scholarly journals Combining Diffusion Models and Macroeconomic Indicators with a Modified Genetic Programming Method: Implementation in Forecasting the Number of Mobile Telecommunications Subscribers in OECD Countries

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstantinos Salpasaranis ◽  
Vasilios Stylianakis ◽  
Stavros Kotsopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Programming ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Diffusion Models ◽  
Programming Method ◽  
Initial Population ◽  
Mobile Telecommunications ◽  
Technological Forecasting ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Selection Indices ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

This paper proposes a modified Genetic Programming method for forecasting the mobile telecommunications subscribers’ population. The method constitutes an expansion of the hybrid Genetic Programming (hGP) method improved by the introduction of diffusion models for technological forecasting purposes in the initial population, such as the Logistic, Gompertz, and Bass, as well as the Bi-Logistic and LogInLog. In addition, the aforementioned functions and models expand the function set of hGP. The application of the method in combination with macroeconomic indicators such as Gross Domestic Product per Capita (GDPpC) and Consumer Prices Index (CPI) leads to the creation of forecasting models and scenarios for medium- and long-term level of predictability. The forecasting module of the program has also been improved with the multi-levelled use of the statistical indices as fitness functions and model selection indices. The implementation of the modified-hGP in the datasets of mobile subscribers in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries shows very satisfactory forecasting performance.

scholarly journals Forecasting the OECD Fixed Broadband Penetration with Genetic Programming Method, Diffusion Models and Macro-Economic Indicators

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-55
Author(s):  
Konstantinos Salpasaranis ◽  
Vasilios Stylianakis
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Programming ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Diffusion Models ◽  
Causal Models ◽  
Programming Method ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Combination Method ◽  
Technological Forecasting ◽  
Statistical Indicators

Abstract This paper presents the implementation of a modified Genetic Programming (GP) method in forecasting fixed broadband telecommunications penetration percentage in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. The specific GP method combines the use of known diffusion models for technological forecasting purposes, such as Logistic, Gompertz and Bass and the GP. The combination method produces both time dependant and causal models with high performance statistical indicators. Also, multiple approaches to forecasting can be implemented, mainly with no big datasets.

scholarly journals A Hybrid Genetic Programming Method in Optimization and Forecasting: A Case Study of the Broadband Penetration in OECD Countries

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstantinos Salpasaranis ◽  
Vasilios Stylianakis
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Programming ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Diffusion Models ◽  
Programming Method ◽  
Initial Population ◽  
Penetration Data ◽  
Python Programming ◽  
User Friendly ◽  
Statistical Indicators

The introduction of a hybrid genetic programming method (hGP) in fitting and forecasting of the broadband penetration data is proposed. The hGP uses some well-known diffusion models, such as those of Gompertz, Logistic, and Bass, in the initial population of the solutions in order to accelerate the algorithm. The produced solutions models of the hGP are used in fitting and forecasting the adoption of broadband penetration. We investigate the fitting performance of the hGP, and we use the hGP to forecast the broadband penetration in OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries. The results of the optimized diffusion models are compared to those of the hGP-generated models. The comparison indicates that the hGP manages to generate solutions with high-performance statistical indicators. The hGP cooperates with the existing diffusion models, thus allowing multiple approaches to forecasting. The modified algorithm is implemented in the Python programming language, which is fast in execution time, compact, and user friendly.

An econometric analysis of retail turnover in Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1133-1153
Author(s):  
A.T. Kozinova
Keyword(s):  
Household Income ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Retail Trade ◽  
Economic Instability ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

Subject. The article deals with econometric analysis of retail turnover in Russia and its relationship with macroeconomic indicators, like real disposable household income, consumer prices, etc. Objectives. The purpose is to create effective models to analyze the retail turnover in Russia and its relationship with other macroeconomic indicators, taking into account the existence of periods of economic instability. Methods. I apply correlation and regression methods to analyze statistics. To quantify changes in the retail turnover of Russia during the periods of economic instability, I use dummy variables. Results. The Russia’s retail trade turnover index had a reverse and moderate relationship with the consumer price index, direct and strong relationship with the indices of real disposable household income and imports, direct relationship with the manufacturing index. I offer statistically significant regression models of Russia’s retail turnover with the said macroeconomic indicators. Conclusions. The main advantage of models of retail turnover that are built using a large number of observations is a greater number of simultaneously considered factors. The quantitative assessment of retail turnover elasticity by consumer prices confirms the need for inflation targeting by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The higher elasticity of retail turnover in manufacturing as compared with the imports denotes the importance of import substitution policy.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices: Evidence from OECD Countries

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harun Bal ◽  
Mehmet Demiral ◽  
Filiz Yetiz
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

There is an immense literature on the effects of exchange rate changes on macroeconomic indicators, specifically on the trade balance, growth, inflation, and overall productivity in open economies. One of the main attempts in the related literature is about ascertaining whether the exchange rate fluctuations alter domestic prices. This possible mechanism is called as the pass-through effect which is getting more important since the argument that exchange rate adjustment is a part of the solution for global rebalancing is empirically well-supported. Starting from this claim, this study purposes to explore whether there is an exchange rate pass-through effect in 19 high-income OECD countries over the period 1990-2015. To this end, using a panel data set of consumer price index, producer price index proxied by wholesale price index, the nominal effective exchange rates, and industrial production presented by the value-added share of industry sectors in gross domestic product, structural vector autoregressive (VAR) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models are estimated in an unbalanced panel data analysis procedure. Results reveal that exchange rate pass-through effects on the domestic prices are significant but not that strong in both the short-run and the long-run. Expectedly, the pass-through effects tend to diminish over time. The study concludes that policy-makers need to consider policy actions accompanying the exchange rate changes to ensure domestic price stability which consequently interacts with many macroeconomic indicators.

Labour Costs in Oecd Countries, 1964-1975

1976 ◽  
Vol 78 ◽  
pp. 58-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
G.F. Ray
Keyword(s):  
Competitive Advantage ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
British Industry ◽  
Labour Costs ◽  
Consumer Prices

British wage costs per hour, including social charges, had—by 1974—become the lowest among the fifteen industrial countries included in the comparison in this note; this competitive advantage of British industry was however partly or entirely offset by lower labour productivity. Hourly earnings in money terms were not rising outstandingly rapidly in Britain in this period, but since consumer prices increased faster, the improvement in real earnings was slower than in most other countries.

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