Why mountain pine beetle exacerbates a principal–agent relationship: exploring strategic policy responses to beetle attack in a mixed species forest

2012 ◽  
Vol 42 (3) ◽  
pp. 621-630 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Bogle ◽  
G. Cornelis van Kooten
Keyword(s):  
Time Horizon ◽  
Mountain Pine Beetle ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
Mixed Species ◽  
Timber Supply ◽  
Mountain Pine ◽  
Pine Beetle ◽  
The Government ◽  
Mixed Species Forest

The management of public forestland is often carried out by private forest companies, in which case the landowner needs to exercise care in dealing with catastrophic natural disturbance. We use the mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, 1902) damage in British Columbia to explore how the public resource owner can protect future timber supply while salvaging damaged stands. We examine the variability and timing of beetle attack in a mixed species forest using mathematical programming to schedule harvest but employ the novel strategy of maximizing the timber portfolio at the end of the 20 year time horizon rather than net present value. Various financial and even-flow constraints insure a modicum of stability during the salvage period. We also model supply of adequate feedstock for electricity generation. Based on our study, the optimal short-run response to beetle damage is to increase harvests in stands with 70% or more lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorta var. latifolia Engelm. ex S. Watson) that would otherwise be uneconomic to harvest, similar to operational practice reported by the BC government. The government could focus on stable supply of individual forest products over the time horizon, thereby also stabilizing short-term revenues. Alternatively, it could emphasize an even-flow of total harvest to greatly enhance revenues (which also exhibit greater volatility) and rely more heavily on future harvests of damaged timber. Regardless of the strategy chosen, optimizing future timber supply potential means that a large proportion (about 25% in this study) of damaged pine is left for future harvest, although it will not be of sufficient quality to produce lumber.

Mountain pine beetle, global markets, and the British Columbia forest economy

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (7) ◽  
pp. 1313-1321 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brant Abbott ◽  
Brad Stennes ◽  
G. Cornelis van Kooten
Keyword(s):  
British Columbia ◽  
Mountain Pine Beetle ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
The United States ◽  
Timber Supply ◽  
Trade Model ◽  
Mountain Pine ◽  
Export Tax ◽  
Pine Beetle ◽  
Near Term

A number of near-term timber supply shocks are projected to impact global forest product markets, particularly mountain pine beetle induced timber reductions, a Russian log export tax, and timber supply increases from plantation forests in the Southern Hemisphere and Sweden. We examined their effect on a number of global jurisdictions using a dynamic global forest products trade model that separates British Columbia (BC) into coastal and interior forest sectors. The results suggest that global increases in plantation timber would have negligible effects on BC log and lumber markets, that the Russian tax would have minor effects on this market, and that the beetle-induced timber supply drop would moderately increase BC prices (primarily log prices). In the United States South, lumber and log prices could rise as a result of the mountain pine beetle, while other shocks will have a negligible impact on prices. Yet, lumber production will fall because log prices will increase substantially more than lumber prices. Japan could be impacted much more than other regions by the Russian tax on log exports. In the absence of export taxes, a beetle-induced timber shortage would cause lumber production in Japan to rise (as Japan can access nearby Russian logs), while the export tax would reduce lumber production because log prices rise disproportionately more than in other regions.

Assessing forest management strategies under a mountain pine beetle attack in Alberta: exploring the impacts

2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 597-610 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne-Hélène Mathey ◽  
Harry Nelson
Keyword(s):  
Forest Management ◽  
Mountain Pine Beetle ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Timber Supply ◽  
Growing Stock ◽  
Management Objectives ◽  
Mountain Pine ◽  
Resource Managers ◽  
Recourse Approach ◽  
Pine Beetle

