scholarly journals Species Favourability Shift in Europe due to Climate Change: A Case Study for Fagus sylvatica L. and Picea abies (L.) Karst. Based on an Ensemble of Climate Models

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wolfgang Falk ◽  
Nils Hempelmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
European Beech ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
The North

Climate is the main environmental driver determining the spatial distribution of most tree species at the continental scale. We investigated the distribution change of European beech and Norway spruce due to climate change. We applied a species distribution model (SDM), driven by an ensemble of 21 regional climate models in order to study the shift of the favourability distribution of these species. SDMs were parameterized for 1971–2000, as well as 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 using the SRES scenario A1B and three physiological meaningful climate variables. Growing degree sum and precipitation sum were calculated for the growing season on a basis of daily data. Results show a general north-eastern and altitudinal shift in climatological favourability for both species, although the shift is more marked for spruce. The gain of new favourable sites in the north or in the Alps is stronger for beech compared to spruce. Uncertainty is expressed as the variance of the averaged maps and with a density function. Uncertainty in species distribution increases over time. This study demonstrates the importance of data ensembles and shows how to deal with different outcomes in order to improve impact studies by showing uncertainty of the resulting maps.

scholarly journals Fine-scale variation in projected climate change presents opportunities for biodiversity conservation in Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomáš Hlásny ◽  
Martin Mokroš ◽  
Laura Dobor ◽  
Katarína Merganičová ◽  
Martin Lukac
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Biodiversity Conservation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Conservation Priorities ◽  
Continental Scale

Abstract Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity, although projected changes show remarkable geographical and temporal variability. Understanding this variability allows for the identification of regions where the present-day conservation objectives may be at risk or where opportunities for biodiversity conservation emerge. We use a multi-model ensemble of regional climate models to identify areas with significantly high and low climate stability persistent throughout the 21st century in Europe. We then confront our predictions with the land coverage of three prominent biodiversity conservation initiatives at two scales. The continental-scale assessment shows that the most instable future climate in Europe is likely to occur at low and high latitudes, with the Iberian Peninsula and the Boreal zones identified as prominent areas of climatic instability. A follow-up regional scale investigation shows that robust climatic refugia exist even within the highly exposed southern and northern macro-regions. About 23–31 % of assessed biodiversity conservation sites in Europe coincide with these identified climatic refugia, we contend that these sites should be prioritised in the formulation of future conservation priorities as the stability of future climate is one of key factors determining their conservation prospects. Although such focus on climate refugia cannot halt the ongoing biodiversity loss, along with measures such as the resilience-based stewardship, it may improve the effectiveness of biodiversity conservation under climate change.

Temperature Trends in the NARCCAP Regional Climate Models

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (11) ◽  
pp. 3985-3991 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa S. Bukovsky
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Scale Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Assessment

The skill of six regional climate models (RCMs) in reproducing short-term (24-yr), observed, near-surface temperature trends when driven by reanalysis is examined. The RCMs are part of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). If RCMs can reproduce observed temperature trends, then they are, in a way, demonstrating their ability to capture a type of climate change, which may be relevant to their ability to credibly simulate anthropogenic climate changes under future emission scenarios. This study finds that the NARCCAP RCMs can simulate some resolved-scale temperature trends, especially those seen recently in spring and, by and large, in winter. However, results in other seasons suggest that RCM performance in this measure may be dependent on the type and strength of the forcing behind the observed trends.

scholarly journals Protected areas’ effectiveness under climate change: a latitudinal distribution projection of an endangered mountain ungulate along the Andes Range

PeerJ ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. e5222 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Riquelme ◽  
Sergio A. Estay ◽  
Rodrigo López ◽  
Hernán Pastore ◽  
Mauricio Soto-Gamboa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Ranges

BackgroundClimate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, pushing species to shift their distribution ranges and making existing protected areas inadequate. Estimating species distribution and potential modifications under climate change are then necessary for adjusting conservation and management plans; this is especially true for endangered species. An example of this issue is the huemul (Hippocamelus bisulcus), an endemic endangered deer from the southern Andes Range, with less than 2,000 individuals. It is distributed in fragmented populations along a 2,000 km latitudinal gradient, in Chile and Argentina. Several threats have reduced its distribution to <50% of its former range.MethodsTo estimate its potential distribution and protected areas effectiveness, we constructed a species distribution model using 2,813 huemul presence points throughout its whole distribution range, together with 19 bioclimatic layers and altitude information from Worldclim. Its current distribution was projected for years 2050 and 2070 using five different Global Climate Models estimated for scenarios representing two carbon Representative Concentration Routes (RCP)—RCP4.5 and RCP6.0.ResultsBased on current huemul habitat variables, we estimated 91,617 km2of suitable habitat. In future scenarios of climate change, there was a loss of suitable habitat due to altitudinal and latitudinal variation. Future projections showed a decrease of 59.86–60.26% for the year 2050 and 58.57–64.34% for the year 2070 according to RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, respectively. Protected areas only covered only 36.18% of the present distribution, 38.57–34.94% for the year 2050 and 30.79–31.94% for 2070 under climate change scenarios.DiscussionModeling current and future huemul distributions should allow the establishment of priority conservation areas in which to focus efforts and funds, especially areas without official protection. In this way, we can improve management in areas heavily affected by climate change to help ensure the persistence of this deer and other species under similar circumstances worldwide.

