scholarly journals Role of Money in Smaller Pacific Island Countries

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
T. K. Jayaraman ◽  
Chee-Keong Choong
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Solomon Islands ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Pacific Island ◽  
Political Independence ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pacific Island Countries

Pacific island countries (PICs), which attained political independence, are open economies with very small manufacturing base and narrow range of exports of copra and tuna. They are highly dependent on imports ranging from food and mineral fuels to intermediate and capital goods and transport machinery. Four of the 14 PICs, namely Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, and Vanuatu, have independent currencies with usual paraphernalia of central banks under fixed exchange rate regimes. Their financial sectors are small and with undeveloped money and capital markets. The nominal exchange rate as an anchor has served the four PICs well by keeping inflation low. The objective of the paper is to investigate whether money has played any significant part in output growth as well as determination of prices in PICs. The findings are that broad money (M2) and exchange rate have a long run as well as short-run casual relationship with both output and prices in all PICs.

scholarly journals Roles of Political and Economic Environments on Agricultural Commodity Import Demand in Developing Economy: A Case Study of Rice Sub-Sector in Nigeria

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (12) ◽  
pp. 84
Author(s):  
Sunday B. Akpan ◽  
Glory E. Emmanuel ◽  
Inimfon V. Patrick
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capacity Utilization ◽  
Import Demand ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Domestic Production ◽  
World Price ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Industrial Capacity

<p>Nigeria is currently the largest importer of milled rice in the world. The country has implemented several trade policies, set up institutions and incentives to boost domestic production with the intention to meet both domestic and international demands. Despite these attempts and favorable climatic, manpower and edaphic conditions in the country, Nigeria still spent millions of dollars on annual basis on rice imports. Based on this assertion, the study rather examined the roles of political and economic environments on rice import demand from 1960 to 2014 in Nigeria. Time series data were obtained from FAO, Central Bank of Nigeria and National Bureau of Statistics as well as World Bank. Augmented Dickey-Fuller-GLS unit root test showed that all series were integrated of order one. The long-run and short-run elasticity of rice import demand were determined using the techniques of co-integration and error correction models. The trend in rice import revealed that, the country had witnessed significant average positive exponential growth rate of about 15.975% in rice import from 1960 to 2014. The empirical results revealed that, the long run import demand function of rice responded negatively to the world price, industrial capacity utilization, nominal exchange rate, and the value of gross domestic production; whereas, it reacted positively to period of civilian rule, nominal value of external reserve, period of liberalization and the net volume of credit to the entire economy. The symmetric adjustment coefficient of rice import demand to a long run equilibrium stood at 39.65% per annum. In the short run, rice import had a significant negative and elastic relationship with the domestic and world price of rice; while it has significant positive inelastic association with external reserve and net credit to the economy. Based on these results; it is recommended that, the Nigeria government should designed programmes and incentives to boost industrial capacity utilization in the country. Markets determine nominal exchange rate should prevail in the economy. The country should regulate its foreign reserve policy by setting a threshold, above which excess deposit should be plough back to the domestic economy inform of investments rather than support excessive importation.</p>

scholarly journals DETERMINANTS OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE IN ETHIOPIA

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 183-210
Author(s):  
Nandeeswara Rao ◽  
TassewDufera Tolcha
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Capital Inflow ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
The Real ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Real exchange rate has direct effects on trade particularly on international trade and has indirect effects on productions and employments, so it is crucial to understand the factors which determine its variations. This study analyses the main determinants of the real exchange rate and the dynamic adjustment of the real exchange rate following shocks to those determinants using yearly Ethiopian time series data covering the period 1971 to 2010. It begins with a review of literatures on Exchange rate, real exchange rate, determinants of the real exchange rate and provides an updated background on the exchange rate system in Ethiopia. An empirical model linking the real exchange rate to its theoretical determinants is then specified. This study had employed the cointegration and vector autoregression (VAR) analysis with impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to provide robust long run effects and short run dynamic effects on the real exchange rate. Share of investment, foreign exchange reserve, capital inflow and government consumption of non-tradable goods were the variable that have been found to have a long run relationship with the real exchange rate. The estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study indicates that about a third of the variation in the real exchange rate from its equilibrium level is corrected within a year. The regression result of VECM reveals that terms of trade, nominal exchange rate, and one period lag of capital flow were the variables significantly affects the real exchange rate in the short run. However, the impulse response and variance decomposition analysis shows a better picture of the short run dynamics. The their analysis provided evidence that the Shocks to terms of trade, nominal exchange rate, capital inflow and share of investment have persistent effects on the real exchange rate in the short run. In general the regression results of both long run and short run models mostly suggest that the fluctuations of real exchange rates are predominantly responses to monetary policies shocks rather than fiscal policy shocks.

