate information and broadens its application to emergency warehouse location field. The feasibility and applicability of the proposed method are illustrated with a simulated example.

Fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making to identify the order of establishing temporary logistics hubs during disaster response

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajali Maharjan ◽  
Shinya Hanaoka
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Disaster Response ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Numerical Illustration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Post Disaster

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to reveal the importance of the order of establishment of temporary logistics hubs (TLHs) when resources (mobile storage units used as TLHs) are limited and to present the development and implementation of a methodology that determines the order of establishment of TLHs to support post-disaster decision making. Design/methodology/approach It employed a decision support system that considers multiple decision makers and subjective attributes, while also addressing the impreciseness inherent in post-disaster decision making for ordering the establishment of TLHs. To do so, an optimization model was combined with a fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making approach. A numerical illustration was performed using data from the April 2015 Nepal Earthquake. Findings The results showed the location and order of establishment of TLHs, and demonstrated the impact of decision makers’ opinions on the overall ordering. Research limitations/implications The study does not discuss the uncertain nature of the location problem and the potential need for relocation of TLHs. Practical implications This methodology offers managerial insights for post-disaster decision making when resources are limited and their effective utilization is vital. The results highlight the importance of considering the opinions of multiple actors/decision makers to enable coordination and avoid complication between the growing numbers of humanitarian responders during disaster response. Originality/value This study introduces the concept of the order of establishment of TLHs and demonstrates its importance when resources are limited. It develops and implements a methodology determining the order of establishment of TLHs to support post-disaster decision making.

scholarly journals Understanding Managers’ Trade-Offs Between Exploration and Exploitation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alina Ferecatu ◽  
Arnaud De Bruyn
Keyword(s):  
Learning Model ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Exploration And Exploitation ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Exploration Exploitation

This paper develops a learning model to describe decision makers' exploration/exploitation trade-offs and their link to psychometric traits.

scholarly journals Robust Design of Relief Distribution Networks Considering Uncertainty

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 9281
Author(s):  
Moddassir Khan Nayeem ◽  
Gyu M. Lee
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Response ◽  
Transportation Cost ◽  
Distribution Networks ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Distribution Centers ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Relief Distribution ◽  
Secondary Disasters ◽  
Post Disaster

In the post-disaster response phase, an efficient relief distribution strategy plays a vital role in alleviating suffering in disaster-stricken areas, which sometimes becomes challenging in humanitarian logistics. Most governments pre-located the relief goods at the pre-determined warehouses against possible disasters. Those goods must be shipped to the relief distribution centers (RDCs) to be further distributed to the victims in impacted areas upon the disasters. Secondary disasters can occur due to the first disaster and can occur relatively close in time and location, resulting in more suffering and making the relief distribution activities more challenging. The needs of additional RDCs must be determined as well in response to the secondary disasters. A robust optimization model is proposed to hedge against uncertainties in RDCs’ capacity and relief demand. Its objective is to minimize the sum of transportation cost, additional RDC cost, and shortage of commodities. The computational results are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. The sensitivity analysis gives an insight to the decision-makers.

scholarly journals Comparing interactive evolutionary multiobjective optimization methods with an artificial decision maker

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bekir Afsar ◽  
Ana B. Ruiz ◽  
Kaisa Miettinen
Keyword(s):  
Multiobjective Optimization ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Optimization Problems ◽  
Optimization Methods ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Interactive Methods ◽  
Preference Information ◽  
Evolutionary Methods ◽  
Solution Processes ◽  
Trade Offs

AbstractSolving multiobjective optimization problems with interactive methods enables a decision maker with domain expertise to direct the search for the most preferred trade-offs with preference information and learn about the problem. There are different interactive methods, and it is important to compare them and find the best-suited one for solving the problem in question. Comparisons with real decision makers are expensive, and artificial decision makers (ADMs) have been proposed to simulate humans in basic testing before involving real decision makers. Existing ADMs only consider one type of preference information. In this paper, we propose ADM-II, which is tailored to assess several interactive evolutionary methods and is able to handle different types of preference information. We consider two phases of interactive solution processes, i.e., learning and decision phases separately, so that the proposed ADM-II generates preference information in different ways in each of them to reflect the nature of the phases. We demonstrate how ADM-II can be applied with different methods and problems. We also propose an indicator to assess and compare the performance of interactive evolutionary methods.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document