scholarly journals Time Series Analysis and Forecasting for Wind Speeds Using Support Vector Regression Coupled with Artificial Intelligent Algorithms

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ping Jiang ◽  
Shanshan Qin ◽  
Jie Wu ◽  
Beibei Sun
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Wind Turbines ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Hybrid Models ◽  
Parameter Determination ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speeds

Wind speed/power has received increasing attention around the earth due to its renewable nature as well as environmental friendliness. With the global installed wind power capacity rapidly increasing, wind industry is growing into a large-scale business. Reliable short-term wind speed forecasts play a practical and crucial role in wind energy conversion systems, such as the dynamic control of wind turbines and power system scheduling. In this paper, an intelligent hybrid model for short-term wind speed prediction is examined; the model is based on cross correlation (CC) analysis and a support vector regression (SVR) model that is coupled with brainstorm optimization (BSO) and cuckoo search (CS) algorithms, which are successfully utilized for parameter determination. The proposed hybrid models were used to forecast short-term wind speeds collected from four wind turbines located on a wind farm in China. The forecasting results demonstrate that the intelligent hybrid models outperform single models for short-term wind speed forecasting, which mainly results from the superiority of BSO and CS for parameter optimization.

scholarly journals Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Using Support Vector Regression Optimized by Cuckoo Optimization Algorithm

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianzhou Wang ◽  
Qingping Zhou ◽  
Haiyan Jiang ◽  
Ru Hou
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Optimization Algorithm ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Hypothesis Test ◽  
Recurrence Plot ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cuckoo Optimization Algorithm ◽  
Input Variables

This paper develops an effectively intelligent model to forecast short-term wind speed series. A hybrid forecasting technique is proposed based on recurrence plot (RP) and optimized support vector regression (SVR). Wind caused by the interaction of meteorological systems makes itself extremely unsteady and difficult to forecast. To understand the wind system, the wind speed series is analyzed using RP. Then, the SVR model is employed to forecast wind speed, in which the input variables are selected by RP, and two crucial parameters, including the penalties factor and gamma of the kernel function RBF, are optimized by various optimization algorithms. Those optimized algorithms are genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO), and cuckoo optimization algorithm (COA). Finally, the optimized SVR models, including COA-SVR, PSO-SVR, and GA-SVR, are evaluated based on some criteria and a hypothesis test. The experimental results show that (1) analysis of RP reveals that wind speed has short-term predictability on a short-term time scale, (2) the performance of the COA-SVR model is superior to that of the PSO-SVR and GA-SVR methods, especially for the jumping samplings, and (3) the COA-SVR method is statistically robust in multi-step-ahead prediction and can be applied to practical wind farm applications.

scholarly journals Development of an SVR Model for the Fault Diagnosis of Large-Scale Doubly-Fed Wind Turbines Using SCADA Data

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 3396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingzhu Tang ◽  
Wei Chen ◽  
Qi Zhao ◽  
Huawei Wu ◽  
Wen Long ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fault Diagnosis ◽  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Wind Turbines ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Effective Response ◽  
Support Vector Regression Model ◽  
Doubly Fed

Fault diagnosis and forecasting contribute significantly to the reduction of operating and maintenance associated costs, as well as to improve the resilience of wind turbine systems. Different from the existing fault diagnosis approaches using monitored vibration and acoustic data from the auxiliary equipment, this research presents a novel fault diagnosis and forecasting approach underpinned by a support vector regression model using data obtained by the supervisory control and data acquisition system (SCADA) of wind turbines (WT). To operate, the extraction of fault diagnosis features is conducted by measuring SCADA parameters. After that, confidence intervals are set up to guide the fault diagnosis implemented by the support vector regression (SVR) model. With the employment of confidence intervals as the performance indicators, an SVR-based fault detecting approach is then developed. Based on the WT SCADA data and the SVR model, a fault diagnosis strategy for large-scale doubly-fed wind turbine systems is investigated. A case study including a one-year monitoring SCADA data collected from a wind farm in Southern China is employed to validate the proposed methodology and demonstrate how it works. Results indicate that the proposed strategy can support the troubleshooting of wind turbine systems with high precision and effective response.

Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Prediction Using Fuzzy Information Granulation-Support Vector Machine

2012 ◽  
Vol 608-609 ◽  
pp. 814-817
Author(s):  
Xiao Fu ◽  
Dong Xiang Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Fuzzy Information ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Power Fluctuation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Information Granulation ◽  
Fuzzy Information Granulation

The power fluctuation of wind turbine often causes serious problems in electricity grids. Therefore, short term prediction of wind speed and power as to eliminate the uncertainty determined crucially the development of wind energy. Compared with physical methods, support vector machine (SVM) as an intelligent artificial method is more general and shows better nonlinear modeling capacity. A model which combined fuzzy information granulation with SVM method was developed and implemented in short term future trend prediction of wind speed and power. The data, including the daily wind speed and power, from a wind farm in northern China were used to evaluate the proposed method. The prediction results show that the proposed model performs better and more stable than the standard SVM model when apply them into the same data set.

scholarly journals Results from a wake-steering experiment at a commercial wind plant: investigating the wind speed dependence of wake-steering performance

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 1427-1453
Author(s):  
Eric Simley ◽  
Paul Fleming ◽  
Nicolas Girard ◽  
Lucas Alloin ◽  
Emma Godefroy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Wind Turbines ◽  
Wind Direction ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Poor Performance ◽  
Power Production ◽  
Wind Rose ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Variability Model

Abstract. Wake steering is a wind farm control strategy in which upstream wind turbines are misaligned with the wind to redirect their wakes away from downstream turbines, thereby increasing the net wind plant power production and reducing fatigue loads generated by wake turbulence. In this paper, we present results from a wake-steering experiment at a commercial wind plant involving two wind turbines spaced 3.7 rotor diameters apart. During the 3-month experiment period, we estimate that wake steering reduced wake losses by 5.6 % for the wind direction sector investigated. After applying a long-term correction based on the site wind rose, the reduction in wake losses increases to 9.3 %. As a function of wind speed, we find large energy improvements near cut-in wind speed, where wake steering can prevent the downstream wind turbine from shutting down. Yet for wind speeds between 6–8 m/s, we observe little change in performance with wake steering. However, wake steering was found to improve energy production significantly for below-rated wind speeds from 8–12 m/s. By measuring the relationship between yaw misalignment and power production using a nacelle lidar, we attribute much of the improvement in wake-steering performance at higher wind speeds to a significant reduction in the power loss of the upstream turbine as wind speed increases. Additionally, we find higher wind direction variability at lower wind speeds, which contributes to poor performance in the 6–8 m/s wind speed bin because of slow yaw controller dynamics. Further, we compare the measured performance of wake steering to predictions using the FLORIS (FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State) wind farm control tool coupled with a wind direction variability model. Although the achieved yaw offsets at the upstream wind turbine fall short of the intended yaw offsets, we find that they are predicted well by the wind direction variability model. When incorporating the expected yaw offsets, estimates of the energy improvement from wake steering using FLORIS closely match the experimental results.

scholarly journals Results from a Wake Steering Experiment at a Commercial Wind Plant: Investigating the Wind Speed Dependence of Wake Steering Performance

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Simley ◽  
Paul Fleming ◽  
Nicolas Girard ◽  
Lucas Alloin ◽  
Emma Godefroy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Wind Turbines ◽  
Wind Direction ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Poor Performance ◽  
Power Production ◽  
Wind Rose ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Variability Model

Abstract. Wake steering is a wind farm control strategy in which upstream wind turbines are misaligned with the wind to redirect their wakes away from downstream turbines, thereby increasing the net wind plant power production and reducing fatigue loads generated by wake turbulence. In this paper, we present results from a wake steering experiment at a commercial wind plant involving two wind turbines spaced 3.7 rotor diameters apart. During the three-month experiment period, we estimate that wake steering reduced wake losses by 5.7 % for the wind direction sector investigated. After applying a long-term correction based on the site wind rose, the reduction in wake losses increases to 9.8 %. As a function of wind speed, we find large energy improvements near cut-in wind speed, where wake steering can prevent the downstream wind turbine from shutting down. Yet for wind speeds between 6–8 m/s, we observe little change in performance with wake steering. However, wake steering was found to improve energy production significantly for below-rated wind speeds from 8–12 m/s. By measuring the relationship between yaw misalignment and power production using a nacelle lidar, we attribute much of the improvement in wake steering performance at higher wind speeds to a significant reduction in the power loss of the upstream turbine as wind speed increases. Additionally, we find higher wind direction variability at lower wind speeds, which contributes to poor performance in the 6–8 m/s wind speed bin because of slow yaw controller dynamics. Further, we compare the measured performance of wake steering to predictions using the FLORIS (FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State) wind farm control tool coupled with a wind direction variability model. Although the achieved yaw offsets at the upstream wind turbine fall short of the intended yaw offsets, we find that they are predicted well by the wind direction variability model. When incorporating the predicted achieved yaw offsets, estimates of the energy improvement from wake steering using FLORIS closely match the experimental results.

