Assessing accuracy of point fire intervals across landscapes with simulation modelling

2007 ◽  
Vol 37 (9) ◽  
pp. 1605-1614 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell A. Parsons ◽  
Emily K. Heyerdahl ◽  
Robert E. Keane ◽  
Brigitte Dorner ◽  
Joseph Fall
Keyword(s):  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Maximum Error ◽  
Simulation Modelling ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Forest Types ◽  
Fire Scar ◽  
Fire Intervals ◽  
In Fire

We assessed accuracy in point fire intervals using a simulation model that sampled four spatially explicit simulated fire histories. These histories varied in fire frequency and size and were simulated on a flat landscape with two forest types (dry versus mesic). We used three sampling designs (random, systematic grids, and stratified). We assessed the sensitivity of estimates of Weibull median probability fire intervals (WMPI) to sampling design and to factors that degrade the fire scar record: failure of a tree to record a fire and loss of fire-scarred trees. Accuracy was affected by all of the factors investigated and generally varied with fire regime type. The maximum error was from degradation of the record, primarily because degradation reduced the number of intervals from which WMPI was estimated. The sampling designs were roughly equal in their ability to capture overall WMPI, regardless of fire regime, but the gridded design yielded more accurate estimates of spatial variation in WMPI. Accuracy in WMPI increased with increasing number of points sampled for all fire regimes and sampling designs, but the number of points needed to obtain accurate estimates was greater for fire regimes with complex spatial patterns of fire intervals than for those with relatively homogeneous patterns.

Using simulation to map fire regimes: an evaluation of approaches, strategies, and limitations

2003 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 309 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert E. Keane ◽  
Geoffrey J. Cary ◽  
Russell Parsons
Keyword(s):  
Geographical Information Systems ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Simulation Modelling ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Eastern Australia

Spatial depictions of fire regimes are indispensable to fire management because they portray important characteristics of wildland fire, such as severity, intensity, and pattern, across a landscape that serves as important reference for future treatment activities. However, spatially explicit fire regime maps are difficult and costly to create requiring extensive expertise in fire history sampling, multivariate statistics, remotely sensed image classification, fire behaviour and effects, fuel dynamics, landscape ecology, simulation modelling, and geographical information systems (GIS). This paper first compares three common strategies for predicting fire regimes (classification, empirical, and simulation) using a 51�000�ha landscape in the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness Area of Montana, USA. Simulation modelling is identified as the best overall strategy with respect to developing temporally deep spatial fire patterns, but it has limitations. To illustrate these problems, we performed three simulation experiments using the LANDSUM spatial model to determine the relative importance of (1) simulation time span; (2) fire frequency parameters; and (3) fire size parameters on the simulation of landscape fire return interval. The model used to simulate fire regimes is also very important, so we compared two spatially explicit landscape fire succession models (LANDSUM and FIRESCAPE) to demonstrate differences between model predictions and limitations of each on a neutral landscape. FIRESCAPE was developed for simulating fire regimes in eucalypt forests of south-eastern Australia. Finally, challenges for future simulation and fire regime research are presented including field data, scale, fire regime variability, map obsolescence, and classification resolution.

Fire regime shift linked to increased forest density in a piñon–juniper savanna landscape

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellis Q. Margolis
Keyword(s):  
Regime Shift ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Tree Density ◽  
High Severity ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
In Fire

Piñon–juniper (PJ) fire regimes are generally characterised as infrequent high-severity. However, PJ ecosystems vary across a large geographic and bio-climatic range and little is known about one of the principal PJ functional types, PJ savannas. It is logical that (1) grass in PJ savannas could support frequent, low-severity fire and (2) exclusion of frequent fire could explain increased tree density in PJ savannas. To assess these hypotheses I used dendroecological methods to reconstruct fire history and forest structure in a PJ-dominated savanna. Evidence of high-severity fire was not observed. From 112 fire-scarred trees I reconstructed 87 fire years (1547–1899). Mean fire interval was 7.8 years for fires recorded at ≥2 sites. Tree establishment was negatively correlated with fire frequency (r=–0.74) and peak PJ establishment was synchronous with dry (unfavourable) conditions and a regime shift (decline) in fire frequency in the late 1800s. The collapse of the grass-fuelled, frequent, surface fire regime in this PJ savanna was likely the primary driver of current high tree density (mean=881treesha–1) that is >600% of the historical estimate. Variability in bio-climatic conditions likely drive variability in fire regimes across the wide range of PJ ecosystems.

