Climate stress as a precursor to forest decline: paper birch in northern Michigan, 1985–1990

1993 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 229-233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth A. Jones ◽  
David D. Reed ◽  
Glenn D. Mroz ◽  
Hal O. Liechty ◽  
Peter J. Cattelino
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Growing Seasons ◽  
Climate Stress ◽  
Bronze Birch Borer ◽  
Paper Birch ◽  
Study Sites ◽  
Northern Michigan

Widespread paper birch (Betulapapyrifera Marsh.) mortality associated with the activity of the bronze birch borer (Agrilusanxius Gory) was observed across northern Michigan in 1991. This mortality occurred at two study sites on which paper birch growth has been intensively monitored since 1985. Recent warmer than normal growing seasons and lower than normal moisture availability are statistically associated with a reduction in annual diameter growth. On one study site 62% of the paper birch study trees were dead and 13% were visibly declining; on the other study site, although no trees were dead, 25% of the paper birch study trees were visibly declining. Growth reductions since 1985 suggest that the species was under climatic stress, making it more vulnerable to pest–pathogen activity. The evidence of the role of climatic conditions acting as a precursor to decline and mortality on these sites is of serious concern given recent projections of warmer temperatures and lower precipitation for this region by several global-climate models.

Breeding strategies in a changing climate and implications for biodiversity

1992 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 472-475 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. P. Fowler ◽  
J. A. Loo-Dinkins
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Forest Tree ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Short Rotation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Time Of Harvest

Most global climate models predict a rapid increase in temperature over the next few decades as a result of elevated levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Although the resolution of the existing models is not sufficient to predict specific weather patterns for the Maritimes region, the predicted rate of change is such that forest tree populations will be unable to adapt fully to future conditions. If conventional rotation lengths are planned, presently adapted seedlings will be poorly adapted to the new conditions by the time of harvest. A three-pronged approach is proposed to mitigate the impact of climate change in the Maritimes: development of short rotation clonal forestry, testing and breeding for stability of genotypes over a range of climatic conditions, and collection, storage, and testing of native and non-native materials of potential value.

scholarly journals Coccolithophore productivity at the western Iberian Margin during the middle Pleistocene (310–455 ka) – evidence from coccolith Sr/Ca data

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catarina Cavaleiro ◽  
Antje H. L. Voelker ◽  
Heather Stoll ◽  
Karl-Heinz Baumann ◽  
Michal Kucera
Keyword(s):  
Surface Waters ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Accumulation Rate ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Silica Content ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Middle Pleistocene ◽  
Iberian Margin

Abstract. Coccolithophores contribute significantly to the marine primary productivity and play a unique role in ocean biogeochemistry by using carbon for photosynthesis (biological pump) and also for calcification (carbonate pump). Despite the importance of including coccolithophores in global climate models to allow better predictions of the climate system's responses to planetary change, highly uncertain coccolithophore paleoproductivity past reconstructions mostly relied on proxies dependent on accumulation and sedimentation rates, and preservation conditions. In this study we used an independent proxy, based on the coccolith fraction (CF) Sr/Ca ratio, to reconstruct coccolithophore productivity. We used the marine sediment core MD03-2699 from the western Iberian margin (IbM), spanning the glacial/interglacial cycles of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 12 to MIS 9. We found that IbM coccolithophore productivity was controlled by changes in the oceanographic conditions, such as in SST, the competition for nutrients with other phytoplankton groups and insolation. Long-term coccolithophore productivity was primarily affected by variations in the dominant water mass. Polar and subpolar surface waters during glacial substages were associated with decreased coccolithophore productivity, with strongest productivity minima being concomitant with Heinrich-type events (HtE). Subtropical, nutrient-poorer waters during interglacial substages, i.e. MIS 11c, might have lead to intensified competition for nutrients with diatoms resulting in intermediate levels of coccolithophore productivity. The transition from interglacial to glacial substages was likely associated with increasing presence of nutrient-richer waters, possibly with lower silica content than riverine discharges and mostly fed by either upwelling or surface waters of northern origin. This minimized the competition with diatoms and coccolithophores reached their productivity maxima. Climatic conditions during colder periods forced coccolithophores to change their phenology contributing to the dissonance between the CF Sr/Ca derived coccolithophore productivity and nannofossil accumulation rate and total alkenone flux, which is interpreted as a consequence of the narrowing yearly time-window for coccolithophore productivity.

