scholarly journals Epistemic Uncertainty Analysis: An Approach Using Expert Judgment and Evidential Credibility

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Hester
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Probability Theory ◽  
Air Force ◽  
Subject Matter ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Expert Judgment ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Expert Analysis ◽  
Physical Attributes ◽  
The Subject

When dealing with complex systems, all decision making occurs under some level of uncertainty. This is due to the physical attributes of the system being analyzed, the environment in which the system operates, and the individuals which operate the system. Techniques for decision making that rely on traditional probability theory have been extensively pursued to incorporate these inherent aleatory uncertainties. However, complex problems also typically include epistemic uncertainties that result from lack of knowledge. These problems are fundamentally different and cannot be addressed in the same fashion. In these instances, decision makers typically use subject matter expert judgment to assist in the analysis of uncertainty. The difficulty with expert analysis, however, is in assessing the accuracy of the expert's input. The credibility of different information can vary widely depending on the expert’s familiarity with the subject matter and their intentional (i.e., a preference for one alternative over another) and unintentional biases (heuristics, anchoring, etc.). This paper proposes the metric of evidential credibility to deal with this issue. The proposed approach is ultimately demonstrated on an example problem concerned with the estimation of aircraft maintenance times for the Turkish Air Force.

Decision Theory and Allocating Decision Making in the Firm

2021 ◽  
pp. 209-226
Author(s):  
Julian Velasco
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Theory ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Subject Matter ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Basic Principles ◽  
Business Organisation ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Law ◽  
Different Levels

Sometimes it is possible to deal productively with the subject matter of choosing and making decisions without actually settling upon any particular theory of choice. This is the case in the law of business organisations, which does not settle upon a theory of choice because it does not consider itself the ultimate decision maker. Rather, the law develops rules to allocate decision-making authority among the various parties. Utilising only a few basic principles of decision theory, the law of business organisation creates a structure for allocating decision-making responsibility on many different levels. However, it leaves the ultimate decision makers free not only to make substantive decisions for themselves but also to select from among the various theories of choice for doing so.

The logic of uncertainty in law and life

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-206
Author(s):  
Kevin M Clermont
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Probability Theory ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Legal Reasoning ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Degrees Of Belief ◽  
Legal Decision ◽  
Central Interest ◽  
Everyday Reasoning

Abstract My central interest is decision making in the presence of epistemic uncertainty. A method appropriate for both specialized inquiries and everyday reasoning is based on credal logic, which employs multivalent degrees of belief rather than traditional probability theory. It accounts for epistemic uncertainty as unallocated belief. It holds that, when facing real uncertainty, if a person believes a and believes b, then the person believes a and b together. This brand of multivalent logic underlies and justifies how legal decision makers and the rest of us find facts in a world infused with epistemic uncertainty. Indeed, this article closes by showing the equivalence of multivalent logic and inference to the best explanation. By demonstrating this similarity in reasoning, I aim to shore up our faith in the logic of traditional legal reasoning.

The role of agency in project initiation decisions

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 518-535 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Mullaly
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Personal Characteristics ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Organizational Dynamics ◽  
Substantive Theory ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Board Level

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of decision rules and agency in supporting project initiation decisions, and the influences of agency on decision-making effectiveness. Design/methodology/approach – The study this paper is based upon used grounded theory methodology, and sought to understand the influences of individual decision makers on project initiation decisions within organizations. Data collection involved 28 participants who were involved in project initiation decisions within their organizations, who discussed the process of project initiation in their organization and their role within that process. Findings – The study demonstrates that the overall effectiveness of project initiation decisions is a product of agency, process effectiveness or rule effectiveness. The employment of agency can have a direct influence on decision-making effectiveness, it can compensate for organizational inadequacies of a process or political nature, and it can be constrained in the evidence of formal and effective organizational practices. Research limitations/implications – While agency was recognized by all participants, there are clearly circumstances where actors perceive the ability to exercise agency to be externally constrained. The study is exploratory, contributing to the development of substantive theory. Theory testing as well as a more in-depth investigation of the underlying drivers of agency would be valuable. Practical implications – The study provides executives and individuals supporting the initiation of projects with insights on how to effectively influence the effectiveness of project initiation decisions, and the degree to which personal characteristics influence organizational dynamics. Originality/value – Most discussions of agency has been framed the subject as an executive- or board-level phenomenon. The current study demonstrates that agency is in fact being perceived and operationalized at all levels. Those demonstrating agency in the majority of instances in this study do so in exercising stewardship behaviours. This has important implications for how agency is perceived by executives, and by how agency is exercised by actors at all levels of the organization.