scholarly journals Resilience of the boreal forest in response to Holocene fire-frequency changes assessed by pollen diversity and population dynamics

2010 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 1026 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Carcaillet ◽  
Pierre J. H. Richard ◽  
Yves Bergeron ◽  
Bianca Fréchette ◽  
Adam A. Ali
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Boreal Forests ◽  
Frequency Control ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Frequency Changes ◽  
Fire Intervals ◽  
In Fire

The hypothesis that changes in fire frequency control the long-term dynamics of boreal forests is tested on the basis of paleodata. Sites with different wildfire histories at the regional scale should exhibit different vegetation trajectories. Mean fire intervals and vegetation reconstructions are based respectively on sedimentary charcoal and pollen from two small lakes, one in the Mixedwood boreal forests and the second in the Coniferous boreal forests. The pollen-inferred vegetation exhibits different trajectories of boreal forest dynamics after afforestation, whereas mean fire intervals have no significant or a delayed impact on the pollen data, either in terms of diversity or trajectories. These boreal forests appear resilient to changes in fire regimes, although subtle modifications can be highlighted. Vegetation compositions have converged during the last 1200 years with the decrease in mean fire intervals, owing to an increasing abundance of boreal species at the southern site (Mixedwood), whereas changes are less pronounced at the northern site (Coniferous). Although wildfire is a natural property of boreal ecosystems, this study does not support the hypothesis that changes in mean fire intervals are the key process controlling long-term vegetation transformation. Fluctuations in mean fire intervals alone do not explain the historical and current distribution of vegetation, but they may have accelerated the climatic process of borealisation, likely resulting from orbital forcing.

Mapping fire regime ecoregions in California

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (7) ◽  
pp. 595 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra D. Syphard ◽  
Jon E. Keeley
Keyword(s):  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Unsupervised Classification ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
The State ◽  
Reduction Strategies ◽  
Lower Variability ◽  
Fire Characteristics ◽  
In Fire

The fire regime is a central framing concept in wildfire science and ecology and describes how a range of wildfire characteristics vary geographically over time. Understanding and mapping fire regimes is important for guiding appropriate management and risk reduction strategies and for informing research on drivers of global change and altered fire patterns. Most efforts to spatially delineate fire regimes have been conducted by identifying natural groupings of fire parameters based on available historical fire data. This can result in classes with similar fire characteristics but wide differences in ecosystem types. We took a different approach and defined fire regime ecoregions for California to better align with ecosystem types, without using fire as part of the definition. We used an unsupervised classification algorithm to segregate the state into spatial clusters based on distinctive biophysical and anthropogenic attributes that drive fire regimes – and then used historical fire data to evaluate the ecoregions. The fire regime ecoregion map corresponded well with the major land cover types of the state and provided clear separation of historical patterns in fire frequency and size, with lower variability in fire severity. This methodology could be used for mapping fire regimes in other regions with limited historical fire data or forecasting future fire regimes based on expected changes in biophysical characteristics.

scholarly journals Frequent fires prime plant developmental responses to burning

2019 ◽  
Vol 286 (1909) ◽  
pp. 20191315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimberley J. Simpson ◽  
Jill K. Olofsson ◽  
Brad S. Ripley ◽  
Colin P. Osborne
Keyword(s):  
Developmental Plasticity ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Fire Exposure ◽  
Regime Changes ◽  
Below Ground ◽  
Developmental Responses ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Plastic Responses

