scholarly journals ENSO Teleconnection Pattern Changes over the Southeastern United States under a Climate Change Scenario in CMIP5 Models

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ji-Hyun Oh ◽  
D. W. Shin ◽  
Steven D. Cocke ◽  
Guillermo A. Baigorria
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Teleconnection Pattern ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Historical Simulation ◽  
The Future ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies

A strong teleconnection exists between the sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical Pacific and the winter precipitation in the southeastern United States (SE US). This feature is adopted to validate the fidelity of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in this study. In addition, the authors examine whether the teleconnection pattern persists in the future under a global warming scenario. Generally, most of the eight selected models show a positive correlation between November SST over Niño 3 region and December–February (DJF) mean daily precipitation anomalies over the SE US, consistent with the observation. However, the models with poor realization of skewness of Niño indices fail to simulate the realistic teleconnection pattern in the historical simulation. In the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) run, all of the models maintain positive and slightly increased correlation patterns. It is noteworthy that the region with strong teleconnection pattern shifts northward in the future. Increased variance of winter precipitation due to the SST teleconnection is shown over Alabama and Georgia rather than over Florida under the RCP8.5 scenario in most of the models, differing from the historical run in which the precipitation in Florida is the most attributable to the eastern Pacific SST.

Archaic Shell Mounds in the American Southeast

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Saunders
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
Savannah River ◽  
The Past ◽  
Island Area ◽  
Recent Scholarship ◽  
Shell Mounds ◽  
The Future ◽  
American Southeast ◽  
Shell Rings

Freshwater and estuarine shellfish began to be exploited in the southeastern United States between 9000 and 7000 b.p. Shortly thereafter, shell mounds appeared in the mid-South Shell Mound Archaic, along the St. Johns River in peninsular Florida, and, somewhat later, in the Stallings Island area along the middle Savannah River. On the lower Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, shell rings arose. Until recently, all these mounds were considered middens—the accumulations of the remains of simple meals of mobile peoples who visited the same areas for hundreds or thousands of years. More recent scholarship indicates that these mounds were deliberate constructions—some of the first sculpted landscapes created by Archaic peoples to memorialize the past, celebrate the present, and provide for the future. In this chapter, recent research on shell sites in these four areas is discussed. The emphasis is on changing perspectives about the peoples who built them.

scholarly journals Evaluation of soil moisture in CMIP5 simulations over contiguous United States using in situ and satellite observations

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanshui Yuan ◽  
Steven M. Quiring
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Soil Column ◽  
Regional Analysis ◽  
Soil Layer ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Near Surface

Abstract. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of soil moisture simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) extended historical experiment (2003 to 2012). Soil moisture from in situ and satellite sources are used to evaluate CMIP5 simulations in the contiguous United States (CONUS). Both near-surface (0–10 cm) and soil column (0–100 cm) simulations from more than 14 CMIP5 models are evaluated during the warm season (April–September). Multi-model ensemble means and the performance of individual models are assessed at a monthly time scale. Our results indicate that CMIP5 models can reproduce the seasonal variability in soil moisture over CONUS. However, the models tend to overestimate the magnitude of both near-surface and soil-column soil moisture in the western U.S. and underestimate it in the eastern U.S. There are large variations in model performance, especially in the near-surface. There are significant regional and inter-model variations in performance. Results of a regional analysis show that in deeper soil layer, the CMIP5 soil moisture simulations tend to be most skillful in the southern U.S. Based on both the satellite-derived and in situ soil moisture, CESM1, CCSM4 and GFDL-ESM2M perform best in the 0–10 cm soil layer and CESM1, CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2M and HadGEM2-ES perform best in the 0–100 cm soil layer.

scholarly journals The Future of Tree Improvement in the Southeastern United States: Alternative Visions for the Next Decade

2005 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 88-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
T.D. Byram ◽  
T.J. Mullin ◽  
T.L. White ◽  
J.P. van Buijtenen
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
Tree Improvement ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Cooperative Research ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Improvement Programs ◽  
Societal Expectations

Abstract The tree improvement programs founded in the southeastern United States 50 years ago have been the prototype for many silvicultural research programs around the world. During that time, they have been directly or indirectly responsible for much of the remarkable progress in forest productivity seen in the southeastern United States. They have also exported plant material, ideas, and trained professionals to many other parts of the world. These programs, models for collaborative research and development, are now entering a critical period fraught with both promise and peril. Extraordinary progress in both forest genetics and tree improvement is achievable during the next 10 years. Advances in physiology, genomics, and molecular biology provide tools to make rapid improvements in vegetative propagation, selection efficiencies, deployment strategies, and the possibility of creating crop trees with novel characteristics. This article discusses four main areas of concern that influence the future of tree improvement: economics, societal expectations, rate of scientific advancement, and organizational infrastructure. Key to the economic concerns are the restraints that arise from the fact that wood and fiber products are temporarily abundant in the global market. Under these conditions, tree improvement is restrained to adding value either by lowering production costs or by making qualitative changes capable of transforming the output into higher value specialty products. Key to the societal expectations is how tree improvement practitioners address the limits set by society on acceptable technology. We have a responsibility to shape public and corporate policies by helping evaluate the risks and benefits of alternative technologies. We have more control of the advancement of science and its silvicultural application. Nevertheless, advances in science occur at irregular intervals and are impossible to predict. The one area of our future that we collectively control is the infrastructure by which we organize our efforts. Criteria for successful infrastructure will be those that support continuity of effort, maximize return from limited resources, and foster cooperative research while simultaneously promoting the development of proprietary intellectual property. South. J. Appl. For. 29(2):88–95.

