scholarly journals Information Content of Seasonal Forecasts in a Changing Climate

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nir Y. Krakauer ◽  
Michael D. Grossberg ◽  
Irina Gladkova ◽  
Hannah Aizenman

We study the potential value to stakeholders of probabilistic long-term forecasts, as quantified by the mean information gain of the forecast compared to climatology. We use as a case study the USA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts of 3-month temperature and precipitation anomalies made at 0.5-month lead time since 1995. Mean information gain was positive but low (about 2% and 0.5% of the maximum possible for temperature and precipitation forecasts, resp.) and has not increased over time. Information-based skill scores showed similar patterns to other, non-information-based, skill scores commonly used for evaluating seasonal forecasts but tended to be smaller, suggesting that information gain is a particularly stringent measure of forecast quality. We also present a new decomposition of forecast information gain into Confidence, Forecast Miscalibration, and Climatology Miscalibration components. Based on this decomposition, the CPC forecasts for temperature are on average underconfident while the precipitation forecasts are overconfident. We apply a probabilistic trend extrapolation method to provide an improved reference seasonal forecast, compared to the current CPC procedure which uses climatology from a recent 30-year period. We show that combining the CPC forecast with the probabilistic trend extrapolation more than doubles the mean information gain, providing one simple avenue for increasing forecast skill.

2018 ◽  
Vol 74 (6) ◽  
pp. 1318-1338 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Higgins

Purpose Digital curation addresses the technical, administrative and financial ecology required to ensure that digital information remains accessible and usable over the long term. The purpose of this paper is to trace digital curation’s disciplinary emergence and examine its position within the information sciences domain in terms of theoretical principles, using a case study of developments in the UK and the USA. Design/methodology/approach Theoretical principles regarding disciplinary development and the identity of information science as a discipline are applied to a case study of the development of digital curation in the UK and the USA to identify the maturity of digital curation and its position in the information science gamut. Findings Digital curation is identified as a mature discipline which is a sub-meta-discipline of information science. As such digital curation has reach across all disciplines and sub-disciplines of information science and has the potential to become the overarching paradigm. Practical implications These findings could influence digital curation’s development from applied discipline to profession within both its educational and professional domains. Originality/value The disciplinary development of digital curation within dominant theoretical models has not hitherto been articulated.


2016 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
David Paul Belesky ◽  
Dariusz Piotr Malinowski

Grasslands, including managed grazinglands, represent one of the largest ecosystems on the planet. Managed grazinglands in particular tend to occupy marginal climatic and edaphic resource zones, thus exacerbating responses in net primary productivity relative to changes in system resources, including anthropogenic factors. Climate dynamism, as evident from the fossil record, appears to be a putative feature of our planet. Recent global trends in temperature and precipitation patterns seem to differ from long-term patterns and have been associated with human activities linked with increased greenhouse gas emissions; specifically CO<span><sub>2</sub></span>. Thus grasslands, with their diverse floristic components, and interaction with and dependence upon herbivores, have a remarkable ability to persist and sustain productivity in response to changing resource conditions. This resistance and resilience to change, including uncertain long-term weather conditions, establishes managed grasslands as an important means of protecting food security. We review responses of grassland communities across regions of the USA and consider the responses in productivity and system function with respect to climatic variation. Research is needed to identify plant resources and management technologies that strengthen our ability to capitalize upon physiological and anatomical features prevalent in grassland communities associated with varying growing conditions.


2020 ◽  
Vol 133 ◽  
pp. 106602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandro Luh ◽  
Sara Budinis ◽  
Sara Giarola ◽  
Thomas J. Schmidt ◽  
Adam Hawkes

2017 ◽  
Vol 284 (1848) ◽  
pp. 20162149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristof Benaets ◽  
Anneleen Van Geystelen ◽  
Dries Cardoen ◽  
Lina De Smet ◽  
Dirk C. de Graaf ◽  
...  