scholarly journals Objective selection of model run from regional climate models ensemble

2021 ◽  
pp. 29-36
Author(s):  
V. Khokhlov ◽  
E. Serga ◽  
L. Neodstrelova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Western Coast ◽  
The North ◽  
North Western ◽  
Selection Of

In this paper, a method was developed in relation to the north-western coast of the Black Sea in order to determine the optimal model run from regional climate models ensemble. As a result of climate change, which has been observed since the late 1980s in Ukraine, various natural objects changes have been also transformed. The study of such changes in the future is possible only by using runs of global or regional climate models. Moreover, the step of the spatial grid in the climate model must be comparative with the spatial size of a natural object under study. In the north-western coast of the Black Sea, climate change is characterized by increasing aridity of climate and a corresponding decrease in freshwater inflows into coastal lagoons from their catchments, making ecosystems of these lagoons sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. Using numerical models in order to study climate change impact on these natural objects requires input hydrometeorological information in the spatial grid points, the distance between which should correspond to the horizontal size of lagoons, i.e. several kilometers. In this paper, data from the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of the ensemble from 14 model runs with different regional climatic models of the CORDEX project were used to simulate the future changes of the temperature and precipitation regime. For each grid point and scenario, a single simulation was selected from the ensemble, which best reproduces the intra-annual changes of temperature, precipitation, and evaporation compared to the ensemble means. Despite the sufficiently large distance between the estuaries, the method allowed the selection of a single optimal model run, which shows the significant differences in spring and summer precipitation as well as year-around evaporation in the southern and northern parts of the northwestern coast of the region. This run well reproduces the relationship between temperature, precipitation, and evaporation in the southern and northern parts of the northwestern coast of the Black Sea.

scholarly journals Water Budgets of Managed Forests in Northeast Germany under Climate Change—Results from a Model Study on Forest Monitoring Sites

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 2403
Author(s):  
Daniel Ziche ◽  
Winfried Riek ◽  
Alexander Russ ◽  
Rainer Hentschel ◽  
Jan Martin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Realistic Model ◽  
Forest Monitoring ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Historical Time ◽  
Time Period

To develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of forests to drought, it is necessary to estimate specific water balances in sites and to estimate their development with climate change scenarios. We quantified the water balance of seven forest monitoring sites in northeast Germany for the historical time period 1961–2019, and for climate change projections for the time period 2010–2100. We used the LWF-BROOK90 hydrological model forced with historical data, and bias-adjusted data from two models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) downscaled with regional climate models under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. Site-specific monitoring data were used to give a realistic model input and to calibrate and validate the model. The results revealed significant trends (evapotranspiration, dry days (actual/potential transpiration < 0.7)) toward drier conditions within the historical time period and demonstrate the extreme conditions of 2018 and 2019. Under RCP8.5, both models simulate an increase in evapotranspiration and dry days. The response of precipitation to climate change is ambiguous, with increasing precipitation with one model. Under RCP2.6, both models do not reveal an increase in drought in 2071–2100 compared to 1990–2019. The current temperature increase fits RCP8.5 simulations, suggesting that this scenario is more realistic than RCP2.6.

scholarly journals Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 673-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Colmet-Daage ◽  
Emilia Sanchez-Gomez ◽  
Sophie Ricci ◽  
Cécile Llovel ◽  
Valérie Borrell Estupina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. The climate change impact on mean and extreme precipitation events in the northern Mediterranean region is assessed using high-resolution EuroCORDEX and MedCORDEX simulations. The focus is made on three regions, Lez and Aude located in France, and Muga located in northeastern Spain, and eight pairs of global and regional climate models are analyzed with respect to the SAFRAN product. First the model skills are evaluated in terms of bias for the precipitation annual cycle over historical period. Then future changes in extreme precipitation, under two emission scenarios, are estimated through the computation of past/future change coefficients of quantile-ranked model precipitation outputs. Over the 1981–2010 period, the cumulative precipitation is overestimated for most models over the mountainous regions and underestimated over the coastal regions in autumn and higher-order quantile. The ensemble mean and the spread for future period remain unchanged under RCP4.5 scenario and decrease under RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation events are intensified over the three catchments with a smaller ensemble spread under RCP8.5 revealing more evident changes, especially in the later part of the 21st century.

