scholarly journals A Hybrid Distance-Based Ideal-Seeking Consensus Ranking Model

2007 ◽  
Vol 2007 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madjid Tavana ◽  
Frank LoPinto ◽  
James W. Smither
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Simple Model ◽  
Rank Order ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Science Literature ◽  
Ranking Model ◽  
Ranking Problems ◽  
Hybrid Distance ◽  
Kendall Method

Ordinal consensus ranking problems have received much attention in the management science literature. A problem arises in situations where a group of k decision makers (DMs) is asked to rank order n alternatives. The question is how to combine the DM rankings into one consensus ranking. Several different approaches have been suggested to aggregate DM responses into a compromise or consensus ranking; however, the similarity of consensus rankings generated by the different algorithms is largely unknown. In this paper, we propose a new hybrid distance-based ideal-seeking consensus ranking model (DCM). The proposed hybrid model combines parts of the two commonly used consensus ranking techniques of Beck and Lin (1983) and Cook and Kress (1985) into an intuitive and computationally simple model. We illustrate our method and then run a Monte Carlo simulation across a range of k and n to compare the similarity of the consensus rankings generated by our method with the best-known method of Borda and Kendall (Kendall 1962) and the two methods proposed by Beck and Lin (1983) and Cook and Kress (1985). DCM and Beck and Lin's method yielded the most similar consensus rankings, whereas the Cook-Kress method and the Borda-Kendall method yielded the least similar consensus rankings.

Monte Carlo simulation of folding transitions of simple model proteins using a chain growth algorithm

1992 ◽  
Vol 97 (11) ◽  
pp. 8644-8652 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eamonn M. O’Toole ◽  
Athanassios Z. Panagiotopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Simple Model ◽  
Chain Growth ◽  
A Chain

On Using Monte Carlo Simulations for Project Risk Management

2016 ◽  
pp. 150-173
Author(s):  
Cristiana Tudor ◽  
Maria Tudor
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation Technique ◽  
Basic Probability ◽  
The Cost

This chapter covers the essentials of using the Monte Carlo Simulation technique (MSC) for project schedule and cost risk analysis. It offers a description of the steps involved in performing a Monte Carlo simulation and provides the basic probability and statistical concepts that MSC is based on. Further, a simple practical spreadsheet example goes through the steps presented before to show how MCS can be used in practice to assess the cost and duration risk of a project and ultimately to enable decision makers to improve the quality of their judgments.

Spiegel Online

2017 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Karl Schmedders ◽  
Armin Rott
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Web Site ◽  
Business Plan ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Bottom Line ◽  
Art Objects ◽  
Input Parameters ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact

Spiegel Online (www.spiegel.de) is the leading news Web site in Germany. The site was first designed to accompany Der Spiegel, one of Europe's largest and Germany's most influential weekly magazine, which has a weekly circulation of around one million. The site's content is produced by a team of more than fifty journalists writing in several categories: politics, business, networld, panorama, arts and entertainment, science, university, school, sports, travel, weather, and automobiles. The original content is complemented by articles purchased from news agencies and selected articles from the print edition. Spiegel-Verlag is a major contributor to the Hamburg Media School, which offers professional master's degree programs in Media Management (MBA), film, and journalism. In their second year, MBA students typically engage in consulting projects with major media companies. In a recent assignment, Spiegel Online posed two questions to the MBA team: are there any chances for an economically successful entry into the market for interactive classifieds? And if so, what should the business model look like in detail? A student team analyzed markets for classified ads and found one market segment that appeared to be particularly promising: the market for art objects. During the development of a business plan for a new venture in this market it became apparent that there is much uncertainty about the key input parameters to the business plan. As a result, it is very difficult to assess the viability of the business idea. How can the team properly account for the uncertain input parameters? What is the impact of this uncertainty on the bottom line? Will a Web site for art objects earn or lose money? How can the team communicate this uncertainty to a group of high-level decision makers who want a simple “go or no-go” recommendation?The objective is to make students aware of the applicability of Monte Carlo simulation to the analysis of complex business plans. Students should learn how to explicitly account for uncertain inputs in a business plan, how to assess the impact of uncertainty on the bottom line via Monte Carlo simulation, and how to communicate the results of their analysis to high-level decision makers.

A MONTE CARLO SIMULATION OF MAGNETIC ORDERING IN ISING CUBIC FERROSPINELS

2004 ◽  
Vol 03 (02) ◽  
pp. 179-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. STANICA ◽  
F. CIMPOESU ◽  
GIANINA DOBRESCU ◽  
V. CHIHAIA ◽  
LUMINITA PATRON ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Magnetic Properties ◽  
Simple Model ◽  
Magnetic Ordering ◽  
Exchange Interactions ◽  
Monte Carlo Studies ◽  
Quantum Spins ◽  
Type Lattice ◽  
Insight Into

This work signifies the next step in our way in the magnetic properties simulation of spin clusters and extended networks containing quantum spins, by original FORTRAN codes based on Heisenberg–Dirac–VanVleck (HDVV) or Ising approaches, using Full Diagonalization Heisenberg Matrix (FDHM) or Monte Carlo–Metropolis (MCM) procedure, respectively. We present the results of magnetic Monte Carlo studies on a magnetite type lattice, Ising model ferrimagnet that provide insight into the exchange interactions involved in Cubic Ferrospinels. We have demonstrated that a comparatively simple model can reproduce ferrimagnetic behavior of ferrospinels, particularly for magnetite.