scholarly journals An ECM Approach for Long Run Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate and Output Growth: Evidence from Bangladesh

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khnd Md Mostafa Kamal
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Currency exchange rate is an important aspect in modern economy which indicates the strength of domestic currency with respect to international currency. This study uses 42 years’ (1972 to 2013) time series data for Bangladesh in order to empirically determine whether the real exchange rate has significant impact on output growth for Bangladesh by using error correction model (ECM).The time series econometrics properties of the data series have been thoroughly investigated to apply ECM approach. The empirical evidence suggests mixed results; in the short run low exchange rate has positive significant effect while in the long run output growth is positively affected high exchange rate pass through.Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 63(2):105-110, 2015 (July)

Exchange rate volatility and exports from India: a commodity-level panel data analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-44
Author(s):  
Chandan Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThis study aims to examine the relationship between exchange rate risk and export at commodity level for the Indian case.Design/methodology/approachThe monthly panel data used for analysis are at a disaggregated level, which cover around 100 products, encompassing all merchandize sectors for the period spanning from 2012:12 to 2017:11. To measure the exchange rate volatility, the authors use real as well as nominal exchange rate concepts and predict the volatility of exchange rate using the autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic-based model. They use pooled mean group, mean group and common correlated effects mean group estimator that is suitable for the objectives and data frequency.FindingsThe empirical analysis indicates both short- and long-term negative effects of exchange rate variations on exporting. Specifically, in the long run, real exchange rate as well as nominal exchange rate volatility has significant effects on export performance, yet, the effects of uncertainty of nominal exchange rate is much severe and intense. In the short run, it is the nominal exchange rate uncertainty that hurts exports from India. Nevertheless, the short-run effect is much lesser than the long-run, supporting the argument that the short-term exchange rate risk can be hedged, at least partially, through financial instruments; however, uncertainty of the long-term horizon cannot be hedged easily and cost-effectively.Practical implicationsReducing uncertainty and attaining stability in exchange rate and price level should be an important policy objective in developing countries such as India to achieve higher export growth, both in the short and long run.Originality/valueUnlike previous studies, this paper tests the relationship using micro-level data and uses advanced econometric techniques that are likely to provide more precise information regarding the association between exchange rate volatility and trade flows.

Dynamic Effects of Exchange Rate Movements on Productivity Levels: New Evidence From Nigeria Based on NARDL

2021 ◽  
pp. 245513332110507
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Uche ◽  
Sunday Ikedinobi Nwamiri
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

The dynamic relationship between exchange rate movements (appreciation and depreciation) and macroeconomic fundamentals had preoccupied the minds of researchers across the globe. Consequently, extensive research works have been conducted to unravel the puzzle; however, the findings remain inconclusive. The inconclusiveness of these researches may not be unconnected with the choice of model, the omission of key variables and erroneous assumption of symmetric interrelationships of the variables. To mitigate such error and fill the observed research gaps, this study leveraged on the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag to trace the possible asymmetric pass-through of the exchange rate to output growth in Nigeria. The study made use of monthly time series for the period 2000M1–2018M12 for empirical estimations. The empirical findings reveal an asymmetric pass-through from exchange rate to productivity. Exchange rate depreciation led to output retardation in the short run, but neither appreciation nor depreciation of the exchange affected output in the long run. The findings highlight that exchange rate depreciation of the local currency does not improve the country’s productivity. This reveals a disconnection and misalignment between exchange and productivity in Nigeria. The findings call for proper alignment of the Naira exchange rate with the U.S. dollar for improved productivity in the economy.

