scholarly journals Numerical Simulations and Analysis of June 16, 2010 Heavy Rainfall Event over Singapore Using the WRFV3 Model

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. H. Vaid
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Global Analysis ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Rainfall Event ◽  
Cumulus Parameterization ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Event ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Rain Event ◽  
Simulated Precipitation

The Numerical Simulations of the June 16, 2010, Heavy Rainfall Event over Singapore are highlighted by an unprecedented precipitation which produced widespread, massive flooding in and around Singapore. The objective of this study is to check the ability of Weather Research Forecasting version 3 (WRFV3) model to predict the heavy rain event over Singapore. Results suggest that simulated precipitation amounts are sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterization. Various model configurations with initial and boundary conditions from the NCEP Final Global Analysis (FNL), convective and microphysical process parameterizations, and nested-grid interactions have been tested with 48-hour (June 15–17, 2010) integrations of the WRFV3. The spatial distributions of large-scale circulation and dynamical and thermodynamical fields have been simulated reasonably well in the model. The model produced maximum precipitation of ~5 cm over Changi airport which is very near to observation (6.4 cm recorded at Changi airport). The model simulated dynamic and thermodynamic features at 00UTC of June 16, 2010, lead to understand the structure of the mesoscale convective system (MCS) that caused the extreme precipitation over Singapore. It is observed that Singapore heavy rain was the result of an interaction of synoptic-scale weather systems with the mesoscale features.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of a Cumulus Parameterization Scheme to Precipitation Production Representation and Its Impact on a Heavy Rain Event over Korea

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (6) ◽  
pp. 2125-2135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ji-Young Han ◽  
Song-You Hong ◽  
Kyo-Sun Sunny Lim ◽  
Jongil Han
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Cumulus Parameterization ◽  
Parameterization Scheme ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Event ◽  
Rain Event ◽  
Cumulus Parameterization Scheme ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Conversion Parameter ◽  
Range Forecasts

Abstract The sensitivity of a cumulus parameterization scheme (CPS) to a representation of precipitation production is examined. To do this, the parameter that determines the fraction of cloud condensate converted to precipitation in the simplified Arakawa–Schubert (SAS) convection scheme is modified following the results from a cloud-resolving simulation. While the original conversion parameter is assumed to be constant, the revised parameter includes a temperature dependency above the freezing level, which leads to less production of frozen precipitating condensate with height. The revised CPS has been evaluated for a heavy rainfall event over Korea as well as medium-range forecasts using the Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs). The inefficient conversion of cloud condensate to convective precipitation at colder temperatures generally leads to a decrease in precipitation, especially in the category of heavy rainfall. The resultant increase of detrained moisture induces moistening and cooling at the top of clouds. A statistical evaluation of the medium-range forecasts with the revised precipitation conversion parameter shows an overall improvement of the forecast skill in precipitation and large-scale fields, indicating importance of more realistic representation of microphysical processes in CPSs.

scholarly journals A Cloud-Resolving 4DVAR Assimilation Experiment for a Local Heavy Rainfall Event in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (6) ◽  
pp. 1911-1931 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takuya Kawabata ◽  
Tohru Kuroda ◽  
Hiromu Seko ◽  
Kazuo Saito
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Event ◽  
Radar Reflectivity ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Event ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Single Observation ◽  
Assimilation Experiment ◽  
Reflectivity Data

Abstract A cloud-resolving nonhydrostatic four-dimensional variational data assimilation system (NHM-4DVAR) was modified to directly assimilate radar reflectivity and applied to a data assimilation experiment using actual observations of a heavy rainfall event. Modifications included development of an adjoint model of the warm rain process, extension of control variables, and development of an observation operator for radar reflectivity. The responses of the modified NHM-4DVAR were confirmed by single-observation assimilation experiments for an isolated deep convection, using pseudo-observations of rainwater at the initial and end times of the data assimilation window. The results showed that the intensity of convection could be adjusted by assimilating appropriate observations of rainwater near the convection and that undesirable convection could be suppressed by assimilating small or no reflectivity. An assimilation experiment using actual observations of a local heavy rainfall in the Tokyo, Japan, metropolitan area was conducted with a horizontal resolution of 2 km. Precipitable water vapor derived from global positioning system data was assimilated at 5-min intervals within 30-min assimilation windows, and surface and wind profiler data were assimilated at 10-min intervals. Doppler radial wind and radar-reflectivity data below the elevation angle of 5.4° were assimilated at 1-min intervals. The 4DVAR assimilation reproduced a line-shaped rainband with a shape and intensity consistent with the observation. Assimilation of radar-reflectivity data intensified the rainband and suppressed false convection. The simulated rainband lasted for 1 h in the extended forecast and then gradually decayed. Sustaining the low-level convergence produced by northerly winds in the western part of the rainband was key to prolonging the predictability of the convective system.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Polarimetric-Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimates of an Extremely Heavy Rainfall Event and Nine Common Rainfall Events in Guangzhou

Atmosphere ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Zhang ◽  
Liping Liu ◽  
Hao Wen ◽  
Chong Wu ◽  
Yonghua Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Rainfall Event ◽  
Retrieval Algorithm ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Event ◽  
Polarimetric Radar ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Hourly Rainfall

