Detection of high-wind events using tree-ring data

2011 ◽  
Vol 41 (5) ◽  
pp. 1121-1129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith S. Hadley ◽  
Paul A. Knapp
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
High Wind ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Wind Events

Windstorms are common events in midlatitude west coast climates yet little is known about their long-term history and influence on regional forests. In this paper, we present a procedure that detects the timing and frequency of these high-wind events (HWEs) along the Pacific Northwest coast of North America using crossdated tree-ring measurements and detrended tree-ring chronologies derived from windsnapped trees. Our results show that abrupt changes in ring width patterns closely match dates of known HWEs and can serve as a nonclimatic basis for crossdating. Experimentation with different growth suppression and release criteria revealed that either a 50% decrease or a 50% increase in radial growth relative to the mean index value provided the best criterion for detecting windstorm-related growth anomalies. Comparing these results with the known occurrence of windstorms during the past century successfully identified all known major wind events during the study period. Low correlations between tree growth and climatic variables further imply that HWEs are the principal cause of interannual growth variations. Accordingly, we discuss the application of our procedure toward the development of a multicentury reconstruction of HWEs, a long-term analysis of decadal climate variability and HWEs, and the ecological role of HWEs in Pacific Northwest and other west coast forests.

Tree growth across the Nepal Himalaya during the last four centuries

2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 478-495 ◽  
Author(s):  
UK Thapa ◽  
S St. George ◽  
DK Kharal ◽  
NP Gaire
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Tree Growth ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Tree Ring Width ◽  
Early 19Th Century ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Instrumental Records

The climate of Nepal has changed rapidly over the recent decades, but most instrumental records of weather and hydrology only extend back to the 1980s. Tree rings can provide a longer perspective on recent environmental changes, and since the early 2000s, a new round of field initiatives by international researchers and Nepali scientists have more than doubled the size of the country’s tree-ring network. In this paper, we present a comprehensive analysis of the current tree-ring width network for Nepal, and use this network to estimate changes in forest growth nation-wide during the last four centuries. Ring-width chronologies in Nepal have been developed from 11 tree species, and half of the records span at least 290 years. The Nepal tree-ring width network provides a robust estimate of annual forest growth over roughly the last four centuries, but prior to this point, our mean ring-width composite fluctuates wildly due to low sample replication. Over the last four centuries, two major events are prominent in the all-Nepal composite: (i) a prolonged and widespread growth suppression during the early 1800s; and (ii) heightened growth during the most recent decade. The early 19th century decline in tree growth coincides with two major Indonesian eruptions, and suggests that short-term disturbances related to climate extremes can exert a lasting influence on the vigor of Nepal’s forests. Growth increases since AD 2000 are mainly apparent in high-elevation fir, which may be a consequence of the observed trend towards warmer temperatures, particularly during winter. This synthesis effort should be useful to establish baselines for tree-ring data in Nepal and provide a broader context to evaluate the sensitivity or behavior of this proxy in the central Himalayas.

Developing a triple tree-ring constraint for tree growth and physiology in a global land surface model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Barichivich ◽  
Philippe Peylin ◽  
Valérie Daux ◽  
Camille Risi ◽  
Jina Jeong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Forest Ecosystems ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Growth Variability ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Surface Models ◽  
Global Land

<p>Gradual anthropogenic warming and parallel changes in the major global biogeochemical cycles are slowly pushing forest ecosystems into novel growing conditions, with uncertain consequences for ecosystem dynamics and climate. Short-term forest responses (i.e., years to a decade) to global change factors are relatively well understood and skilfully simulated by land surface models (LSMs). However, confidence on model projections weaken towards longer time scales and to the future, mainly because the long-term responses (i.e., decade to century) of these models remain unconstrained. This issue limits confidence on climate model projections. Annually-resolved tree-ring records, extending back to pre-industrial conditions, have the potential to constrain model responses at interannual to centennial time scales. Here, we constrain the representation of tree growth and physiology in the ORCHIDEE global land surface model using the simulated interannual variability of tree-ring width and carbon (Δ<sup>13</sup>C) and oxygen (δ<sup>18</sup>O) stable isotopes in six sites in boreal and temperate Europe.  The model simulates Δ<sup>13</sup>C (r = 0.31-0.80) and δ<sup>18</sup>O (r = 0.36-0.74) variability better than tree-ring width variability (r < 0.55), with an overall skill similar to that of other state-of-the-art models such as MAIDENiso and LPX-Bern. These results show that growth variability is not well represented, and that the parameterization of leaf-level physiological responses to drought stress in the temperate region can be improved with tree-ring data. The representation of carbon storage and remobilization dynamics is critical to improve the realism of simulated growth variability, temporal carrying over and recovery of forest ecosystems after climate extremes. The simulated physiological response to rising CO2 over the 20th century is consistent with tree-ring data in the temperate region, despite an overestimation of seasonal drought stress and stomatal control on photosynthesis. Photosynthesis correlates directly with isotopic variability, but correlations with δ<sup>18</sup>O combine physiological effects and climate variability impacts on source water signatures. The integration of tree-ring data (i.e. the triple constraint: width, Δ<sup>13</sup>C and δ<sup>18</sup>O) and land surface models as demonstrated here should contribute towards reducing current uncertainties in forest carbon and water cycling.</p>

scholarly journals Forward modelling of tree-ring width and comparison with a global network of tree-ring chronologies

