Cycle lengths and phase portrait characteristics as probes for predator–prey interactions: comparing simulations and observed data

2009 ◽  
Vol 87 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina Holmengen ◽  
Knut Lehre Seip
Keyword(s):  
American Mink ◽  
Interaction Strength ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Ondatra Zibethicus ◽  
Clockwise Rotation ◽  
Predator Prey ◽  
Strength Of Interaction ◽  
Cycle Lengths ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Best Fit

In this paper we explore the cyclic interactions of prey–predator systems by examining the relationship between cycle lengths of both species and the strength of their interaction. As a probe of interaction strength, we use the degree of counter-clockwise rotation in phase plots with the prey on the x axis and the predator on the y axis. We compare the results from a 25-year time series from the Hudson’s Bay Company data on American mink ( Neovison vison (Schreber, 1777)) and muskrat ( Ondatra zibethicus (L., 1766)) with results from three simulation models. We found that the strength of interaction (rotation range: –0.4 to 1.1 rad/year) was strongest when the two cycle lengths were similar and that it increased with the amplitude of the cycles (cycle range: 4–10 years). The time difference between prey and predator cycles that corresponded to the highest interaction strength was 2–3 years. Similar results were obtained with simulation models; the most complex Hanski model showing the overall best fit with observations. However, none of the models were able to reproduce long ranges of stable cycles by only changing one of their parameters at a time (ranges 2–4 years), whereas the observed range of stable cycles was 4–10 years.

Population dynamics of muskrats and mink: investigating contemporary patterns in a classic predator-prey system

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam A Ahlers ◽  
Timothy P Lyons ◽  
Edward J Heske
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Density Dependence ◽  
American Mink ◽  
Population Cycles ◽  
The United States ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Predator Prey ◽  
Cycle Lengths ◽  
Southern Half

A well-studied predator-prey relationship between American mink (Neovison vison (Schreber, 1777)) and muskrats (Ondatra zibethicus (Linnaeus, 1766)) in Canada has advanced our understanding of population cycles including the influence of density dependence and lagged responses of predators to prey abundances. However, it is unclear if patterns observed in Canada extend across the southern half of their native range. We used data from the United States to create a 41-year time series of mink and muskrat harvest reports (1970-2011) for 36 states. After controlling for pelt-price effects, we used 2nd order autoregressive and Lomb-Scargle spectral density models to identify the presence and periodicity of muskrat population cycles. Additionally, we tested for evidence of delayed or direct density dependence and for predator-driven population dynamics. Our results suggest muskrat populations may cycle in parts of the United States; however, results varied by modeling approaches with Lomb-Scargle analyses providing more precise parameter estimates. Observed cycle lengths were longer than expected with weak amplitudes and we urge caution when interpreting these results. We did not detect evidence of a predator-prey relationship driven by a lagged numerical response of American mink. American mink and muskrat fur returns were largely correlated across the region suggesting extraneous factors likely synchronize both populations.

Development and evaluation of trans-Amadi groundwater parameters: The integration of finite element techniques

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chem Int
Keyword(s):  
Finite Element ◽  
Polynomial Regression ◽  
Nitrate Concentration ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Total Iron ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Port Harcourt ◽  
Polynomial Expression ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Best Fit

Mathematical model was developed and evaluated to monitor and predict the groundwater characteristics of Trans-amadi region in Port Harcourt City. In this research three major components were considered such as chloride, total iron and nitrate concentration as well as the polynomial expression on the behavious on the concentration of each component was determined in terms of the equation of the best fit as well as the square root of the curve. The relationship between nitrate and distance traveled by Nitrate concentration by the model is given as Pc = 0.003x2 - 0.451x + 14.91with coefficient of determination, R² = 0.947, Chloride given as Pc = 0.000x2 - 0.071x + 2.343, R² = 0.951while that of Total Iron is given as Pc = 2E-05x2 - 0.003x + 0.110, R² = 0.930. All these show a strong relationship as established by Polynomial Regression Model. The finite element techniques are found useful in monitoring, predicting and simulating groundwater characteristics of Trans-amadi as well as the prediction on the variation on the parameters of groundwater with variation in time.