scholarly journals Analysis of Diurnal Patterns in Winter Precipitation across the Conterminous United States

2005 ◽  
Vol 133 (3) ◽  
pp. 707-711 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shouraseni Sen Roy ◽  
Robert C. Balling
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Harmonic Wave ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
General Tendency ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Diurnal Patterns ◽  
Observation Bias ◽  
Precipitation Events ◽  
Variance Explained

Abstract Hourly winter (November–March) precipitation data were assembled for nearly 5000 stations in the conterminous United States over the period 1948–98. Despite a potential observation bias in the 24th hour, a general tendency for winter precipitation events was found to occur more frequently near sunrise than for any other time of the day. Based on the standardized amplitude of the first harmonic wave, the pattern is most pronounced in Texas and in an area surrounding Colorado and Wyoming. The pattern also appears significant in the southeastern United States and in northern California based on the variance explained by the first harmonic fit. It is suggested that the diurnal patterns seen in the conterminous United States are related to increased relative humidity values occurring near sunrise and increased wind speeds in the warm sector of cyclonic storms.

A Diagnosis of the 1979–2005 Extreme Rainfall Events in the Southeastern United States with Isentropic Moisture Tracing

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (4) ◽  
pp. 1172-1185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven C. Chan ◽  
Vasubandhu Misra
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Moisture Sources ◽  
Precipitation Total ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract A detailed analysis is performed to better understand the interannual and subseasonal variability of moisture sources of major recent dry (1980, 1990, and 2000) and wet (1994, 2003, and 2005) June–August (JJA) seasons in the southeastern United States. Wet (dry) JJAs show an increased (decreased) standard deviation of daily precipitation. Whereas most days during dry JJAs have little or no precipitation, wet JJAs contain more days with significant precipitation and a large increase of heavy (+10 mm) precipitation days. At least two tropical cyclone/depression landfalls occur in the southeastern United States during wet JJAs, whereas none occur during dry JJAs. The trajectory analysis suggests significant local recycling of moisture, implying that land surface feedback has the potential to enhance (suppress) precipitation anomalies during a wet (dry) JJA. Remote moisture sources during heavy precipitation events are very similar between wet and dry JJAs. The distinction between wet and dry JJAs lies in the frequency of heavy precipitation events. During the wet JJAs, heavy precipitation events contribute to more than half of the JJA precipitation total.

scholarly journals Intermodel Variability and Mechanism Attribution of Central and Southeastern U.S. Anomalous Cooling in the Twentieth Century as Simulated by CMIP5 Models

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (17) ◽  
pp. 6215-6237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zaitao Pan ◽  
Xiaodong Liu ◽  
Sanjiv Kumar ◽  
Zhiqiu Gao ◽  
James Kinter
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract Some parts of the United States, especially the southeastern and central portion, cooled by up to 2°C during the twentieth century, while the global mean temperature rose by 0.6°C (0.76°C from 1901 to 2006). Studies have suggested that the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) may be responsible for this cooling, termed the “warming hole” (WH), while other works reported that regional-scale processes such as the low-level jet and evapotranspiration contribute to the abnormity. In phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3), only a few of the 53 simulations could reproduce the cooling. This study analyzes newly available simulations in experiments from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) from 28 models, totaling 175 ensemble members. It was found that 1) only 19 out of 100 all-forcing historical ensemble members simulated negative temperature trend (cooling) over the southeast United States, with 99 members underpredicting the cooling rate in the region; 2) the missing of cooling in the models is likely due to the poor performance in simulating the spatial pattern of the cooling rather than the temporal variation, as indicated by a larger temporal correlation coefficient than spatial one between the observation and simulations; 3) the simulations with greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing only produced strong warming in the central United States that may have compensated the cooling; and 4) the all-forcing historical experiment compared with the natural-forcing-only experiment showed a well-defined WH in the central United States, suggesting that land surface processes, among others, could have contributed to the cooling in the twentieth century.

