scholarly journals Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Medium Scale for Rainfall-Induced Earthflows: Catakli Catchment Area (Cayeli, Rize, Turkey)

2011 ◽  
Vol 2011 ◽  
pp. 1-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. A. Nefeslioglu ◽  
C. Gokceoglu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Catchment Area ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Application Site ◽  
Conditioning Factors ◽  
Medium Scale ◽  
Concrete Type ◽  
Element At Risk ◽  
Temporal Occurrence ◽  
Terrain Units

The aim of the present study is to introduce a probabilistic approach to determine the components of the risk evaluation for rainfall-induced earthflows in medium scale. The Catakli catchment area (Cayeli, Rize, Turkey) was selected as the application site of this study. The investigations were performed in four different stages: (i) evaluation of the conditioning factors, (ii) calculation of the probability of spatial occurrence, (iii) calculation of the probability of the temporal occurrence, and (iv) evaluation of the consequent risk. For the purpose, some basic concepts such as “Risk Cube”, “Risk Plane”, and “Risk Vector” were defined. Additionally, in order to assign the vulnerability to the terrain units being studied in medium scale, a new more robust and more objective equation was proposed. As a result, considering the concrete type of roads in the catchment area, the economic risks were estimated as —in case the failures occur on the terrain units including element at risk, and —in case the risks arise from surrounding terrain units. The risk assessments performed in medium scale considering the technique proposed in the present study will supply substantial economic contributions to the mitigation planning studies in the region.

Simulation of the number of storm overflows considering changes in precipitation dynamics and the urbanisation of the catchment area: a probabilistic approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 126275
Author(s):  
Bartosz Szeląg ◽  
Roman Suligowski ◽  
Jakub Drewnowski ◽  
Francesco De Paola ◽  
Francisco J. Fernandez-Morales ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Catchment Area ◽  
Probabilistic Approach

scholarly journals Debris flow hazard modelling on medium scale: Valtellina di Tirano, Italy

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 2379-2390 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Blahut ◽  
P. Horton ◽  
S. Sterlacchini ◽  
M. Jaboyedoff
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Flow Direction ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Aerial Photographs ◽  
Hazard Zonation ◽  
Conditioning Factors ◽  
Medium Scale ◽  
Debris Flow Hazard

Abstract. Debris flow hazard modelling at medium (regional) scale has been subject of various studies in recent years. In this study, hazard zonation was carried out, incorporating information about debris flow initiation probability (spatial and temporal), and the delimitation of the potential runout areas. Debris flow hazard zonation was carried out in the area of the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (Central Alps, Italy). The complexity of the phenomenon, the scale of the study, the variability of local conditioning factors, and the lacking data limited the use of process-based models for the runout zone delimitation. Firstly, a map of hazard initiation probabilities was prepared for the study area, based on the available susceptibility zoning information, and the analysis of two sets of aerial photographs for the temporal probability estimation. Afterwards, the hazard initiation map was used as one of the inputs for an empirical GIS-based model (Flow-R), developed at the University of Lausanne (Switzerland). An estimation of the debris flow magnitude was neglected as the main aim of the analysis was to prepare a debris flow hazard map at medium scale. A digital elevation model, with a 10 m resolution, was used together with landuse, geology and debris flow hazard initiation maps as inputs of the Flow-R model to restrict potential areas within each hazard initiation probability class to locations where debris flows are most likely to initiate. Afterwards, runout areas were calculated using multiple flow direction and energy based algorithms. Maximum probable runout zones were calibrated using documented past events and aerial photographs. Finally, two debris flow hazard maps were prepared. The first simply delimits five hazard zones, while the second incorporates the information about debris flow spreading direction probabilities, showing areas more likely to be affected by future debris flows. Limitations of the modelling arise mainly from the models applied and analysis scale, which are neglecting local controlling factors of debris flow hazard. The presented approach of debris flow hazard analysis, associating automatic detection of the source areas and a simple assessment of the debris flow spreading, provided results for consequent hazard and risk studies. However, for the validation and transferability of the parameters and results to other study areas, more testing is needed.