Several studies have suggested that covert stressors can contribute to bee colony declines. Here we provide a novel case study and show using radiofrequency identification tracking technology that covert deformed wing virus (DWV) infections in adult honeybee workers seriously impact long-term foraging and survival under natural foraging conditions. In particular, our experiments show that adult workers injected with low doses of DWV experienced increased mortality rates, that DWV caused workers to start foraging at a premature age, and that the virus reduced the workers' total activity span as foragers. Altogether, these results demonstrate that covert DWV infections have strongly deleterious effects on honeybee foraging and survival. These results are consistent with previous studies that suggested DWV to be an important contributor to the ongoing bee declines in Europe and the USA. Overall, our study underlines the strong impact that covert pathogen infections can have on individual and group-level performance in bees.


2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Barthélémy Michalon

Subject area Diplomatic and consular policies; legal aspects of international relations and Asia regional scenario. Study level/applicability Undergraduate. Case overview In April 2012, high-level officials from China and the USA were about to meet in Beijing in the framework of the bilateral Strategic and Economic Dialogue, organized on a yearly basis. The event was always delicate, due to the ambiguous relationship existing between the two countries, which were at the same time rivals and dependent on one another. That time, the tension previous to the meeting increased significantly: a Chinese human rights activist had just sought and obtained diplomatic protection in the US Embassy in Beijing, thus creating an embarrassing situation for both States' foreign departments […] How could they possibly solve this contentious issue without affecting their already sensitive relationship? Expected learning outcomes Analytical: to be aware of the political nature of the current Chinese Government; to realize the concrete and practical implications of an Embassy's special status; to balance two contradictory objectives, in a specific situation where none of them can be fully discarded; to contrast and try to combine long-term goals (in this case, to maintain a functioning relationship between two main world powers) with short-term objectives (in this case, how to deal with a Chinese activist that required protection against his own country's security forces); to find a modus vivendi (conciliation) between values and interests; to get convinced that certain kinds of negotiations cannot be conceived through a “win or lose” approach: in this case, the only way out must be respectful of the two parties' core interests; and to take into account that image preservation (“face-saving”) must be included within any country's objectives in any situation involving diplomatic means. Conceptual: the purpose is to familiarize the students with specific concepts, such as: best alternative to a negotiated agreement (BATNA), which is to be mentioned as part of the discussion (it is not included in the case study itself); interdependence; (purported) Group of Two; asylum and refuge; Immunity; and sending state/receiving state. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email [email protected] to request teaching notes.


2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 243-270
Author(s):  
M. Ziese ◽  
U. Schneider ◽  
A. Meyer-Christoffer ◽  
K. Schamm ◽  
J. Vido ◽  
...  

Abstract. The Global Precipitation Climatology Centre Drought Index (GPCC-DI) provides estimations of precipitation anomalies with respect to long term statistics. It is a combination of the Standardized Precipitation Index with adaptations from Deutscher Wetterdienst (SPI-DWD) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Precipitation data were taken from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and temperature data from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The GPCC-DI is available with several averaging periods of 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 24 and 48 months for different applications. Since spring 2013, the GPCC-DI is calculated operationally and available back to January 2013. Typically it is released at the 10th day of the following month, depending on the availability of the input data. It is calculated on a~regular grid with 1° spatial resolution. All averaging periods are integrated into one netCDF-file for each month. This dataset can be referenced by the DOI:10.5676/DWD_GPCC/DI_M_100 and is available free of charge from the GPCC website ftp://ftp.dwd.de/pub/data/gpcc/html/gpcc_di_doi_download.html.


2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (37) ◽  
pp. 1-248
Author(s):  
Fiona Lobban ◽  
Duncan Appelbe ◽  
Victoria Appleton ◽  
Golnar Aref-Adib ◽  
Johanna Barraclough ◽  
...  

