scholarly journals Cyclic dynamics of snowshoe hares on a small island in the Yukon

2002 ◽  
Vol 80 (8) ◽  
pp. 1442-1450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles J Krebs ◽  
Todd N Zimmerling ◽  
Claire Jardine ◽  
Kim A Trostel ◽  
Alice J Kenney ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Decline ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Ground Squirrels ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Small Island ◽  
Juvenile Survival ◽  
Lower Amplitude ◽  
Arctic Ground Squirrels ◽  
Reproductive Rates ◽  
Survival Differences

Snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) populations were monitored from 1977 to 2001 on Jacquot Island (5 km2) in Kluane Lake, southwestern Yukon, and on nearby mainland sites. Jacquot Island hares averaged twice the density of mainland control populations and, although they show 10-year cycles, fluctuate with much lower amplitude than mainland populations. Three separate intensive studies over 6 years attempted to determine what caused these differences. We tested two hypotheses to explain the dynamics. Reproductive rates of hares were similar on Jacquot Island and the mainland. Adult survival rates were higher on the island in most years, with the exception of years of population decline. Juvenile survival rates from 0 to 30 days of life were much higher on the island than on the mainland except for decline summers. The adult- and juvenile-survival differences between the island and the mainland were explained most consistently by predation. Improved survival on the island is correlated with a reduction in the numbers and types of predators found on Jacquot Island compared with the mainland. In particular, red squirrels were rare on Jacquot Island, arctic ground squirrels were absent, and the larger predators, like lynx and great-horned owls, were sporadic in occurrence on this small island.

Demography of a yellow-footed rock-wallaby Petrogale xanthopus colony in the threatened New South Wales sub-population.

2006 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 215 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Sharp ◽  
M. Norton ◽  
A. Marks
Keyword(s):  
New South ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Juvenile Survival ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Reproductive Rates ◽  
Substantial Decline

The remnant New South Wales (NSW) yellow-footed rock-wallaby (Petrogale xanthopus) population underwent a substantial decline between 1985 and 1992 and remained at dangerously low levels until 1995. To determine the processes underlying this decline, a population study was conducted at one colony, between winter 1995 and winter 1998. The colony was observed to remain relatively constant in size, consisting of between 12 or 13 individuals throughout the study. Reproductive rates were found to be relatively high. Both reproduction and pouch young survival were comparable with those reported for other P. xanthopus colonies, while adult survival rates were higher than those noted in other studies. Because population size remained constant during the study and adult survivorship was consistently high, this suggested that juvenile recruitment into the colony was low. Such low levels of recruitment may have had a substantive role in the slow decline of the entire NSW P. xanthopus population. The results of this study suggest that any management actions undertaken in the NSW P. xanthopus population should focus on increasing juvenile survival rates. Further research is required to determine whether juvenile survival is constrained by predation or competition with other herbivores.

scholarly journals Experts correctly describe demography associated with historical decline of the endangered Indiana bat, but not recent period of stationarity

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wayne Thogmartin ◽  
Carol Sanders-Reed ◽  
Jennifer Szymanski ◽  
Lori Pruitt ◽  
Michael Runge
Keyword(s):  
Population Decline ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Clear Understanding ◽  
Myotis Sodalis ◽  
Indiana Bat ◽  
White Nose Syndrome ◽  
Demographic Behavior ◽  
Pup Survival ◽  
Survival And Reproduction ◽  
Reproductive Rates

Demographic characteristics of bats are often insufficiently described for modeling populations. In data poor situations, experts are often relied upon for characterizing ecological systems. In concert with the development of a matrix model describing Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) demography, we elicited estimates for parameterizing this model from 12 experts. We conducted this elicitation in two stages, requesting expert values for 12 demographic rates. These rates were adult and juvenile seasonal (winter, summer, fall) survival rates, pup survival in fall, and propensity and success at breeding. Experts were most in agreement about adult fall survival (3% Coefficient of Variation) and least in agreement about propensity of juveniles to breed (37% CV). The experts showed greater concordance for adult ( mean CV, adult = 6.2%) than for juvenile parameters ( mean CV, juvenile = 16.4%), and slightly more agreement for survival (mean CV, survival = 9.8%) compared to reproductive rates ( mean CV, reproduction = 15.1%). However, survival and reproduction were negatively and positively biased, respectively, relative to a stationary dynamic. Despite the species exhibiting near stationary dynamics for two decades prior to the onset of a potential extinction-causing agent, white-nose syndrome, expert estimates indicated a population decline of -11% per year (95% CI = -2%, -20%); quasi-extinction was predicted within a century ( mean = 61 years to QE, range = 32, 97) by 10 of the 12 experts. Were we to use these expert estimates in our modeling efforts, we would have errantly trained our models to a rapidly declining demography asymptomatic of recent demographic behavior. While experts are sometimes the only source of information, a clear understanding of the temporal and spatial context of the information being elicited is necessary to guard against wayward predictions.