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 437-449 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Breitenmoser ◽  
S. Brönnimann ◽  
D. Frank
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Global Network ◽  
Threshold Temperature ◽  
Tree Ring Width ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Observation Operator ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract. We investigate relationships between climate and tree-ring data on a global scale using the process-based Vaganov–Shashkin Lite (VSL) forward model of tree-ring width formation. The VSL model requires as inputs only latitude, monthly mean temperature, and monthly accumulated precipitation. Hence, this simple, process-based model enables ring-width simulation at any location where monthly climate records exist. In this study, we analyse the growth response of simulated tree rings to monthly climate conditions obtained from the CRU TS3.1 data set back to 1901. Our key aims are (a) to assess the VSL model performance by examining the relations between simulated and observed growth at 2287 globally distributed sites, (b) indentify optimal growth parameters found during the model calibration, and (c) to evaluate the potential of the VSL model as an observation operator for data-assimilation-based reconstructions of climate from tree-ring width. The assessment of the growth-onset threshold temperature of approximately 4–6 °C for most sites and species using a Bayesian estimation approach complements other studies on the lower temperature limits where plant growth may be sustained. Our results suggest that the VSL model skilfully simulates site level tree-ring series in response to climate forcing for a wide range of environmental conditions and species. Spatial aggregation of the tree-ring chronologies to reduce non-climatic noise at the site level yielded notable improvements in the coherence between modelled and actual growth. The resulting distinct and coherent patterns of significant relationships between the aggregated and simulated series further demonstrate the VSL model's ability to skilfully capture the climatic signal contained in tree-ring series. Finally, we propose that the VSL model can be used as an observation operator in data assimilation approaches to reconstruct past climate.

Bristlecone pine tree rings and volcanic eruptions over the last 5000 yr

2007 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew W. Salzer ◽  
Malcolm K. Hughes
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Pine Tree ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Pinus Longaeva ◽  
Bristlecone Pine ◽  
Ice Core Record ◽  
Pinus Aristata

AbstractMany years of low growth identified in a western USA regional chronology of upper forest border bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva and Pinus aristata) over the last 5000 yr coincide with known large explosive volcanic eruptions and/or ice core signals of past eruptions. Over the last millennium the agreement between the tree-ring data and volcano/ice-core data is high: years of ring-width minima can be matched with known volcanic eruptions or ice-core volcanic signals in 86% of cases. In previous millennia, while there is substantial concurrence, the agreement decreases with increasing antiquity. Many of the bristlecone pine ring-width minima occurred at the same time as ring-width minima in high latitude trees from northwestern Siberia and/or northern Finland over the past 4000–5000 yr, suggesting climatically-effective events of at least hemispheric scale. In contrast with the ice-core records, the agreement between widely separated tree-ring records does not decrease with increasing antiquity. These data suggest specific intervals when the climate system was or was not particularly sensitive enough to volcanic forcing to affect the trees, and they augment the ice core record in a number of ways: by providing confirmation from an alternative proxy record for volcanic signals, by suggesting alternative dates for eruptions, and by adding to the list of years when volcanic events of global significance were likely, including the mid-2nd-millennium BC eruption of Thera.

scholarly journals How Long Does a 15-Year Drought Last? On the Correlation of Rare Events

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 1345-1359 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Rhee ◽  
Jimmy Salazar ◽  
Corwin Grigg
Keyword(s):  
Water Supply ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
River System ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Supply Problem ◽  
Quantitative Understanding ◽  
Streamflow Statistics

Abstract Communities reliant upon the Colorado River system are at risk of water shortages because of fluctuations of the river’s streamflows. The solution to the water supply problem for the Colorado River system lies within a quantitative understanding of these fluctuations during droughts. Streamflow data (direct and inferred) for the Colorado River extend back approximately 1200 years through the analysis of tree-ring records (Meko et al.; Woodhouse et al.). We further analyze these data using a mathematical model to present estimates for the future water supply of the Colorado River by comparing measured streamflows of the past century with the yearly tree-ring data of the Colorado River. We estimate that the Colorado River system’s reservoirs lack enough stored water reserves to last through the current drought, which has been ongoing since 2000. If true, it is essential to reevaluate the way water is used and stored for the Colorado River. The methods presented are relevant to any river system whose streamflow statistics are Gaussian.

