scholarly journals Solving the Omitted Variables Problem of Regression Analysis Using the Relative Vertical Position of Observations

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan E. Leightner ◽  
Tomoo Inoue
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Vertical Position ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Theoretical Argument ◽  
Omitted Variables ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Government

The omitted variables problem is one of regression analysis’ most serious problems. The standard approach to the omitted variables problem is to find instruments, or proxies, for the omitted variables, but this approach makes strong assumptions that are rarely met in practice. This paper introduces best projection reiterative truncated projected least squares (BP-RTPLS), the third generation of a technique that solves the omitted variables problem without using proxies or instruments. This paper presents a theoretical argument that BP-RTPLS produces unbiased reduced form estimates when there are omitted variables. This paper also provides simulation evidence that shows OLS produces between 250% and 2450% more errors than BP-RTPLS when there are omitted variables and when measurement and round-off error is 1 percent or less. In an example, the government spending multiplier, , is estimated using annual data for the USA between 1929 and 2010.

Impact of Public Spending on National Food Security Mission and Farmers Livelihoods in Tamil Nadu

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-140
Author(s):  
K. Jothi Sivagnanam ◽  
K. Murugan
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Farm Management ◽  
Review Of Literature ◽  
The Third ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Policy Suggestions ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Food Security

National Food Security Mission (NFSM) scheme is one of the flagship schemes for the development farmer’s livelihood. The objective is to achieve self-sufficiency in foodgrains production to improve livelihood, particularly in rice, wheat and pulses. It is providing the modern machinery, farm management and pest management. The article intends to analyse the trends in area, production and productivity of rice in the NFSM and non-NFSM districts in Tamil Nadu. This article is divided into four sections. The first is introductory in nature; the second deals with review of literature. The third section describes the rice production in Tamil Nadu, and the fourth section describes the government spending to the NFSM scheme in Tamil Nadu. Finally, it provides concluding remarks and policy suggestions from the study.

Fiscal Policy and Government Spending

2010 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. F61-F66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Simon Kirby
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Future Generations ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
The Third ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Full Capacity ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Cost

In June the Coalition Government produced a budget that aimed to reduce the government deficit quickly. The plan was based mainly on cuts in current expenditure and reductions in transfers to individuals. There are four possible reasons for reducing the deficit, and all have been used to justify the policy. The first reason might be that the cost of borrowing is currently too high, and the second could be that if deficits persist the markets could lose confidence and the cost of borrowing would rise. The third reason might be that we have to reduce the debt stock in order that we prepare for the next crisis, whilst the fourth, and perhaps most persuasive in the long run, is that it is unfair to borrow so much and therefore reduce the consumption of future generations. If either of the first two had merit there would be a case for swift consolidation, whilst if the third or fourth predominate, we should not be in any rush to act until output is nearer full capacity.

scholarly journals Variable Slope Forecasting Methods and COVID-19 Risk

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 467
Author(s):  
Jonathan Leightner ◽  
Tomoo Inoue ◽  
Pierre Lafaye de Micheaux
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Omitted Variables ◽  
Total Derivative ◽  
Derivative Estimate ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Over Time

There are many real-world situations in which complex interacting forces are best described by a series of equations. Traditional regression approaches to these situations involve modeling and estimating each individual equation (producing estimates of “partial derivatives”) and then solving the entire system for reduced form relationships (“total derivatives”). We examine three estimation methods that produce “total derivative estimates” without having to model and estimate each separate equation. These methods produce a unique total derivative estimate for every observation, where the differences in these estimates are produced by omitted variables. A plot of these estimates over time shows how the estimated relationship has evolved over time due to omitted variables. A moving 95% confidence interval (constructed like a moving average) means that there is only a five percent chance that the next total derivative would lie outside that confidence interval if the recent variability of omitted variables does not increase. Simulations show that two of these methods produce much less error than ignoring the omitted variables problem does when the importance of omitted variables noticeably exceeds random error. In an example, the spread rate of COVID-19 is estimated for Brazil, Europe, South Africa, the UK, and the USA.

