Searching for Mates Using 'Fast and Frugal' Heuristics: a Demographic Perspective

2000 ◽  
Vol 03 (01n04) ◽  
pp. 53-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco C. Billari
Keyword(s):  
Mental Models ◽  
Frequency Distribution ◽  
Formal Proof ◽  
Union Formation ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Formation Curve ◽  
Fast And Frugal Heuristics ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Typical Shape ◽  
Mating Time

The paper deals with the search for a mate in human populations, where agents behave according to the bounded rational, 'fast and frugal' heuristics proposed by Todd (1997), which he calls Take the Next Best (TNB). The perspective is that of a demographer, and the main focus is on the macro regularities, in particular, the shape of the frequency distribution of mating time and the proportion of ever-mated, arising from the micro hypotheses. We show – both by simulation and by formal proof – that if agents behave homogeneously according to the same TNB rule the shape of the distribution is monotonically decreasing. Switching then to the hypothesis that individuals act heterogeneously, with different TNB rules, the typical shape of the union formation curve emerges. Finally, we argue that students of demography might gain important hints for their theories by simulation-based approaches and that a population-oriented focus might also be advantageous for studying the mental models for agents.

Frequency distribution of Wuchereria bancrofti microfilariae in human populations and its relationships with age and sex

Parasitology ◽  
1990 ◽  
Vol 101 (3) ◽  
pp. 429-434 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. K. Das ◽  
A. Manoharan ◽  
A. Srividya ◽  
B. T. Grenfell ◽  
D. A. P. Bundy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Distribution ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Indirect Evidence ◽  
Wuchereria Bancrofti ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Sampling Errors ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Age And Sex

SUMMARYThis paper examines the effects of host age and sex on the frequency distribution of Wuchereria bancrofti infections in the human host. Microfilarial counts from a large data base on the epidemiology of bancroftian filariasis in Pondicherry, South India are analysed. Frequency distributions of microfilarial counts divided by age are successfully described by zero-truncated negative binomial distributions, fitted by maximum likelihood. Parameter estimates from the fits indicate a significant trend of decreasing overdispersion with age in the distributions above age 10; this pattern provides indirect evidence for the operation of density-dependent constraints on microfilarial intensity. The analysis also provides estimates of the proportion of mf-positive individuals who are identified as negative due to sampling errors (around 5% of the total negatives). This allows the construction of corrected mf age–prevalence curves, which indicate that the observed prevalence may underestimate the true figures by between 25% and 100%. The age distribution of mf-negative individuals in the population is discussed in terms of current hypotheses about the interaction between disease and infection.

scholarly journals A parametric model for estimating nuptiality patterns in modern populations

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anastasia Kostaki ◽  
Paraskevi Peristera
Keyword(s):  
Mixture Models ◽  
Parametric Model ◽  
Parametric Models ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Marriage Rates ◽  
First Marriage ◽  
Flexible Parametric Model ◽  
Typical Shape

Nuptiality is a phenomenon closely related to fertility. The age-specific marriage distribution has a typical shape common in all human populations. In order to estimate this pattern, alternative parametric models have been proposed. However recent evidence suggests that mixture models are required to estimate nuptiality patterns. In this paper, a flexible parametric model is proposed in three versions, appropriate to describe the age pattern of first marriage rates. For evaluation purposes the models as well as the alternative existing models are fitted to a variety of empirical datasets.

