scholarly journals Population Projections for Sparsely Populated Areas: Reconciling “Error” and Context

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Northern Territory ◽  
Relative Accuracy ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
The North ◽  
Fit For Purpose ◽  
Alternative Approaches ◽  
Over Time

Population projections are increasingly utilised as tools for understanding and modelling the economic, social, and environmental futures of sparsely populated areas. This study examines issues around “fit for purpose” for the application of projections to remote contexts. We focus on projections made for the Northern Territory of Australia, a jurisdiction in the north of the country, to assess the relative accuracy of projections over time. The results conclusively demonstrate the reduced accuracy of remote population projections. Nevertheless, the exercise of comparing and contrasting the accuracy of projections provides a useful lens for understanding demographic and other issues which necessitate that approaches for developing and utilising projections can and should be different in sparsely populated areas. We provide examples of alternative approaches to projections and the analysis of errors which researchers and analysts in sparsely populated areas might apply to other jurisdictions.

Encounters on the Frontier: Banteng in Australia’s Northern Territory

2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vanessa deKoninck
Keyword(s):  
Introduced Species ◽  
National Park ◽  
Genetic Resource ◽  
Northern Territory ◽  
Nonhuman Animal ◽  
The North ◽  
Bos Javanicus ◽  
Environmental Threat ◽  
Tropical Australia ◽  
Over Time

Abstract This paper considers the case of an introduced species that resides in what is now a jointly managed national park in the north of tropical Australia. Banteng (Bos javanicus) are a peculiar feral nonhuman animal in that they constitute a potential environmental threat within the domestic conservation goals of the park, but they also hold the prospect of being a major genetic resource in the international conservation of the species. Thus, perspectives on the use and management of these animals are varied between different actors in the park landscape, and are subject to fluctuations over time, especially in response to wider social and political circumstances. This paper argues that seemingly objective views of these animals are actually a series of subjectivities, which have less to do with any concrete aspects of the animals themselves and more to do with the way that particular people orient themselves toward, and within, the landscape.

Scales and Units

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathryn M. de Luna
Keyword(s):  
Language Change ◽  
Historical Linguistics ◽  
Bantu Languages ◽  
The North ◽  
First Case ◽  
Linguistic Evidence ◽  
River Region ◽  
History Of ◽  
Alternative Approaches

This chapter uses two case studies to explore how historians study language movement and change through comparative historical linguistics. The first case study stands as a short chapter in the larger history of the expansion of Bantu languages across eastern, central, and southern Africa. It focuses on the expansion of proto-Kafue, ca. 950–1250, from a linguistic homeland in the middle Kafue River region to lands beyond the Lukanga swamps to the north and the Zambezi River to the south. This expansion was made possible by a dramatic reconfiguration of ties of kinship. The second case study explores linguistic evidence for ridicule along the Lozi-Botatwe frontier in the mid- to late 19th century. Significantly, the units and scales of language movement and change in precolonial periods rendered visible through comparative historical linguistics bring to our attention alternative approaches to language change and movement in contemporary Africa.

scholarly journals Spatial clustering of drug-resistant tuberculosis in Hunan province, China: an ecological study

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. e043685
Author(s):  
Kefyalew Addis Alene ◽  
Zuhui Xu ◽  
Liqiong Bai ◽  
Hengzhong Yi ◽  
Yunhong Tan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Treatment Outcomes ◽  
Cumulative Incidence ◽  
Ecological Study ◽  
Spatial Clustering ◽  
Hunan Province ◽  
Drug Resistant ◽  
Drug Resistant Tuberculosis ◽  
The North ◽  
Resistant Tuberculosis ◽  
Over Time

ObjectiveThis study aimed to investigate the spatial distribution of drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) in Hunan province, China.MethodsAn ecological study was conducted using DR-TB data collected from the Tuberculosis Control Institute of Hunan Province between 2012 and 2018. Spatial clustering of DR-TB was explored using the Getis-Ord statistic. A Poisson regression model was fitted with a conditional autoregressive prior structure, and with posterior parameters estimated using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation, to quantify associations with possible risk factors and identify clusters of high DR-TB risk.ResultsA total of 2649 DR-TB patients were reported to Hunan TB Control Institute between 2012 and 2018. The majority of the patients were male (74.8%, n=1983) and had a history of TB treatment (88.53%, n=2345). The proportion of extensively DR-TB among all DR-TB was 3.3% (95% CI 2.7% to 4.1%), which increased from 2.8% in 2012 to 4.4% in 2018. Of 1287 DR-TB patients with registered treatment outcomes, 434 (33.8%) were cured, 198 (15.3%) completed treatment, 92 (7.1%) died, 108 (8.3%) had treatment failure and 455 (35.3%) were lost to follow-up. Half (50.9%, n=655) had poor treatment outcomes. The annual cumulative incidence rate of notified DR-TB increased over time from 0.25 per 100 000 people in 2012 to 0.83 per 100 000 people in 2018. Substantial spatial heterogeneity was observed, and hotspots were detected in counties located in the North and East parts of Hunan province. The cumulative incidence of notified DR-TB was significantly associated with urban communities.ConclusionThe annual incidence of notified DR-TB increased over time in Hunan province. Spatial clustering of DR-TB was detected and significantly associated with urbanisation. This finding suggests that targeting interventions to the highest risk areas and population groups would be effective in reducing the burden and ongoing transmission of DR-TB.

