scholarly journals Possible Influence of the Cultivated Land Reclamation on Surface Climate in India: A WRF Model Based Simulation

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Yi Qu ◽  
Feng Wu ◽  
Haiming Yan ◽  
Bangrong Shu ◽  
Xiangzheng Deng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Flux ◽  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Land Reclamation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Cultivated Land ◽  
The Impact

Land use/cover change (LUCC) has become one of the most important factors for the global climate change. As one of the major types of LUCC, cultivated land reclamation also has impacts on regional climate change. Most of the previous studies focused on the correlation and simulation analysis of historical LUCC and climate change, with few explorations for the impacts of future LUCC on regional climate, especially impacts of the cultivated land reclamation. This study used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to forecast the changes of energy flux and temperature based on the future cultivated land reclamation in India and then analyzed the impacts of cultivated land reclamation on climate change. The results show that cultivated land reclamation will lead to a large amount of land conversions, which will overall result in the increase in latent heat flux of regional surface as well as the decrease in sensible heat flux and further lead to changes of regional average temperature. Furthermore, the impact on climate change is seasonally different. The cultivated land reclamation mainly leads to a temperature decrease in the summer, while it leads to a temperature increase in the winter.

scholarly journals Numerical Simulation of the Effects of Grassland Degradation on the Surface Climate in Overgrazing Area of Northwest China

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanfei Li ◽  
Zhaohua Li ◽  
Zhihui Li ◽  
Xiaoli Geng ◽  
Xiangzheng Deng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Grassland Degradation ◽  
Climatic Effects ◽  
Barren Land ◽  
Surface Climate ◽  
The Impact

The climatic effects of LUCC have been a focus of current researches on global climate change. The objective of this study is to investigate climatic effects of grassland degradation in Northwest China. Based on the stimulation of the conversion from grassland to other land use types during the next 30 years, the potential effects of grassland degradation on regional climate in the overgrazing area of Northwest China from 2010 to 2040 have been explored with Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). The analysis results show that grassland will mainly convert into barren land, croplands, and urban land, which accounts for 42%, 48%, and 10% of the total converted grassland area, respectively. The simulation results indicate that the WRF model is appropriate for the simulation of the impact of grassland degradation on climate change. The grassland degradation during the next 30 years will result in the decrease of latent heat flux, which will further lead to the increase of temperature in summer, with an increment of 0.4–1.2°C, and the decrease of temperature in winter, with a decrement of 0.2°C. In addition, grassland degradation will cause the decrease of precipitation in both summer and winter, with a decrement of 4–20 mm.

scholarly journals An ensemble approach to assess hydrological models' contribution to uncertainties in the analysis of climate change impact on water resources

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 565-578 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. A. Velázquez ◽  
J. Schmid ◽  
S. Ricard ◽  
M. J. Muerth ◽  
B. Gauvin St-Denis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Structural Complexity ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Over the recent years, several research efforts investigated the impact of climate change on water resources for different regions of the world. The projection of future river flows is affected by different sources of uncertainty in the hydro-climatic modelling chain. One of the aims of the QBic3 project (Québec-Bavarian International Collaboration on Climate Change) is to assess the contribution to uncertainty of hydrological models by using an ensemble of hydrological models presenting a diversity of structural complexity (i.e., lumped, semi distributed and distributed models). The study investigates two humid, mid-latitude catchments with natural flow conditions; one located in Southern Québec (Canada) and one in Southern Bavaria (Germany). Daily flow is simulated with four different hydrological models, forced by outputs from regional climate models driven by global climate models over a reference (1971–2000) and a future (2041–2070) period. The results show that, for our hydrological model ensemble, the choice of model strongly affects the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows. Indicators related to high flows seem less sensitive on the choice of the hydrological model.

scholarly journals The Impact of Incongruous Lake Temperatures on Regional Climate Extremes Downscaled from the CMIP5 Archive Using the WRF Model

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 839-853 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanya L. Spero ◽  
Christopher G. Nolte ◽  
Jared H. Bowden ◽  
Megan S. Mallard ◽  
Jerold A. Herwehe
Keyword(s):  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Thermally Induced ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Southern Florida ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of incongruous lake temperatures is demonstrated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to downscale global climate fields. Unrealistic lake temperatures prescribed by the default WRF configuration cause obvious biases near the lakes and also affect predicted extremes hundreds of kilometers from the lakes, especially during winter. Using these default temperatures for the Great Lakes in winter creates a thermally induced wave in the modeled monthly average sea level pressure field, which reaches southern Florida. Differences of more than 0.5 K in monthly average daily maximum 2-m temperature occur along that wave during winter. Noteworthy changes to temperature variability, precipitation, and mesoscale circulation also occur when the default method is used for downscaling. Consequently, improperly setting lake temperatures for downscaling could result in misinterpreting changes in regional climate and adversely affect applications reliant on downscaled data, even in areas remote from the lakes.

