Reactive and anticipatory display to deflect predatory attack to an autotomous lizard tail

1998 ◽  
Vol 76 (8) ◽  
pp. 1507-1510 ◽  
Author(s):  
William E Cooper, Jr.
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Predatory Attack ◽  
Alternative Hypotheses ◽  
Eumeces Laticeps

Antipredation display is usually directed to predators that have been detected, but might be beneficial when predators are likely to be dangerously close, but undetected. Anticipatory display could be selectively favored if it increased the probability of escape sufficiently to outweigh the increased probability of being detected and captured by a previously unaware predator. This is especially likely if prey have adaptations permitting a high probability of escape when attacked, such as deflection of attack to dispensible parts. Deflective displays typically occur under threat of imminent attack by a predator detected within striking distance, but might also occur in circumstances reliably entailing a high risk of ambush by undetected predators, especially immediately after an animal stops following a bout of locomotion. Tail undulation was observed in the broad-headed skink (Eumeces laticeps), a lizard with a conspicuous, autotomous tail that enhances escape ability. Eumeces laticeps undulated its tail before fleeing from a looming predator and immediately after stopping in the absence of a detected predator. Undulation after stopping confirms predictions of anticipatory deflective display and contradicts alternative hypotheses. Undulation just before flight from a predator very close at hand is a form of reactive deflection.

scholarly journals Modeling the temporal dynamics of cervicovaginal microbiota identifies targets that may promote reproductive health

Microbiome ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Munoz ◽  
Matthew R. Hayward ◽  
Seth M. Bloom ◽  
Muntsa Rocafort ◽  
Sinaye Ngcapu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Bacterial Communities ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Reproductive Outcomes ◽  
Bacterial Composition ◽  
Sub Saharan

Abstract Background Cervicovaginal bacterial communities composed of diverse anaerobes with low Lactobacillus abundance are associated with poor reproductive outcomes such as preterm birth, infertility, cervicitis, and risk of sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Women in sub-Saharan Africa have a higher prevalence of these high-risk bacterial communities when compared to Western populations. However, the transition of cervicovaginal communities between high- and low-risk community states over time is not well described in African populations. Results We profiled the bacterial composition of 316 cervicovaginal swabs collected at 3-month intervals from 88 healthy young Black South African women with a median follow-up of 9 months per participant and developed a Markov-based model of transition dynamics that accurately predicted bacterial composition within a broader cross-sectional cohort. We found that Lactobacillus iners-dominant, but not Lactobacillus crispatus-dominant, communities have a high probability of transitioning to high-risk states. Simulating clinical interventions by manipulating the underlying transition probabilities, our model predicts that the population prevalence of low-risk microbial communities could most effectively be increased by manipulating the movement between L. iners- and L. crispatus-dominant communities. Conclusions The Markov model we present here indicates that L. iners-dominant communities have a high probability of transitioning to higher-risk states. We additionally identify transitions to target to increase the prevalence of L. crispatus-dominant communities. These findings may help guide future intervention strategies targeted at reducing bacteria-associated adverse reproductive outcomes among women living in sub-Saharan Africa.

scholarly journals Antibiotic-associated diarrhea in children: how to identify, what to do and how to treat?

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 78-89
Author(s):  
I. N. Zakharova ◽  
I. V. Berezhnaya ◽  
E. B. Mumladze
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Antibiotic Therapy ◽  
Intestinal Microbiota ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Pseudomembranous Colitis ◽  
Inflammatory Diseases ◽  
Pediatric Practice ◽  
Antibiotic Associated Diarrhea ◽  
New Generation ◽  
Very High

Rational antibiotic therapy is one of the most important components in the treatment of children with various infectious and inflammatory diseases. However, wide and sometimes unjustified use of AB in pediatric practice often leads to the development of a variety of complications. Children receiveing AB, especially during the first 5 years of life, are at a very high risk of developing antibiotic-associated diarrhea (AAD) which manifests itself in three or more episodes of unformed stools for two or more consecutive days or for 8 weeks after withdrawal. The most relevant pathogen of AAD is C. difficile which, according to various data, causes from 10 to 25% of AAD cases and 90 to 100% of all cases of pseudomembranous colitis (PMC). Given the high probability of developing dangerous complications such as PMC, special attention should be paid to the prevention of the infection associated with C. difficile by reducing the frequency of uncontrolled and unjustified use of AB. A new generation of eco-antibiotics can be recommended which allow to maintain diversity of the intestinal microbiota and are less likely to cause complications.

