scholarly journals Characteristic Features of Precipitation Extremes over India in the Warming Scenarios

2011 ◽  
Vol 2011 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. V. Revadekar ◽  
S. K. Patwardhan ◽  
K. Rupa Kumar
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Regional Climate Modeling ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Sulphate Aerosols ◽  
Characteristic Features ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Socioeconomic Consequences

The detection of possible changes in extreme climate events, in terms of the frequency, intensity as well as duration assumes profound importance on the local, regional, and national scales, due to the associated critical socioeconomic consequences. Therefore, an attempt is made in this paper to evaluate various aspects of future projections of precipitation extremes over India, as projected by a state-of-art regional climate modeling system, known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) towards the end of the 21st century (that is, 2071–2100) using standardized indices. Study reveals that PRECIS simulations under scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentration and sulphate aerosols indicate marked increase in precipitation towards the end of the 21st century and is expected to increase throughout the year. However the changes in daily precipitation and the precipitation extremes during summer monsoon (June through September) season are prominent than during the rest of year. PRECIS simulations under both A2 and B2 scenarios indicate increase in frequency of heavy precipitation events and also enhancement in their intensity towards the end of the 21st century. Both A2 and B2 scenarios show similar patterns of projected changes in the precipitation extremes towards the end of the 21st century. However, the magnitudes of changes in B2 scenario are on the lower side.

scholarly journals Changes in the temperature of the Guadalajara metropolitan zone, México under climate change scenarios / Cambios en la temperatura de la zona metropolitana de Guadalajara, México bajo escenarios de cambio climático

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 2652-2671
Author(s):  
Ramírez Sánchez Hermes Ulises ◽  
Fajardo Montiel Aida Lucia ◽  
García Guadalupe Mario Enrique
Keyword(s):  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Modeling ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Extreme Temperatures ◽  
Observational Analysis ◽  
Cold Events ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Metropolitan Zone

In the present study analyzed the average and extreme temperatures observed and simulated by regional models in the Guadalajara Metropolitan Zone (GMZ), Jalisco, Mexico. Data of daily mean, minimum and maximum temperatures of stations in the GMZ during the period 1971-2000 have been used to study the observed changes in the average and extreme temperatures. In addition, an assessment of future scenarios for the average and extreme temperatures associated with the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases was performed using simulations of a PRECIS regional climate modeling to create the climate for present (1971-2000), and future projections for 2030, 2050 and 2080. Observational analysis of stations suggests warming through increased intensity and frequency of hot events and also with the decrease in the frequency of cold events. More than 35 to 76% of the stations have a tendency to the decrease in the number of cold events and near 39 to 64% of the stations show a growing trend in the hot events. The percentage of stations to global warming through the rates of intensity of the highs maximums, lowest minimum temperatures is 37 to 70% and the 30 to 65% of the stations, respectively. Observational analysis for the GMZ as a whole also shows similar results. Anomalies to the average and extreme temperatures per month during the period of data show an increase (decrease) in the frequency of hot (cold) events for every month. In general, PRECIS simulations under both scenarios A1B and A2 indicate warm events increase and decrease of the cold extreme events towards the end of the 21st century. Both show similar patterns, but the scenario A2 shows slightly lower magnitudes of projected changes. Temperatures are likely to increase in the year, but it is expected that changes in summer to be more prominent.

Future surface mass balance of the Elbrus Glacial Complex under climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oleg Rybak ◽  
Taisya Dymova ◽  
Irina Korneva ◽  
Stanislav Kutuzov ◽  
Ivan Lavrentiev ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Modeling ◽  
Meteorological Station ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Southern Slope ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Glacial Complex

<p>The evolution of the Elbrus glacier complex, consisting of two dozen of glaciers, in the last two decades of the 20th century and at the beginning of the 21st century generally corresponded to the trend of a decrease in the glaciated area of ​​the whole Caucasus. Over the period 1960-2014, the area of ​​Elbrus glaciation decreased by approximately 15%, and over two decades 1997-2017 - by almost 11%. As of 2017, the area of ​​Elbrus glaciation was estimated to ca. 112 sq. km, its volume exceeded 5 cub. km. Elbrus glaciation contributes significantly to the formation of the hydrological regime in the region, and, therefore, may be considered as a major challenge ti the regional socio-economic development. The latter circumstance requires an accurate assessment of the glacial runoff, and, consequently, the calculation of the surface mass balance of the glacial complex. We use an energy balance model to calculate the current and future surface mass balance. The series of observations at the Terskol meteorological station, located fifteen kilometers from the southern spurs of Elbrus, and the Mestia meteorological station, located somewhat further, on the territory of Georgia on the southern slope of the Main Caucasian ridge, as well as data from automatic weather stations on Elbrus slopes and on Djankuat glacier a few tens of kilometers from Elbrus, were applied for model forcing to reproduce present surface mass balance. The modeling results were validated by comparison with the measured surfave mass balance components on Garabashi glacier, one of the glaciers on the southern slope of Elbrus. Climate projections until the end of the 21st century for the Elbrus region were composed on the basis of multi-model results of regional climate modeling within the CORDEX project for various scenarios.</p><p>We demonstrate that simultaneous surface air temperature and insolation growth accompanied by decrease in precipitation, predicted by multi-model regional climate modeling and downscaled to the Central Caucasus area, will cause essential lifting of the equilibrium line altitude and shrinking of accumulation area. As a result, we must expect an accelerated degradation of Elbrus glaciation in forthcoming decades.   </p><p>The reported study was funded by RFBR and RS, project number 21-55-100003</p>

scholarly journals The Ongoing Need for High-Resolution Regional Climate Models: Process Understanding and Stakeholder Information