Probabilistic approach to fire risk evaluation

1988 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 204-226 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Ramachandran
Keyword(s):  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Fire Risk

Landslide development in a coastal valley in Northern Spain: conditioning factors and temporal occurrence

Geomorphology ◽  
1999 ◽  
Vol 30 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 115-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Montserrat Jiménez Sánchez ◽  
Pedro Farias ◽  
Augusto Rodrı́guez ◽  
Rosa Ana Menéndez Duarte
Keyword(s):  
Northern Spain ◽  
Conditioning Factors ◽  
Temporal Occurrence ◽  
Landslide Development

scholarly journals Improving predictive power of physically based rainfall-induced shallow landslide models: a probabilistic approach

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 495-514 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Raia ◽  
M. Alvioli ◽  
M. Rossi ◽  
R. L. Baum ◽  
J. W. Godt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Message Passing Interface ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Shallow Landslides ◽  
Parallel Execution ◽  
Rainfall Infiltration ◽  
Soil Conditions ◽  
Sufficient Information ◽  
Input Parameters ◽  
Temporal Occurrence

Abstract. Distributed models to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides are based on deterministic laws. These models extend spatially the static stability models adopted in geotechnical engineering, and adopt an infinite-slope geometry to balance the resisting and the driving forces acting on the sliding mass. An infiltration model is used to determine how rainfall changes pore-water conditions, modulating the local stability/instability conditions. A problem with the operation of the existing models lays in the difficulty in obtaining accurate values for the several variables that describe the material properties of the slopes. The problem is particularly severe when the models are applied over large areas, for which sufficient information on the geotechnical and hydrological conditions of the slopes is not generally available. To help solve the problem, we propose a probabilistic Monte Carlo approach to the distributed modeling of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. For this purpose, we have modified the transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis (TRIGRS) code. The new code (TRIGRS-P) adopts a probabilistic approach to compute, on a cell-by-cell basis, transient pore-pressure changes and related changes in the factor of safety due to rainfall infiltration. Infiltration is modeled using analytical solutions of partial differential equations describing one-dimensional vertical flow in isotropic, homogeneous materials. Both saturated and unsaturated soil conditions can be considered. TRIGRS-P copes with the natural variability inherent to the mechanical and hydrological properties of the slope materials by allowing values of the TRIGRS model input parameters to be sampled randomly from a given probability distribution. The range of variation and the mean value of the parameters can be determined by the usual methods used for preparing the TRIGRS input parameters. The outputs of several model runs obtained varying the input parameters are analyzed statistically, and compared to the original (deterministic) model output. The comparison suggests an improvement of the predictive power of the model of about 10% and 16% in two small test areas, that is, the Frontignano (Italy) and the Mukilteo (USA) areas. We discuss the computational requirements of TRIGRS-P to determine the potential use of the numerical model to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in very large areas, extending for several hundreds or thousands of square kilometers. Parallel execution of the code using a simple process distribution and the message passing interface (MPI) on multi-processor machines was successful, opening the possibly of testing the use of TRIGRS-P for the operational forecasting of rainfall-induced shallow landslides over large regions.

Medium-scale hazard mapping for shallow landslide initiation: the Buyukkoy catchment area (Cayeli, Rize, Turkey)

Landslides ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 459-483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hakan A. Nefeslioglu ◽  
Candan Gokceoglu ◽  
Harun Sonmez ◽  
Tolga Gorum
Keyword(s):  
Catchment Area ◽  
Shallow Landslide ◽  
Hazard Mapping ◽  
Medium Scale

Probabilistic Approach for Risk Evaluation of Oscillatory Stability in Power Systems

2014 ◽  
pp. 249-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Luis Rueda ◽  
Jaime C. Cepeda ◽  
István Erlich ◽  
Abdul W. Korai ◽  
Francisco M. Gonzalez-Longatt
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Probabilistic Approach

External Event Risk Assessment: Methodology and Application

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosa Lo Frano ◽  
Luciano Burgazzi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Structural Integrity ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Stress Tests ◽  
Fukushima Accident ◽  
Tsunami Inundation ◽  
Event Risk ◽  
External Events ◽  
Risk Assessment Methodology