Coping with temporal variation in fire requires plants to have plasticity in traits that promote persistence, but how plastic responses to current conditions are affected by past fire exposure remains unknown. We investigate phenotypic divergence between populations of four resprouting grasses exposed to differing experimental fire regimes (annually burnt or unburnt for greater than 35 years) and test whether divergence persists after plants are grown in a common environment for 1 year. Traits relating to flowering and biomass allocation were measured before plants were experimentally burnt, and their regrowth was tracked. Genetic differentiation between populations was investigated for a subset of individuals. Historic fire frequency influenced traits relating to flowering and below-ground investment. Previously burnt plants produced more inflorescences and invested proportionally more biomass below ground, suggesting a greater capacity for recruitment and resprouting than unburnt individuals. Tiller-scale regrowth rate did not differ between treatments, but prior fire exposure enhanced total regrown biomass in two species. We found no consistent genetic differences between populations suggesting trait differences arose from developmental plasticity. Grass development is influenced by prior fire exposure, independent of current environmental conditions. This priming response to fire, resulting in adaptive trait changes, may produce communities more resistant to future fire regime changes.

Comparing methods of reconstructing fire history using fire scars in a southwestern United States ponderosa pine forest

2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 855-867 ◽  
Author(s):  
Megan L Van Horne ◽  
Peter Z Fulé
Keyword(s):  
Pinus Ponderosa ◽  
Ponderosa Pine ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Sampling Methods ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Fire Scars ◽  
Fire Scar ◽  
Targeted Sampling ◽  
Fire Intervals

Fire scars have been used to understand the historical role of fire in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex P. & C. Laws.) ecosystems, but sampling methods and interpretation of results have been criticized for being statistically invalid and biased and for leading to exaggerated estimates of fire frequency. We compared "targeted" sampling, random sampling, and grid-based sampling to a census of all 1479 fire-scarred trees in a 1 km2 study site in northern Arizona. Of these trees, 1246 were sufficiently intact to collect cross-sections; of these, 648 had fire scars that could be cross-dated to the year of occurrence in the 200-year analysis period. Given a sufficient sample size (approximately n ≥ 50), we concluded that all tested sampling methods resulted in accurate estimates of the census fire frequency, with mean fire intervals within 1 year of the census mean. We also assessed three analytical techniques: (1) fire intervals from individual trees, (2) the interval between the tree origin and the first scar, and (3) proportional filtering. "Bracketing" fire regime statistics to account for purported uncertainty associated with targeted sampling was not useful. Quantifying differences in sampling approaches cannot resolve all the limitations of fire-scar methods, but does strengthen interpretation of these data.

scholarly journals Century-Scale Fire Dynamics in a Savanna Ecosystem

Fire ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leys ◽  
Griffin ◽  
Larson ◽  
McLauchlan
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Landscape Fragmentation ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Relative Role ◽  
Fire Dynamics ◽  
Fire Scars ◽  
Tree Ring Reconstruction ◽  
In Fire

(1) Background: Frequent fire, climate variability, and human activities collectively influence savanna ecosystems. The relative role of these three factors likely varies on interannual, decadal, and centennial timescales. Here, we tested if Euro-American activities uncoupled drought and fire frequencies relative to previous centuries in a temperate savanna site. (2) Methods: We combined records of fire frequency from tree ring fire scars and sediment charcoal abundance, and a record of fuel type based on charcoal particle morphometry to reconstruct centennial scale shifts in fire frequency and fuel sources in a savanna ecosystem. We also tested the climate influence on fire occurrence with an independently derived tree-ring reconstruction of drought. We contextualized these data with historical records of human activity. (3) Results: Tree fire scars revealed eight fire events from 1822–1924 CE, followed by localized suppression. Charcoal signals highlight 13 fire episodes from 1696–2001. Fire–climate coupling was not clearly evident both before and after Euro American settlement The dominant fuel source shifted from herbaceous to woody fuel during the early-mid 20th century. (4) Conclusions: Euro-American settlement and landscape fragmentation disrupted the pre-settlement fire regime (fire frequency and fuel sources). Our results highlight the potential for improved insight by synthesizing interpretation of multiple paleofire proxies, especially in fire regimes with mixed fuel sources.

Mixed-severity fire regimes: How well are they represented by existing fire-regime classification systems?

