scholarly journals Predictive Modeling in Race Walking

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Wiktorowicz ◽  
Krzysztof Przednowek ◽  
Lesław Lassota ◽  
Tomasz Krzeszowski
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Error ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Lasso Regression ◽  
Training Process ◽  
Nonlinear Part ◽  
Race Walking ◽  
Multivariable Models ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Leave One Out

This paper presents the use of linear and nonlinear multivariable models as tools to support training process of race walkers. These models are calculated using data collected from race walkers’ training events and they are used to predict the result over a 3 km race based on training loads. The material consists of 122 training plans for 21 athletes. In order to choose the best model leave-one-out cross-validation method is used. The main contribution of the paper is to propose the nonlinear modifications for linear models in order to achieve smaller prediction error. It is shown that the best model is a modified LASSO regression with quadratic terms in the nonlinear part. This model has the smallest prediction error and simplified structure by eliminating some of the predictors.

scholarly journals Estimation of suspended sediment and dissolved solid load in a Mediterranean semiarid karst stream using log-linear models

2018 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Martínez-Salvador ◽  
Carmelo Conesa-García
Keyword(s):  
Sediment Transport ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Base Flow ◽  
Solid Load ◽  
Log Linear ◽  
Leave One Out ◽  
Southeast Spain

Abstract Many models have been developed to predict the sediment transport in watercourses. This paper attempts to test the effectiveness of log-linear models (LLM) to estimate the suspended (S-LMM), dissolved (D-LLM), and total suspended (T-LLM) load into a Mediterranean semiarid karst stream (the Argos River basin, in southeast Spain). An assessment of the supposed validity of each model and a leave-one-out cross-validation were carried out to determine their degree of statistical robustness. The T-LLM model showed higher prediction accuracy (R2 = 0.98, RMSE = 0.15, and PE = ±5.4–6.6%) than the D-LLM model (R2 = 0.97, RMSE = 0.16, and PE = ±5.5–6.8%) or the D-LLM model (R2 = 0.77, RMSE = 0.71, and PE = ±101–493%). In addition, different model variants, according to two flow patterns (FP1 = base flow and FP2 = rising water level), were developed. The FP2-SLLM model provided a very good fit (R2 = 0.94, RMSE = 0.34, and PE = ±25.3–61.5%), substantially improving the results of the S-LLM model.

On Cross Validation for Model Selection

1999 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 863-870 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabelle Rivals ◽  
Léon Personnaz
Keyword(s):  
Model Selection ◽  
Nonlinear Model ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Free Lunch ◽  
Leave One Out ◽  
No Free Lunch ◽  
Selection Of

In response to Zhu and Rower (1996), a recent communication (Goutte, 1997) established that leave-one-out cross validation is not subject to the “no-free-lunch” criticism. Despite this optimistic conclusion, we show here that cross validation has very poor performances for the selection of linear models as compared to classic statistical tests. We conclude that the statistical tests are preferable to cross validation for linear as well as for nonlinear model selection.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE WIND SPEED PREDICTION ERROR ON THE SIZE OF THE STORAGE CONTROLLED OPERATION ZONE IN THE SYSTEM WITH THE WIND GENERATOR

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (57) ◽  
pp. 35-41
Author(s):  
K.S. Klen ◽  
◽  
M.K. Yaremenko ◽  
V.Ya. Zhuykov ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Prediction Error ◽  
Average Energy ◽  
Interpolation Formula ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Wind Generator ◽  
Prediction Horizon ◽  
Speed Prediction ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Predictor Corrector

The article analyzes the influence of wind speed prediction error on the size of the controlled operation zone of the storage. The equation for calculating the power at the output of the wind generator according to the known values of wind speed is given. It is shown that when the wind speed prediction error reaches a value of 20%, the controlled operation zone of the storage disappears. The necessity of comparing prediction methods with different data discreteness to ensure the minimum possible prediction error and determining the influence of data discreteness on the error is substantiated. The equations of the "predictor-corrector" scheme for the Adams, Heming, and Milne methods are given. Newton's second interpolation formula for interpolation/extrapolation is given at the end of the data table. The average relative error of MARE was used to assess the accuracy of the prediction. It is shown that the prediction error is smaller when using data with less discreteness. It is shown that when using the Adams method with a prediction horizon of up to 30 min, within ± 34% of the average energy value, the drive can be controlled or discharged in a controlled manner. References 13, figures 2, tables 3.

Mapping Arctic clam abundance using multiple datasets, models, and a spatially explicit accuracy assessment

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (7) ◽  
pp. 2349-2361
Author(s):  
Benjamin Misiuk ◽  
Trevor Bell ◽  
Alec Aitken ◽  
Craig J Brown ◽  
Evan N Edinger
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Autocorrelation ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Accuracy Assessment ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Seabed Topography ◽  
Leave One Out

Abstract Species distribution models are commonly used in the marine environment as management tools. The high cost of collecting marine data for modelling makes them finite, especially in remote locations. Underwater image datasets from multiple surveys were leveraged to model the presence–absence and abundance of Arctic soft-shell clam (Mya spp.) to support the management of a local small-scale fishery in Qikiqtarjuaq, Nunavut, Canada. These models were combined to predict Mya abundance, conditional on presence throughout the study area. Results suggested that water depth was the primary environmental factor limiting Mya habitat suitability, yet seabed topography and substrate characteristics influence their abundance within suitable habitat. Ten-fold cross-validation and spatial leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO CV) were used to assess the accuracy of combined predictions and to test whether this was inflated by the spatial autocorrelation of transect sample data. Results demonstrated that four different measures of predictive accuracy were substantially inflated due to spatial autocorrelation, and the spatial LOO CV results were therefore adopted as the best estimates of performance.