Mask-Edge Distributions Produced by 80 KeV As+ Ion Implantation Into Si

1996 ◽  
Vol 439 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Danailov ◽  
D. Karpuzov ◽  
A. Almazouzi ◽  
P.De Almeida ◽  
M. Victoria
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Simple Model ◽  
Ion Implantation ◽  
Computer Code ◽  
Target Atom ◽  
Mask Edge ◽  
Computer Procedure

AbstractThe 2D-dopant and defect distributions resulting from 80 keV ion implantation of As+ ions into Si through a high-edge mask are presented. The distributions are obtained by means of an efficient computer procedure using the results of Monte Carlo simulation. Two versions of the computer code TRIM are used. The 2D-target atom redistribution is obtained as a result of cascade collisions. The simulation reveals the effect of near-mask-edge target atom depletion. This effect is related to the recoil phenomena and can be explained on the basis of simple model.

Monte Carlo Simulation–Based Assessment of Risks Associated with Public–Private Partnership Investments in Toll Highway Infrastructure

2017 ◽  
Vol 2670 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhe Han ◽  
Juan Diego Porras-Alvarado ◽  
Jingran Sun ◽  
Zhanmin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Quantitative Information ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Highway Projects ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation Technique ◽  
Funding Mechanism ◽  
Private And Public

The demands for delivering highway services keep growing worldwide. However, funding from government and public agencies alone cannot cover the capital needed to operate and maintain existing highway systems, much less to construct new ones. Public–private partnerships (PPPs) are an innovative funding mechanism for highway agencies to use private capital and expertise in transportation infrastructure projects so as to increase funding options to bridge the budget gap. Even though parties involved in PPPs take different roles and responsibilities, there are still risks taken or shared by the public and private sectors. In particular, assessing risks associated with the potential returns of investments is of great importance to the private and public sectors. This paper presents a methodological framework for assessing the investment risks of PPP toll highway projects, which may help decision makers. The financial viability associated with the components of a project is considered and analyzed, and the Monte Carlo simulation technique is applied to evaluate the overall project risks. Finally, a numerical case study is conducted to demonstrate the application of the proposed method. The risk analysis provides statistical distribution of investment returns for the project under analysis, which will supply decision makers with direct information to estimate the project’s overall financial risks and develop corresponding risk control measures. The risk simulation results are interpreted so that quantitative information can be provided to agencies to establish investment decision criteria.

scholarly journals Dynamic Cooperative Model for Ranking Construction Risks using Monte Carlo Simulation

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 211-216
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Critical Path ◽  
Quantitative Model ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Path Model ◽  
Simulation Engine ◽  
Construction Risks ◽  
Risk Planning

Construction projects suffer from diverse uncertainties that hinder the key objectives’ achievement. These uncertainties represent risks that may appear through the project life cycle. This paper introduces a quantitative model to estimate and rank risks dynamically during the risk planning phase. Such ranking would help decision-makers appropriately respond to and/or control construction risks. The model provides proper risk contingency reserves for both project time and cost that meet decision-makers' selected confidence levels using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). In order to quantify the project uncertainty, severities of residual risks are determined and allocated at the project's activities-level using a planning/scheduling spreadsheet model and a MCS tool suitable for spreadsheets. The model is able to calculate the contribution of each risk from the determined contingency at both the project level for both the time and cost at the decision-maker confidence level.The model represents a direct implementation for a Risk Planning Contingency Model (RPCM); which involves four modules as follows: (1) Risk Register (RR), (2) Risk Allocator (RA), (3) Risk Simulator (RS), and (4) Contingency Calculator (CC). These modules are hosted in a critical path model scheduling spreadsheet to facilitate risk management. In addition, a simulation engine add-in is used for analyzing the probability distribution for the project time and cost outcomes. In order to verify the proposed model, the process and analysis have been applied to a case study project. The results show that the RPCM is capable to rank and estimate the residual risks in an easy, fast, and effective way.

scholarly journals Early stages of aggregation in fluid mixtures of dimers and spheres: a theoretical and simulation study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gianmarco Munao ◽  
Santi Prestipino ◽  
Dino Costa
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Simple Model ◽  
Simulation Study ◽  
Interaction Site ◽  
Molecular Fluids ◽  
Fluid Mixtures ◽  
Site Model ◽  
Early Stages ◽  
Reference Interaction Site

We use Monte Carlo simulation and the Reference Interaction Site Model (RISM) theory of molecular fluids to investigate a simple model of colloidal mixture consisting of dimers, made up of...

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