A DYNAMIC APPROACH TO THE MODELING OF CORRELATION CREDIT DERIVATIVES USING MARKOV CHAINS

2009 ◽  
Vol 12 (01) ◽  
pp. 45-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
GIUSEPPE DI GRAZIANO ◽  
L. C. G. ROGERS
Keyword(s):  
Markov Process ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Credit Derivatives ◽  
Default Correlation ◽  
Dynamic Approach ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Industry Practice ◽  
Path Dependent ◽  
The Times ◽  
High Degree

The modeling of credit events is in effect the modeling of the times to default of various names. The distribution of individual times to default can be calibrated from CDS quotes, but for more complicated instruments, such as CDOs, the joint law is needed. Industry practice is to model this correlation using a copula/base correlation approach, which suffers significant deficiencies. We present a new approach to default correlation modeling, where defaults of different names are driven by a common continuous-time Markov process. Individual default probabilities and default correlations can be calculated in closed form. We provide semi-analytic formulas for the pricing of CDO tranches via Laplace-transform techniques which are both fast and easy to implement. The model calibrates to quoted tranche prices with a high degree of precision and allows one to price non-standard tranches in a consistent and arbitrage-free manner. The number of parameters of the model is flexible and can be adjusted to adapt to the set of market data one is calibrating to. More importantly, the model is dynamically consistent and can be used to price options on tranches and other exotic path-dependent products.

MANAGEMENT OF THE SUCCESS OF STUDENT’S LEARNING BASED ON THE MARKOV MODEL

2018 ◽  
pp. 4-11
Author(s):  
M. V. Noskov ◽  
M. V. Somova ◽  
I. M. Fedotova
Keyword(s):  
Information System ◽  
Markov Process ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Information Technologies ◽  
Educational Process ◽  
Automated Information System ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The University ◽  
Independent Work ◽  
Near Future

The article proposes a model for forecasting the success of student’s learning. The model is a Markov process with continuous time, such as the process of “death and reproduction”. As the parameters of the process, the intensities of the processes of obtaining and assimilating information are offered, and the intensity of the process of assimilating information takes into account the attitude of the student to the subject being studied. As a result of applying the model, it is possible for each student to determine the probability of a given formation of ownership of the material being studied in the near future. Thus, in the presence of an automated information system of the university, the implementation of the model is an element of the decision support system by all participants in the educational process. The examples given in the article are the results of an experiment conducted at the Institute of Space and Information Technologies of Siberian Federal University under conditions of blended learning, that is, under conditions when classroom work is accompanied by independent work with electronic resources.

scholarly journals Mapping TASEP back in time

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonid Petrov ◽  
Axel Saenz
Keyword(s):  
Markov Process ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Exclusion Process ◽  
Discrete Space ◽  
Baxter Equation ◽  
Simple Exclusion Process ◽  
Open Questions ◽  
Asymmetric Simple Exclusion ◽  
Simple Exclusion ◽  
Hammersley Process

AbstractWe obtain a new relation between the distributions $$\upmu _t$$ μ t at different times $$t\ge 0$$ t ≥ 0 of the continuous-time totally asymmetric simple exclusion process (TASEP) started from the step initial configuration. Namely, we present a continuous-time Markov process with local interactions and particle-dependent rates which maps the TASEP distributions $$\upmu _t$$ μ t backwards in time. Under the backwards process, particles jump to the left, and the dynamics can be viewed as a version of the discrete-space Hammersley process. Combined with the forward TASEP evolution, this leads to a stationary Markov dynamics preserving $$\upmu _t$$ μ t which in turn brings new identities for expectations with respect to $$\upmu _t$$ μ t . The construction of the backwards dynamics is based on Markov maps interchanging parameters of Schur processes, and is motivated by bijectivizations of the Yang–Baxter equation. We also present a number of corollaries, extensions, and open questions arising from our constructions.

scholarly journals Detecting multiple generalized change-points by isolating single ones

Metrika ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Anastasiou ◽  
Piotr Fryzlewicz
Keyword(s):  
Model Selection ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Change Points ◽  
Isolation Technique ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Piecewise Constant ◽  
Practical Performance ◽  
R Packages ◽  
The Times

AbstractWe introduce a new approach, called Isolate-Detect (ID), for the consistent estimation of the number and location of multiple generalized change-points in noisy data sequences. Examples of signal changes that ID can deal with are changes in the mean of a piecewise-constant signal and changes, continuous or not, in the linear trend. The number of change-points can increase with the sample size. Our method is based on an isolation technique, which prevents the consideration of intervals that contain more than one change-point. This isolation enhances ID’s accuracy as it allows for detection in the presence of frequent changes of possibly small magnitudes. In ID, model selection is carried out via thresholding, or an information criterion, or SDLL, or a hybrid involving the former two. The hybrid model selection leads to a general method with very good practical performance and minimal parameter choice. In the scenarios tested, ID is at least as accurate as the state-of-the-art methods; most of the times it outperforms them. ID is implemented in the R packages IDetect and breakfast, available from CRAN.