The impact of global climate change on the characteristics of seasons in the Carpathian Basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Csenge Dian ◽  
Rita Pongrácz ◽  
Judit Bartholy ◽  
Attila Talamon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Carpathian Basin ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Heating And Cooling ◽  
The Impact

<p>Similarly to many other regions, warming and extreme weather conditions (e.g. related to temperature and precipitation) are expected to increase due to the effects of climate change in the Carpathian Basin during the 21st century. Consequently, as a result of the clearly detectable warming, the number of frost days in winter decreases and the summer heat waves become more frequent. The transition between winter and summer tends to become shorter and the inter-annual variability is likely to increase. The precise definition of the transition periods between the two extremes of the annual temperature course is very important for several disciplines, e.g. building energy design, where outdoor temperature is a key input to determine the beginning and end of heating and cooling periods. The aim of this research is to examine the possible transformation of the four seasons characteristics of the Carpathian Basin in details using various specific climate indexes (e.g. monthly percentiles, daily temperature fluctuation time series) based on the data of regional climate model simulations taking into account different future scenarios. For this purpose, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are compared to historical runs, and simulated temperature data series are analyzed for the middle and end of the century.</p>

scholarly journals Regional Climate Variability Responses to Future Land Surface Forcing in the Brazilian Amazon

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Zhang ◽  
Jinyan Zhan ◽  
Feng Wu ◽  
Jiao Luo ◽  
Juan Huang
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Brazilian Amazon ◽  
Close Link ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Surface Changes

Tropical deforestation could destabilize regional climate changes. This paper aimed to model the potential climatological variability caused by future forest vulnerability in the Brazilian Amazon over the 21th century. The underlying land surface changes between 2005 and 2100 are first projected based on the respectable output produced by Hurtt et al. Then the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is applied to assess the impacts of future deforestation on regional climate during 2090–2100. The study results show that the forests in the Brazilian Amazon will primarily be converted into dryland cropland and pasture in the northwest part and into cropland/woodland mosaic in the southeast part, with 5.12% and 13.11%, respectively. These land surface changes will therefore lead to the significant reduction of the sum of sensible heat flux and latent heat flux and precipitation and the increase of the surface temperature. Furthermore, the variability of surface temperature is observed with close link to the deforested areas.

Balanced subsampling of future regional climate ensembles of opportunity

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesús Fernández ◽  
María Dolores Frías
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
National Level ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
The Impact

<p>International model intercomparison initiatives, such as CORDEX or CMIP5, along with several relatively recent projects at international and national level, provide a wealth of model simulations of future regional climate. In a recent work, Fernandez et al (2019) collected 196 different future climate change projections over Spain, considering data from ENSEMBLES, ESCENA, EURO- and Med-CORDEX, along with their driving global climate projections from CMIP3 and CMIP5. This ensemble mixed different multi-model initiatives in an ensemble of opportunity, in the sense that it does not respond to any scientific design beyond the exploration of multi-model uncertainty. This ensemble of opportunity is not only the result of the mixture of different initiatives, but also responds to the lack of a balanced experimental design within most of the initiatives. Many of the initiatives -especially those unfunded, such as CORDEX- are carried out on a voluntary basis, with no strong constraint in the global climate models (GCMs) used as boundary conditions or in the number of contributing members per regional climate model (RCM).</p><p>Fernandez et al (2019) found in this ensemble a strong influence of the driving GCM on the regional climate change signal, along with favored GCMs, selected by many regional climate modelling groups to the detriment of GCMs publishing their output later or not at all. In this work, we quantitatively assess the impact of unbalanced GCM-RCM ensembles. For this purpose, we subsampled the ensemble of opportunity to obtain balanced sets of members according to different “what-if” situations: What if all RCMs had contributed a single member to the ensemble? What if each GCM had been dynamically downscaled only once? What if a given GCM/RCM had not contributed to the ensemble? For each hypothesis, there are a number of alternative sub-ensembles, which are used to evaluate uncertainty.</p><p><strong>Acknowledgement:</strong></p><p>This work is partially funded by the Spanish government through MINECO/FEDER co-funded projects INSIGNIA (CGL2016-79210-R) and MULTI-SDM (CGL2015-66583-R). </p><p><strong>References:</strong></p><p>Fernández, J., et al. (2019) Consistency of climate change projections from multiple global and regional model intercomparison projects. Clim Dyn 52:1139. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4181-8</p>

scholarly journals Numerical Evaluation of the Impact of Urbanization on Summertime Precipitation in Osaka, Japan

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hikari Shimadera ◽  
Akira Kondo ◽  
Kundan Lal Shrestha ◽  
Ken Kitaoka ◽  
Yoshio Inoue
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Heat Flux ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Urban Land Use ◽  
Sensible Heat ◽  
Impact Of Urbanization ◽  
The Impact

This study utilized the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.5.1 to evaluate the impact of urbanization on summertime precipitation in Osaka, Japan. The evaluation was conducted by comparing the WRF simulations with the present land use and no-urban land use (replacing “Urban” with “Paddy”) for August from 2006 to 2010. The urbanization increased mean air temperature by 2.1°C in urban areas because of increased sensible heat flux and decreased mean humidity by 0.8 g kg−1because of decreased latent heat flux. In addition, the urbanization increased duration of the southwesterly sea breeze. The urbanization increased precipitation in urban areas and decreased in the surrounding areas. The mean precipitation in urban areas was increased by 20 mm month−1(27% of the total amount without the synoptic-scale precipitation). The precipitation increase was generally due to the enhancement of the formation and development of convective clouds by the increase in sensible heat flux during afternoon and evening time periods. The urbanization in Osaka changes spatial and temporal distribution patterns of precipitation and evaporation, and consequently it substantially affects the water cycle in and around the urban areas of Osaka.