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 (5) ◽  
pp. E664-E683 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. J. Gutowski ◽  
P. A. Ullrich ◽  
A. Hall ◽  
L. R. Leung ◽  
T. A. O’Brien ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Regional Climate Modeling ◽  
Urban Heat Islands ◽  
Global Models ◽  
Strong Winds

ABSTRACT Regional climate modeling addresses our need to understand and simulate climatic processes and phenomena unresolved in global models. This paper highlights examples of current approaches to and innovative uses of regional climate modeling that deepen understanding of the climate system. High-resolution models are generally more skillful in simulating extremes, such as heavy precipitation, strong winds, and severe storms. In addition, research has shown that fine-scale features such as mountains, coastlines, lakes, irrigation, land use, and urban heat islands can substantially influence a region’s climate and its response to changing forcings. Regional climate simulations explicitly simulating convection are now being performed, providing an opportunity to illuminate new physical behavior that previously was represented by parameterizations with large uncertainties. Regional and global models are both advancing toward higher resolution, as computational capacity increases. However, the resolution and ensemble size necessary to produce a sufficient statistical sample of these processes in global models has proven too costly for contemporary supercomputing systems. Regional climate models are thus indispensable tools that complement global models for understanding physical processes governing regional climate variability and change. The deeper understanding of regional climate processes also benefits stakeholders and policymakers who need physically robust, high-resolution climate information to guide societal responses to changing climate. Key scientific questions that will continue to require regional climate models, and opportunities are emerging for addressing those questions.

scholarly journals Urban Climates and Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 411-444 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valéry Masson ◽  
Aude Lemonsu ◽  
Julia Hidalgo ◽  
James Voogt
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Urban Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Modeling ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Urban Climatology ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Global Agenda

Cities are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather episodes, which are expected to increase with climate change. Cities also influence their own local climate, for example, through the relative warming known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect. This review discusses urban climate features (even in complex terrain) and processes. We then present state-of-the-art methodologies on the generalization of a common urban neighborhood classification for UHI studies, as well as recent developments in observation systems and crowdsourcing approaches. We discuss new modeling paradigms pertinent to climate impact studies, with a focus on building energetics and urban vegetation. In combination with regional climate modeling, new methods benefit the variety of climate scenarios and models to provide pertinent information at urban scale. Finally, this article presents how recent research in urban climatology contributes to the global agenda on cities and climate change.

The state of the art and fundamental aspects of regional climate modeling in South America

2018 ◽  
Vol 1436 (1) ◽  
pp. 98-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tércio Ambrizzi ◽  
Michelle Simões Reboita ◽  
Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha ◽  
Marta Llopart
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Modeling ◽  
The State

Generating long-term high-resolution land-use change datasets for regional climate modeling in CORDEX domains

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Hoffmann ◽  
Diana Rechid ◽  
Vanessa Reinhart ◽  
Christina Asmus ◽  
Edouard L. Davin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Modeling ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Modeling Studies

<p>Land-use and land cover (LULC) are continuously changing due to environmental changes and anthropogenic activities. Many observational and modeling studies show that LULC changes are important drivers altering land surface feedbacks and land-atmosphere exchange processes that have substantial impact on climate on the regional and local scale. Yet, most long-term regional climate modeling studies do not account for these changes. Therefore, within the WCRP CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study LUCAS (Land Use Change Across Scales) a new workflow was developed to generate high-resolution annual land cover change time series based on past reconstructions and future projections. First, the high-resolution global land cover dataset ESA-CCI LC (~300 m resolution) is aggregated and converted to a 0.1° resolution, fractional plant functional type (PFT) dataset. Second, the land use change information from the land-use harmonized dataset (LUH2), provided at 0.25° resolution as input for CMIP6 experiments, is translated into PFT changes employing a newly developed land use translator (LUT). The new LUT was first applied to the EURO-CORDEX domain. The resulting LULC maps for past and future - the LUCAS LUC dataset - can be applied as land use forcing to the next generation RCM simulations for downscaling CMIP6 by the EURO-CORDEX community and in the framework of FPS LUCAS. The dataset includes land cover and land management practices changes important for the regional and local scale such as urbanization and irrigation. The LUCAS LUC workflow is applied to further CORDEX domains, such as Australasia and North America. The resulting past and future land cover changes will be presented, and challenges regarding the application of the new workflow to different regions will be addressed. In addition, issues related to the implementation of the dataset into different RCMs will be discussed.</p>

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