The fall and rise of bison populations in Wood Buffalo National Park: 1971 to 2003

2005 ◽  
Vol 83 (9) ◽  
pp. 1195-1205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Bradley ◽  
John Wilmshurst
Keyword(s):  
National Park ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Bison Bison ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Risk Of Predation ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Wood Buffalo National Park

Two hypotheses have been proposed to explain the decline of bison (Bison bison (L., 1758)) abundance in Wood Buffalo National Park (WBNP). The "disease–predation" hypothesis proposes that tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis (Karlson and Lessel 1970)) and brucellosis (Brucella abortus (Schmidt 1901)) reduce bison survival and reproduction, resulting in a low-density, predator-regulated equilibrium. The "habitat dispersion hypothesis" proposes that bison in one area of WBNP, the Peace–Athabasca Delta (Delta), have an increased risk of predation because they are concentrated in large meadows with high temporal and spatial predictability. We incorporate bison census data, calf and yearling segregation counts, reproductive rates, adult survival rates, and adult disease incidence in a stochastic population model to show that the historical decline of bison in WBNP would have occurred regardless of disease prevalence. Our model shows that survival of juveniles, the age class that is least susceptible to disease effects, was likely an important determinant of historical changes in population size. We also demonstrate that the population decline was most pronounced in the Delta and that juvenile survival was lower in the Delta, despite evidence that disease incidence was lower in the Delta than in the rest of WBNP. Lastly, the current population trend in WBNP is one of rapid increase, even in the presence of disease.

Juvenile survival and recruitment in a population of Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica

1987 ◽  
Vol 65 (12) ◽  
pp. 2993-2997 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Ward Testa
Keyword(s):  
Census Data ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Breeding Population ◽  
Weddell Seal ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Juvenile Survival ◽  
Apparent Survival ◽  
Mcmurdo Sound ◽  
Juvenile Dispersal ◽  
Weddell Seals

Survival and recruitment of Weddell seal pups were studied in eastern McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. Pups were marked and their apparent survival estimated by mark–recapture methods. The resulting estimates were used together with published estimates of adult survival, yearly sighting probabilities, and direct counts of pup production to simulate the dynamics of the population and evaluate the assumption that it is closed to immigration. Estimates derived from census data in 1982 and 1983 were over five times larger than those simulated. This discrepancy was due to the extremely low juvenile survival rates calculated from marked seals. Since few animals born in Erebus Bay return to breed, the large adult breeding population must be the result of substantial immigration, indicating an important role for juvenile dispersal in the population dynamics of Weddell seals.

scholarly journals Experts correctly describe demography associated with historical decline of the endangered Indiana bat, but not recent period of stationarity

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wayne Thogmartin ◽  
Carol Sanders-Reed ◽  
Jennifer Szymanski ◽  
Lori Pruitt ◽  
Michael Runge
Keyword(s):  
Population Decline ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Clear Understanding ◽  
Myotis Sodalis ◽  
Indiana Bat ◽  
White Nose Syndrome ◽  
Demographic Behavior ◽  
Pup Survival ◽  
Survival And Reproduction ◽  
Reproductive Rates