The development and application of operational polarimetric radar (PR) in China is still in its infancy. In this study, an operational PR quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) algorithm is suggested based on data for PR hydrometeor classification and local drop size distribution (DSD). Even though this algorithm performs well for conventional rainfall events, in which hourly rainfall accumulations are less than 50 mm, the capability of a PR to estimate extremely heavy rainfall remains unclear. The proposed algorithm is used for nine different types of rainfall events that occurred in Guangzhou, China, in 2016 and for an extremely heavy rainfall event that occurred in Guangzhou on 6 May 2017. It performs well for all data of these nine rainfall events and for light-to-moderate rain (hourly accumulation <50 mm) in this extremely heavy rainfall event. However, it severely underestimated heavy rain (>50 mm) and the extremely heavy rain at stations where total rainfall exceeded 300 mm within 5 h in this extremely heavy rainfall event. To analyze the reasons for underestimation, a rain microphysics retrieval algorithm is presented to retrieve Dm and Nw from the PR measurements. The DSD characteristics and the factors affecting QPE are analyzed based on Dm and Nw. The results indicate that compared with statistical DSD data in Yangjiang (estimators are derived from these data), the average raindrop diameter during this rainfall event occurred on 6 May 2017 was much smaller and the number concentration was higher. The algorithm underestimated the precipitation with small and midsize particles, but overestimated the precipitation with midsize and large particles. Underestimations occurred when Dm and Nw are both very large, and the severe underestimations for heavy rain are mainly due to these particles. It is verified that some of these particles are associated with melting hail. Owing to the big differences in DSD characteristics, R(KDP, ZDR) underestimates most heavy rain. Therefore, R(AH), which is least sensitive to DSD variations, replaces R(KDP, ZDR) to estimate precipitation. This improved algorithm performs well even for extremely heavy rain. These results are important for evaluating S-band Doppler radar polarization updates in China.

scholarly journals Roles of Land and Topography on Propagating Convective Systems During the Heavy Rainfall Event of the 2002 Jakarta Flood, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erma Yulihastin ◽  
Danang Eko Nuryanto ◽  
Robi Muharsyah
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Rainfall Event ◽  
Movement Direction ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Event ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Upward Motion ◽  
West Java ◽  
Convective Systems

The movement direction of propagating convective systems originating from both inland and offshore over the north coast of West Java in Indonesia is determined primarily by the prevailing wind. However, the role of a land-sea contrast and a rugged topography over southern West Java is also expected to affect propagating convective systems by increasing land-sea breezes and enhancing upward motion. These hypotheses are tested using a weather prediction model incorporating convection (up to 3 km height) to simulate the heavy rainfall event during 26&ndash;29 January associated with the 2002 Jakarta flood. First, we addressed the influence of land-sea contrast and topography on the local circulation, particularly in the area surrounding Jakarta, by replacing the inland topography over western Indonesia (96&deg;&ndash;119&deg;E, 17&deg;S&ndash;0&deg;) with a water body with an altitude of 0 m. We then compared the results of model simulations with and without topography. The results show that the main role of the topography here is enhancing the upward motion and generating a deep convective cloud in response to the land-based convective system during 26&ndash;27 January 2002, which then continuously and rapidly propagates offshore due to the cold pool mechanism. Furthermore, the land-sea contrast has a significant role in increasing sea breeze under the rapidness of the landward propagation system during 28&ndash;29 January 2002, which was strengthened by the gravity waves and resulted in early morning convection over coastal regions.

scholarly journals Simulation of a Heavy Rainfall Event on 14 September 2004 over Dhaka, Bangladesh Using MM5 Model

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 261-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. N. Ahasan ◽  
Dr. M. A. M. Chowdhury ◽  
D. A. Quadir
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Rainfall Event ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Event ◽  
Cumulus Scheme ◽  
Mm5 Model ◽  
The Right

An attempt has been made to simulate a heavy rainfall event on 14 September 2004 over Dhaka, Bangladesh using the fifth-generation PSU/NCAR Mesoscale model (MM5). This was an extraordinary rainfall event and recorded 341 mm rainfall in 24-h which was the highest ever recorded. The MM5 model was run on triple-nested domains at 45, 15, 5 km horizontal resolutions using Anthes-Kuo cumulus  scheme. The model performance was evaluated by examining the different predicted parameters like mean sea level pressure, upper and lower level circulations, moisture, windshear, vorticity, convergence and rainfall. The model derived rainfall was compared with TRMM rainfall. The present results indicate that the MM5 model with the right combination of the nesting domain, horizontal resolution and cumulus scheme was able to simulate the heavy rainfall event, and associated dynamical and thermo-dynamical features reasonably well. The MM5 model suggested that the highly localized heavy rain over Dhaka was the result of an interaction of the monsoon land depression with southwest summer monsoon weather systems. The analysis shows that the depression almost remains stationary over southwest Bangladesh and zone of heavy rain was laid over Dhaka, and required moisture have been supplied from the Bay of Bengal.Keywords: Depression; Heavy rainfall; TRMM; MM5 model; High resolution.© 2011 JSR Publications. ISSN: 2070-0237 (Print); 2070-0245 (Online). All rights reserved.doi:10.3329/jsr.v3i2.6656                 J. Sci. Res. 3 (2), 261-270 (2011)

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