We explore how forest resource managers can respond to a potential outbreak of mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, 1902) by assessing how well different forest management strategies achieve various management objectives over time. Strategies include targeting at-risk stands as well as increasing harvest levels. Outcomes are evaluated on the basis of volume flows, net revenues, and the age class structure of the ending inventory. We use a spatially and temporally explicit model to simulate forest management outcomes and consider two different scenarios, one in which the attack occurs early and one where it is delayed. The model utilizes a planning with recourse approach in which the firm can reevaluate its harvesting schedule following the attack. We use company data from west-central Alberta for a 40-year planning exercise. The timing of the attack resulted in small differences in timber supply. However, most strategies performed better financially under an early attack, which limits the harvest of marginal stands. Increasing harvest levels performed better in economic terms but resulted in a very young growing stock with little old forest. The success of any strategy is linked to the timing of the attack and how it affects the growing stock, subsequently impacting timber and revenue flows.

scholarly journals Effects of a Severe Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemic in Western Alberta, Canada under Two Forest Management Scenarios

2010 ◽  
Vol 2010 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard R. Schneider ◽  
Maria Cecilia Latham ◽  
Brad Stelfox ◽  
Dan Farr ◽  
Stan Boutin
Keyword(s):  
Mountain Pine Beetle ◽  
High Volume ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Mixed Stands ◽  
Timber Supply ◽  
Mountain Pine ◽  
Pine Beetle ◽  
Pine Stands ◽  
Management Approaches

We used a simulation model to investigate possible effects of a severe mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosaeHopkins) epidemic under two management scenarios in Alberta, Canada. Our simulated outbreak was based on the current epidemic in British Columbia, which may kill close to 80% of the province's pine volume. Our two management scenarios were conventional harvest and a pine-reduction strategy modeled on a component of Alberta's Mountain Pine Beetle Management Strategy. The pine strategy seeks to reduce the number of susceptible pine stands by 75% over the next 20 years through targeted harvesting by the forest industry. Our simulations showed that the pine strategy could not be effectively implemented, even if the onset of the beetle outbreak was delayed for 20 years. Even though we increased mill capacity by 20% and directed all harvesting to high volume pine stands during the pine strategy's surge cut, the amount of highly susceptible pine was reduced by only 43%. Additional pine volume remained within mixed stands that were not targeted by the pine strategy. When the outbreak occurred in each scenario, sufficient pine remained on the landscape for the beetle to cause the timber supply to collapse. Alternative management approaches and avenues for future research are discussed.

scholarly journals MPB Critical Forest Inventory

2014 ◽  
Vol 90 (04) ◽  
pp. 475-478
Keyword(s):  
Species Composition ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Forest Inventory ◽  
Mountain Pine Beetle ◽  
Tree Height ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Yield Analysis ◽  
Mountain Pine ◽  
Pine Beetle

The Mountain Pine Beetle epidemic in Alberta has been substantial, with several forest products companies facing a potential decrease in fibre supply as a result. Accurate forest inventory is integral in developing management strategies that effectively address the infestation. Within this context, forest inventory must provide enough species composition detail to allow the design of appropriate harvesting activities. The project evaluated the use of softcopy photo-interpretation and a semi-automated inventory approach to create a forest inventory with a higher level of detail, and looked to advance these methodologies to explore whether metrics such as tree height and volume could also be included. The project also aimed to demonstrate the benefits that such an inventory could provide in growth and yield analysis and within the general framework of integrated land management. Results indicate that the more detailed inventory is useful in addressing forest management challenges associated with the Mountain Pine Beetle infestation and in improving growth and yield analysis, resulting in an overall enhancement to strategic and operational planning. The inventory can also be used for integrated land management, allowing for species composition to be spatially identified within the stand and the identification of other features including anthropogenic disturbance and microsites.

Effects of fire return rates on traversability of lodgepole pine forests for mountain pine beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) and the use of patch metrics to estimate traversability

2005 ◽  
Vol 137 (5) ◽  
pp. 566-583 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huge J. Barclay ◽  
Chao Li ◽  
Laura Benson ◽  
Steve Taylor ◽  
Terry Shore
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Mountain Pine Beetle ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Lodgepole Pine ◽  
Timber Supply ◽  
Beetle Population ◽  
Return Rates ◽  
Mountain Pine ◽  
Pine Beetle ◽  
The Mean