Future ant invasions in France

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 217-228 ◽  
Author(s):  
CLEO BERTELSMEIER ◽  
FRANCK COURCHAMP
Keyword(s):  
Invasive Species ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Invasive Ants ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Wasmannia Auropunctata

SUMMARYAnts are among the worst invasive species, and can have tremendous negative impacts on native biodiversity, agriculture, estates, property and human health. Invasive ants are extremely difficult to control, and thus early detection is essential to prevent ant invasions, in particular through surveillance efforts at ports of entry. This paper assesses the potential distribution of 14 of the worst invasive ant species in France, under current and future climatic conditions. Consensus species distribution models, using five different modelling techniques, three global climate models and two CO2 emission scenarios, indicated that France presented suitable areas for 10/14 species, including five listed on the Invasive Species Specialist Group's selection of the world's 100 worst invasive species. Among these 10 species, eight were predicted to increase their potential range with climate change. Areas with the highest concentration of potential invaders were mainly located along the coastline, especially in the south-west of France, but all departments appeared to be climatically suitable for at least two invasive species. A ranking of climatic suitability per species for 17 major airports and 14 maritime ports indicated that the ports of entry with the highest suitability were located in Biarritz, Toulon and Nice, and the species with the greatest potential distribution in France were Lasius neglectus and Linepithema humile, followed by Solenopsis richteri, Pheidole megacephala and Wasmannia auropunctata.

Environmental drivers of large, infrequent wildfires: the emerging conceptual model

2007 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 287-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Meyn ◽  
Peter S. White ◽  
Constanze Buhk ◽  
Anke Jentsch
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Seasonally Dry ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Human Management

Large, infrequent fires (LIFs) can have substantial impacts on both ecosystems and the economy. To better understand LIFs and to better predict the effects of human management and climate change on their occurrence, we must first determine the factors that produce them. Here, we review local and regional literature investigating the drivers of LIFs. The emerging conceptual model proposes that ecosystems can be typified based on climatic conditions that determine both fuel moisture and fuel amount. The concept distinguishes three ecosystem types: (1) biomass-rich, rarely dry ecosystems where fuel moisture rather than fuel amount limits LIFs; (2) biomass-poor, at least seasonally dry ecosystems where fuel amount rather than fuel moisture limits LIFs; and (3) biomass-poor, rarely dry ecosystems where both fuel amount and fuel moisture limit the occurrence of LIFs. Our main goal in this paper is to discuss the drivers of LIFs and the three mentioned ecosystem types in a global context. Further, we will discuss the drivers that are not included within the `fuels' versus `climate' discussion. Finally, we will address the question: what kinds of additional information are needed if models predicting LIFs are to be coupled with global climate models? As with all generalizations, there are local deviations and modifications due to processes such as disturbance interaction or human impact. These processes tend to obscure the general patterns of the occurrence of LIFs and are likely to cause much of the observed controversy and confusion in the literature.

scholarly journals Analysis of the observed and modelled budburst dates of grapevine in Croatia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Branimir Omazić ◽  
Maja Telišman Prtenjak ◽  
Ivan Prša ◽  
Marko Karoglan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Base Temperature ◽  
Spring Frost

<p>Since changes in temperatures and precipitation significantly affect the biosphere, viticulture as an important economic branch in the moderate latitudes (e.g., mainly between 35°N and 55°N) is strongly influenced by climate change. The most commonly analysed/modelled phenological phases of grapevines are budburst (beginning of grapevine seasonal growth), flowering (crucial for the reproductive cycle) and veraison (initiation of the ripening). Resent studies indicate that budburst is greatly regulated by temperature. Due to climate change and temperature increase, budburst dates show trends in earlier occurrences at several available stations throughout Croatia which increases the vulnerability of the grapevine to the spring frost.</p><p>The aim of this study is to determine trends and changes in budburst date, their statistical characteristics at available stations in period 1961-2020 in Croatia. We focus on four grapevine varieties, two white (Graševina and Chardonnay) and two red (Merlot and Plavac Mali) and performance of statistical models (GDD, Riou’s model and BRIN model) that predict budburst dates in the present climate. For this purpose an effect of the dormancy period and base temperature on the simulated budburst date have been explored. The study is further extended to future climatic conditions using statistical and numerical climate models. Therefore, a daily output from three CORDEX Regional Climate Models’ (RCMs) simulations (CLMcom-CCLM4-8-17, SMHI-RCA4, CNRM-ALADIN5.3) for Croatian domain are used. All RCMs are forced by Global Climate Models (GCMs) with a moderate (RCP4.5) and a high-end (RCP8.5) green-house gass (GHG) scenario(s) and all the simulations have horizontal grid spacing of 0.11°. Results indicate further earlier appearance of budburst regardless of varieties.</p>