Adolescent Language: Models, Assessment, and Links to Reading

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda Goodwin ◽  
Yaacov Petscher ◽  
Jamie Tock
Keyword(s):  
Reading Comprehension ◽  
Bifactor Model ◽  
Language Models ◽  
Multiple Group ◽  
Global Factor ◽  
Eighth Grade Students ◽  
Key Aspects ◽  
Future Work ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Best Fit

Various models have highlighted the complexity of language. Building on foundational ideas regarding three key aspects of language, our study contributes to the literature by 1) exploring broader conceptions of morphology, vocabulary, and syntax, 2) operationalizing this theoretical model into a gamified, standardized, computer-adaptive assessment of language for fifth to eighth grade students entitled Monster, PI, and 3) uncovering further evidence regarding the relationship between language and standardized reading comprehension via this assessment. Multiple-group item response theory (IRT) across grades show that morphology was best fit by a bifactor model of task specific factors along with a global factor related to each skill. Vocabulary was best fit by a bifactor model that identifies performance overall and on specific words. Syntax, though, was best fit by a unidimensional model. Next, Monster, PI produced reliable scores suggesting language can be assessed efficiently and precisely for students via this model. Lastly, performance on Monster, PI explained more than 50% of variance in standardized reading, suggesting operationalizing language via Monster, PI can provide meaningful understandings of the relationship between language and reading comprehension. Specifically, considering just a subset of a construct, like identification of units of meaning, explained significantly less variance in reading comprehension. This highlights the importance of considering these broader constructs. Implications indicate that future work should consider a model of language where component areas are considered broadly and contributions to reading comprehension are explored via general performance on components as well as skill level performance.

Soil and Stream Water Chemistry During Spring Snowmelt

1992 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. H. Hendershot ◽  
L. Mendes ◽  
H. Lalande ◽  
F. Courchesne ◽  
S. Savoie
Keyword(s):  
Stream Water ◽  
Base Cations ◽  
Stream Chemistry ◽  
Stream Water Chemistry ◽  
The Matrix ◽  
Adsorption Desorption ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Best Fit ◽  
Spring Snowmelt ◽  
Over Time

In order to determine how water flowpath controls stream chemistry, we studied both soil and stream water during spring snowmelt, 1985. Soil solution concentrations of base cations were relatively constant over time indicating that cation exchange was controlling cation concentrations. Similarly SO4 adsorption-desorption or precipitation-dissolution reactions with the matrix were controlling its concentrations. On the other hand, NO3 appeared to be controlled by uptake by plants or microorganisms or by denitrification since their concentrations in the soil fell abruptly as snowmelt proceeded. Dissolved Al and pH varied vertically in the soil profile and their pattern in the stream indicated clearly the importance of water flowpath on stream chemistry. Although Al increased as pH decreased, the relationship does not appear to be controlled by gibbsite. The best fit of calculated dissolved inorganic Al was obtained using AlOHSO4 with a solubility less than that of pure crystalline jurbanite.

Dämpfungsschlitze in Kreissägeblättern*/Parametric FE analysis to identify the mode of action of damping slots in circular saw blades

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (01-02) ◽  
pp. 41-46
Author(s):  
C. Birenbaum ◽  
U. Heisel ◽  
S. Weiland
Keyword(s):  
Finite Element Analysis ◽  
Thermal Expansion ◽  
Analytical Approach ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Fe Analysis ◽  
Element Analysis ◽  
Annular Plates ◽  
Circular Saw ◽  
Characteristic Modes ◽  
The Relationship