scholarly journals Keseimbangan Jangka Pendek dan Jangka Panjang Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Dollar Amerika

TRIKONOMIKA ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Horas Djulius ◽  
Yudi Nurdiansyah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Research Result ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Free floating exchange rate system that has been adopted since august 1997 resulted in the strong relationship between macro economic variables with the determination of the exchange rate. Therefore the objective of this research was to explain the effect of these variables to exchange rate in the short run and the long run in the period of 1997 to 2012. The method used was econometrics through error correction model. The research result describes important roles of monetary authority, government and business sector in determining the exchange rate.

scholarly journals Modelling the rand and commodity prices: A Granger causality and cointegration analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 673-690 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xolani Ndlovu ◽  
Eric Schaling ◽  
Paul Alagidede
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Nominal Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Over Time

This paper examines the ‘commodity currency’ hypothesis of the Rand, that is, the postulate that the currency moves in line with commodity prices, and analyses the associated causality using nominal data between 1996 and 2010. We address both the short run and long run relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates. We find that while the levels of the series of both assets are difference stationary, they are not cointegrated. Further, we find the two variables are negatively related, with strong and significant causality running from commodity prices to the exchange rate and not vice versa, implying exogeneity in the determination of commodity prices with respect to the nominal exchange rate. The strength of the relationship is significantly weaker than other OECD commodity currencies. We surmise that the relationship is dynamic over time owing to the portfolio-rebalance argument and the Commodity Terms of Trade (CTT) effect and, in the absence of an error correction mechanism, this disconnect may be prolonged. For commodity and currency market participants, this implies that while futures and forward commodity prices may be useful leading indicators of future currency movements, the price risk management strategies may need to be recalibrated over time.

scholarly journals Impact of real exchange rate fluctuations on aggregate cocoa and coffee exports in Sierra Leone

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2(J)) ◽  
pp. 34-56
Author(s):  
Pabai Fofanah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Sierra Leone ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Regression Result ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short Run

The regression and the vector autoregressive VAR models have been employed in this analysis. I use the autodistributed lag regression model to estimate both the short and the long-run impacts. In the VAR model, orthogonalized impulse response functions are employed to estimate the short-run. The regression result shows that while depreciation of the RER increases aggregate cocoa and coffee exports AGX in the current year, this variable is not significant in determining AGX in Sierra Leone. This is due to the fact that AGX have long gestation periods and until this period is over, suppliers cannot actually raise their output and hence exports. The negative effect of the one period lag of RER variable on AGX can be attributed to the fact that in the long run, depreciation in the nominal exchange rate leads to real exchange rate depreciation. This will lead to increase in cost of imported farming inputs in domestic currency terms. The reduction in imports that follows decreases the output and hence cocoa and coffee exports. However, this variable is not significant in determining AGX in Sierra Leone. An increase in the orthogonalized shock to the first difference of log RER causes a short series of increases in first difference of log AGX followed by a decrease, followed by an increase that dies out after four periods. The null hypothesis that the lag of first difference of log RER does not Granger-cause the lag of first difference of AGX cannot be rejected. The paper concluded that in the short and long-run, the RER should not be taken as policy variable to influence AGX in Sierra Leone.

scholarly journals Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics of the Exchange Rate in Pakistan: Evidence From Unrestricted Purchasing Power Parity Theory

2008 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Arshad Khan ◽  
Abdul Qayyum Abdul Qayyum
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Purchasing Power ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

The main focus of this paper is to measure the speed of adjustment of the exchange rate by means of the persistent profile approach developed by Pesaran and Shin (1996) to examine the symmetry and proportionality assumptions of the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory of exchange rates for the Pak-rupee vis-à-vis the US-dollar exchange rate over the period 1982Q2-2005Q4. Using cointegration and vector error-correction modeling approaches, we find considerable support for the validity of weak-form PPP in Pakistan. Furthermore, the symmetry and proportionality assumptions of PPP are not verified. In the short-run, the exchange rate and foreign prices play a significant role in the convergence process to achieve long-run equilibrium. However, the speed of adjustment is very slow and the persistence profiles suggest that almost 4-5 years are required to eliminate deviations and bring the nominal exchange rate in line with the long-run equilibrium path.

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