PRICING COUNTERPARTY RISK INCLUDING COLLATERALIZATION, NETTING RULES, RE-HYPOTHECATION AND WRONG-WAY RISK

2013 ◽  
Vol 16 (02) ◽  
pp. 1350007 ◽  
Author(s):  
DAMIANO BRIGO ◽  
AGOSTINO CAPPONI ◽  
ANDREA PALLAVICINI ◽  
VASILEIOS PAPATHEODOROU
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Credit Derivatives ◽  
Credit Default Swaps ◽  
Credit Spread ◽  
Counterparty Risk ◽  
Default Correlation ◽  
Dynamical Models ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
The Impact

This article is concerned with the arbitrage-free valuation of bilateral counterparty risk through stochastic dynamical models when collateral is included, with possible rehypothecation. The payout of claims is modified to account for collateral margining in agreement with International Swap and Derivatives Association (ISDA) documentation. The analysis is specialized to interest-rate and credit derivatives. In particular, credit default swaps are considered to show that a perfect collateralization cannot be achieved under default correlation. Interest rate and credit spread volatilities are fully accounted for, as is the impact of re-hypothecation, collateral margining frequency, and dependencies.

ON DEFAULT CORRELATION AND PRICING OF COLLATERALIZED DEBT OBLIGATION BY COPULA FUNCTIONS

2006 ◽  
Vol 05 (03) ◽  
pp. 483-493 ◽  
Author(s):  
PING LI ◽  
HOUSHENG CHEN ◽  
XIAOTIE DENG ◽  
SHUNMING ZHANG
Keyword(s):  
Credit Derivatives ◽  
Copula Function ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Default Correlation ◽  
Specific Kind ◽  
Copula Functions ◽  
Recovery Rates ◽  
Collateralized Debt Obligation ◽  
Collateralized Debt ◽  
Debt Obligation

Default correlation is the key point for the pricing of multi-name credit derivatives. In this paper, we apply copulas to characterize the dependence structure of defaults, determine the joint default distribution, and give the price for a specific kind of multi-name credit derivative — collateralized debt obligation (CDO). We also analyze two important factors influencing the pricing of multi-name credit derivatives, recovery rates and copula function. Finally, we apply Clayton copula, in a numerical example, to simulate default times taking specific underlying recovery rates and average recovery rates, then price the tranches of a given CDO and then analyze the results.

Dynamic performance evaluation of multi – state systems under non – homogeneous continuous time Markov process degradation using lifetimes in terms of order statistics

2017 ◽  
Vol 231 (3) ◽  
pp. 255-264 ◽  
Author(s):  
Funda Iscioglu
Keyword(s):  
Markov Process ◽  
Order Statistics ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Dynamic Performance ◽  
Real Life ◽  
State Change ◽  
Transition Rates ◽  
Lifetime Analysis ◽  
Complete Failure ◽  
Effect Of Age

In multi-state modelling a system and its components have a range of performance levels from perfect functioning to complete failure. Such a modelling is more flexible to understand the behaviour of mechanical systems. To evaluate a system’s dynamic performance, lifetime analysis of a multi-state system has been considered in many research articles. The order statistics related analysis for the lifetime properties of multi-state k-out-of-n systems have recently been studied in the literature in case of homogeneous continuous time Markov process assumption. In this paper, we develop the reliability measures for multi-state k-out-of-n systems by assuming a non-homogeneous continuous time Markov process for the components which provides time dependent transition rates between states of the components. Therefore, we capture the effect of age on the state change of the components in the analysis which is typical of many systems and more practical to use in real life applications.

A note on passage times and infinitely divisible distributions

1967 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 402-405 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. D. Miller
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Markov Process ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Independent Random Variables ◽  
Infinitely Divisible Distributions ◽  
Infinitely Divisible ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Mutually Independent ◽  
Passage Times

Let X(t) be the position at time t of a particle undergoing a simple symmetrical random walk in continuous time, i.e. the particle starts at the origin at time t = 0 and at times T1, T1 + T2, … it undergoes jumps ξ1, ξ2, …, where the time intervals T1, T2, … between successive jumps are mutually independent random variables each following the exponential density e–t while the jumps, which are independent of the τi, are mutually independent random variables with the distribution . The process X(t) is clearly a Markov process whose state space is the set of all integers.

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