scholarly journals Visualising regional disparities in the risk of COVID-19 at different phases of lockdown in England

2021 ◽  
pp. 0308518X2098416
Author(s):  
Yu-Wang Chen ◽  
Lei Ni ◽  
Dong-Ling Xu ◽  
Jian-Bo Yang
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Sharp Increase ◽  
Regional Disparities ◽  
Local Authorities ◽  
The North ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Over Time

Since late January 2020 when the first coronavirus case reached England, United Kingdom, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly and widely across all local authorities (LAs) in England. In this featured graphic, we visualise how COVID-19 severity changes nationally and locally from 30 January to 23 November 2020. The geo-visualisation shows that there have been large regional disparities in the severity of the outbreak, and the epicentres have shifted from Greater London, Leicester, to the North of England and remained in the North during pre-lockdown, post-lockdown, easing lockdown and second national lockdown phases. We further find that the increase in the testing capacity may partially explain the sharp increase in the confirmed cases during the second wave of the pandemic. However, the disparities in the severity of COVID-19 (i.e., confirmed cases and deaths) among LAs in England become more significant over time. It further sheds light on the necessity of establishing decisive and timely responses to cope with local pandemic situations.

scholarly journals ‘Little Gunshots, but with the blaze of lightning’: Xavier Herbert, Visuality and Human Rights

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-105
Author(s):  
Jane Lydon
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
World War Ii ◽  
Aboriginal People ◽  
Northern Territory ◽  
Social Changes ◽  
Narrative Strategies ◽  
World War ◽  
Major Work ◽  
The North ◽  
Significant Difference

Xavier Herbert published his bestseller Capricornia in 1938, following two periods spent in the Northern Territory. His next major work, Poor Fellow My Country (1975), was not published until thirty-seven years later, but was also set in the north during the 1930s. One significant difference between the two novels is that by 1975 photo-journalism had become a significant force for influencing public opinion and reforming Aboriginal policy. Herbert’s novel, centring upon Prindy as vulnerable Aboriginal child, marks a sea change in perceptions of Aboriginal people and their place in Australian society, and a radical shift toward use of photography as a means of revealing the violation of human rights after World War II. In this article I review Herbert’s visual narrative strategies in the context of debates about this key historical shift and the growing impact of photography in human rights campaigns. I argue that Poor Fellow My Country should be seen as a textual re-enactment, set in Herbert’s and the nation’s past, yet coloured by more recent social changes that were facilitated and communicated through the camera’s lens. Like all re-enactments, it is written in the past conditional: it asks, what if things had been different? It poses a profound challenge to the state project of scientific modernity that was the Northern Territory over the first decades of the twentieth century.

scholarly journals THE STUDY OF METAL VESSELSFROM ANATOLIA (III MILLENNIUM BC): MORPHOLOGY AND THE FINDS CONTEXT

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Л.И. Авилова
Keyword(s):  
Bronze Age ◽  
Hierarchical Structure ◽  
Social Practices ◽  
Near Eastern ◽  
Early State ◽  
The North ◽  
Metal Vessels ◽  
Functional Purpose ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Morphological Distribution

Статья посвящена металлическим сосудам раннего и среднего периодов бронзового века Анатолии. Цель исследования – попытка провести анализ хронологического и морфологического распределения металлических сосудов в регионе и уточнить их назначение, социальные и ритуальные функции с позиций анализа контекста обнаружения. В соответствии с поставленной целью материал рассматривается в нескольких аспектах: динамика распространения металлической посуды во времени; морфология и материал находок; функциональное назначение и социальные практики использования металлических сосудов. Автор подчеркивает значение таких находок для определения комплекса как элитарного, а также в связи с их функциональным использованием в ходе общественно значимых событий, таких, как церемониальная трапеза, в том числе погребальное пиршество. Несмотря на относительную малочисленность данной группы находок, металлические сосуды следует рассматривать как один из важных признаков иерархической структуры раннегосударственного общества, сложения цивилизаций ближневосточного типа. Это косвенно подтверждается отсутствием металлической посуды в памятниках III тыс. до н. э. в Северном Причерноморье. The paper explores metal vessels from the early and the middle periods of the Anatolian Bronze Age. The study attempts to analyze the chronological and morphological distribution of metal vessels in this region and clarify their purpose, social and ritual functions by analyzing the context of archaeological finds. In line with this aim, metal vessels are considered from several aspects: changes in their distribution over time; morphology and the material the finds are made from; functional purpose and social practices metal vessels were used in. The author emphasizes relevance of such finds for categorizing assemblages containing metal vessels as elite ones as well as highlights their significance in relation with their use in socially important events such as ceremonial feasts, including funerary feasts. Despite a relatively limited number of finds attributed to this group, metal vessels should be regarded as one of eloquent markers of a hierarchical structure of society in early state formations and development of civilizations of the Near Eastern type. The said is indirectly confirmed by absence of metal vessels in the III mill. materials from the North Ponticregion.