scholarly journals Testing the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis in the case of Ethiopia: An autoregressive-distributed lag approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 26-49
Author(s):  
Sisay Demissew Beyene ◽  
Balázs Kotosz
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Ricardian Equivalence ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Government Consumption ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
The Government

The Ricardian equivalence hypothesis (REH) suggests that when the government attempts to stimulate the economy by raising debt-financed government spending, consumption and demand do not increase but rather remain the same. The objective of this study is to test the existence of the REH in Ethiopia, using annual data from 1990 to 2011 and by employing the autoregressive-distributed lag cointegration approach. The study includes three variables (budget deficit, government consumption expenditure, and government debt) which contribute to the REH along with another variable. The results show that only the budget deficit and government consumption expenditure fulfil the REH. However, government debt fails to fulfil it. Thus, limited evidence of the existence of the REH is found in Ethiopia.

scholarly journals PENGARUH SUKU BUNGA, LOAN TO DEPOSITO RATIO (LDR), DAN DANA PIHAK KETIGA (DPK) TERHADAP PENYALURAN KREDIT PADA BANK PERKREDITAN RAKYAT (BPR) DI KABUPATEN BANTUL PERIODE 2014-2015

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 14-20
Author(s):  
Intania Tisna Sari Siswanto ◽  
Risal Rinofah
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Interest Rate

AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui bagaimana pengaruh tingkat suku bunga, Loan to deposit ratio (LDR) dan dana pihak ketiga (DPK) terhadap pemberian kredit pada BPR di Kabupaten Bantul tahun 2014-2018. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah penampang 14 bank dan seri waktu 5 tahun dari 2014 hingga 2018 yang diperoleh dari data tahunan dari Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) dan Bank Indonesia. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah analisis regresi berganda. Tes dilakukan pada hipotesis dengan asumsi klasik menggunakan tingkat signifikansi 0,05 atau 5%. Dari hasil penelitian ini ditemukan bahwa tingkat suku bunga variabel, memiliki pengaruh tidak signifikan terhadap pinjaman kepada bank kredit rakyat di Kabupaten Bantul pada tahun 2014-2018. Sedangkan Loan to deposit ratio dan dana pihak ketiga secara simultan memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap peminjaman di bank kredit rakyat pada 2014-2018 dengan F 535.879 dan signifikan. level 0,000. Dari hasil uji-t dengan tingkat signifikan parsial a = 0,05 atau 5%, ditemukan bahwa variabel suku bunga berpengaruh negatif dan tidak signifikan, rasio Loan to deposit berpengaruh positif dan signifikan dan pihak ketiga dana berpengaruh positif dan signifikan pada pinjaman ke bank kredit. orang dari 2014-2015. Pengaruh besar yang disebabkan (Adjusted R-Square) oleh variabel ketiga pada variabel dependen adalah 96,6% sedangkan sisanya dipengaruhi oleh variabel lain yang tidak diteliti dalam penelitian ini.Kata Kunci :   Suku Bunga, Loan to Deposito Ratio (LDR), Dana Pihak Ketiga (DPK), Penyaluran KreditAbstractThis study aims to determine how the influence of interest rates, Loan to deposit ratio (LDR) and third party funds (DPK) on lending at the Rural Bank (BPR) in Bantul Regency in 2014-2018. The data used in this study are cross section of 14 banks and 5-year time series from 2014 to 2018 obtained from annual data from the Financial Services Authority (OJK) and Bank Indonesia. The analytical method used is multiple regression analysis. Tests carried out on hypotheses with classical assumptions using a significance level of 0.05 or 5%. From the results of this study it was found that the variable interest rates, had a non-significant effect on lending to the people's credit banks in Bantul district in 2014-2018. Whereas Loan to deposit ratio and third party funds simultaneously have a significant influence on lending at people's credit banks in 2014-2018 with an F of 535,879 and significant. level 0,000. From the results of the t-test with a partial significant level a = 0.05 or 5%, it was found that the interest rate variable had a negative and not significant effect, the Loan to deposit ratio had a positive and significant effect and third party funds had a positive and significant effect on lending to credit banks. people of 2014-2015. The big influence caused (Adjusted R-Square) by the third variable on the dependent variable is 96.6% while the rest is influenced by other variables not examined in this study.Keywords :   Interest Rates, Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), Third Party Funds (DPK), Credit Distribution