The Use of a Clinical Prediction Model and D-Dimer (DD) Testing in the Diagnosis of Deep Vein Thrombosis (DVT): A Systematic Review.

Blood ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 104 (11) ◽  
pp. 1052-1052
Author(s):  
Carolyn J. Owen ◽  
Steve Doucette ◽  
Philip S. Wells
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Prediction Rule ◽  
Clinical Prediction Rule ◽  
Clinical Prediction ◽  
Clinical Prediction Model ◽  
Prediction Rules ◽  
Clinical Probability ◽  
Probability Estimates ◽  
Low Probability

Abstract Background: The diagnosis of DVT can be made by determining pretest probability of disease and using this information in combination with DD testing and ultrasound imaging. A number of studies have evaluated the use of clinical probability but this literature has not been summarized. Purpose: To systematically review trials that evaluated DVT prevalence using clinical prediction rules either with or without DD for the diagnosis of DVT. Data Sources: English and French language studies were identified from a MEDLINE search from 1990 to March 2004 and were supplemented by a review of all relevant bibliographies. Study Selection: Prospective management studies of symptomatic outpatients with suspected DVT in which patients were followed for a minimum of 3 months were selected. Clinical prediction rules had to be employed prior to DD and diagnostic tests. Studies were excluded if patients with a history of prior DVT were enrolled or if insufficient information was presented to calculate the prevalence of DVT for each of the 3 clinical probability estimates (low, moderate and high risk). Data Extraction: Two reviewers assessed each study for inclusion/exclusion criteria and collected data on prevalence and on sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios of DD in each of the 3 clinical probability estimates (low, moderate and high risk). Data Synthesis: 14 management studies involving a clinical prediction model in the diagnosis of DVT in over 8000 patients were included, of which 11 utilized DD in the diagnostic algorithm. All studies employed the same clinical prediction rule. The inverse variance weighted average prevalence of DVT in the low, moderate and high probability subgroups were 4.9% (95% CI= 4.2% to 5.7%), 17.4% (95% CI= 16.2% to 18.8%), and 53.6% (95% CI= 51.1% to 56.2%), respectively. The overall weighted prevalence was 18.3% (95% CI= 17.4% to 19.2%). The sensitivity of DD for the diagnosis of DVT in the low, moderate and high probability subgroups were 90.4% (95% CI= 84.7% to 94.2%), 92.0 % (95% CI= 89.1% to 94.2%), 93.6% (95% CI= 91.2% to 94.3%); and the specificities were 69.9% (95% CI= 68.0% to 71.8%), 52.4% (95% CI= 49.8% to 55.0%), and 43.2% (95% CI= 38.8% to 47.6%), respectively. The Mantel-Haenszel pooled estimates for diagnostic odds ratios (DOR) were 17.4 (95%CI=10.4–29.1), 10.2 (95% CI=7.1–14.6), and 10.1 (95% CI=6.9–14.9) in low, moderate and high groups respectively. Conclusion: Accurate estimates of the prevalence of DVT can be achieved using the same clinical prediction rule. Using this rule, it is unlikely that low probability patients have a DVT probability of more than 5%. Specificity of the DD seems to have clinically relevant differences depending on pretest probability but the DORs (which incorporate sensitivity and specificity) are similar. The data suggest that DVT can be excluded if patients are low probability even when DDs of lower sensitivity are employed and that DD testing has lower utility in high probability patients since false positives are common.