In Kreissägeblättern werden zur Verminderung von Schwingungen und zum Ausgleich thermischer Dehnungen sogenannte Dehnungs- und Dämpfungsschlitze eingebracht. Die Wirkungsweise der Schlitze auf die dynamischen Eigenschaften besteht einerseits in der Dämpfungswirkung sowie andererseits in der Modifikation der Schwingungseigenformen. Um Wirkmechanismen und Optimierungsmöglichkeiten zu identifizieren, werden in den hier vorgestellten Untersuchungen mithilfe der Finiten-Elemente-Methode (FEM) Analysen von Kreisscheiben mit einfachen Schlitzkonfigurationen durchgeführt. Hierdurch sollen Zusammenhänge einzelner Schlitzparameter mit den statischen und dynamischen Eigenschaften von Kreissägeblättern aufgezeigt werden. Zur Validierung des entwickelten Simulationsmodells dienen analytische Berechnungen.   To reduce vibrations and adjust for thermal expansion, so-called damping slots and expansion slots are applied to circular saw blades. The slots affect the dynamic behavior of the saw blades by damping the vibration and altering the characteristic modes and frequencies. An FE(Finite Element) analysis of annular plates with simple arrangements of damping and expansion slots is performed to identify the mechanisms and improvement opportunities. This allows determining the relationship between slot parameters and the static and dynamic qualities of circular saw blades. The developed simulation models are validated using an analytical approach.

Relationship between plasma osmolality and plasma vasopressin in human subjects

1980 ◽  
Vol 238 (4) ◽  
pp. E313-E317 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Hammer ◽  
J. Ladefoged ◽  
K. Olgaard
Keyword(s):  
Linear Models ◽  
Human Subjects ◽  
Plasma Osmolality ◽  
Metabolic Clearance ◽  
Parabolic Model ◽  
Pronounced Increase ◽  
Plasma Vasopressin ◽  
Log Linear ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Best Fit

The relationship between plasma osmolality (pOsm) and plasma vasopressin (pAVP) was studied in 13 human subjects during dehydration. The fit of linear, log-linear, parabolic, and exponential models was tested. For all of the data, the nonlinear models had the best fit. However, when individual differences in either gain or threshold were allowed for, the linear models were better than log-linear models. Finally, analyses were made with individual data points. Linear models had the best fit in half of the subjects, whereas for the others the parabolic model gave the best fit. For those subjects investigated in the low range of the osmoregulatory curve, a linear relationship was found, whereas, for those having the most pronounced increase in pOsm, the most significant improvement was found with the parabolic model. This finding indicates that the relationship is not stable during dehydration in the whole range and that hypovolemia probably can influence the secretion rate and/or metabolic clearance rate and thereby the relationship.

scholarly journals Size-mediated, density-dependent cannibalism in the signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus (Dana, 1852) (Decapoda, Astacidea), an invasive crayfish in Britain

Crustaceana ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 90 (4) ◽  
pp. 417-435 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. Houghton ◽  
C. Wood ◽  
X. Lambin
Keyword(s):  
Relative Size ◽  
Pacifastacus Leniusculus ◽  
Gut Contents ◽  
Size Distributions ◽  
Signal Crayfish ◽  
Density Dependent ◽  
Invasive Crayfish ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Best Fit

The role of cannibalism in crayfish populations is not well understood, despite being a potentially key density-dependent process underpinning population dynamics. We studied the incidence of cannibalism in an introduced signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus population in a Scottish lowland river in September 2014. Animals were sampled using six different sampling techniques simultaneously, revealing variable densities and size distributions across the site. Cannibalism prevalence was estimated by analysing the gut contents of crayfish >20 mm CL for the presence of crayfish fragments, which was found to be 20% of dissected individuals. When seeking evidence of relationships between the sizes of cannibals and ‘prey’, the density of conspecifics <56% the size of a dissected individual yielded the best fit. The relationship between cannibalism probability and crayfish size and density was equally well described by three different metrics of crayfish density. Cannibalism increased with crayfish size and density but did not vary according to sex. These results suggest that large P. leniusculus frequently cannibalize smaller (prey) conspecifics, and that the probability of cannibalism is dependent upon the relative size of cannibal-to-prey and the density of the smaller crayfish. We suggest that removing large individuals, as targeted by many traditional removal techniques, may lead to reduced cannibalism and therefore a compensatory increase in juvenile survival.

