scholarly journals The Determination of Feasible Control Variables for Geoengineering and Weather Modification Based on the Theory of Sensitivity in Dynamical Systems

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei A. Soldatenko ◽  
Rafael M. Yusupov
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Baroclinic Instability ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Weather Modification ◽  
Control Variables ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Human Operators

Geophysical cybernetics allows for exploring weather and climate modification (geoengineering) as an optimal control problem in which the Earth’s climate system is considered as a control system and the role of controller is given to human operators. In mathematical models used in climate studies control actions that manipulate the weather and climate can be expressed via variations in model parameters that act as controls. In this paper, we propose the “instability-sensitivity” approach that allows for determining feasible control variables in geoengineering. The method is based on the sensitivity analysis of mathematical models that describe various types of natural instability phenomena. The applicability of this technique is illustrated by a model of atmospheric baroclinic instability since this physical mechanism plays a significant role in the general circulation of the atmosphere and, consequently, in climate formation. The growth rate of baroclinic unstable waves is taken as an indicator of control manipulations. The information obtained via calculated sensitivity coefficients is very beneficial for assessing the physical feasibility of methods of control of the large-scale atmospheric dynamics and for designing optimal control systems for climatic processes. It also provides insight into potential future changes in baroclinic waves, as a result of a changing climate.

scholarly journals An Optimal Control Perspective on Weather and Climate Modification

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 305
Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Rafael Yusupov
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Dynamical Systems ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Weather Modification ◽  
Atmospheric Sciences ◽  
Atmospheric Processes ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Earth’S Climate

Intentionally altering natural atmospheric processes using various techniques and technologies for changing weather patterns is one of the appropriate human responses to climate change and can be considered a rather drastic adaptation measure. A fundamental understanding of the human ability to modify weather conditions requires collaborative research in various scientific fields, including, but not limited to, atmospheric sciences and different branches of mathematics. This article being theoretical and methodological in nature, generalizes and, to some extent, summarizes our previous and current research in the field of climate and weather modification and control. By analyzing the deliberate change in weather and climate from an optimal control and dynamical systems perspective, we get the ability to consider the modification of natural atmospheric processes as a dynamic optimization problem with an emphasis on the optimal control problem. Within this conceptual and unified theoretical framework for developing and synthesizing an optimal control for natural weather phenomena, the atmospheric process in question represents a closed-loop dynamical system described by an appropriate mathematical model or, in other words, by a set of differential equations. In this context, the human control actions can be described by variations of the model parameters selected on the basis of sensitivity analysis as control variables. Application of the proposed approach to the problem of weather and climate modification is illustrated using a low-order conceptual model of the Earth’s climate system. For the sake of convenient interpretation, we provide some weather and climate basics, as well as we give a brief glance at control theory and sensitivity analysis of dynamical systems.

scholarly journals Synoptic Responses to Mountain Gravity Waves Encountering Directional Critical Levels

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 828-848 ◽  
Author(s):  
Armel Martin ◽  
François Lott
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Waves ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Baroclinic Instability ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Critical Levels ◽  
Sensitivity Tests ◽  
Large Scale Flow

Abstract A heuristic model is used to study the synoptic response to mountain gravity waves (GWs) absorbed at directional critical levels. The model is a semigeostrophic version of the Eady model for baroclinic instability adapted by Smith to study lee cyclogenesis. The GWs exert a force on the large-scale flow where they encounter directional critical levels. This force is taken into account in the model herein and produces potential vorticity (PV) anomalies in the midtroposphere. First, the authors consider the case of an idealized mountain range such that the orographic variance is well separated between small- and large-scale contributions. In the absence of tropopause, the PV produced by the GW force has a surface impact that is significant compared to the surface response due to the large scales. For a cold front, the GW force produces a trough over the mountain and a larger-amplitude ridge immediately downstream. It opposes somehow to the response due to the large scales of the mountain range, which is anticyclonic aloft and cyclonic downstream. For a warm front, the GW force produces a ridge over the mountain and a trough downstream; hence it reinforces the response due to the large scales. Second, the robustness of the previous results is verified by a series of sensitivity tests. The authors change the specifications of the mountain range and of the background flow. They also repeat some experiments by including baroclinic instabilities, or by using the quasigeostrophic approximation. Finally, they consider the case of a small-scale orographic spectrum representative of the Alps. The significance of the results is discussed in the context of GW parameterization in the general circulation models. The results may also help to interpret the complex PV structures occurring when mountain gravity waves break in a baroclinic environment.

scholarly journals Weather and Climate Manipulation as an Optimal Control for Adaptive Dynamical Systems