The 2011 Fukushima accident revealed various gaps related to probabilistic approach, used for the plant risk assessment against external events. In consideration of that and analysing the evolution of the accident scenario, some issues need to be re-considered and/or improved for a reliable NPP risk evaluation in Fukushima conditions. This study is therefore aimed at the evaluation of the NPP safety performance when subjected to external events, such as the earthquake and/or tsunami (inundation phase), by applying the IDPSA (Integrated Deterministic Probabilistic Safety Analysis) approach, which combines the Probabilistic and Deterministic Safety Assessment ones. To the purpose “stress tests” suggestions, presently foreseen by the European and International Associations, have been taken into account. The main issues as emerging from the Fukushima accident, specifically the LOOP/SBO (Loss Of Offsite Power/Station Black Out) caused by a flooding or tsunami, were analysed. The results indicated that although the containment building is suffering local damaging, no loss of structural integrity occurs.

scholarly journals Community Based Risk Assessment and Adaptation to Climate Change in Dharam Wetland under Sunamganj District

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-166
Author(s):  
KM Bahauddin ◽  
MH Uddin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Community Based ◽  
River Bank ◽  
Element At Risk ◽  
Adaptation Practice ◽  
Wave Erosion ◽  
Adaptation Practices

This study presented community based framework to assess the risk and the adaptation practice as response to climate change and different disasters. The community’s experience suggested risks are shifting along with prolongation of hydro-meteorological events and its irregularity is threatening adaptation capacities as it is affecting the sensitivity and production of the ecosystem of the region. In this study, community identified flash flood, flood, wave erosion; river bank erosion and water pollution were as common hazards and risks of their life as well as community identified and assessed their seasonal calendar and livelihood activities, element at risk, problem matrix ranking/ priority, risk evaluation, causes of risks and their adaptation. In this viewpoint, some recommendations were suggested for community to adaptation, practices and conservation of wetland.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/jesnr.v5i2.14807 J. Environ. Sci. & Natural Resources, 5(2): 161-166 2012

scholarly journals Improving predictive power of physically based rainfall-induced shallow landslide models: a probabilistic approach

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1367-1426 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Raia ◽  
M. Alvioli ◽  
M. Rossi ◽  
R. L. Baum ◽  
J. W. Godt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Message Passing Interface ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Shallow Landslides ◽  
Parallel Execution ◽  
Rainfall Infiltration ◽  
Soil Conditions ◽  
Sufficient Information ◽  
Input Parameters ◽  
Temporal Occurrence

Abstract. Distributed models to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides are deterministic. These models extend spatially the static stability models adopted in geotechnical engineering and adopt an infinite-slope geometry to balance the resisting and the driving forces acting on the sliding mass. An infiltration model is used to determine how rainfall changes pore-water conditions, modulating the local stability/instability conditions. A problem with the existing models is the difficulty in obtaining accurate values for the several variables that describe the material properties of the slopes. The problem is particularly severe when the models are applied over large areas, for which sufficient information on the geotechnical and hydrological conditions of the slopes is not generally available. To help solve the problem, we propose a probabilistic Monte Carlo approach to the distributed modeling of shallow rainfall-induced landslides. For the purpose, we have modified the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis (TRIGRS) code. The new code (TRIGRS-P) adopts a stochastic approach to compute, on a cell-by-cell basis, transient pore-pressure changes and related changes in the factor of safety due to rainfall infiltration. Infiltration is modeled using analytical solutions of partial differential equations describing one-dimensional vertical flow in isotropic, homogeneous materials. Both saturated and unsaturated soil conditions can be considered. TRIGRS-P copes with the natural variability inherent to the mechanical and hydrological properties of the slope materials by allowing values of the TRIGRS model input parameters to be sampled randomly from a given probability distribution. The range of variation and the mean value of the parameters can be determined by the usual methods used for preparing the TRIGRS input parameters. The outputs of several model runs obtained varying the input parameters are analyzed statistically, and compared to the original (deterministic) model output. The comparison suggests an improvement of the predictive power of the model of about 10% and 16% in two small test areas, i.e. the Frontignano (Italy) and the Mukilteo (USA) areas, respectively. We discuss the computational requirements of TRIGRS-P to determine the potential use of the numerical model to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in very large areas, extending for several hundreds or thousands of square kilometers. Parallel execution of the code using a simple process distribution and the Message Passing Interface (MPI) on multi-processor machines was successful, opening the possibly of testing the use of TRIGRS-P for the operational forecasting of rainfall-induced shallow landslides over large regions.

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