Background Digital health interventions have the potential to improve the delivery of psychoeducation to people with mental health problems and their relatives. Despite substantial investment in the development of digital health interventions, successful implementation into routine clinical practice is rare. Objectives Use the implementation of the Relatives’ Education And Coping Toolkit (REACT) for psychosis/bipolar disorder to identify critical factors affecting uptake and use, and develop an implementation plan to support the delivery of REACT. Design This was an implementation study using a mixed-methods, theory-driven, multiple case study approach. A study-specific implementation theory for REACT based on normalisation process theory was developed and tested, and iterations of an implementation plan to address the key factors affecting implementation were developed. Setting Early-intervention teams in six NHS mental health trusts in England (three in the north and three in the south). Participants In total, 281 staff accounts and 159 relatives’ accounts were created, 129 staff and 23 relatives took part in qualitative interviews about their experiences, and 132 relatives provided demographic data, 56 provided baseline data, 21 provided data at 12 weeks’ follow-up and 20 provided data at 24 weeks’ follow-up. Interventions REACT is an online supported self-management toolkit, offering 12 evidence-based psychoeducation modules and support via a forum, and a confidential direct messaging service for relatives of people with psychosis or bipolar disorder. The implementation intervention was developed with staff and iteratively adapted to address identified barriers. Adaptations included modifications to the toolkit and how it was delivered by teams. Main outcome measures The main outcome was factors affecting implementation of REACT, assessed primarily through in-depth interviews with staff and relatives. We also assessed quantitative measures of delivery (staff accounts and relatives’ invitations), use of REACT (relatives’ logins and time spent on the website) and the impact of REACT [relatives’ distress (General Health Questionnaire-28), and carer well-being and support (Carer Well-being and Support Scale questionnaire)]. Results Staff and relatives were generally positive about the content of REACT, seeing it as a valuable resource that could help services improve support and meet clinical targets, but only within a comprehensive service that included face-to-face support, and with some additional content. Barriers to implementation included high staff caseloads and difficulties with prioritising supporting relatives; technical difficulties of using REACT; poor interoperability with trust information technology systems and care pathways; lack of access to mobile technology and information technology training; restricted forum populations leading to low levels of use; staff fears of managing risk, online trolling, or replacement by technology; and uncertainty around REACT’s long-term availability. There was no evidence that REACT would reduce staff time supporting relatives (which was already very low), and might increase it by facilitating communication. In all, 281 staff accounts were created, but only 57 staff sent relatives invitations. In total, 355 relatives’ invitations were sent to 310 unique relatives, leading to the creation of 159 relatives’ accounts. The mean number of logins for relatives was 3.78 (standard deviation 4.43), but with wide variation from 0 to 31 (median 2, interquartile range 1–8). The mean total time spent on the website was 40.6 minutes (standard deviation 54.54 minutes), with a range of 0–298 minutes (median 20.1 minutes, interquartile range 4.9–57.5 minutes). There was a pattern of declining mean scores for distress, social dysfunction, depression, anxiety and insomnia, and increases in relatives’ well-being and eHealth literacy, but no changes were statistically significant. Conclusions Digital health interventions, such as REACT, should be iteratively developed, evaluated, adapted and implemented, with staff and service user input, as part of a long-term strategy to develop integrated technology-enabled services. Implementation strategies must instil a sense of ownership for staff and ensure that they have adequate training, risk protocols and resources to deliver the technology. Cost-effectiveness and impact on workload and inequalities in accessing health care need further testing, along with the generalisability of our findings to other digital health interventions. Limitations REACT was offered by the same team running the IMPlementation of A Relatives’ Toolkit (IMPART) study, and was perceived by staff and relatives as a time-limited research study rather than ongoing clinical service, which affected engagement. Access to observational data was limited. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16267685. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health Services and Delivery Research; Vol. 8, No. 37. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Filippo Calì Quaglia ◽  
Silvia Terzago ◽  
Jost von Hardenberg

