scholarly journals A Comparative Study of Some Regression Models to Estimate the Global Solar Radiation on a Horizontal Surface from Sunshine Duration and Meteorological Parameters for Ghardaïa Site, Algeria

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kacem Gairaa ◽  
Yahia Bakelli
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Horizontal Plane ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Quadratic Models

A comparison between some regression correlations for predicting the global solar radiation received on a horizontal plane has been processed. Seven models for estimating the global solar radiation from sunshine duration and two meteorological parameters (air temperature and relative humidity) are presented. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean bias error (MBE), correlation coefficient (CC), and percentage error () have been also computed to test the accuracy of the proposed models. Comparisons between the measured and the calculated values have been made. The results obtained show that the linear and quadratic models are the most suitable for estimating the global solar radiation from sunshine duration, and for the models based on meteorological parameters, Abdalla and Ojosu's models give the best performance with a CC of 0.898 and 0.892, respectively.

scholarly journals Empirical models for predicting global solar radiation using meteorological parameters for Sokoto, Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 48
Author(s):  
Davidson O. Akpootu ◽  
Bello I. Tijjani ◽  
Usman M. Gana
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Radiation Maximum

The performances of sunshine, temperature and multivariate models for the estimation of global solar radiation for Sokoto (Latitude 13.020N, Longitude 05.250E and 350.8 m asl) located in the Sahelian region in Nigeria were evaluated using measured monthly average daily global solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperatures, sunshine hours, rainfall, wind speed, cloud cover and relative humidity meteorological data during the period of thirty one years (1980-2010). The comparison assessment of the models was carried out using statistical indices of coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Bias Error (MBE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Percentage Error (MPE), t – test, Nash – Sutcliffe Equation (NSE) and Index of Agreement (IA). For the sunshine based models, a total of ten (10) models were developed, nine (9) existing and one author’s sunshine based model. For the temperature based models, a total of four (4) models were developed, three (3) existing and one author’s temperature based model. The results of the existing and newly developed author’s sunshine and temperature based models were compared and the best empirical model was identified and recommended. The results indicated that the author’s quadratic sunshine based model involving the latitude and the exponent temperature based models are found more suitable for global solar radiation estimation in Sokoto. The evaluated existing Ångström type sunshine based model for the location was compared with those available in literature from other studies and was found more suitable for estimating global solar radiation. Comparing the most suitable sunshine and temperature based models revealed that the temperature based models is more appropriate in the location. The developed multivariate regression models are found suitable as evaluation depends on the available combination of the meteorological parameters based on two to six variable correlations. The recommended models are found suitable for estimating global solar radiation in Sokoto and regions with similar climatic information with higher accuracy and climatic variability.   

scholarly journals Estimation of monthly global solar radiation in Buenos Aires: preliminary analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 669-680
Author(s):  
Susan G. Lakkis ◽  
Mario Lavorato ◽  
Pablo O. Canziani
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Buenos Aires ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Third Order ◽  
Sunshine Hours

Six existing models and one proposed approach for estimating global solar radiation were tested in Buenos Aires using commonly measured meteorological data as temperature and sunshine hours covering the years 2010-2013. Statistical predictors as mean bias error, root mean square, mean percentage error, slope and regression coefficients were used as validation criteria. The variability explained (R2), slope and MPE indicated that the higher precision could be excepted when sunshine hours are used as predictor. The new proposed approach explained almost 99% of the RG variability with deviation of less than ± 0.1 MJm-2day-1 and with the MPE smallest value below 1 %. The well known Ångström-Prescott methods, first and third order, was also found to perform for the measured data with high accuracy (R2=0.97-0.99) but with slightly higher MBE values (0.17-0.18 MJm-2day-1). The results pointed out that the third order Ångström type correlation did not improve the estimation accuracy of solar radiation given the highest range of deviation and mean percentage error obtained.  Where the sunshine hours were not available, the formulae including temperature data might be considered as an alternative although the methods displayed larger deviation and tended to overestimate the solar radiation behavior.

scholarly journals Estimates of daily global solar radiation based on the daily temperature extremes and precipitation sums

2004 ◽  
Vol 52 (5) ◽  
pp. 13-28
Author(s):  
Miroslav Trnka
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Regression Line ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Daily Temperature ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Temperature Extremes