scholarly journals Possible Biogeophysical Effects of Cultivated Land Conversion in Northeast China in 2010–2030

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haiming Yan ◽  
Jinyan Zhan ◽  
Juan Huang ◽  
Tengteng Zhai
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Northeast China ◽  
Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Cultivated Land ◽  
Land Change ◽  
Theoretical Support ◽  
Changing Trends ◽  
The Future ◽  
Flux Increase

There will be substantial cultivated land change in China as the society strives to meet the growing food demands, which will greatly influence the future climate. This study analyzed the possible biogeophysical effects of cultivated land change on the climate in Northeast China during 2010–2030 on the basis of simulation with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. Scenario analysis was first carried out on the possible changing trends of cultivated land. Then the climate effects of the cultivated land change were analyzed on the basis of the simulation with the WRF model. The simulation results indicate that the total cultivated land area in Northeast China will decrease during 2010–2030, mainly converting into urban and built-up land and forests due to the urbanization and governmental policies. Besides, the cultivated land change will lead to the increase of the sensible heat flux in the regions where a lot of cultivated land will change into urban and built-up land, while it will make the latent heat flux increase in the regions where the cultivated land will be mainly converted into forests through influencing the evapotranspiration. All these results can provide theoretical support for implementing the future land management in Northeast China.

Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulations over North America

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Changhai Liu ◽  
Kyoko Ikeda ◽  
Roy Rasmussen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Water System ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Historical Simulation ◽  
The Impact

<p>The NCAR Water System Program has been striving to improve the representation of the water cycle and its future changes in both regional and global models during the past decade. One of our efforts is conducting continental-scale convection-permitting simulations of the current and future climate of North America using the WRF model based atmospheric-hydrological coupling system. The major science objectives of these simulations are: 1) to evaluate the capability of convection-permitting WRF model in capturing orographic precipitation and snow mass balance over the western mountains of North America and convective precipitation in the eastern part of the continent; 2) to assess future changes in seasonal snowfall and snowpack and associated surface hydrological cycles under the CMIP5-projected global warming; 3) to investigate water cycle changes in response to climate warming, including the summertime convective precipitation and associated mesoscale convective storm tracks; and 4) to examine the impact of climate change on severe weather over North America. As such, two phases of convection-permitting climate modeling have been undertaken using 4-km horizontal grid spacing covering most of North America.</p><p>The phase-one effort involves two 13-year simulations as reported in Liu et al. (2017): 1) a historical simulation with initial and boundary conditions from ERA-interim, and 2) a future climate sensitivity simulation, called pseudo-global warming (PGW), with modified reanalysis-derived initial and boundary conditions by adding the CMIP5 ensemble-mean projected climate change. These WRF-downscaled climate change simulations provide a unique high-resolution dataset to the community for studying one possible scenario of regional climate changes and impacts.</p><p>Recognizing that only the thermodynamic future climate impacts can be adequately addressed in the PGW approach, the NCAR Water System team has started conducting a second set (phase II) of current and future simulations at 4-km grid spacing over North America. In these simulations, the WRF model is forced using the weather perturbations derived from the NCAR CESM model 6-hourly output plus the reanalysis-based bias-corrected CMIP5 ensemble mean climate as detailed in Dai et al. (2017). The model domain is also expanded northward to include Canada and the Canadian Arctic. Because storm track changes are permitted, these simulations complement the previous PGW simulations, allowing us to address the impact of dynamic changes in the future warmer climate. We will present some preliminary analysis results of these simulations, with focus on the evaluation of the historical simulation and the added value of convection-permitting resolution and mean climate bias corrections.</p>

scholarly journals The impact of climate change on hydrological patterns in Czech headwater catchments

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1245-1278 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Benčoková ◽  
P. Krám ◽  
J. Hruška
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Forested Catchments ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The aim of this study was to estimate the impacts of anticipated global climate change on runoff and evapotranspiration in small-forested catchments. The investigated Lysina and Pluhův Bor catchments are situated in the Slavkov Forest in the western part of the Czech Republic. To forecast hydrological patterns for the period 2071–2100, outputs from two general circulation models, HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3, were downscaled by an RCAO (regional climate model) which ran the SRES emission scenarios A2 and B2 for each model. Bias-corrected RCAO daily outputs were used in combination with the hydrological model Brook90. Annual runoff is predicted to decline by 6–45%, and impacts on the distribution of monthly flow are predicted to be significant, with summer-autumn decreases of 29–96%, and winter increases of up to ~48% compared to mean flow from 1967–1990. Mean daily flows are estimated to decrease by 63–94% from August to November. These changes would have serious ecological consequences, since streams could regularly dry-up for short periods of time.

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