scholarly journals Using a Novel Grey System Model to Forecast Natural Gas Consumption in China

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lifeng Wu ◽  
Sifeng Liu ◽  
Haijun Chen ◽  
Na Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Grey Model ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Grey Forecasting ◽  
Grey Forecasting Model ◽  
Energy Needs ◽  
New Information ◽  
Gas Consumption

Accurate prediction of the future energy needs is crucial for energy management. This work presents a novel grey forecasting model that integrates the principle of new information priority into accumulated generation. This grey model can better reflect the priority of the new information theoretically. The results of two practical examples demonstrate that this grey model provides very remarkable short-term predication performance compared with traditional grey forecasting model for limited data set forecasting. It is applied to Chinese gas consumption forecasting to show its superiority and applicability.

scholarly journals Forecasting Carbon Dioxide Emissions for Singapore using Grey Model with Cramer’s Rule

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 437-445
Author(s):  
Assif Shamim Mustaffa Sulaiman ◽  
Ani Shabri
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Fossil Carbon ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Grey Forecasting ◽  
Grey Forecasting Model ◽  
Cramer’S Rule

This article analyses and forecasts carbon dioxide () emissions in Singapore for the 2012 to 2016 period. The study analysed the data using grey forecasting model with Cramer’s rule to calculate the best SOGM(2,1) model with the highest accuracy of precision compared to conventional grey forecasting model. According to the forecasted result, the fitted values using SOGM(2,1) model has a higher accuracy precision with better capability in handling information to fit larger scale of uncertain feature compared to other conventional grey forecasting models. This article offers insightful information to policymakers in Singapore to develop better renewable energy instruments to combat the greater issues of global warming and reducing the fossil carbon dioxide emissions into the environment.

Audit report forecast: an application of nonlinear grey Bernoulli model

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 295-311 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahdi Salehi ◽  
Nastaran Dehnavi
Keyword(s):  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Bernoulli Model ◽  
Audit Report ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Widespread Application ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Grey Forecasting ◽  
Grey Forecasting Model ◽  
Audit Reports ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The widespread application of traditional grey model (GM) in different academic fields such as electrical engineering, education, mechanical engineering and agriculture provided the authors with an incentive to conduct the present empirical research in an accounting field, in particular, auditing practice. In this regard, the purpose of this paper is to employ the nonlinear type of the original GM to forecast the drastically changed data on audit reports, primarily due to the fact that the linear nature of GM is unable to forecast nonlinear data precisely. In essence, this paper adds value to the strand of audit report literature by examining the impact of different financial ratios on auditors’ opinion and then forecasting audit reports by employing GMs. Design/methodology/approach The grey forecasting model is known as a system containing uncertain information presented by grey numbers, equations and matrices. The grey forecasting model is employed by using a differential equation in an uncertain system with limited data set which is suitable for smoothing discrete data. In addition, the analyses are conducted by applying a sample of top 50 listed companies on the Tehran Stock Exchange during 2011-2016. Findings The findings suggest that audit reports are most influenced by the current ratio and conversely, least influenced by the ratio of working capital turnover. Moreover, the authors argue that the Nash nonlinear grey Bernoulli model is more precise than the nonlinear grey Bernoulli model and GM in forecasting audit reports. Originality/value The current study may give more strength to stakeholders in order to analyse and forecast audit report.

Study of a discrete grey forecasting model based on the quality cost characteristic curve

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 376-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenjie Dong ◽  
Sifeng Liu ◽  
Zhigeng Fang ◽  
Xiaoyu Yang ◽  
Qian Hu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Quality Level ◽  
Cost Models ◽  
Quality Cost ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Grey Forecasting ◽  
Grey Forecasting Model

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to clarify several commonly used quality cost models based on Juran’s characteristic curve. Through mathematical deduction, the lowest point of quality cost and the lowest level of quality level (often depicted by qualification rate) can be obtained. This paper also aims to introduce a new prediction model, namely discrete grey model (DGM), to forecast the changing trend of quality cost. Design/methodology/approach This paper comes to the conclusion by means of mathematical deduction. To make it more clear, the authors get the lowest quality level and the lowest quality cost by taking the derivative of the equation of quality cost and quality level. By introducing the weakening buffer operator, the authors can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of DGM. Findings This paper demonstrates that DGM can be used to forecast quality cost based on Juran’s cost characteristic curve, especially when the authors do not have much information or the sample capacity is rather small. When operated by practical weakening buffer operator, the randomness of time series can be obviously weakened and the prediction accuracy can be significantly improved. Practical implications This paper uses a real case from a literature to verify the validity of discrete grey forecasting model, getting the conclusion that there is a certain degree of feasibility and rationality of DGM to forecast the variation tendency of quality cost. Originality/value This paper perfects the theory of quality cost based on Juran’s characteristic curve and expands the scope of application of grey system theory.

A comparative study of univariate models for container throughput forecasting of major ports in Asia

2021 ◽  
pp. 147509022110236
Author(s):  
Juan Huang ◽  
Ching-Wu Chu ◽  
Hsiu-Li Hsu
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Port Authorities ◽  
Grey Forecasting ◽  
Grey Forecasting Model ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Trigonometric Regression

This study aims to make comparisons on different univariate forecasting methods and provides a more accurate short-term forecasting model on the container throughput for rendering a reference to relevant authorities. We collected monthly data regarding container throughput volumes for three major ports in Asia, Shanghai, Singapore, and Busan Ports. Six different univariate methods, including the grey forecasting model, the hybrid grey forecasting model, the multiplicative decomposition model, the trigonometric regression model, the regression model with seasonal dummy variables, and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, were used. We found that the hybrid grey forecasting model outperforms the other univariate models. This study’s findings can provide a more accurate short-term forecasting model for container throughput to create a reference for port authorities.

Vulnerability of hydropower generation to climate change in China: Results based on Grey forecasting model

Energy Policy ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 65 ◽  
pp. 701-707 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bing Wang ◽  
Xiao-Jie Liang ◽  
Hao Zhang ◽  
Lu Wang ◽  
Yi-Ming Wei
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Hydropower Generation ◽  
Grey Forecasting ◽  
Grey Forecasting Model
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