scholarly journals Stochastic Models of Emerging Infectious Disease Transmission on Adaptive Random Networks

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Navavat Pipatsart ◽  
Wannapong Triampo ◽  
Charin Modchang
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Random Network ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Transmission Probability ◽  
Stochastic Simulations ◽  
Random Networks ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Network Adaptation ◽  
Infectious Disease Dynamics

We presented adaptive random network models to describe human behavioral change during epidemics and performed stochastic simulations of SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) epidemic models on adaptive random networks. The interplay between infectious disease dynamics and network adaptation dynamics was investigated in regard to the disease transmission and the cumulative number of infection cases. We found that the cumulative case was reduced and associated with an increasing network adaptation probability but was increased with an increasing disease transmission probability. It was found that the topological changes of the adaptive random networks were able to reduce the cumulative number of infections and also to delay the epidemic peak. Our results also suggest the existence of a critical value for the ratio of disease transmission and adaptation probabilities below which the epidemic cannot occur.

scholarly journals Modeling Network Dynamics

2020 ◽  
pp. 145-171
Keyword(s):  
Communication Networks ◽  
Random Network ◽  
Network Dynamics ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Random Networks ◽  
Social Phenomena ◽  
Disease Propagation ◽  
The Social ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Model Dynamics

Social relationships and the social networks over these relationships do not occur arbitrarily. However, the random networks dealt with in this chapter are important tools for modeling the networks of these systems. The authors use random networks to understand and to model dynamics regarding the whole social structure. Random network models became the topic of several studies independently from social network analysis in the 1950s. These models were used in the analysis of a wide range of social and non-social phenomena, from electrical and communication networks to the speed and manner of disease propagation. This chapter explores the modeling network dynamics of random networks.

scholarly journals Disease transmission and introgression can explain the long-lasting contact zone of modern humans and Neanderthals

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gili Greenbaum ◽  
Wayne M. Getz ◽  
Noah A. Rosenberg ◽  
Marcus W. Feldman ◽  
Erella Hovers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Immune System ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Disease Burden ◽  
Species Interaction ◽  
Disease Dynamics ◽  
Modern Humans ◽  
Systems Models ◽  
Species Boundary ◽  
Infectious Disease Dynamics

Abstract Neanderthals and modern humans both occupied the Levant for tens of thousands of years prior to the spread of modern humans into the rest of Eurasia and their replacement of the Neanderthals. That the inter-species boundary remained geographically localized for so long is a puzzle, particularly in light of the rapidity of its subsequent movement. Here, we propose that infectious-disease dynamics can explain the localization and persistence of the inter-species boundary. We further propose, and support with dynamical-systems models, that introgression-based transmission of alleles related to the immune system would have gradually diminished this barrier to pervasive inter-species interaction, leading to the eventual release of the inter-species boundary from its geographic localization. Asymmetries between the species in the characteristics of their associated ‘pathogen packages’ could have generated feedback that allowed modern humans to overcome disease burden earlier than Neanderthals, giving them an advantage in their subsequent spread into Eurasia.

scholarly journals Computational Properties of General Indices on Random Networks

Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 1341 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Aguilar-Sánchez ◽  
I. F. Herrera-González ◽  
J. A. Méndez-Bermúdez ◽  
José M. Sigarreta
Keyword(s):  
Matrix Theory ◽  
Random Network ◽  
Scaling Law ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Network Size ◽  
Topological Indices ◽  
Random Networks ◽  
Theory Approach ◽  
Complexity Measures ◽  
Computational Properties