scholarly journals Public spending and Wagner’s law in Central and Eastern European countries

2012 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 383-390 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irena Szarowská
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Wagner’S Law ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Wagner's Law ◽  
The Government ◽  
Eastern European Countries

This paper provides direct empirical evidence on cyclicality and the long-term and short-term relationship between government spending and output in eight Central and Eastern European countries in a period 1995–2009. We analyzed annual data on government spending in compliance with the COFOG international standard. Although the theory implies that government spending is countercyclical, our research does not prove that. The results confirm cyclical development of government spending on GDP, Wagner’s law and voracity effect in the CEE countries during 1995–2009. We used Johansen cointegration test and the error correction model. Output and government spending are cointegrated for at least 4 from 10 spending functions in every country and it implies a long-term relationship between government spending and output. The government spending functions are procyclical in most CEE countries (93% cases in the sample). Average value of long-run elasticity coefficient is 1.74 for all spending functions, 1.02 for total government spending. We also analyzed the short-run relationship between spending and output. The coefficient values (average is 2.89) confirm the voracity hypothesis, as they suggest that in response to a given shock to real GDP, government spending rises by even more in percentage points.

Optimum Structure of the Banking Market: How Many Banks Are Necessary for Russia?

2006 ◽  
pp. 75-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Moiseev
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Optimum Structure ◽  
Population Number ◽  
The Third ◽  
Banking Market ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Empirical Analysis ◽  
Equilibrium Number

The number of classical banks in the world has reduced. In the majority of countries the number of banks does not exceed 200. The uniqueness of the Russian banking sector is that in this respect it takes the third place in the world after the USA and Germany. The paper reviews the conclusions of the economic theory about the optimum structure of the banking market. The empirical analysis shows that the number of banks in a country is influenced by the size of its territory, population number and GDP per capita. Our econometric estimate is that the equilibrium number of banks in Russia should be in a range of 180-220 units.

FRAUD CONFIRMATION, CLIENT SATISFACTION AND CLIENT LOYALTY

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 39
Author(s):  
Ngurah Pandji Mertha Agung Durya
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Client Satisfaction ◽  
Audit Quality ◽  
Hypothesis Test ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Quality Attributes ◽  
Path Model ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
The Government

<p>This study aims to find evidence, the influence of Audit Quality Attributes, Client Satisfaction and Client Loyalty, which are moderated by Fraud Confirmation. The research was conducted at the BKM, a community-based organization, formed by the Government, through the <em>Kotaku</em> Program. The research used Regression statistical analysis and conducted a hypothesis test. Regression analysis used includes Simple Linear Regression Analysis, Multiple Regression Analysis, and MRA Regression Analysis, and Path Model Linear Regression Analysis. This study also pays attention to the calculation of the coefficient of determination to give an idea of the ability of the model in explaining the phenomenon of Client Satisfaction and Client Loyalty. The result that both partially and simultaneously, Audit Quality Attributes, Fraud Confirmation affected Client Satisfaction and Loyalty. The research also succeeded in proving that Client Satisfaction mediates the effect of Audit Quality Attributes on Client Loyalty, but failed to provide empirical evidence, that the Fraud Confirmation moderated the effect of Audit Quality Attributes on Client Satisfaction and Loyalty. Contribution to audit practices, where it is important to realize Client Satisfaction through Audit Quality Attributes and Fraud Confirmation, especially in situations where Fraud acts are suspected.</p>

Organic Consumer Behavior- Special reference to cereal /cereal products in the southern part of Tamilnadu.

