scholarly journals Investment Timing and Capacity Choice under Uncertainty

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Xiumei Lv ◽  
Shiqin Xu ◽  
Xiaoling Tang
Keyword(s):  
Real Option ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Value Functions ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Strategic Investment ◽  
Investment Timing ◽  
Choice Under Uncertainty ◽  
Capacity Choice ◽  
The Face ◽  
Stochastic Market

This paper examines strategic investment between two firms that compete not only for investment timing but also for capacity under stochastic market demand. The value functions of real option for the follower, the dominant leader, and the preemptive leader are derived and their investment decisions are investigated. It finds that both firms will delay investment and the delayed margin of the follower will surpass that of the leader under greater uncertainty. Furthermore, both firms will provide more outputs in the face of increasing uncertainty and the growth rate of the follower’s capacity will exceed that of the leader’s. In addition, this paper finds that the follower will end up with a larger capacity than the leader.

Project portfolio valuation using real options

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 126-146
Author(s):  
A.B. Lanchakov ◽  
S.A. Filin ◽  
A.Zh. Yakushev
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Project Portfolio ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Expected Effect ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Financial Options ◽  
Portfolio Efficiency ◽  
The Face ◽  
Effective Development

Subject. The article analyzes the expected effect of a portfolio of projects in the face of risk and uncertainty, when using real options. Objectives. The purpose is to offer a more objective formula to assess the expected impact of a portfolio of projects for real investment objects under risk and uncertainty, using real options, and provide recommendations for improving the portfolio efficiency. Methods. The study draws on methods of real options and evaluation of investment projects through the real option value, the cash flow discounting method, synthesis, and mathematical modeling. Results. We systematized the main types of real options and developed a formula for calculating the expected effect of project portfolio implementation. The said formula shows that considering the additional long-term costs embedded in a portfolio of real options, which are associated with the use of these real options, and, therefore, reducing the overall risk of projects and the entire portfolio, permit to improve the objectivity of such calculations. Conclusions. When analyzing real options that have real assets as underlying instruments, it is often impossible to apply the computational formulae for financial options, as they differ significantly. The systematization of the main types of real options helps expand the range of application of management solutions. The offered formula enables to improve the efficiency of project insurance under risk and uncertainty and to use additional opportunities for effective development of the company.

Price and subsidy under uncertainty: Real-option approach to optimal investment decisions on energy storage with solar PV

2021 ◽  
pp. 0958305X2199229
Author(s):  
Jingyu Qu ◽  
Wooyoung Jeon
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Storage ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Financial Burden ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Investment Incentives ◽  
Solar Pv ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Trigger Price

Renewable generation sources still have not achieved economic validity in many countries including Korea, and require subsidies to support the transition to a low-carbon economy. An initial Feed-In Tariff (FIT) was adopted to support the deployment of renewable energy in Korea until 2011 and then was switched to the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) to implement more market-oriented mechanisms. However, high volatilities in electricity prices and subsidies under the RPS scheme have weakened investment incentives. In this study we estimate how the multiple price volatilities under the RPS scheme affect the optimal investment decisions of energy storage projects, whose importance is increasing rapidly because they can mitigate the variability and uncertainty of solar and wind generation in the power system. We applied mathematical analysis based on real-option methods to estimate the optimal trigger price for investment in energy-storage projects with and without multiple price volatilities. We found that the optimal trigger price of subsidy called the Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) under multiple price volatilities is 10.5% higher than that under no price volatilities. If the volatility of the REC price gets doubled, the project requires a 26.6% higher optimal investment price to justify the investment against the increased risk. In the end, we propose an auction scheme that has the advantage of both RPS and FIT in order to minimize the financial burden of the subsidy program by eliminating subsidy volatility and find the minimum willingness-to-accept price for investors.

scholarly journals Capacity Choice and Government Regulation in a Vertical Industry