Complexity ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei A. Soldatenko
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical System ◽  
Optimal Control ◽  
Control Problem ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Atmospheric Dynamics ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Chaotic Dynamical System ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Earth’S Climate ◽  
Climate Manipulation

The weather and climate manipulation is examined as an optimal control problem for the earth climate system, which is considered as a complex adaptive dynamical system. Weather and climate manipulations are actually amorphous operations. Since their objectives are usually formulated vaguely, the expected results are fairly unpredictable and uncertain. However, weather and climate modification is a purposeful process and, therefore, we can formulate operations to manipulate weather and climate as the optimization problem within the framework of the optimal control theory. The complexity of the earth’s climate system is discussed and illustrated using the simplified low-order coupled chaotic dynamical system. The necessary conditions of optimality are derived for the large-scale atmospheric dynamics. This confirms that even a relatively simplified control problem for the atmospheric dynamics requires significant efforts to obtain the solution.

Eddy–Zonal Flow Interactions and the Persistence of the Zonal Index

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (9) ◽  
pp. 3296-3311 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edwin P. Gerber ◽  
Geoffrey K. Vallis
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Annular Modes ◽  
Zonal Index ◽  
Flow Interactions

Abstract An idealized atmospheric general circulation model is used to investigate the factors controlling the time scale of intraseasonal (10–100 day) variability of the extratropical atmosphere. Persistence on these time scales is found in patterns of variability that characterize meridional vacillations of the extratropical jet. Depending on the degree of asymmetry in the model forcing, patterns take on similar properties to the zonal index, annular modes, and North Atlantic Oscillation. It is found that the time scale of jet meandering is distinct from the obvious internal model time scales, suggesting that interaction between synoptic eddies and the large-scale flow establish a separate, intraseasonal time scale. A mechanism is presented by which eddy heat and momentum transport couple to retard motion of the jet, slowing its meridional variation and thereby extending the persistence of zonal index and annular mode anomalies. The feedback is strong and quite sensitive to model parameters when the model forcing is zonally uniform. However, the time scale of jet variation drops and nearly all sensitivity to parameters is lost when zonal asymmetries, in the form of topography and thermal perturbations that approximate land–sea contrast, are introduced. A diagnostic on the zonal structure of the zonal index provides intuition on the physical nature of the index and annular modes and hints at why zonal asymmetries limit the eddy–mean flow interactions.

Numerical Methods of Modeling Atmospheric Circulation and Its Physical Processes

2017 ◽  
pp. 261-367
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Methods ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Stationary Problem ◽  
Significant Progress ◽  
Numerical Techniques ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Thermodynamic Processes

The last decades are characterized by significant progress in the development and operational use of modern numerical hydrodynamic methods of the Earth's weather and climate. This was made possible primarily due to modern understanding of the laws governing the basic physical and thermodynamic processes in the atmosphere and the emergence of more advanced mathematical models and effective methods of their implementation. In this chapter, we develop new numerical techniques used to solve the non-stationary problem of general circulation of the atmosphere with a prehistory and the problem of planetary weather forecast.

scholarly journals 100 Years of Progress in Understanding the General Circulation of the Atmosphere

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 ◽  
pp. 6.1-6.23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isaac M. Held
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Baroclinic Instability ◽  
Wave Theory ◽  
Stationary Wave ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Eddy Heat Flux ◽  
Primary Focus ◽  
Transformed Eulerian Mean

Abstract Some of the advances of the past century in our understanding of the general circulation of the atmosphere are described, starting with a brief summary of some of the key developments from the first half of the twentieth century, but with a primary focus on the period beginning with the midcentury breakthrough in baroclinic instability and quasigeostrophic dynamics. In addition to baroclinic instability, topics touched upon include the following: stationary wave theory, the role played by the two-layer model, scaling arguments for the eddy heat flux, the subtlety of large-scale eddy momentum fluxes, the Eliassen–Palm flux and the transformed Eulerian mean formulation, the structure of storm tracks, and the controls on the Hadley cell.

scholarly journals Mesoscale cascades and the conundrum of energy transfer from large to dissipation scales in an adiabatic ocean

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikhail S. Dubovikov
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Baroclinic Instability ◽  
Mesoscale Eddy ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Buoyancy Frequency ◽  
Rossby Number ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Small Scales ◽  
The Mean