Relapse-Related Molecular Signature in Lung Adenocarcinomas Identifies Patients With Dismal Prognosis

2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (17) ◽  
pp. 2793-2799 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuta Tomida ◽  
Toshiyuki Takeuchi ◽  
Yukako Shimada ◽  
Chinatsu Arima ◽  
Keitaro Matsuo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Expression Profiles ◽  
Information Leakage ◽  
Molecular Signature ◽  
Disease Stage ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Dismal Prognosis ◽  
Selection Of

Purpose In order to aid the development of patient-tailored therapeutics, we attempted to identify a relapse-related signature that allows selection of a group of adenocarcinoma patients with a high probability of relapse. Patients and Methods Whole-genome expression profiles were analyzed in 117 lung adenocarcinoma samples using microarrays consisting of 41,000 probes. A weighted voting classifier for identifying patients with a relapse-related signature was constructed with an approach that allowed no information leakage during each training step, using 10-fold cross-validation and 100 random partitioning procedures. Results We identified a relapse-related molecular signature represented by 82 probes (RRS-82) through genome-wide expression profiling analysis of a training set of 60 patients. The robustness of RRS-82 in the selection of patients with a high probability of relapse was then validated with a completely blinded test set of 27 adenocarcinoma patients, showing a clear association of high risk RRS-82 with very poor patient prognosis regardless of disease stage. The discriminatory power of RRS-82 was further validated using an additional independent cohort of 30 stage I patients who underwent surgery at a distinct period of time as well as with the Duke data set on a different platform. Furthermore, completely separate training and validation procedures using another data set recently reported by the Director's Challenge Consortium also successfully confirmed the predictive power of the genes comprising RRS-82. Conclusion RRS-82 may be useful for identifying adenocarcinoma patients at very high risk for relapse, even those with cancer in the early stage.

scholarly journals Thrombophilia in obstetric practice

2021 ◽  
Vol 99 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-20
Author(s):  
A. P. Melnikov ◽  
M. G. Kashchuk ◽  
K. N. Ahvlediani ◽  
I. N. Bokarev
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Pregnant Women ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Thromboembolic Complications ◽  
Spontaneous Thrombosis ◽  
Obstetric Practice ◽  
Very High

The rate of thromboembolic complications associated with thrombophilia is very high; therefore the detection of thrombophilia mutations in the high-risk group of patients is important for the prevention of morbidity, mortality and obstetric losses. The problem of thrombophilia is dealt with by doctors of various specialties: laboratory stuff, geneticists, vascular surgeons, hematologists, neurologists, cardiologists and obstetricians-gynecologists. At the same time, patients with spontaneous thrombosis are followed-up for years without proper examination for thrombophilia. Considering that pregnancy is a condition associated with a high probability of re-thrombosis, it is advisable to determine the cause and tactics of management and treatment of pregnant women as early as possible during the period of pregnancy.

Reduced willingness to expend effort for rewards is associated with risk for conversion and negative symptom severity in youth at clinical high-risk for psychosis

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Gregory P. Strauss ◽  
Lisa A. Bartolomeo ◽  
Lauren Luther
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Negative Symptom ◽  
Symptom Severity ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Negative Symptoms ◽  
Positive Symptoms ◽  
Clinical High Risk ◽  
Risk Calculator ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
High Effort

Abstract Background Schizophrenia (SZ) is typically preceded by a prodromal (i.e. pre-illness) period characterized by attenuated positive symptoms and declining functional outcome. Negative symptoms are prominent among individuals at clinical high-risk (CHR) for psychosis (i.e. those with prodromal syndromes) and predictive of conversion to illness. Mechanisms underlying negative symptoms are unclear in the CHR population. Methods The current study evaluated whether CHR participants demonstrated deficits in the willingness to expend effort for rewards and whether these impairments are associated with negative symptoms and greater risk for conversion. Participants included 44 CHR participants and 32 healthy controls (CN) who completed the Effort Expenditure for Reward Task (EEfRT). Results Compared to CN, CHR participants displayed reduced likelihood of exerting high effort for high probability and magnitude rewards. Among CHR participants, reduced effort expenditure was associated with greater negative symptom severity and greater probability of conversion to a psychotic disorder on a cross-sectional risk calculator. Conclusions Findings suggest that effort-cost computation is a marker of illness liability and a transphasic mechanism underlying negative symptoms in the SZ spectrum.