scholarly journals STATISTICAL MODEL FOR THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MAIZE KERNEL ORIENTATION AND SEED LEAF AZIMUTH

2015 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 359-370
Author(s):  
ADRIAN KOLLER ◽  
GUILHERME TORRES ◽  
MICHAEL BUSER ◽  
RANDY TAYLOR ◽  
BILL RAUN ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Models ◽  
Circular Statistics ◽  
Von Mises Distribution ◽  
Canopy Closure ◽  
Canopy Architecture ◽  
Maize Kernel ◽  
Angular Data ◽  
Significant Yield ◽  
Von Mises ◽  
The Relationship

SUMMARYHand-planted plots of across-row-oriented corn seeds (Zeamays L.) produce highly structured leaf canopies and have shown significant yield advantage over randomly planted plots in prior studies. For further investigation of the phenomenon by simulation, the objective of this study was to develop a probabilistic model for the correlation between seed orientation and initial plant orientation. In greenhouse trials, the azimuthal orientation of kernels of four different hybrids was recorded at planting. At collar setting of the seed leaf, the orientation of the seed leaf was determined and the angular data subjected to the analytical methods of circular statistics. The results indicate that the correlation between seed azimuth and seed leaf azimuth can be described by a von Mises distribution. The probabilistic seed to seed leaf azimuth model described herein may be implemented in simulation models to investigate the effect of canopy architecture, canopy closure and light interception efficiency of corn under conditions of seed oriented planting.

scholarly journals Data assimilation in Agent-based models using creation and annihilation operators

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Tang
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Null Model ◽  
The State ◽  
Actual State ◽  
Agent Based Models ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Predator Prey ◽  
Predator Prey Model ◽  
The One ◽  
The Relationship

Agent-based models are a powerful tool for studying the behaviour of complex systems that can be described in terms of multiple, interacting ``agents''. However, because of their inherently discrete and often highly non-linear nature, it is very difficult to reason about the relationship between the state of the model, on the one hand, and our observations of the real world on the other. In this paper we consider agents that have a discrete set of states that, at any instant, act with a probability that may depend on the environment or the state of other agents. Given this, we show how the mathematical apparatus of quantum field theory can be used to reason probabilistically about the state and dynamics the model, and describe an algorithm to update our belief in the state of the model in the light of new, real-world observations. Using a simple predator-prey model on a 2-dimensional spatial grid as an example, we demonstrate the assimilation of incomplete, noisy observations and show that this leads to an increase in the mutual information between the actual state of the observed system and the posterior distribution given the observations, when compared to a null model.

scholarly journals Unveiling the self-association and desolvation in crystal nucleation

IUCrJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 468-479
Author(s):  
Danning Li ◽  
Yongli Wang ◽  
Shuyi Zong ◽  
Na Wang ◽  
Xin Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Density Functional ◽  
Interaction Strength ◽  
Solution Chemistry ◽  
The Self ◽  
Crystal Nucleation ◽  
Nucleation Kinetics ◽  
Molecular Conformations ◽  
Self Association ◽  
Induction Times ◽  
The Relationship

As the first step in the crystallization process, nucleation has been studied by many researchers. In this work, phenacetin (PHEN) was selected as a model compound to investigate the relationship between the solvent and nucleation kinetics. Induction times at different supersaturation in six solvents were measured. FTIR and NMR spectroscopy were employed to explore the solvent–solute interactions and the self-association properties in solution. Density functional theory (DFT) was adopted to evaluate the strength of solute–solvent interactions and the molecular conformations in different solvents. Based on these spectroscopy data, molecular simulation and nucleation kinetic results, a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between molecular structure, crystal structure, solution chemistry and nucleation dynamics is discussed. Both the solute–solvent interaction strength and the supramolecular structure formed by the self-association of solute molecules affect the nucleation rate. The findings reported here shed new light on the molecular mechanism of nucleation in solution.

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