scholarly journals Multiproxy records of climate variability for Kamchatka for the past 400 years

2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Solomina ◽  
G. Wiles ◽  
T. Shiraiwa ◽  
R. D'Arrigo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Summer Temperature ◽  
Positive Anomaly ◽  
Temperature Decrease ◽  
Positive Mass ◽  
The Past ◽  
Tree Ring Data

Abstract. Tree ring, ice core and glacial geologic histories for the past several centuries offer an opportunity to characterize climate variability and to identify the key climate parameters forcing glacier expansion in Kamchatka over the past 400 years. A newly developed larch ring-width chronology (AD 1632–2004) is presented that is sensitive to past summer temperature variability. Individual low growth years in the larch record are associated with several known and proposed volcanic events from the Northern Hemisphere. The comparison of ring width minima and those of Melt Feature Index of Ushkovsky ice core helps confirm a 1–3 year dating accuracy~for this ice core series over the late 18th to 20th centuries. Decadal variations of low summer temperatures (tree-ring record) and high annual precipitation (ice core record) are broadly consistent with intervals of positive mass balances measured and estimated at several glaciers in 20th century, and with moraine building. According to the tree-ring data the 1860s–1880s were the longest coldest interval in the last 350 years. The latest part of this period (1880s) coincided with the positive anomaly in accumulation. This coincidence led to a positive mass balance, which is most likely responsible for glacier advances and moraine deposition of the end of 19th-early 20th centuries. As well as in some other high latitude regions (Spitsbergen, Polar Urals, Franz Jozef Land etc.) in Kamchatka these advances marked the last millennium glacial maximum. In full agreement with subsequent summer warming trend, inferred both from instrumental and tree ring data, glacier advances since 1880s have been less extensive. The late 18th century glacier expansion coincides with the inferred summer temperature decrease recorded by the ring width chronology. However, both the advance and the summer temperature decrease were less prominent that in the end of 19th century. Comparisons of the glacier history in Kamchatka with records from Alaska and the Canadian Rockies suggests broadly consistent intervals of glacier expansion and inferred summer cooling during solar irradiance minima.

scholarly journals Independent Aridity and Drought Pieces of Evidence Based on Meteorological Data and Tree Ring Data in Southeast Banat, Vojvodina, Serbia

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 586 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milivoj B. Gavrilov ◽  
Wenling An ◽  
Chenxi Xu ◽  
Milica G. Radaković ◽  
Qingzhen Hao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Aridity Index ◽  
Precipitation Trend ◽  
Positive Temperature ◽  
Tree Ring Width ◽  
Tree Ring Data

In this study, aridity data and tree ring data were collected in Northern Serbia, in Southeast (SE) Banat, a subregion within Vojvodina, and Vojvodina at large. They were each investigated independently. The De Martonne Aridity Index and the Forestry Aridity Index are derived from examining the relationship between precipitation and surface air temperature data sets sourced from seven meteorological stations in SE Banat, and from 10 meteorological stations located in Vojvodina as a whole. Vojvodina is a large territory and used as the control area, for the period 1949–2017. The Palmer Drought Severity Index was derived for the period 1927–2016, for both SE Banat and the totality of Vojvodina. The results of the Tree Ring Width Index were obtained from samples collected in or around the villages of Vlajkovac and Šušara, both located in SE Banat, for the period 1927–2017. These tree ring records were compared with three previous aridity and drought indices, and the meteorological data on the surface air temperature and the precipitation, with the objective being to evaluate the response of tree growth to climate dynamics in the SE Banat subregion. It was noted that the significant positive temperature trends recorded in both areas were too insufficient to trigger any trends in aridity or the Tree Ring Width Index, as neither displayed any change. Instead, it appears that these climatic parameters only changed in response to the precipitation trend, which remained unchanged during the investigated period, rather than in response to the temperature trend. It appears that the forest vegetation in the investigated areas was not affected significantly by climate change in response to the dominant temperature increase.

Impact of the 536/540 CE double volcanic eruption event on the 6th-7th century climate using model and proxy data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evelien van Dijk ◽  
Claudia Timmreck ◽  
Johann Jungclaus ◽  
Stephan Lorenz ◽  
Manon Bajard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Volcanic Eruption ◽  
Detailed Comparison ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Volcanic Forcing ◽  
The Impact