scholarly journals Polycentricity of the City's Metropolitan System as a Factor Increasing Security in Times of Danger - On the Example of Cracow

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Ziobro ◽  
Rafał Blazy
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Large City ◽  
Service Needs ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Local Service ◽  
Abstract Service ◽  
The Face ◽  
S Peak

Abstract: Service polycentricism, in the face of the pandemic, took on a new significance because of sanitary requirements. Population concentrations in large service centres face a high risk of infection both at their destination and during the trip. Higher-tier services were largely closed during the threat’s peak. In this paper, the focus of the study has been placed on the urban scale of a large city’s polycentricism as seen through the prism of service concentrations, which, to a degree, are commuter destinations, but primarily act as attractors that are not associated with work—they satisfy higher-tier service needs. To formulate the investigative apparatus used to study the functio-spatial structure of Cracow. The current threat, as well as the high probability of similar situations happening in the future, will probably lead to changes in behaviour patterns of consumers and service providers in reference to siting. Local service centres that are accessible to pedestrians, due to safety-related considerations, can gain significant popularity.

scholarly journals Childhood Socioeconomic Status, Comorbidity of Chronic Kidney Disease Risk Factors, and Kidney Function Among Adults in the Midlife in the United States (MIDUS) Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agus Surachman ◽  
Jonathan Daw ◽  
Bethany Bray ◽  
Lacy Alexander ◽  
Christopher Coe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Kidney Function ◽  
High Probability ◽  
The United States ◽  
Risk Class ◽  
Clustering Of Risk Factors

Abstract Background: There is a lack of empirical effort that systematically investigates the clustering of comorbidity among known risk factors (obesity, hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, and elevated inflammation) of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and how different types of comorbidity may link differently to kidney function among healthy adult samples. This study modeled the clustering of comorbidity among risk factors, examined the association between the clustering of risk factors and kidney function, and tested whether the clustering of risk factors was associated with childhood SES.Methods: The data were from 2,118 participants (ages 25-84) in the Midlife in the United States (MIDUS) Study. Risk factors included obesity, elevated blood pressure (BP), high total cholesterol levels, poor glucose control, and increased inflammatory activity. Glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was estimated from serum creatinine, calculated with the CKD-EPI formula. The clustering of comorbidity among risk factors and its association with kidney function and childhood SES were examined using latent class analysis (LCA).Results: A five-class model was optimal: (1) Low Risk (class size = 36.40%; low probability of all risk factors), (2) Obese (16.42%; high probability of large BMI and abdominally obese), (3) Obese and Elevated BP (13.37%; high probability of being obese and having elevated BP), (4) Non-Obese but Elevated BP (14.95%; high probability of having elevated BP, hypercholesterolemia, and elevated inflammation), and (5) High Risk (18.86%; high probability for all risk factors). Obesity was associated with kidney hyperfiltration, while comorbidity between obesity and hypertension was linked to compromised kidney filtration. As expected, the High Risk class showed the highest probability of having eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 (P = .12; 95%CI = .09 - .17). Finally, low childhood SES, controlling for education, adult SES, age, gender, and race, was associated with a higher probability of being in the High Risk rather than the Low Risk class (b = -0.20, SE = 0.07, OR [95%CI] = 0.82 [0.71-0.95]).Conclusion: These results highlight the importance of considering the impact of childhood SES on risk factors known to be associated with chronic kidney disease.

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