Two methods for estimating daily global solar radiation (RG) based on the daily temperature extremes and precipitation sum are compared in the study. All parameters necessary for application of both methods were derived either from literature or from climatic characteristics easily available at the given meteorological stations excluding need for measured RG data. The performance of both methods was assessed with a help of meteorological database including 4 stations in the Czech Republic (data were provided by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute) and 6 in Austria (data provided by the Austrian Weather Service) containing in total 41 640 observational day. For each day in the database observed daily sum of RG, daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation sum were available. Coefficient of determination, slope of regression line forced through origin, mean bias error (MBE) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used as performance indicators. The first method proposed by Winslow et al. (2001) – Eq. (1) is capable to explain 86% of daily RG variability, with systematic error represented by MBE equaling to 0.19 MJ.m–2.day-1 and random error indicated by RMSE reaching up to 3.09. The second method published by Thornton and Running (1999)-Eq. (2) was found to be in almost all parameters inferior to the Eq. (1) and thus the Eq. (1) is recommended to be used in the Central European region (up to 600 m above the sea level). This method might be recommended for stations where neither measured RG or sunshine duration hours exist. However, one should take into consideration that relative MBE and RMSE are in some months higher than 10% and 30% respectively, which may compromise results of subsequent calculations made with use of estimated solar radiation data and alter the order of the method suitability.

scholarly journals Prediction of daily global solar radiation using different empirical models on the basis of meteorological parameters at Trans Himalaya Region, Nepal

BIBECHANA ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 159-169
Author(s):  
Usha Joshi ◽  
I B Karki ◽  
N P Chapagain ◽  
K N Poudyal
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Energy Resource ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Empirical Models ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Sunshine Hour ◽  
Empirical Constants

Global Solar Radiation (GSR) is the cleanest and freely available energy resource on the earth.  GSR  was measured for six years (2010 -2015) at the horizontal surface using calibrated first-class CMP6 pyranometer at Kathmandu (Lat. 27.70o N, Long. 85.5oE and Alt. 1350m). This paper explains the daily, monthly, and seasonal variations of GSR and also compares with sunshine hour, ambient temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation to GSR. The annual average global solar radiation is about 4.16 kWh/m2/day which is a significant amount to promote solar active and passive energy technologies at the Trans-Himalaya region. In this study, the meteorological parameters are utilized in the regression technique for four different empirical models and finally, the empirical constants are found. Thus obtained coefficients are utilized to predict the GSR using meteorological parameters for the years to come. In addition, the predicted GSR is found to be closer to the measured value of GSR. The values are justified by using statistical tools such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean percentage error (MPE), and mean bias error (MBE). Finally, the values of R2, RMSE, MPE, and MBE are found to be 0.792, 1.405, -1.014, and 0.011, respectively for the model (D), which are based on sunshine hour, temperature and relative humidity. In this model, the empirical constants, a = 0.155, b = 0.134, c = 0.014 and d = 0.0007 are determined which can be utilized at the similar geographical locations of Nepal. BIBECHANA 18 (2021) 159-169

Evaluation of the regression parameters of the Angstrom-Page model for predicting global solar radiation

2013 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 46-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Solomon Agbo
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Statistical Parameters ◽  
New Model ◽  
Page Model ◽  
Regression Parameters

A simple and empirical model for the estimation of average monthly global solar radiation for a Nigerian location is presented. Regression coefficients satisfying the Angstrom-page model have been obtained using clearness index (KT) and the relative sunshine data for the location. The test of validity of the model was done by evaluating the following statistical parameters: the mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean percentage error (MPE) and the correlation coefficient (CC). The results obtained from the statistical tests show that the new model is reliable for high precision estimation of global solar radiation. A comparison between the new model and other models is presented.

Evaluation of Global Solar Radiation using Sunshine Hour, Temperature and Relative Humidity at Low Land Region of Nepal

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-24
Author(s):  
U. Joshi ◽  
K.N. Poudyal ◽  
I.B. Karki ◽  
N.P. Chapagain
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Energy Potential ◽  
To Come ◽  
Empirical Constants

The accurate knowledge of solar energy potential is essential for agricultural scientists, energy engineers, architects and hydrologists for relevant applications in concerned fields. It is cleanest and freely available renewable energy measured using CMP6 Pyranometer. However, it is quite challenging to acquire accurate solar radiation data in different locations of Nepal because of the high cost of instruments and maintenances. In these circumstances, it is essential to select an appropriate empirical model to predict global solar radiation for the use of future at low land, Nepalgunj (28.102°N, 81.668°E and alt. 165 masl) for the year 2011-2012. In this paper, six different empirical models have been used based on regression technique, provided the meteorological data. The empirical constants (a = 0.61, b = 0.05, c = -0.0012 and d = -0.017) are obtained to predict Global solar radiation. The values of statistical tools such as mean percentage error, mean bias error, root mean square error, and coefficient of determination obtained for Abdalla model are 1.99%, 0.003 MJ/m2/day, 2.04 MJ/m2/day and 0.74 respectively. Using the error analysis, it is concluded that the Abdalla model is better than others. So the empirical constants of this model are utilized to predict the global solar radiation to the similar geographical sites of Nepal for the years to come and it can be used to estimate the missing data of solar radiation for the respective sites.

scholarly journals Choice of ideal sunshine hour based model to predict global solar radiation in India