Think India ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 757-767
Author(s):  
J. ELANCHEZHIAN ◽  
Dr. K. KALAICHELVI
Keyword(s):  
Organic Agriculture ◽  
Regulatory Mechanism ◽  
Organic Food ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Consumer Awareness ◽  
Cereal Products ◽  
Food Standards ◽  
Organic Products ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Government

Consumers’ interest in organic products is increasing globally. As IFOAM 2016 report, only 1.2 % of the land has been utilized in organic agriculture method. The overall organic market has achieved 89.7 billion $ in 2016 in that, & 48.4 a billion in sales accounted for the USA and German alone. Total registered organic producer in the worldwide is 2.7 million in that India is the leading country which has 835,200 organic producers. But many of them are a small farmer, and they had shared 1.49 million hectares only. The Government of India (GOI) and the state governments have taken several steps to improve the regulatory mechanism and frame several schemes to incentivize organic farming. 2017 December, Food Standards and Safety Authority of India (FSSAI) have recognized both the certification systems (NPOP and PGS-India) valid for organic food products. From these steps, GOI has tried to create confidence in the organic products, so that, domestic consumers and export countries can trust Indian organic products. But still, the organic sector in India suffered from some unique characteristic that is the absence of proper branding, package, consumer awareness, purchasing power, and supply chain issues (Agarwal, 2018).

Strategic Innovation and Service Delivery in Public Universities in Kenya: A Case of Kenyatta University

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (III) ◽  
pp. 199-211
Author(s):  
Stella Gati Maroa ◽  
Mary Namusonge
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Service Delivery ◽  
Diffusion Of Innovation ◽  
Technology Use ◽  
Public Universities ◽  
Policy Objective ◽  
The Public ◽  
Strategic Innovation ◽  
Use Of Technology ◽  
The Government

Strategic innovation is a strategic tool that can be used to align the institution’s resources and capabilities with opportunities in the external environment in order to enhance survival and long term success of the organization.  Innovation promotes use of technology consequently impacting positively on service delivery. Public universities reforms have been a necessary and on-going policy objective for the Government of Kenya. Innovation as one of the approaches to the reforms is intended to induce an overhaul the public university system to better serve the needs of both government and the citizens with improved delivery of public services. In Kenya technology in public institutions has not been effectively used to enhance service delivery more so institutions where technology use has been embraced, its impact on service delivery has not been assessed effectively. This study applied the institutional theory, diffusion of innovation theory and stakeholders theory of management to determine how strategic innovation at Kenyatta University impacts on service delivery. The general objective of this study therefore was to determine the effect of strategic innovation on service delivery in Kenyatta University. Specific objectives included finding out the influence of eLearning, online student registration and use of e-messaging services on service delivery in Kenyatta University. A population of 72,000 students admitted to Kenyatta University was used from which random sampling was conducted to a sample of 200 students using Nassiuma’s formula. Data was collected by disbursing physically the questionnaires to the students. Descriptive and regression analysis was conducted using SPSS 22 to provide findings on the study. The study conducted a multiple regression analysis to estimate the model for the study. The study had a coefficient of correlation R of 0.912 an indication of strong of correlation between the variables and a coefficient of adjusted R2 was 0.814.This means that there was a significant correlations between the variables and service delivery at Kenyatta University however other factors that are not considered in the research paper contribute approximately 18.6% of the service delivery at Kenyatta University. Therefore, a very extensive further research is highly required to investigate and come up with other factors of the viability to service delivery at Kenyatta University. The study concluded that the strategic innovation of the public universities ranges from the products and services offered and is determined by the technology that is revolutionizing the current global world and has improved the service delivery at Kenyatta University. A strategic innovation brings a lot of advantages and has a great impact on human and business daily life. Therefore, strategic innovation development is the best choice in helping higher institution of learning stay on track.

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