AbstractMonte-Carlo simulation was used to examine the effects of fire return rates on the equilibrium age structure of a one-million-hectare lodgepole pine forest (Pinus contorta var. latifolia Engelm. ex S. Wats.; Pinaceae) and yielded a mosaic of ages over the one million hectares for each fire regime modelled. These mosaics were used to generate mosaics of susceptibility to mountain pine beetle (MPB) (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, 1902) attack. This susceptibility was related to the age distribution to calculate the mean susceptibility of the forest. Susceptibility maps were produced for two timber supply areas in British Columbia, as well as for the whole of B.C. In addition, we defined a quality, called traversability, that describes the ability of a beetle population to disperse across a landscape according to defined rules of susceptibility and maximum distance for dispersal through unsuitable habitat. Using each of 40 combinations of susceptibility classifications and dispersal limits, the landscape was categorized as traversable or non-traversable. This represents the suitability of a landscape to the unimpeded spread of an incipient beetle population. It was found that (i) long fire cycles yield an age structure highly susceptible to beetle attack; (ii) fire suppression reduces the frequency of fires and yields an age structure highly susceptible to beetle attack; and (iii) harvesting one age class reduces the mean susceptibility to MPB attack, and this reduction decreases with increasing harvest age and increasing fire cycle length. When fires were limited in size to less than 100 ha, the area was always traversable. For larger fires, traversability declined, and for the largest fires (up to one million hectares), the area was often not traversable. Harvesting reduced the mean susceptibility and traversability, often substantially. Traversability was calculated for the whole of B.C. in blocks of about one million hectares using B.C. Ministry of Forests and Range inventory data for the year 2000. The area most traversable was the area around Tweedsmuir Park and the Lakes Timber Supply Area, where most of the present outbreak of MPB is centred. FRAGSTATS patch metrics were calculated for each of the simulations and were related to traversability using discriminant analysis. This analysis was then applied to the B.C. inventory; the concordance was high, with 93.3% of conditions being correctly classified.

Modeling the effect of changing market conditions on mountain pine beetle salvage harvesting and structural changes in the British Columbia forest products industry

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (10) ◽  
pp. 1806-1820 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olaf Schwab ◽  
Thomas Maness ◽  
Gary Bull ◽  
Don Roberts
Keyword(s):  
British Columbia ◽  
Mountain Pine Beetle ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
Wood Products ◽  
Forest Sector ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Mountain Pine ◽  
Pine Beetle ◽  
Salvage Harvesting

This paper describes the development and implementation of Cambium, an agent-based forest sector model for strategic analysis. This model is designed as a decision-support tool for assessing the effects that changes in product demand and resource inventories can have on the structure and economic viability of the forest sector. Cambium models aggregate product supply as an emergent property of individual companies’ production decisions and stand-level ecological processes. Modeling the forest-products sector as a group of interacting autonomous economic agents makes it possible to include production capacity dynamics and the potential for mill insolvencies as factors in analyzing the effects of market and forest inventory based disturbances. The utility of this model is tested by assessing the impacts of a market downturn in the US forest products market on forest industry structure and mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) salvage harvesting in British Columbia, Canada. Simulation results indicate a significant medium-term timber supply shortage; reduced stumpage revenues; intensive cost competition among primary wood-products manufacturers; and a large number of insolvencies in the panel, lumber, and pulp sectors.

scholarly journals BC’s Representational Silviculture and the Negative Affect of the Pine Beetle Animal Story

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-32
Author(s):  
V. Haynes
Keyword(s):  
Negative Affect ◽  
Mountain Pine Beetle ◽  
Ecological Crisis ◽  
Mountain Pine ◽  
Pine Beetle ◽  
The Government

Examining the broader question, “What role does the animal story play in the narration of ecological crisis and how does that narrative impact the story subject,” this paper focuses on the Mountain Pine Beetle eco-crisis consuming the forests of BC. I assert that the government constructs an animal story for the Pine Beetle and capitalizes on the negative affect it associates with the story to manipulate the public’s sense of blame and responsibility for the crisis. As a result of this representation, the Pine Beetle ceases to be animal and bears responsibility for the crisis while being denied the possibility of an inhabitant’s right to the forest.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document