Abstract. A well-known conundrum in ocean dynamics has been expressed as follows: How does the energy of the general circulation cascade from the large climate scales, where most of it is generated, to the small scales, where all of it is dissipated? In particular, how is the dynamical transition made from an anisotropic, 2D-like, geostrophic cascade at large scales-with its strong inhibition of down-scale energy flux-to 3D-like, down-scale cascades at small scales. (Muller, McWilliams and Molemaker, 2002). To study this as yet unsolved problem, we introduce in the analysis a dynamical consideration based on the mesoscale model developed by Dubovikov (2003) and Canuto and Dubovikov (2005) within which in a quasi-adiabatic ocean interior the large scale baroclinic instability generates mesoscale eddy potential energy (EPE) at scales of the Rossby deformation radius ~ rd. Since at those scales the mesoscale Rossby number is small, the generated EPE cannot convert into eddy kinetic energy (EKE) and cascades to smaller scales at which the spectral Rossby number Ro(k) increases until at some horizontal scales ~ ℓ it reaches Ro(1 / ℓ)~ 1. Under this condition, EPE converts into EKE and thus the cascade of the former terminates while the inverse EKE cascade begins. At scales ~ rd the inverse EKE cascade terminates and reinforces the EPE cascade produced by the large scale baroclinic instability thus closing the mesoscale energy cycle. If the flow were exactly adiabatic, i.e. eddy energy were not dissipated, the latter would increase unlimitedly at the expense of the permanent production of the total eddy energy (TEE) by the mean flow. However, at the same scales ~ ℓ where the EPE cascade terminates and the inverse EKE cascade begins, the vertical eddy shear reaches the value of the buoyancy frequency N that gives rise to the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability. The latter generates the stratified turbulence which finally dissipates EKE. A steady state regime sets in when the dissipation balances the TEE production by the mean flow.

scholarly journals Statistical Approach to Incorporating Experimental Variability into a Mathematical Model of the Voltage-Gated Na+ Channel and Human Atrial Action Potential

Cells ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 1516
Author(s):  
Daniel Gratz ◽  
Alexander J Winkle ◽  
Seth H Weinberg ◽  
Thomas J Hund
Keyword(s):  
Action Potential ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Cardiac Myocyte ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Na Channel ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Healthy Population ◽  
Experimental Measurements ◽  
Voltage Gated ◽  
Experimental Variability

The voltage-gated Na+ channel Nav1.5 is critical for normal cardiac myocyte excitability. Mathematical models have been widely used to study Nav1.5 function and link to a range of cardiac arrhythmias. There is growing appreciation for the importance of incorporating physiological heterogeneity observed even in a healthy population into mathematical models of the cardiac action potential. Here, we apply methods from Bayesian statistics to capture the variability in experimental measurements on human atrial Nav1.5 across experimental protocols and labs. This variability was used to define a physiological distribution for model parameters in a novel model formulation of Nav1.5, which was then incorporated into an existing human atrial action potential model. Model validation was performed by comparing the simulated distribution of action potential upstroke velocity measurements to experimental measurements from several different sources. Going forward, we hope to apply this approach to other major atrial ion channels to create a comprehensive model of the human atrial AP. We anticipate that such a model will be useful for understanding excitability at the population level, including variable drug response and penetrance of variants linked to inherited cardiac arrhythmia syndromes.

scholarly journals Why ability point estimates can be pointless: a primer on using skill measures from large-scale assessments in secondary analyses

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Clemens M. Lechner ◽  
Nivedita Bhaktha ◽  
Katharina Groskurth ◽  
Matthias Bluemke
Keyword(s):  
Measurement Error ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Test Scores ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Point Estimates ◽  
Secondary Analyses ◽  
Large Scale Assessments

AbstractMeasures of cognitive or socio-emotional skills from large-scale assessments surveys (LSAS) are often based on advanced statistical models and scoring techniques unfamiliar to applied researchers. Consequently, applied researchers working with data from LSAS may be uncertain about the assumptions and computational details of these statistical models and scoring techniques and about how to best incorporate the resulting skill measures in secondary analyses. The present paper is intended as a primer for applied researchers. After a brief introduction to the key properties of skill assessments, we give an overview over the three principal methods with which secondary analysts can incorporate skill measures from LSAS in their analyses: (1) as test scores (i.e., point estimates of individual ability), (2) through structural equation modeling (SEM), and (3) in the form of plausible values (PVs). We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each method based on three criteria: fallibility (i.e., control for measurement error and unbiasedness), usability (i.e., ease of use in secondary analyses), and immutability (i.e., consistency of test scores, PVs, or measurement model parameters across different analyses and analysts). We show that although none of the methods are optimal under all criteria, methods that result in a single point estimate of each respondent’s ability (i.e., all types of “test scores”) are rarely optimal for research purposes. Instead, approaches that avoid or correct for measurement error—especially PV methodology—stand out as the method of choice. We conclude with practical recommendations for secondary analysts and data-producing organizations.

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