Optimized planning and operation of interconnected multi-purpose reservoir systems using integrated modeling for climate change adaptation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Nistahl ◽  
Tim Müller ◽  
Gerhard Riedel ◽  
Hannes Müller-Thomy ◽  
Günter Meon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Reservoir Operation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Flood Protection ◽  
Performance Criteria ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Operation Model

&lt;p&gt;Climate change impact studies performed for Northern Germany indicate a growing demand for water storage capacity to account for flood protection, low flow augmentation, drinking and agricultural water supply. At the same time, larger storage volumes for hydropower plants can be used to cope with the demands of changing energy supply from fossil to renewable energies. To tackle these challenges for the next decades, a novel reservoir system planning instrument is developed, which consists of combined numerical models and evaluation components. It allows to model simultaneously the current interconnected infrastructure of reservoirs as well as additional planning variants (structural and operational) as preparation for climate change. This planning instrument consists of a hydrological model and a detailed reservoir operation model.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;As hydrological model, the conceptual, semi-distributed version of PANTA RHEI is applied. &amp;#160;Bias-corrected regional climate models (based on the RCP 8.5 scenario) are used as meteorological input. The hydrological model is coupled with a detailed reservoir operation model that replicates the complex rules of various interconnected reservoirs based on an hourly time step including pumped storage plants, which may have a subsurface reservoir as a lower basin. Downstream of the reservoirs, the hydrological model is used for routing the reservoir outflows and simulating natural side inflows. In areas of particular interest for flood protection, the hydrological routing is substituted with 2D hydraulic models to calculate the flood risk in terms of expected annual flood damage based on resulting inundation areas.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;For the performance analysis, the simulation runs for all integrated modeling variants are evaluated for a reference period (1971-2000) and for future periods (2041-2070). Performance criteria involve flood protection, drinking water supply, low flow augmentation and energy production. These performance criteria will be used as stake holder information as well as a base for further optimization and ranking of the planning variants.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The combination of the hydrological model and the reservoir operation model shows a good performance of the existing complex hydraulic infrastructure using observed meteorological forcing as input. The usage of regional climate models as input shows a wide dispersion of several performance criteria, confirming the expected need for an innovative optimization scheme and the communication of the underlying uncertainties.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Simulating future precipitation extremes in a complex Alpine catchment

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 263-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Dobler ◽  
G. Bürger ◽  
J. Stötter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Station Data

Abstract. The objectives of the present investigation are (i) to study the effects of climate change on precipitation extremes and (ii) to assess the uncertainty in the climate projections. The investigation is performed on the Lech catchment, located in the Northern Limestone Alps. In order to estimate the uncertainty in the climate projections, two statistical downscaling models as well as a number of global and regional climate models were considered. The downscaling models applied are the Expanded Downscaling (XDS) technique and the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG). The XDS model, which is driven by analyzed or simulated large-scale synoptic fields, has been calibrated using ECMWF-interim reanalysis data and local station data. LARS-WG is controlled through stochastic parameters representing local precipitation variability, which are calibrated from station data only. Changes in precipitation mean and variability as simulated by climate models were then used to perturb the parameters of LARS-WG in order to generate climate change scenarios. In our study we use climate simulations based on the A1B emission scenario. The results show that both downscaling models perform well in reproducing observed precipitation extremes. In general, the results demonstrate that the projections are highly variable. The choice of both the GCM and the downscaling method are found to be essential sources of uncertainty. For spring and autumn, a slight tendency toward an increase in the intensity of future precipitation extremes is obtained, as a number of simulations show statistically significant increases in the intensity of 90th and 99th percentiles of precipitation on wet days as well as the 5- and 20-yr return values.

The role of conceptual hydrologic model calibration in climate change impact on water resources assessment

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrijana Todorovic ◽  
Jasna Plavsic
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Calibration Period ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Parameter Values

Assessment of climate change (CC) impact on hydrologic regime requires a calibrated rainfall-runoff model, defined by its structure and parameters. The parameter values depend, inter alia, on the calibration period. This paper investigates influence of the calibration period on parameter values, model efficiency and streamflow projections under CC. To this end, a conceptual HBV-light model of the Kolubara River catchment in Serbia is calibrated against flows observed within 5 consecutive wettest, driest, warmest and coldest years and in the complete record period. The optimised parameters reveal high sensitivity towards calibration period. Hydrologic projections under climate change are developed by employing (1) five hydrologic models with outputs of one GCM–RCM chain (Global and Regional Climate Models) and (2) one hydrologic model with five GCM–RCM outputs. Sign and magnitude of change in projected variables, compared to the corresponding values simulated over the baseline period, vary with the hydrologic model used. This variability is comparable in magnitude to variability stemming from climate models. Models calibrated over periods with similar precipitation as the projected ones may result in less uncertain projections, while warmer climate is not expected to contribute to the uncertainty in flow projections. Simulations over prolonged dry periods are expected to be uncertain.

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