AbstractThis study considers a set of state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems (ECMWF, MF, UKMO, CMCC, DWD and the corresponding multi-model ensemble) and quantifies their added value (if any) in predicting seasonal and monthly temperature and precipitation anomalies over the Mediterranean region compared to a simple forecasting method based on the ERA5 climatology (CTRL) or the persistence of the ERA5 anomaly (PERS). This analysis considers two starting dates, May 1st and November 1st and the forecasts at lead times up to 6 months for each year in the period 1993–2014. Both deterministic and probabilistic metrics are employed to derive comprehensive information on the forecast quality in terms of association, reliability/resolution, discrimination, accuracy and sharpness. We find that temperature anomalies are better reproduced than precipitation anomalies with varying spatial patterns across different forecast systems. The Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) shows the best agreement in terms of anomaly correlation with ERA5 precipitation, while PERS provides the best results in terms of anomaly correlation with ERA5 temperature. Individual forecast systems and MME outperform CTRL in terms of accuracy of tercile-based forecasts up to lead time 5 months and in terms of discrimination up to lead time 2 months. All seasonal forecast systems also outperform elementary forecasts based on persistence in terms of accuracy and sharpness.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 455-475 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mansour Almazroui ◽  
Fahad Saeed ◽  
Sajjad Saeed ◽  
M. Nazrul Islam ◽  
Muhammad Ismail ◽  
...  

Abstract We analyze data of 27 global climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), and examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the African continent during the twenty-first century. The temperature and precipitation changes are computed for two future time slices, 2030–2059 (near term) and 2070–2099 (long term), relative to the present climate (1981–2010), for the entire African continent and its eight subregions. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projected a continuous and significant increase in the mean annual temperature over all of Africa and its eight subregions during the twenty-first century. The mean annual temperature over Africa for the near (long)-term period is projected to increase by 1.2 °C (1.4 °C), 1.5 °C (2.3 °C), and 1.8 °C (4.4 °C) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for weak, moderate, and strong forcing, referenced as SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The future warming is not uniform over Africa and varies regionally. By the end of the twenty-first century, the largest rise in mean annual temperature (5.6 °C) is projected over the Sahara, while the smallest rise (3.5 °C) is over Central East Africa, under the strong forcing SSP5-8.5 scenario. The projected boreal winter and summer temperature patterns for the twenty-first century show spatial distributions similar to the annual patterns. Uncertainty associated with projected temperature over Africa and its eight subregions increases with time and reaches a maximum by the end of the twenty-first century. On the other hand, the precipitation projections over Africa during the twenty-first century show large spatial variability and seasonal dependency. The northern and southern parts of Africa show a reduction in precipitation, while the central parts of Africa show an increase, in future climates under the three reference scenarios. For the near (long)-term periods, the area-averaged precipitation over Africa is projected to increase by 6.2 (4.8)%, 6.8 (8.5)%, and 9.5 (15.2)% under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The median warming simulated by the CMIP6 model ensemble remains higher than the CMIP5 ensemble over most of Africa, reaching as high as 2.5 °C over some regions, while precipitation shows a mixed spatial pattern.


2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (12) ◽  
pp. 4515-4533 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathy Pegion ◽  
Arun Kumar

Abstract The National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Prediction Center uses statistical tools together with the Climate Forecast System (CFS) to produce forecasts for seasonal outlooks of U.S. temperature and precipitation. They are combined using an optimal weighting procedure that depends on a skill mask consisting of the average historical forecast skill of each tool. However, it is likely that skill during El Niño–Southern Oscillation events is higher and the use of this information in developing forecasts could lead to improved seasonal predictions. This study explores the potential to improve the skill of seasonal predictions by developing an ENSO-conditional skill mask. The conditional masks are developed in a perfect-model framework using the CFS version 2 hindcasts and two indices of ENSO. The skill of the indices in forecasting variations in conditional skill is evaluated. The ENSO-conditional skill masks provide improvements in correlation skill over the unconditional mask when averaged over the globe. The masks are applied to tercile forecasts of seasonal temperature and precipitation during the spring and forecasts are verified in a perfect-model context. Application of the conditional masks to tercile forecasts results in modified Heidke skill scores of more than 10% less than using the average mask for temperature and little difference in skill for precipitation. This is attributed to the larger number of equal chances forecasts when using the conditional masks, particularly for temperature. For precipitation, the skill predicted by the average and conditional masks is frequently below 0.3, leading to low skill regardless of which mask is used.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document