Demographic characteristics of bats are often insufficiently described for modeling populations. In data poor situations, experts are often relied upon for characterizing ecological systems. In concert with the development of a matrix model describing Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) demography, we elicited estimates for parameterizing this model from 12 experts. We conducted this elicitation in two stages, requesting expert values for 12 demographic rates. These rates were adult and juvenile seasonal (winter, summer, fall) survival rates, pup survival in fall, and propensity and success at breeding. Experts were most in agreement about adult fall survival (3% Coefficient of Variation) and least in agreement about propensity of juveniles to breed (37% CV). The experts showed greater concordance for adult ( mean CV, adult = 6.2%) than for juvenile parameters ( mean CV, juvenile = 16.4%), and slightly more agreement for survival (mean CV, survival = 9.8%) compared to reproductive rates ( mean CV, reproduction = 15.1%). However, survival and reproduction were negatively and positively biased, respectively, relative to a stationary dynamic. Despite the species exhibiting near stationary dynamics for two decades prior to the onset of a potential extinction-causing agent, white-nose syndrome, expert estimates indicated a population decline of -11% per year (95% CI = -2%, -20%); quasi-extinction was predicted within a century ( mean = 61 years to QE, range = 32, 97) by 10 of the 12 experts. Were we to use these expert estimates in our modeling efforts, we would have errantly trained our models to a rapidly declining demography asymptomatic of recent demographic behavior. While experts are sometimes the only source of information, a clear understanding of the temporal and spatial context of the information being elicited is necessary to guard against wayward predictions.

scholarly journals Population dynamics of the endangered mountain ecotype of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in British Columbia, Canada

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heiko Wittmer ◽  
BN McLellan ◽  
DR Seip ◽  
JA Young ◽  
TA Kinley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
British Columbia ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Rangifer Tarandus ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Rangifer Tarandus Caribou ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Woodland Caribou ◽  
Annual Survival

We used census results and radiotelemetry locations of >380 collared individuals sampled over the entire distribution of the endangered mountain ecotype of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou (Gmelin, 1788)) in British Columbia, Canada, to delineate population structure and document the size and trend of the identified populations. We also describe the spatial pattern of decline and the causes and timing of adult mortality and provide estimates of vital rates necessary to develop a population viability analysis. Our results indicate that the abundance of mountain caribou in British Columbia is declining. We found adult female annual survival rates below annual survival rates commonly reported for large ungulates. The major proximate cause of population decline appears to be predation on adult caribou. Spatial patterns of population dynamics revealed a continuous range contraction and an increasing fragmentation of mountain caribou into smaller, isolated subpopulations. The population fragmentation process predominantly occurs at the outer boundaries of the current distribution. Our results indicate that recovery strategies for mountain caribou should be directed at factors contributing to the fragmentation and isolation of mountain caribou populations as well as management strategies aimed at increasing adult survival. © 2005 NRC Canada.

Estimation of juvenile survival, adult survival, and age-specific pupping probabilities for the female grey seal (Halichoerus gryprus) on Sable Island from capture-recapture data

2000 ◽  
Vol 57 (1) ◽  
pp. 247-253 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl J Schwarz ◽  
Wayne T Stobo
Keyword(s):  
Survival Rate ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Juvenile Survival ◽  
Grey Seal ◽  
Capture Recapture ◽  
Adult Survival Rate

We use a longitudinal capture-recapture study from resightings of grey seals (Halichoerus gryprus) branded as young on Sable Island to estimate (i) the juvenile survival rate from the time of branding to age 4, (ii) the yearly adult survival rate from age 4 to age 9, and (iii) the age-specific pupping probabilities, i.e., the probability that a seal will first give birth at each age. The estimated juvenile survival rate from branding (just after weaning) to age 4 ranged from 70 to 80%; however, the lower values are known to be biased low because the study was terminated early. The estimated yearly adult survival rates for ages 4-9 ranged from 0.88 to 0.92·year-1. The estimated probabilities of first giving birth to a young seal (pupping) at ages 4-9 are 0.28, 0.41, 0.18, 0.06, 0.05, and 0.02, respectively, and the estimated average age of first pupping is 5.2 years.

scholarly journals Population dynamics of the endangered mountain ecotype of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in British Columbia, Canada

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heiko Wittmer ◽  
BN McLellan ◽  
DR Seip ◽  
JA Young ◽  
TA Kinley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
British Columbia ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Rangifer Tarandus ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Rangifer Tarandus Caribou ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Woodland Caribou ◽  
Annual Survival