2013 ◽  
Vol 43 (7) ◽  
pp. 658-668 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hélène M. Marcoux ◽  
Sarah E. Gergel ◽  
Lori D. Daniels
Keyword(s):  
Field Data ◽  
Sustainable Forest Management ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Natural Disturbance ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Classification Systems ◽  
Fire Scars ◽  
Natural Fire ◽  
In Fire

Maps depicting historic fire regimes provide critical baselines for sustainable forest management and wildfire risk assessments. However, given our poor understanding of mixed-severity fire regimes, we asked if there may be considerable errors in fire-regime classification systems used to create landscape-level maps. We used dendrochronological field data (fire scars and tree establishment dates) from 20 randomly selected sites in southern British Columbia to evaluate two classification systems (Natural Disturbance Type (NDT) and Historical Natural Fire Regime (HNFR)) used by managers to map fire regimes. We found evidence of mixed-severity fires at 55% of sites. Each classification system made considerable and contrasting errors predicting mixed-severity regimes (relative to field data), and the discrepancies varied with elevation. The NDT system underrepresented low-to-moderate-severity fires at lower elevations, whereas the HNFR system overpredicted their occurrence at higher elevations. Errors are attributed to underlying assumptions about disturbances in the two classification systems, as well as limitations of the research methods used to estimate fire frequency in mixed-severity regimes (i.e., methods more relevant to high- versus low-severity regimes). Ecological heterogeneity created by mixed-severity regimes potentially influences decisions related to conservation, silviculture, wildfire, and fuel mitigation. Thus, understanding underlying assumptions and errors in mapping fire regimes is critical.

scholarly journals Distinguishing disturbance from perturbations in fire-prone ecosystems

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jon E. Keeley ◽  
Juli G. Pausas
Keyword(s):  
Fire Regime ◽  
Natural Disturbance ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Ecosystem Process ◽  
Type Conversion ◽  
Vegetation Shifts ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Historical Range

Fire is a necessary ecosystem process in many biomes and is best viewed as a natural disturbance that is beneficial to ecosystem functioning. However, increasingly, we are seeing human interference in fire regimes that alters the historical range of variability for most fire parameters and results in vegetation shifts. Such perturbations can affect all fire regime parameters. Here, we provide a brief overview of examples where anthropogenically driven changes in fire frequency, fire pattern, fuels consumed and fire intensity constitute perturbations that greatly disrupt natural disturbance cycles and put ecosystems on a different trajectory resulting in type conversion. These changes are not due to fire per se but rather anthropogenic perturbations in the natural disturbance regime.

Twentieth-century climate change, fire suppression, and forest production and decomposition in northwestern Minnesota

1990 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 219-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
James S. Clark
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Matter ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Forest Floor ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Fire Scar

Long-term fire, climate, and vegetation data were used together with simulation models to estimate the effects of 20th century climate change and fire suppression on fire regime and organic-matter accumulation in mixed-conifer stands of Itasca State Park, northwestern Minnesota. Spatial and temporal patterns of fire occurrence and forest composition over the last 150 years determined by stratigraphic charcoal, fire-scar, tree-ring, and pollen analyses in separate studies provide evidence for vegetation and fire relationships. Water balances constructed from temperature and precipitation data collected since 1840 were used to model fire probability and intensity of burn before fire suppression which began in 1910. Existing patterns of biomass accumulation in forest-floor, herb, shrub, and tree components were compared with fire history and topographic variability to provide a spatial perspective on fire effects. Simulation models used these relationships to estimate (i) how accumulation of organic matter had changed through the past under the different fire regimes that prevailed on different topographic aspects, (ii) the changes brought about by fire suppression in 1910, and (iii) the fire regimes and their effects that would have prevailed since fire suppression with the warm–dry climate of the 20th century. Humus, litter, shrubs, and herb cover were less abundant and more variable spatially and temporally before fire suppression. Spatial variability in forest-floor organic matter, which resulted from different fire frequencies in different vegetation and topographic settings before fire suppression, was largely gone by 1920 as a result of fire suppression. Had fire suppression not been instituted in 1910, fire frequency would have increased by 20–40% in the 20th century because of warmer and drier conditions. Forest-floor oganic matter would have been largely depleted by frequent and severe fires exposing mineral soils, particularly during the drought years of the 1930s. Herb biomass would have increased, shrubs would have been more variable, and tree seedling establishment would have been substantially altered. Time required for buildup of fuels limits the extent to which increased moisture deficits increase fire frequency.

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