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 71 (3) ◽  
pp. 451-466
Author(s):  
SAMANTA SUMAN ◽  
BANERJEE SAON ◽  
PATRA PULAK KUMAR ◽  
MAITI SUDHANSU SEKHAR ◽  
CHATTOPADHYAY NABANSU
Keyword(s):  
Energy Source ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Exponential Model ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Energy Conversion Systems ◽  
Sunshine Hour

Solar radiation is the key energy source for most of the energy conversion systems, whether it is biological or mechanical. It is also the most fundamental energy source for future energy demand. Like most of the developing countries, India also lacks sufficient instrument facilities to measure global solar radiation (GSR) at recommended spatial interval and alternative approaches must be used to generate GSR data. In the present study, six well known empirical models were tested to estimate the GSR over twelve major cities of India using long-term global solar radiation and bright sunshine hour data. The empirical coefficients have been calculated for all the models and each location using regression analysis method. Daily GSR are then calculated using those regression constants along with statistical analysis. Results reveal that all the models shows close estimation with low mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean percentage error (MPE) values. Among all models, linear exponential and linear logarithmic models are highly recommended for prediction of GSR throughout the country, except Shillong, where Bakircilinear exponential model is recommended. Significance tests i.e., t-test also confirms that this two model produce most significant results than others.

scholarly journals Estimation of Global Solar Radiation using Modifed Angstrom Empirical formula on the basis of Meterological parameters in Himalaya Region Pokhara, Nepal

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 158-164
Author(s):  
Khem N. Poudyal
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Performance Parameters ◽  
Sunshine Hour

This research work proposes the coefficient equation of modified Angstrom   model using sunshine hour and meteorological parameters for the estimation of global solar radiation in Himalaya Region Pokhara (28.22° N, 83.32° E),  Nepal . This site is about 800.0 m above from the sea level lying just 20.0 km south of the Machhaputre Himalayas.  The model coefficients a and b obtained in this research are 0.43 and 0.23 respectively. The performance parameters of the model are: Root Mean Square Error RMSE = 0.13 MJ/m2 /day, Mean Bias Error MBE= 0.02 MJ/m /day Mean Percentage MPE= 5 percent and coefficient of determination R2 = 0.70. Journal of the Institute of Engineering, 2015, 11(1): 158-164

scholarly journals New temperature dependent models for estimating global solar radiation across the midland climatic zone of Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
Davidson O. Akpootu ◽  
Bello I. Tijjani ◽  
Usman M. Gana
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Climatic Zone ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Statistical Validation

Authentic information of the availability of global solar radiation is significant to agro/hydro meteorologists, atmospheric Physicists and solar energy engineers for the purpose of local and international marketing, designs and manufacturing of solar equipment. In this study, five new proposed temperature dependent models were evaluated using measured monthly average daily global solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperature meteorological data during the period of thirty one years (1980-2010). The new models were compared with three existing temperature dependent models (Chen et al., Hargreaves and Samani and Garcia) using seven different statistical validation indicators of coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Bias Error (MBE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Percentage Error (MPE), t – test, Nash – Sutcliffe Equation (NSE) and Index of Agreement (IA) to ascertain the suitability of global solar radiation estimation in five different locations (Zaria, Bauchi, Jos, Minna and Yola) situated in the Midland climatic zone of Nigeria. In each location, the result shows that a new empirical regression model was found more accurate when compared to the existing models and are therefore recommended for estimating global solar radiation in the location and regions with similar climatic information where only temperature data are available. The evaluated existing Hargreaves and Samani and Garcia temperature based models for Jos were compared to those available in literature and was found more suitable for estimating global solar radiation for the location. The comparison between the measured and estimated temperature dependent models depicts slight overestimation and underestimation in some months with good fitting in the studied locations. However, the recommended models give the best fitting.   

scholarly journals Calibration of Ångström-Prescott Equation to Estimate Daily Solar Radiation on Rio Grande do Norte State, Brazil

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 409-416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felipe J. de Medeiros ◽  
Claudio M. Santos e Silva ◽  
Bergson G. Bezerra
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Space Resolution ◽  
Radiation Data ◽  
Abstract Knowledge

Abstract Knowledge of solar radiation is required for many applications. However, this atmospheric variable is not measured with an adequate space resolution. In this sense, to sites where solar radiation data are not directly measure, estimative using Ångström-Prescott equation can be used in order to provide solar radiation data, with input of sunshine duration. Thus, the objective of present study was to calibrate the Ångström-Prescott equation for different sites in Rio Grande do Norte state, Brazil. The performance of the calibrated Ångström-Prescott equation was evaluated by comparing of daily global solar radiation observed in situ. The MBE (Mean Bias Error) was lower than 1.50 MJ m-2 day-1, the Pearson's correlation coefficient about 0.90 and Willmott's index of agreement higher than 0.90, which are considered satisfactory.

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