We perform a detailed (computational) scaling study of well-known general indices (the first and second variable Zagreb indices, M1α(G) and M2α(G), and the general sum-connectivity index, χα(G)) as well as of general versions of indices of interest: the general inverse sum indeg index ISIα(G) and the general first geometric-arithmetic index GAα(G) (with α∈R). We apply these indices on two models of random networks: Erdös–Rényi (ER) random networks GER(nER,p) and random geometric (RG) graphs GRG(nRG,r). The ER random networks are formed by nER vertices connected independently with probability p∈[0,1]; while the RG graphs consist of nRG vertices uniformly and independently distributed on the unit square, where two vertices are connected by an edge if their Euclidean distance is less or equal than the connection radius r∈[0,2]. Within a statistical random matrix theory approach, we show that the average values of the indices normalized to the network size scale with the average degree k of the corresponding random network models, where kER=(nER−1)p and kRG=(nRG−1)(πr2−8r3/3+r4/2). That is, X(GER)/nER≈X(GRG)/nRG if kER=kRG, with X representing any of the general indices listed above. With this work, we give a step forward in the scaling of topological indices since we have found a scaling law that covers different network models. Moreover, taking into account the symmetries of the topological indices we study here, we propose to establish their statistical analysis as a generic tool for studying average properties of random networks. In addition, we discuss the application of specific topological indices as complexity measures for random networks.

scholarly journals Revealing mechanisms of infectious disease transmission through empirical contact networks

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pratha Sah ◽  
Michael Otterstatter ◽  
Stephan T. Leu ◽  
Sivan Leviyang ◽  
Shweta Bansal
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Pathogen Transmission ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Contact Networks ◽  
Transmission Mechanisms ◽  
Disease Information ◽  
Crithidia Bombi ◽  
Transmission Pathways

AbstractThe spread of pathogens fundamentally depends on the underlying contacts between individuals. Modeling infectious disease dynamics through contact networks is sometimes challenging, however, due to a limited understanding of pathogen transmission routes and infectivity. We developed a novel tool, INoDS (Identifying Network models of infectious Disease Spread) that estimates the predictive power of empirical contact networks to explain observed patterns of infectious disease spread. We show that our method is robust to partially sampled contact networks, incomplete disease information, and enables hypothesis testing on transmission mechanisms. We demonstrate the applicability of our method in two host-pathogen systems: Crithidia bombi in bumble bee colonies and Salmonella in wild Australian sleepy lizard populations. The performance of INoDS in synthetic and complex empirical systems highlights its role in identifying transmission pathways of novel or neglected pathogens, as an alternative approach to laboratory transmission experiments, and overcoming common data-collection constraints.

scholarly journals Network assessment and modeling the management of an epidemic on a college campus with testing, contact tracing, and masking

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregg Hartvigsen
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Liberal Arts ◽  
Transmission Probability ◽  
College Campus ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Random Networks ◽  
Residential College ◽  
Testing Frequency ◽  
Disease Agent ◽  
Path Lengths

There remains a great challenge to minimize the spread of epidemics. This may be particularly true on densely populated, residential college campuses. To construct class and residential networks I used data from a four-year, residential liberal arts college with 5539 students. Equal-sized random networks also were created for each day. Different levels of compliance with mask use (none to 100%), mask efficacy (50% to 100%), and testing frequency (daily, or every 2, 3, 7, 14, 28, or 105 days) were assessed. Tests were assumed to be only 90% accurate and positive results were used to isolate individuals. I also tested the effectiveness of contact tracing and subsequent quarantining of neighbors of infectious individuals. I used class enrollment and residence data from a college with 5539 students to analyze network structure and test the epidemic potential of the infectious disease agent SARS-CoV-2. Average path lengths were longer in the college networks compared to random networks. Students in larger majors generally had shorter average path lengths. Average transitivity (clustering) was lower on days when students most frequently were in class (MWF). Degree distributions were generally large and right skewed, ranging from 0 to 719. Simulations began by inoculating twenty students (10 exposed and 10 infectious) with SARS-CoV-2 on the first day of the fall semester and ended once the disease was cleared. Transmission probability was calculated based on an R0 = 2:4. Without interventions epidemics resulted in most students becoming infected and lasted into the second semester. On average students in the college networks experienced fewer infections, shorter duration, and lower epidemic peaks that occurred compared to dynamics on equal-sized random networks. The most important factors in reducing case numbers were the proportion masking and the frequency of testing, followed by contact tracing and mask efficacy. The paper discusses further high-order interactions and other implications of non-pharmaceutical interventions for disease transmission on a residential college campus.

scholarly journals Network assessment and modeling the management of an epidemic on a college campus with testing, contact tracing, and masking

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. e0257052
Author(s):  
Gregg Hartvigsen
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Liberal Arts ◽  
Transmission Probability ◽  
College Campus ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Random Networks ◽  
Course Enrollment ◽  
Residential College ◽  
Testing Frequency ◽  
Path Lengths