We used census results and radiotelemetry locations of >380 collared individuals sampled over the entire distribution of the endangered mountain ecotype of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou (Gmelin, 1788)) in British Columbia, Canada, to delineate population structure and document the size and trend of the identified populations. We also describe the spatial pattern of decline and the causes and timing of adult mortality and provide estimates of vital rates necessary to develop a population viability analysis. Our results indicate that the abundance of mountain caribou in British Columbia is declining. We found adult female annual survival rates below annual survival rates commonly reported for large ungulates. The major proximate cause of population decline appears to be predation on adult caribou. Spatial patterns of population dynamics revealed a continuous range contraction and an increasing fragmentation of mountain caribou into smaller, isolated subpopulations. The population fragmentation process predominantly occurs at the outer boundaries of the current distribution. Our results indicate that recovery strategies for mountain caribou should be directed at factors contributing to the fragmentation and isolation of mountain caribou populations as well as management strategies aimed at increasing adult survival. © 2005 NRC Canada.

Apparent demographic changes in black-tailed deer associated with wolf control on northern Vancouver Island

1994 ◽  
Vol 72 (5) ◽  
pp. 878-884 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian W. Hatter ◽  
Doug W. Janz
Keyword(s):  
Population Change ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Vancouver Island ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Recruitment Rate ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Juvenile Survival ◽  
Demographic Changes ◽  
Odocoileus Hemionus Columbianus

A simple difference equation model was used to provide a perspective on demographic changes in a Columbian black-tailed deer (Odocoileus hemionus columbianus) population prior to and during wolf (Canis lupus) control on northern Vancouver Island. The model reconstructed spring (pre-fawning) deer numbers and adult survival rates from an annual abundance index, the proportion of the population consisting of juveniles 10–11 months of age, and hunter harvest. The actual (λ) and potential (λp, in the absence of hunting) rates of deer population change, adult nonhunting survival (Sn), adult hunting mortality (Mh) and recruitment (R) rates were estimated for three growth periods: (1) predecline (1970–1976), wolf numbers low but increasing, λ = 1.02, λp = 1.13, Sn = 0.90, Mh = 0.09, R = 0.22; (2) decline (1976–1983), wolves abundant, λ = 0.81, λp = 0.85, Sn = 0.76, Mh = 0.05, R = 0.09; and (3) recovery (1983–1990), wolves reduced, λ = 1.17, λp = 1.24, Sn = 0.94, Mh = 0.03, R = 0.23. The recruitment (Rs) required to balance adult mortality (λ = 1.00) was ~16%. Sensitivity analyses using plausible extremes in demographic rates suggested that changes in juvenile survival had the greatest impact on recruitment. Rate of population change appeared to be most sensitive to juvenile survival and adult nonhunting survival.

scholarly journals Population dynamics of the endangered mountain ecotype of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in British Columbia, Canada

2005 ◽  
Vol 83 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heiko U Wittmer ◽  
Bruce N McLellan ◽  
Dale R Seip ◽  
James A Young ◽  
Trevor A Kinley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
British Columbia ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Rangifer Tarandus ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Rangifer Tarandus Caribou ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Woodland Caribou ◽  
Annual Survival

We used census results and radiotelemetry locations of >380 collared individuals sampled over the entire distribution of the endangered mountain ecotype of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou (Gmelin, 1788)) in British Columbia, Canada, to delineate population structure and document the size and trend of the identified populations. We also describe the spatial pattern of decline and the causes and timing of adult mortality and provide estimates of vital rates necessary to develop a population viability analysis. Our results indicate that the abundance of mountain caribou in British Columbia is declining. We found adult female annual survival rates below annual survival rates commonly reported for large ungulates. The major proximate cause of population decline appears to be predation on adult caribou. Spatial patterns of population dynamics revealed a continuous range contraction and an increasing fragmentation of mountain caribou into smaller, isolated subpopulations. The population fragmentation process predominantly occurs at the outer boundaries of the current distribution. Our results indicate that recovery strategies for mountain caribou should be directed at factors contributing to the fragmentation and isolation of mountain caribou populations as well as management strategies aimed at increasing adult survival.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document