<p>The mid of the 6<sup>th</sup> century is an outstanding period and started with an unusual cold period that lasted several years to decades, due to the 536/540 CE double eruption event, with the strongest decadal volcanic forcing in the last 2000 years. Evidence from multiple tree ring records from the Alps to the Altai Mountains in Russia identified a centennial cooling lasting from 536 up to 660 CE. A previous Earth System Model (ESM) study with reconstructed volcanic forcing covering 535-550 CE like conditions already found that the double eruption led to a global decrease in temperature and an increase in Arctic sea-ice for at least a decade. However, the simulations were too short to fully investigate the multi-decadal cooling event and the atmospheric forcing from this double volcanic eruption alone may not be enough to sustain such a prolonged cooling. To better understand forced versus internal decadal climate variability in the first millennium we have performed mid 6<sup>th</sup> century ensemble simulations with the MPI-ESM1.2 for the 520-680 CE period. The ensemble consists of 10 realizations, which were branched of the MPI-ESM1.2 PMIP4 Past2k run, including the evolv2k volcanic forcing.</p><p>Here, we present results of this new set of the 6<sup>th</sup>-7<sup>th</sup> century MPI-ESM simulations in comparison to paleo-proxies. Summer surface temperatures are analyzed and compared with available tree-ring data, which fits very well for the entire 160 year period. As part of the VIKINGS project, special focus is placed on the impact of the 536/540 CE double volcanic eruption event on the surface climate in the Northern Hemisphere, in particular Scandinavia, Northern Europe and Siberia. The goal is to also compare the model data with new tree-ring and lake sediment proxies from southeastern Norway. Detailed comparison with proxy data will allow us to better understand the regional and seasonal climate variations of the 6<sup>th</sup>-7<sup>th</sup> century. Duration, strength and the possible mechanism for a long lasting volcanic induced cooling will be discussed.</p>

scholarly journals Episodic and Systematic Tree Ring-Width Variation (AD 1763–2013) in the Takhini Valley, Southwest Yukon, Canada

ARCTIC ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 70 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wayne L Strong
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Polynomial Regression ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Tree Ring Width ◽  
Moisture Index ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Ring Analysis ◽  
Environmental Events

A tree-ring analysis of 764 western white spruce (Picea albertiana) in the Takhini Valley of southwest Yukon was conducted to assess short- and long-term variation in growth and local climate. The resulting chronology spanned the period from AD 1763 to 2013. A polynomial regression (R = 0.720, p < 0.001) indicated that the pre-1840 segment of the chronology had below-normal tree ring-width index (RWI) values (average 0.64, with modest variation), but the subsequent segment had greater variation and a steady increase in RWI values (average 0.89) until ~1920. After 1930, RWI values began to increase again (average 1.06) with 51% more variation than had previously occurred. Peak RWI values after 1930 were double those of the early 1800s. RWI values were uncorrelated with air temperature variables (except September minima), but weakly and positively correlated (r < 0.35) with precipitation variables. RWI values were moderately correlated with annual heat-moisture index values (r = −0.415, p < 0.001), although more strongly with RWI values less than 1.1 (R = −0.631, p < 0.001). Therefore, the RWI chronology was interpreted from an ecological moisture-balance perspective, with possible long-term temperature changes estimated from archival sources. The latter suggested a 2.1˚ – 3.1˚C rise since the early 1800s. Extreme RWI values and portions of the chronology were associated with known environmental events.

scholarly journals Responses of Larix principis-rupprechtii Radial Growth to Climatic Factors at Different Elevations on Guancen Mountain, North-Central China

Forests ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 99
Author(s):  
Jiachuan Wang ◽  
Shuheng Li ◽  
Yili Guo ◽  
Qi Yang ◽  
Rui Ren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Radial Growth ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Coniferous Forest ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Central China ◽  
Summer Drought ◽  
Climate Trends

Larix principis-rupprechtii is an important afforestation tree species in the North China alpine coniferous forest belt. Studying the correlations and response relationships between Larix principis-rupprechtii radial growth and climatic factors at different elevations is helpful for understanding the growth trends of L. principis-rupprechtiind its long-term sensitivity and adaptability to climate change. Pearson correlation, redundancy (RDA), and sliding analysis were performed to study the correlations and dynamic relationships between radial growth and climatic factors. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The three-elevation standard chronologies all exhibited high characteristic values, contained rich climate information and were suitable for tree-ring climatological analyses. (2) Both temperature and precipitation restricted low-elevation L. principis-rupprechtii radial growth, while monthly maximum temperatures mainly affected mid-high-elevation L. principis-rupprechtii radial growth. (3) Mid-elevation L. principis-rupprechtii radial growth responded to climate factors with a “lag effect” and was not restricted by spring and early summer drought. (4) Long-term sliding analysis showed that spring temperatures and winter precipitation were the main climatic factors restricting L. principis-rupprechtii growth under warming and drying climate trends at different elevations. The tree-ring width index and Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) were positively correlated, indicating that L. principis-rupprechtii growth is somewhat restricted by drought. These results provide a reference and guidance for L. principis-rupprechtii management and sustainable development in different regions under warming and drying background climate trends.

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