There remains a great challenge to minimize the spread of epidemics, especially in high-density communities such as colleges and universities. This is particularly true on densely populated, residential college campuses. To construct class and residential networks data from a four-year, residential liberal arts college with 5539 students were obtained from SUNY College at Geneseo, a rural, residential, undergraduate institution in western NY, USA. Equal-sized random networks also were created for each day. Different levels of compliance with mask use (none to 100%), mask efficacy (50% to 100%), and testing frequency (daily, or every 2, 3, 7, 14, 28, or 105 days) were assessed. Tests were assumed to be only 90% accurate and positive results were used to isolate individuals. The effectiveness of contact tracing, and the effect of quarantining neighbors of infectious individuals, was tested. The structure of the college course enrollment and residence networks greatly influenced the dynamics of the epidemics, as compared to the random networks. In particular, average path lengths were longer in the college networks compared to random networks. Students in larger majors generally had shorter average path lengths than students in smaller majors. Average transitivity (clustering) was lower on days when students most frequently were in class (MWF). Degree distributions were generally large and right skewed, ranging from 0 to 719. Simulations began by inoculating twenty students (10 exposed and 10 infectious) with SARS-CoV-2 on the first day of the fall semester and ended once the disease was cleared. Transmission probability was calculated based on an R0 = 2.4. Without interventions epidemics resulted in most students becoming infected and lasted into the second semester. On average students in the college networks experienced fewer infections, shorter duration, and lower epidemic peaks when compared to the dynamics on equal-sized random networks. The most important factors in reducing case numbers were the proportion masking and the frequency of testing, followed by contact tracing and mask efficacy. The paper discusses further high-order interactions and other implications of non-pharmaceutical interventions for disease transmission on a residential college campus.

Application of Lattice Imaging Techniques to Amorphous Films

1975 ◽  
Vol 33 ◽  
pp. 8-9
Author(s):  
S. R. Herd ◽  
P. Chaudhari
Keyword(s):  
Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Random Network ◽  
Imaging Techniques ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Accurate Method ◽  
Direct Transmission ◽  
Lattice Imaging ◽  
Transmission Electron ◽  
Lattice Planes ◽  
Nearest Neighbor Distances

Electron diffraction and direct transmission have been used extensively to study the local atomic arrangement in amorphous solids and in particular Ge. Nearest neighbor distances had been calculated from E.D. profiles and the results have been interpreted in terms of the microcrystalline or the random network models. Direct transmission electron microscopy appears the most direct and accurate method to resolve this issue since the spacial resolution of the better instruments are of the order of 3Å. In particular the tilted beam interference method is used regularly to show fringes corresponding to 1.5 to 3Å lattice planes in crystals as resolution tests.

Travel Connectivity and Infectious Disease Transmission Risks in Oceania

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela Maria Cadavid Restrepo ◽  
Luis Furuya-Kanamori ◽  
Helen Mayfield ◽  
Eric J. Nilles ◽  
Colleen L. Lau
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Infectious Disease Transmission

scholarly journals Modelling spreading of an infection using time series by a novel family of models; fitting the time series of the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (s1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Babak Jamshidi ◽  
Shahriar Jamshidi Zargaran ◽  
Mansour Rezaei
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
The Novel ◽  
New Family ◽  
Two Samples ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Number Of Individuals

AbstractIntroductionTime series models are one of the frequently used methods to describe the pattern of spreading an epidemic.MethodsWe presented a new family of time series models able to represent the cumulative number of individuals that contracted an infectious disease from the start to the end of the first wave of spreading. This family is flexible enough to model the propagation of almost all infectious diseases. After a general discussion on competent time series to model the outbreak of a communicable disease, we introduced the new family through one of its examples.ResultsWe estimated the parameters of two samples of the novel family to model the spreading of COVID-19 in China.DiscussionOur model does not work well when the decreasing trend of the rate of growth is absent because it is the main presumption of the model. In addition, since the information on the initial days is of the utmost importance for this model, one of the challenges about this model is modifying it to get qualified to model datasets that lack the information on the first days.

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