Linking the submicroscopic and symbolic level in physical chemistry: how voluntary simulation-based learning activities foster first-year university students’ conceptual understanding

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 1132-1147
Author(s):  
Stefanie Schwedler ◽  
Marvin Kaldewey
Keyword(s):  
Physical Chemistry ◽  
University Students ◽  
Mental Models ◽  
Conceptual Understanding ◽  
Learning Activities ◽  
Scientific Concept ◽  
First Year ◽  
Tertiary Teaching ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
At Home

Research in the past decades repeatedly revealed university students’ struggles to properly understand physical chemistry concepts. In contrast to school, tertiary teaching relies heavily on the symbolic level, mainly applying abstract representations such as equations and diagrams. To follow the lessons and generate conceptual understanding, students need to connect those representations with macroscopic and submicroscopic aspects of the scientific concept depicted. For German first-year chemistry students, this increase in abstraction in a major subject of study contributes to excessive demand and demotivation (especially during out-of-class learning) and increases the risk of early dropouts. We designed a simulation-based learning environment (BIRC: Bridging Imagination and Representation in Chemistry) to suit the needs of first-year students and support them when learning physical chemistry at home. Our approach, featuring molecular dynamics simulations, requires students to assess their own mental models on the submicroscopic level and connect them to equations and diagrams on the symbolic level. Prior studies did already highlight the potential of individual BIRC learning units to foster conceptual understanding on specific topics. In this paper, we investigate if and how students of a broader sample use these learning activities as voluntary supplement beside regular coursework. During the term, we used think-aloud protocols, interviews and eight online questionnaires to analyse students’ mental and emotional interaction while working on BIRC, assessing whether students perceived BIRC as a suitable, enjoyable and supportive resource to enhance learning. Via two paper & pencil achievement tests we examined students’ retention concerning submicroscopic mental models and their ability to connect these mental models with symbolic representations 5–10 weeks later. Our findings indicate a cognitively engaging, comparably enjoyable learning process, which strengthens conceptual understanding and – despite the necessary time and effort – induces a broad number of students to voluntarily work on several units at home.

Frequency distribution of lymphatic filariasis microfilariae in human populations: population processes and statistical estimation

Parasitology ◽  
1990 ◽  
Vol 101 (3) ◽  
pp. 417-427 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. T. Grenfell ◽  
P. K. Das ◽  
P. K. Rajagopalan ◽  
D. A. P. Bundy
Keyword(s):  
Lymphatic Filariasis ◽  
Frequency Distribution ◽  
Statistical Estimation ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Wuchereria Bancrofti ◽  
Host Population ◽  
Blood Sampling ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Poisson Mixtures ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYThis paper uses simple mathematical models and statistical estimation techniques to analyse the frequency distribution of microfilariae (mf) in blood samples from human populations which are endemic for lymphatic filariasis. The theoretical analysis examines the relationship between microfilarial burdens and the prevalence of adult (macrofilarial) worms in the human host population. The main finding is that a large proportion of observed mf-negatives may be ‘true’ zeros, arising from the absence of macrofilarial infections or unmated adult worms, rather than being attributable to the blood sampling process. The corresponding mf distribution should then follow a Poisson mixture, arising from the sampling of mf positives, with an additional proportion of ‘true’ mf-zeros. This hypothesis is supported by analysis of observed Wuchereria bancrofti mf distributions from Southern India, Japan and Fiji, in which zero-truncated Poisson mixtures fit mf-positive counts more effectively than distributions including the observed zeros. The fits of two Poisson mixtures, the negative binomial and the Sichel distribution, are compared. The Sichel provides a slightly better empirical description of the mf density distribution; reasons for this improvement, and a discussion of the relative merits of the two distributions, are presented. The impact on observed mf distributions of increasing blood sampling volume and extraction efficiency are illustrated via a simple model, and directions for future work are identified.

Psychological plausibility of the theory of probabilistic mental models and the fast and frugal heuristics.

2008 ◽  
Vol 115 (1) ◽  
pp. 199-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael R. Dougherty ◽  
Ana M. Franco-Watkins ◽  
Rick Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Mental Models ◽  
Fast And Frugal Heuristics

scholarly journals Os zygomaticum bipartitum: frequency distribution in major human populations

1998 ◽  
Vol 192 (4) ◽  
pp. 539-555 ◽  
Author(s):  
TSUNEHIKO HANIHARA ◽  
HAJIME ISHIDA ◽  
YUKIO DODO
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Distribution ◽  
Human Populations
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