scholarly journals Sample Selection Based on Active Learning for Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Yang ◽  
Xin Zhao ◽  
Haikun Wei ◽  
Kanjian Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Active Learning ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Sample Selection ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Training Samples ◽  
Speed Prediction

Wind speed prediction is the key to wind power prediction, which is very important to guarantee the security and stability of the power system. Due to dramatic changes in wind speed, it needs high-frequency sampling to describe the wind. A large number of samples are generated and affect modeling time and accuracy. Therefore, two novel active learning methods with sample selection are proposed for short-term wind speed prediction. The main objective of active learning is to minimize the number of training samples and ensure the prediction accuracy. In order to verify the validity of the proposed methods, the results of support vector regression (SVR) and artificial neural network (ANN) models with different training sets are compared. The experimental data are from a wind farm in Jiangsu Province. The simulation results show that the two novel active learning methods can effectively select typical samples. While reducing the number of training samples, the prediction performance remains almost the same or slightly improved.

Noise model based ν-support vector regression with its application to short-term wind speed forecasting

2014 ◽  
Vol 57 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinghua Hu ◽  
Shiguang Zhang ◽  
Zongxia Xie ◽  
Jusheng Mi ◽  
Jie Wan
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Noise Model ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Model Based

Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction on Base of Improved Least Squares Support Vector Machine

2014 ◽  
Vol 599-601 ◽  
pp. 1972-1975
Author(s):  
Zheng Zhao ◽  
Long Xin Zhang ◽  
Hai Tao Liu ◽  
Zi Rui Liu
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Neural Network Prediction ◽  
Speed Prediction

Accurate wind speed prediction is of significance to improve the ability to coordinate operation of a wind farm with a power system and ensure the safety of power grid operation. According to the randomness and volatility of wind speed, it is put forward that a WD_GA_LS_SVM short-term wind speed combination prediction model on basis of Wavelet decomposition (WD), Genetic alogorithms (GA) optimization and Least squares support vector machine (LS_SVM). Short-term wind speed prediction is carried out and compared with the neural network prediction model with use of the measured data of a wind farm. The results of error analysis indicate the combination prediction model selected is of higher prediction accuracy.

Improving short-term wind power forecasts during ramp events by including nacelle wind speed observations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moritz Lochmann ◽  
Heike Kalesse-Los ◽  
Michael Schäfer ◽  
Ingrid Heinrich ◽  
Ronny Leinweber
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Energy ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Mean Deviation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Sonic Anemometers ◽  
Ramp Events

<p>Wind energy is and will be one of the key technologies for a transition to green electricity. However, the smooth integration of the generated wind energy into the electrical grid depends on reliable power forecasts. Rapid changes in power generation, so-called ramps, are not always reflected properly in NWP data and pose a challenge for power predictions and, therefore, grid operation. While contributions to the topic of ramp forecasting increased in the recent years, this work approaches the mitigation of deviations from the forecast more directly.</p> <p>The power forecast tool used here is based on an artificial neural network, trained and evaluated on multiple years of data. It is applied in comparison to power generation data for a 44 MW wind farm in Brandenburg. For short-term wind power forecasts, NWP wind speeds in this power forecast tool are replaced with recent Doppler Lidar wind profiles and nacelle wind speed observations from ultra-sonic anemometers, aiming to provide an easy-to-implement way to reduce negative impacts of ramps. Compared to NWP input data, this persistence approach with observational data aims to improve the forecast quality especially during the time of wind ramps.</p> <p>Different ramp definitions and forecast horizons are explored. In general, the number of ramps detected increases dramatically when using wind speed observations instead of the (too smooth) NWP model data. In addition, the mean deviation between power forecast and actual power generation around ramp events decreases, indicating a reduced need for balancing efforts.</p>

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