scholarly journals Novel Parameterized Distance Measures on Hesitant Fuzzy Sets with Credibility Degree and Their Application in Decision-Making

Symmetry ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 557 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiaru Li ◽  
Fangwei Zhang ◽  
Qiang Li ◽  
Jing Sun ◽  
Janney Yee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Fuzzy Sets ◽  
Cardinal Number ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Distance Measures ◽  
Hesitant Fuzzy Set ◽  
Hesitant Fuzzy Sets ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Relationship

The subject of this study is to explore the role of cardinality of hesitant fuzzy element (HFE) in distance measures on hesitant fuzzy sets (HFSs). Firstly, three parameters, i.e., credibility factor, conservative factor, and a risk factor are introduced, thereafter, a series of novel distance measures on HFSs are proposed using these three parameters. These newly proposed distance measures handle the relationship between the cardinal number and the element values of hesitant fuzzy set well, and are suitable to combine subjective and objective decision-making information. When using these functions, decision makers with different risk preferences are allowed to give different values for these three parameters. In particular, this study transfers the hesitance degree index to a credibility of the values in HFEs, which is consistent with people’s intuition. Finally, the practicability of the newly proposed distance measures is verified by two examples.

scholarly journals Unwanted Conflict? The Analysis of the Impact of Misperception, Beliefs and Psychology of President Nasser at the Outbreak of the Six Day War

2019 ◽  
Vol 01 (02) ◽  
pp. 1950003
Author(s):  
Janko Šćepanović
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Structural Explanation ◽  
Defining Moments ◽  
The Us ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Six Day War ◽  
The Impact

The Six Day War was one of the most defining moments in the history of the Modern Middle East. This paper seeks to add to the existing scholarship on the subject by going beyond the structural explanation. It gives special attention to the role of unit-level variables like perception, personality, and political psychology of decision-makers. As one scholar noted, threats are not perceived in a vacuum, and are, instead, products of complex synthesis of subjective appraisal of events by the decision-makers. The focus will be on the beliefs and perceptions of the most impactful actor in this crisis: Egyptian President Nasser. As will be argued, his decision-making was shaped by his experience with foreign imperialism, a general misconception of super power intentions, an incorrect analogy between two crucial crisis situations with Israel: the February 1960 Rotem Crisis, and the build-up to the June War in 1967, and especially his complicated relations with the US leaders.

scholarly journals Bargaining structure and bargaining scope in New Zealand: the climate of employer opinion

1970 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian McAndrew
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Subject Matter ◽  
Management Strategy ◽  
Operational Decisions ◽  
Labour Relations ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Legal Restrictions ◽  
Employer Support ◽  
Current Union

The Labour Relations Act 1987 removed legal restrictions on the subject matter of bargaining. This article reports the results of a survey of employer opinion on current union involvement in plant decision making and on future bargaining scope. Little current union involvement is reported in either operational decisions or more basic management strategy decisions. Some limited employer support is found for the notion that bargaining scope should expand with decentralization of the bargaining structure.

scholarly journals ARAS-FUCOM approach for VPAF fighter aircraft selection

2021 ◽  
pp. 53-62
Author(s):  
Pham Van Hoan ◽  
Yonghoon Ha
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Air Force ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Fighter Aircraft ◽  
Product Method ◽  
Final Weight ◽  
Ranking Of Alternatives ◽  
The Military ◽  
Consistency Method

Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods are systematical science projects to help decision-makers reach accurate decisions. Applying MCDM methods in the military is important because accurate decision making is the deciding factor for success and can reduce expenditure and increase defense capability. The full consistency method (FUCOM), one of the methods in the MCDM group, has many advantages, and its results are reliable. This paper aims to evaluate and select an appropriate fighter aircraft for Vietnam People’s Air Force. Using FUCOM as a decision-making process, we find the final weight values of criteria and apply the additive ratio assessment (ARAS) method to derive the final ranking of alternatives to comply with criteria. Sensitivity analysis is conducted and the result is compared with the weighted product method to substantiate the sturdiness of the proposed method. The results show the Su-35 as the best available solution.

Decision and game theory

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristina Bicchieri
Keyword(s):  
Game Theory ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Theory ◽  
Subject Matter ◽  
Individual Decision Making ◽  
Conflict And Cooperation ◽  
Intentional Agent ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Right ◽  
Subject Making

Decision theory studies individual decision-making in situations in which an individual’s choice neither affects nor is affected by other individuals’ choices; while game theory studies decision-making in situations where individuals’ choices do affect each other. Decision theory asks questions like: what does it mean to choose rationally? How should we make choices when the consequences of our actions are uncertain? Buying insurance and deciding which job to take are examples of the kind of decisions studied by this discipline. Game theory instead applies to all decisions that have a strategic component. The choices of an oligopolist, voting strategies, military tactical problems, deterrence, but also common phenomena such as threatening, promising, conflict and cooperation are its subject matter. In a strategic situation, the goal is not just to choose rationally, but to choose in such a way that a mutual solution is achieved, so that choices ‘coordinate’ in the right way. The formal methods developed by game theory do not require that the subject making a choice be an intentional agent: coordinated interaction between animals or computers can be successfully modelled as well.

Gender justice in financial markets

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roseanne Russell ◽  
Charlotte Villiers
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Justice ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Business Case ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Gender Justice ◽  
Women Directors ◽  
Normative Foundation ◽  
The Subject

Financial markets have often been represented and treated as gender-neutral domains despite the consequences of their operation and the structure of their institutions being deeply gendered. In the post-financial crisis period the contribution of women to financial markets (whether as creditors, entrepreneurs, or consumers) has been the subject of intense interest. Particular attention has been paid to the identity of financial market decision-makers. A lack of women’s representation in the boardrooms of influential companies is considered problematic. In response, financial market actors have emphasized the “business case” for boardroom diversity. While the identity of corporate decision-makers is an important aspect of “gender-just” financial markets, the “business case” for reform lacks a secure theoretical and normative foundation. Instead, an alternative argument for women directors with a greater emphasis on social justice feminism is necessary if gender justice in financial market decision-making is realistically to be achieved.

Formal Epistemology

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Douven ◽  
Jonah N. Schupbach
Keyword(s):  
Probability Theory ◽  
Computer Simulations ◽  
Subject Matter ◽  
Social Epistemology ◽  
Analytic Philosophy ◽  
Theory Of Knowledge ◽  
Formal Epistemology ◽  
The Subject

Formal epistemology is a young but vibrant field of research in analytic philosophy characterized by both its matter and its method. The subject matter of this field is epistemology, the theory of knowledge. The method for investigating the subject matter of epistemology involves the use of formal, logicomathematical devices. This chapter highlights the major achievements of formal epistemology so far and gives a sense of what can be accomplished by addressing problems from mainstream epistemology with the use of logic, probability theory, computer simulations, and other formal tools. The historical roots of the field are also described, and there is a discussion of new questions that have been raised by formal epistemology that should also be of interest to mainstream epistemologists. We also pay attention to the currently emerging subfield of formal social epistemology.

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