scholarly journals Solar Energy Prediction for Malaysia Using Artificial Neural Networks

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamer Khatib ◽  
Azah Mohamed ◽  
K. Sopian ◽  
M. Mahmoud
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Clearness Index ◽  
Energy Prediction ◽  
Global Solar Irradiation ◽  
Artificial Neural

This paper presents a solar energy prediction method using artificial neural networks (ANNs). An ANN predicts a clearness index that is used to calculate global and diffuse solar irradiations. The ANN model is based on the feed forward multilayer perception model with four inputs and one output. The inputs are latitude, longitude, day number, and sunshine ratio; the output is the clearness index. Data from 28 weather stations were used in this research, and 23 stations were used to train the network, while 5 stations were used to test the network. In addition, the measured solar irradiations from the sites were used to derive an equation to calculate the diffused solar irradiation, a function of the global solar irradiation and the clearness index. The proposed equation has reduced the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in estimating the diffused solar irradiation compared with the conventional equation. Based on the results, the average MAPE, mean bias error and root mean square error for the predicted global solar irradiation are 5.92%, 1.46%, and 7.96%. The MAPE in estimating the diffused solar irradiation is 9.8%. A comparison with previous work was done, and the proposed approach was found to be more efficient and accurate than previous methods.

scholarly journals Prediction of Horizontal Daily Global Solar Irradiation Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) in the Castile and León Region, Spain

Agronomy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 96
Author(s):  
Francisco J. Diez ◽  
Luis M. Navas-Gracia ◽  
Leticia Chico-Santamarta ◽  
Adriana Correa-Guimaraes ◽  
Andrés Martínez-Rodríguez
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Predictive Modelling ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Markov Analysis ◽  
Global Solar Irradiation ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Hidden Layer

This article evaluates horizontal daily global solar irradiation predictive modelling using artificial neural networks (ANNs) for its application in agricultural sciences and technologies. An eight year data series (i.e., training networks period between 2004–2010, with 2011 as the validation year) was measured at an agrometeorological station located in Castile and León, Spain, owned by the irrigation advisory system SIAR. ANN models were designed and evaluated with different neuron numbers in the input and hidden layers. The only neuron used in the outlet layer was the global solar irradiation simulated the day after. Evaluated values of the input data were the horizontal daily global irradiation of the current day [H(t)] and two days before [H(t−1), H(t−2)], the day of the year [J(t)], and the daily clearness index [Kt(t)]. Validated results showed that best adjustment models are the ANN 7 model (RMSE = 3.76 MJ/(m2·d), with two inputs ([H(t), Kt(t)]) and four neurons in the hidden layer) and the ANN 4 model (RMSE = 3.75 MJ/(m2·d), with two inputs ([H(t), J(t)]) and two neurons in the hidden layer). Thus, the studied ANN models had better results compared to classic methods (CENSOLAR typical year, weighted moving mean, linear regression, Fourier and Markov analysis) and are practically easier as they need less input variables.

A New Approach for Meteorological Variables Prediction at Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Using Artificial Neural Networks: Application for Sizing and Maintaining Photovoltaic Systems

2012 ◽  
Vol 134 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamer Khatib ◽  
Azah Mohamed ◽  
M. Mahmoud ◽  
K. Sopian
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Ambient Temperature ◽  
Meteorological Variables ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Prediction Approach

This research presents a new meteorological variables prediction approach for Malaysia using artificial neural networks. The developed model predicts four meteorological variables using sun shine ratio, day number, and location coordinates. These meteorological variables are solar energy, ambient temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity. However, three statistical values are used to evaluate the proposed model. These statistical values are mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean bias error (MBE), and root mean square error (RMSE). Based on results, the developed model predicts accurately the four meteorological variables. The MAPE, RMSE, and MBE in predicting solar radiation are 1.3%, 5.8 (1.8%), and 0.9 (0.3%), respectively, while the MAPE, RMSE, and MBE values for ambient temperature prediction are 1.3%, 0.4 (1.7%), and 0.1 (0.4%), respectively. In addition, the MAPE, RMSE, and MBE values in relative humidity prediction are 3.2%, 3.2, and 0.2. As for wind speed prediction, it is the worst in accuracy among the predicted variables because the MAPE, RMSE, and MBE values are 28.9%, 0.5 (31.3%), and 0.02 (1.25%). Such a developed model helps in sizing photovoltaic (PV) systems using solar energy and ambient temperature records. Moreover, wind speed and relative humidity records could be used in estimating dust concentration group which leads to dust deposition on a PV system.

scholarly journals Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Direct Solar Irradiation

2011 ◽  
Vol 2011 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Mubiru
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Direct Solar Radiation ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Direct Solar Irradiation

This paper explores the possibility of developing a prediction model using artificial neural networks (ANNs), which could be used to estimate monthly average daily direct solar radiation for locations in Uganda. Direct solar radiation is a component of the global solar radiation and is quite significant in the performance assessment of various solar energy applications. Results from the paper have shown good agreement between the estimated and measured values of direct solar irradiation. A correlation coefficient of 0.998 was obtained with mean bias error of 0.005 MJ/m2 and root mean square error of 0.197 MJ/m2. The comparison between the ANN and empirical model emphasized the superiority of the proposed ANN prediction model. The application of the proposed ANN model can be extended to other locations with similar climate and terrain.

Estimation of hourly global solar irradiation on tilted planes from horizontal one using artificial neural networks

Energy ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 166-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilles Notton ◽  
Christophe Paoli ◽  
Siyana Vasileva ◽  
Marie Laure Nivet ◽  
Jean-Louis Canaletti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Global Solar Irradiation ◽  
Artificial Neural

scholarly journals Mapping and Estimation of Monthly Global Solar Irradiation in Different Zones in Souss-Massa Area, Morocco, Using Artificial Neural Networks

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Nait Mensour ◽  
S. Bouaddi ◽  
B. Abnay ◽  
B. Hlimi ◽  
A. Ihlal
Keyword(s):  
Solar Energy ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Kriging Interpolation ◽  
Solar Pv ◽  
Energy Potential ◽  
Global Solar Irradiation ◽  
Interpolation Technique ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Hidden Layer

Solar radiation data play an important role in solar energy research. However, in regions where the meteorological stations providing these data are unavailable, strong mapping and estimation models are needed. For this reason, we have developed a model based on artificial neural network (ANN) with a multilayer perceptron (MLP) technique to estimate the monthly average global solar irradiation of the Souss-Massa area (located in the southwest of Morocco). In this study, we have used a large database provided by NASA geosatellite database during the period from 1996 to 2005. After testing several models, we concluded that the best model has 25 nodes in the hidden layer and results in a minimum root mean square error (RMSE) equal to 0.234. Furthermore, almost a perfect correlation coefficient R=0.988 was found between measured and estimated values. This developed model was used to map the monthly solar energy potential of the Souss-Massa area during a year as estimated by the ANN and designed with the Kriging interpolation technique. By comparing the annual average solar irradiation between three selected sites in Souss-Massa, as estimated by our model, and six European locations where large solar PV plants are deployed, it is apparent that the Souss-Massa area is blessed with higher solar potential.

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