Extreme Events in High Resolution CMCC Regional and Global Climate Models

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrico Scoccimarro ◽  
Silvio Gualdi ◽  
Antonella Sanna ◽  
Edoardo Bucchignani ◽  
Myriam Montesarchio
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models

scholarly journals Global climatology and trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mateusz Taszarek ◽  
John T. Allen ◽  
Mattia Marchio ◽  
Harold E. Brooks
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Rawinsonde Data

AbstractGlobally, thunderstorms are responsible for a significant fraction of rainfall, and in the mid-latitudes often produce extreme weather, including large hail, tornadoes and damaging winds. Despite this importance, how the global frequency of thunderstorms and their accompanying hazards has changed over the past 4 decades remains unclear. Large-scale diagnostics applied to global climate models have suggested that the frequency of thunderstorms and their intensity is likely to increase in the future. Here, we show that according to ERA5 convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective precipitation (CP) have decreased over the tropics and subtropics with simultaneous increases in 0–6 km wind shear (BS06). Conversely, rawinsonde observations paint a different picture across the mid-latitudes with increasing CAPE and significant decreases to BS06. Differing trends and disagreement between ERA5 and rawinsondes observed over some regions suggest that results should be interpreted with caution, especially for CAPE and CP across tropics where uncertainty is the highest and reliable long-term rawinsonde observations are missing.

scholarly journals Regions of intensification of extreme snowfall under future warming

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lennart Quante ◽  
Sven N. Willner ◽  
Robin Middelanis ◽  
Anders Levermann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Observational Data ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Average Intensity ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Future Warming

AbstractDue to climate change the frequency and character of precipitation are changing as the hydrological cycle intensifies. With regards to snowfall, global warming has two opposing influences; increasing humidity enables intense snowfall, whereas higher temperatures decrease the likelihood of snowfall. Here we show an intensification of extreme snowfall across large areas of the Northern Hemisphere under future warming. This is robust across an ensemble of global climate models when they are bias-corrected with observational data. While mean daily snowfall decreases, both the 99th and the 99.9th percentiles of daily snowfall increase in many regions in the next decades, especially for Northern America and Asia. Additionally, the average intensity of snowfall events exceeding these percentiles as experienced historically increases in many regions. This is likely to pose a challenge to municipalities in mid to high latitudes. Overall, extreme snowfall events are likely to become an increasingly important impact of climate change in the next decades, even if they will become rarer, but not necessarily less intense, in the second half of the century.

scholarly journals Reassessing Existing Reservoir Supply Capacity and Management Resilience under Climate Change and Sediment Deposition

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 1819
Author(s):  
Eleni S. Bekri ◽  
Polychronis Economou ◽  
Panayotis C. Yannopoulos ◽  
Alexander C. Demetracopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Sediment Deposition ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Management Scenario ◽  
Supply Capacity

Freshwater resources are limited and seasonally and spatially unevenly distributed. Thus, in water resources management plans, storage reservoirs play a vital role in safeguarding drinking, irrigation, hydropower and livestock water supply. In the last decades, the dams’ negative effects, such as fragmentation of water flow and sediment transport, are considered in decision-making, for achieving an optimal balance between human needs and healthy riverine and coastal ecosystems. Currently, operation of existing reservoirs is challenged by increasing water demand, climate change effects and active storage reduction due to sediment deposition, jeopardizing their supply capacity. This paper proposes a methodological framework to reassess supply capacity and management resilience for an existing reservoir under these challenges. Future projections are derived by plausible climate scenarios and global climate models and by stochastic simulation of historic data. An alternative basic reservoir management scenario with a very low exceedance probability is derived. Excess water volumes are investigated under a probabilistic prism for enabling multiple-purpose water demands. Finally, this method is showcased to the Ladhon Reservoir (Greece). The probable total benefit from water allocated to the various water uses is estimated to assist decision makers in examining the tradeoffs between the probable additional benefit and risk of exceedance.

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