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 513-524
Author(s):  
Junlong Chen ◽  
Yajie Wang ◽  
Jiali Liu
Keyword(s):  
Social Welfare ◽  
Government Regulation ◽  
Market Competition ◽  
Excess Capacity ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Government Failure ◽  
Regulatory Policies ◽  
The Social ◽  
Capacity Choice ◽  
The Government

This paper sets up an industry competition model consisting of two upstream enterprises and two downstream enterprises. Then we rely on the model to explore how non-regulation and different regulatory policies (maximizing the total profits of the upstream enterprises, the social welfare of the upstream industry or the overall social welfare) affect the following factors: the excess capacity, enterprise profits, consumer surpluses, social welfare in the upstream and downstream enterprises and the overall social welfare. The following conclusions are drawn from our research. First, whether and how the government regulates the capacity choice greatly affect the equilibrium outcomes, as well as the welfare distribution among the upstream enterprises, downstream enterprises, and consumers. The specific effects are dependent on market demand and enterprise cost. Second, the government should formulate its regulatory policies on capacity choice based on the overall social welfare of the entire supply chain. If the government aims to maximize the profits of the upstream enterprises, the social welfare of the downstream industry will be negatively affected. Third, excess capacity does not necessarily suppress social welfare. Under certain conditions, the worst scenario of excess capacity may occur under the pursuit of the maximal overall social welfare. Excess capacity may arise from various causes, rather than market competition or government regulation alone. Excess capacity cannot be attributed solely to government failure. These conclusions have some significance for optimizing capacity regulation policies.

Strategic IT Investment Decisions

2011 ◽  
pp. 3589-3593
Author(s):  
Tzu-Chuan Chou ◽  
Robert G. Dyson ◽  
Philip L. Powell
Keyword(s):  
Organizational Performance ◽  
Decision Process ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Decision Processes ◽  
It Investment ◽  
Strategic Investment ◽  
Integrative Framework ◽  
Concept Of Information ◽  
Information Intensity

As many as half the decisions taken in organizations result in failure (Nutt, 1999). As information technology (IT) assumes a greater prominence in firms’ strategic portfolios, managers need to pay more attention to managing the technology. However, while IT can have a significant impact on organizational performance, it can also be a major inhibitor of change and can be a resource-hungry investment that often disappoints. Organizations can best influence the success of IT projects at the decision stage by rejecting poor ones and accepting beneficial ones. This may enable better implementation, as Nutt (1999) suggests most decision failures are due to implementation failure that tends to be under managers’ control. However, little is known about IT decision processes. Research demonstrates the importance of managing strategic IT investment decisions (SITIDs) effectively. SITIDs form part of the wider range of corporate strategic investment decisions (SIDs) that cover all aspects in which the organization might wish to invest. Strategic investment decisions will have different degrees of IT intensity that may impact outcome. IT investment intensity is the degree to which IT is present in an investment decision. That is, some decisions will be wholly about IT investments while others will have little or no IT—most, though, will be blended programs of IT and non-IT elements. Here, IT investment intensity is defined as the ratio of IT spending to total investment. The higher the IT investment intensity, the more important IT is to the whole investment. For example, Chou, Dyson, and Powell (1997) find IT investment intensity to be negatively associated with SID effectiveness. The concept of IT intensity is similar to, but also somewhat different from, the concept of information intensity. Information intensity is the degree to which information is present in the product or service (Porter & Millar, 1985). Management may use different processes in order to make different types of decisions (Dean & Sharfman, 1996). The link between decision process and outcome is so intimate that “the process is itself an outcome” (Mohr, 1982, p. 34). This may imply that the link between IT investment intensity and SID effectiveness is not direct but that the impact of IT investment intensity may be through the decision process. If different IT intensity in projects leads to different decision processes, leading to different outcomes, then it is important to know what factors act in this, in evaluating and managing SITIDs. This chapter presents an integrative framework for exploring the IT investment intensity-SID effectiveness relationship.

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