scholarly journals Alternative methods of determining the number of House of Representatives seats for Australia’s territories

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Wilson ◽  
Andrew Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Northern Territory ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Alternative Methods ◽  
Australian Capital Territory ◽  
Australian Capital ◽  
Background Population ◽  
Australian State ◽  
Member Of Parliament

Background: Population size determines the number of seats each Australian state and territory is entitled to in the House of Representatives. The Northern Territory (NT) and Australian Capital Territory (ACT) were allocated two and three seats, respectively, in the August 2017 determination, but by very small margins. Both territories risk losing a seat at the next determination. This would result in them having considerably more people per member of parliament than any of the states. Aims: This paper (1) provides modelling to support the consideration of alternative rules for determining membership entitlement to the House of Representatives which does not disadvantage the NT and ACT and (2) presents population projections for future determinations under the current and alternative rules. Data and methods: Population projections for the states and territories were produced for three demographic scenarios. The resulting numbers of seats for the NT and ACT were calculated for each scenario under the current and proposed alternative seat entitlement rules. Results: Under the existing rules the NT and ACT would only keep their current number of seats at the next determination if they experienced higher net in-migration than in recent years. Under the alternative seat entitlement rules suggested, the NT and ACT would be very unlikely to lose any seats and would almost certainly gain seats in ensuing decades. Conclusions: There is a case for re-examining the way the states and territories are allocated seats in the House of Representatives.

A multilaboratory validation study of LC/MS biomarker assays for three lysophosphatidylcholines

Bioanalysis ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rika Ishikawa ◽  
Kosuke Saito ◽  
Tsuyoshi Matsumura ◽  
Koji Arai ◽  
Saki Yamauchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Application ◽  
Validation Study ◽  
Calibration Curve ◽  
Rat Plasma ◽  
Relative Accuracy ◽  
Acceptance Criteria ◽  
Assay Validation ◽  
Regulatory Documents ◽  
Validation Parameters ◽  
Fit For Purpose

Aim: Although the fit-for-purpose approach has been proposed for validation procedures and acceptance criteria for biomarker assays, practical biomarker assays to facilitate clinical application and regulatory documents on biomarker assays remain limited. Materials & methods: We assigned six independent laboratories and selected three lysophosphatidylcholines (LPCs): LPC(16:0), LPC(18:0) and LPC(18:1) as model biomarkers. Using LC–MS, the following key validation parameters were evaluated: calibration curve, carryover, parallelism, precision and relative accuracy and these values were similar among all laboratories. Further, we determined LPC levels in six lots of rat plasma at unknown concentrations and compared them among the laboratories. Conclusion: Our multilaboratory validation and reproducibility data are useful for the development of future biomarker assay validation procedures, as well as regulatory documents.

Blame the Barbarians

2021 ◽  
pp. 39-82
Author(s):  
Arika Okrent ◽  
Sean O’Neill
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Old English ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Religious Texts ◽  
The North ◽  
The People ◽  
Latin Language ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Germanic Languages ◽  
Over Time

This chapter tells the story of how English got to be the weird way it is, which begins with the Germanic languages and the barbarians who spoke them. During the 5th century, an assortment of them poured across the North Sea, from what is today Denmark, the Netherlands, and Northern Germany, and conquered most of England. After about a century of the Germanic tribes taking over and settling in, the Romans returned. This time it was not soldiers but missionaries who arrived. The monks who came to convert the island to Christianity brought their Latin language with them, and they also brought the Latin alphabet. They set about translating religious texts into the language of the people they encountered, a language that by this time had coalesced into something that was Old English. However, there is another group of barbarians to blame: the Vikings. Their language was similar enough to Old English that they could communicate with the Anglo-Saxons without too much difficulty, and over time their own way of speaking mixed into the surrounding language, leaving vocabulary and expressions behind that do not quite fit the rest of the pattern at the old Germanic layer.

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