Simulation and Projection of the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode in CMIP5 Models

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (24) ◽  
pp. 9860-9879 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Zheng ◽  
Jianping Li ◽  
Robin T. Clark ◽  
Hyacinth C. Nnamchi
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Asymmetric Component ◽  
The Future

Abstract Climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical regions is dominated by the SH annular mode (SAM). Future changes in the SAM could have a large influence on the climate over broad regions. In this paper, the authors utilized model simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to examine projected future changes in the SAM during the austral summer [December–February (DJF)]. To start off, first, the ability of the models in reproducing the recently observed spatial and temporal variability was assessed. The 12 CMIP5 models examined were found to reproduce the SAM's spatial pattern reasonably well in terms of both the symmetrical and the asymmetric component. The CMIP5 models show an improvement over phase 3 of CMIP (CMIP3) in simulating the seesaw structure of the SAM and also give improvements in the recently observed positive SAM trend. However, only half the models appeared to be able to capture two major recent decadal SAM phases. Then, the future SAM trends and its sensitivity to greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations using simulations based on the representative concentration pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) were explored. With RCP4.5, a very weak negative trend for this century is found. Conversely, with RCP8.5, a significant positive trend was projected, with a magnitude similar to the recently observed trend. Finally, model uncertainty in the future SAM projections was quantified by comparing projections from the individual CMIP5 models. The results imply the response of SH polar region stratospheric temperature to GHGs could be a significant controlling factor on the future evolution of the SAM.

scholarly journals Holocene Hydroclimate in the Southeastern United States During Abrupt Climate Events: Evidence From New Speleothem Isotopic Records From Alabama

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Medina-Elizalde ◽  
Stefan Perritano ◽  
Matthew DeCesare ◽  
Josué Polanco-Martinez ◽  
Gabriela Serrato-Marks ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Spring Precipitation

Abstract We present new high-resolution absolute-dated stalagmite δ18O and δ13C records from the southeastern United States (SE US) spanning the last 12 thousand years (ka). A local relationship between annual rainfall amount and its amount-weighed δ18O composition exists on interannual timescales, driven mostly by an amount effect during summer and spring seasons, and by an isotopically depleted composition of fall and winter precipitation. Based on a novel interpretation of modern rainfall isotopic data, stalagmite δ18O variability is interpreted to reflect the relative contribution of summer and spring precipitation combined relative to combined fall and winter precipitation. Precipitation amount in the SE US increases during the Younger Dryas, the 8.2 ka and Little Ice Age abrupt cooling events. High precipitation during these events reflects enhancement of spring and summer precipitation while the contribution of fall and winter rainfall remained unchanged or decreased slightly. Results from this study support model simulation results that suggest increased precipitation in the SE US during Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slowdown/shutdown (LeGrande et al., 2006; Renssen et al., 2002; Vellinga and Wood, 2002). In association with Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude cooling from the Early to mid-Holocene, annual precipitation in the SE US decreases, a pattern distinctive from that observed during abrupt cooling events related to AMOC shifts. Long-term hydroclimate change in the SE US is likely sensitive to summer insolation reduction as inferred for other tropical and subtropical regions. This study has implications for our understanding of the sensitivity of subtropical hydroclimate to factors both internal and external to the climate system in a warmer climate.

Simulation and Projection of Summer Convective Afternoon Rainfall Activities over Southeast Asia in CMIP6 Models

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-43
Author(s):  
Wan-Ru Huang ◽  
Ya-Hui Chang ◽  
Liping Deng ◽  
Pin-Yi Liu
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Sea Breeze ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Historical Simulation ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
The Future ◽  
Local Weather

AbstractConvective afternoon rainfall (CAR) events, which tend to generate a local rainfall typically in the afternoon, are among the most frequently observed local weather patterns over Southeast Asia during summer. Using satellite precipitation estimations as an observational base for model evaluation, this study examines the applicability of ten global climate models provided by the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in simulating the CAR activities over Southeast Asia. Analyses also focus on exploring the characteristics and maintenance mechanisms of related projections of CAR activities in the future. Our analyses of the historical simulation indicate that EC-Earth3 and EC-Earth3-Veg are the two best models for simulating CAR activities (including amount, frequency, and intensity) over Southeast Asia. Analyses also demonstrate that EC-Earth3 and EC-Earth3-Veg outperform their earlier version (i.e., EC-Earth) in CMIP5 owing to the increase in its spatial resolution in CMIP6. For future projections, our examinations of the differences in CAR activities between the future (2071–2100, under the ssp858 run) and the present (1985–2014, under historical run) indicate that CAR events will become fewer but more intense over most land areas of Southeast Asia. Possible causes of the projected increase (decrease) in CAR intensity (frequency) are attributed to the projected increase (decrease) in the local atmospheric humidity (sea breeze convergence and daytime thermal instability). These findings provide insight into how the local weather/climate over Southeast Asia is likely to change under global warming.

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