Predicting tree survival in Ontario sugar maple (Acer saccharum) forests based on crown condition
Decline index (indicator of crown condition) data from 102 forest plots (approximately 10 000 trees) during 1986–2004 were compiled to derive survival models for south-central Ontario, Canada. The dominant species was sugar maple ( Acer saccharum Marsh.) with approximately 75% occurrence (n = 7640). The predictor variables for sugar maple survivorship included the decline index of 1 or 2 years prior to the beginning of the modelled period and ecological region (Algoma, Georgian Bay, Huron–Ontario, and Upper St. Lawrence). The observed crown condition of sugar maple improved significantly over the study period; in contrast, short-term mortality rate did not improve. The risk of sugar maple mortality could be predicted from decline index data for a single year indicating that the risk of tree death increases with higher decline index values (declining crown condition). Moreover, using 2 years of decline index data indicated that the risk of tree death also increased with the length of consecutive time individual trees have higher decline index values. Trees in the Algoma region, which represent the northern limit of sugar maple distribution in Ontario, were significantly more likely to die than trees in Huron–Ontario region.