Educational Homogamy Among Married and Unmarried Couples in Europe

2008 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dana Hamplova
Keyword(s):  
Linear Models ◽  
Married Couples ◽  
European Social Survey ◽  
Social Survey ◽  
Educational Homogamy ◽  
Educational Barriers ◽  
Educational Groups ◽  
Institutional Contexts ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Log Linear

In this article, educational homogamy among married and cohabiting couples in selected European countries is examined. Using data from two waves (2002 and 2004) of the European Social Survey, this article compares three cultural and institutional contexts that differ in terms of institutionalization of cohabitation. Evidence from log-linear models yields two main conclusions. First, as cohabitation becomes more common in society, marriage and cohabitation become more similar with respect to partner selection. Second, where married and unmarried unions differ in terms of educational homogamy, married couples have higher odds of overcoming educational barriers (i.e., intermarrying with other educational groups).

scholarly journals QSPR study on the gas/particle partition coefficient of PCBs by using molecular distance-edge vector index

2014 ◽  
Vol 79 (8) ◽  
pp. 965-975 ◽  
Author(s):  
Long Jiao ◽  
Xiaofei Wang ◽  
LI. Hua ◽  
Yunxia Wang
Keyword(s):  
Partition Coefficient ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Quantitative Relationship ◽  
Structure Property ◽  
Prediction Ability ◽  
Vector Index ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Leave One Out ◽  
Edge Vector

The quantitative structure property relationship (QSPR) for gas/particle partition coefficient, Kp, of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) was investigated. Molecular distance-edge vector (MDEV) index was used as the structural descriptor of PCBs. The quantitative relationship between the MDEV index and log Kp was modeled by multivariate linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) respectively. Leave one out cross validation and external validation were carried out to assess the prediction ability of the developed models. When the MLR method is used, the root mean square relative error (RMSRE) of prediction for leave one out cross validation and external validation is 4.72 and 8.62 respectively. When the ANN method is employed, the prediction RMSRE of leave one out cross validation and external validation is 3.87 and 7.47 respectively. It is demonstrated that the developed models are practicable for predicting the Kp of PCBs. The MDEV index is shown to be quantitatively related to the Kp of PCBs.

scholarly journals Study onYang-XuUsing Body Constitution Questionnaire and Blood Variables in Healthy Volunteers

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong-Jhang Chen ◽  
Yii-Jeng Lin ◽  
Pei-Chen Wu ◽  
Wei-Hsiang Hsu ◽  
Wan-Chung Hu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Healthy Subjects ◽  
Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Blood Biomarkers ◽  
Metabolic Characteristics ◽  
Body Constitution ◽  
Leave One Out ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Fold Cross Validation ◽  
Blood Variables

Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) formulates treatment according to body constitution (BC) differentiation. Different constitutions have specific metabolic characteristics and different susceptibility to certain diseases. This study aimed to assess theYang-Xuconstitution using a body constitution questionnaire (BCQ) and clinical blood variables. A BCQ was employed to assess the clinical manifestation ofYang-Xu. The logistic regression model was conducted to explore the relationship between BC scores and biomarkers. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) and K-fold cross-validation were performed to evaluate the accuracy of a predictive model in practice. Decision trees (DTs) were conducted to determine the possible relationships between blood biomarkers and BC scores. According to the BCQ analysis, 49% participants without any BC were classified as healthy subjects. Among them, 130 samples were selected for further analysis and divided into two groups. One group comprised healthy subjects without any BC (68%), while subjects of the other group, named as the sub-healthy group, had three BCs (32%). Six biomarkers, CRE, TSH, HB, MONO, RBC, and LH, were found to have the greatest impact on BCQ outcomes inYang-Xusubjects. This study indicated significant biochemical differences inYang-Xusubjects, which may provide a connection between blood variables and theYang-XuBC.

Evaluation of Safety Performance Functions Based on Experimental Design Using a Cross-Validation Method

2017 ◽  
Vol 2636 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jung-Han Wang ◽  
Mohamed A. Abdel-Aty ◽  
Jaeyoung Lee
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Major Road ◽  
Highway Safety Manual ◽  
Annual Average Daily Traffic ◽  
Minor Road ◽  
Safety Performance Functions ◽  
The One ◽  
Leave One Out

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) Part C provides a series of safety performance functions (SPFs) for different roadway conditions. The SPFs suggested in the HSM are formulated on the basis of exposure variables: the logarithms of the annual average daily traffic (AADT) on the major road and on the minor road under the base condition. In this research, data from 7,802 intersections in Florida were collected and processed. These intersections were categorized into seven types based on area type (rural or urban), number of legs (three or four), and number of approaches controlled by stop signs. Twenty-two SPF formulations, including the one suggested by the HSM, were developed for each intersection type for examination of the goodness-of-fit measures of the SPFs. In addition, the goodness of fit of each model of the 22 SPFs in each category was examined with 10-fold leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV). With a comparison of the delta values generated with the LOOCV method, it is suggested that the SPF with the logarithm of the total entering vehicle volume and the ratio of the AADT on the minor road and the AADT on the major road are important. In addition, the SPFs with the AADT on the major road and the AADT on the minor road and their logarithmic transformations are also important. Therefore, it is suggested that the future HSM compare these two SPF formulations—as suggested in the current research, along with the original SPF formulation in the manual—and select the one with the best model fit on the basis of the delta value using LOOCV.

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