Evaluating a model for predicting active crown fire rate of spread using wildfire observations

2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (11) ◽  
pp. 3015-3028 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin E Alexander ◽  
Miguel G Cruz
Keyword(s):  
Fire Management ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fire Research ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Crown Fire ◽  
Predictive Capacity ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Spread Model

We evaluated the predictive capacity of a rate of spread model for active crown fires (M.G. Cruz, M.E. Alexander, and R.H. Wakimoto. 2005. Can. J. For. Res. 35: 1626–1639) using a relatively large (n = 57) independent data set originating from wildfire observations undertaken in Canada and the United States. The assembled wildfire data were characterized by more severe burning conditions and fire behavior in terms of rate of spread and the degree of crowning activity than the data set used to parameterize the crown fire rate of spread model. The statistics used to evaluate model adequacy showed good fit and a level of uncertainty considered acceptable for a wide variety of fire management and fire research applications. The crown fire rate of spread model predicted 42% of the data with an error lower then ±25%. Mean absolute percent errors of 51% and 60% were obtained for Canadian and American wildfires, respectively. The characteristics of the data set did not allow us to determine where model performance was weaker and consequently identify its shortcomings and areas of future improvement. The level of uncertainty observed suggests that the model can be readily utilized in support of operational fire management decision making and for simulations in fire research studies.

Development and testing of models for predicting crown fire rate of spread in conifer forest stands

2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (7) ◽  
pp. 1626-1639 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel G Cruz ◽  
Martin E Alexander ◽  
Ronald H Wakimoto
Keyword(s):  
Bulk Density ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Crown Fire ◽  
Conifer Forest ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Spread Model ◽  
Canopy Bulk Density

The rate of spread of crown fires advancing over level to gently undulating terrain was modeled through nonlinear regression analysis based on an experimental data set pertaining primarily to boreal forest fuel types. The data set covered a significant spectrum of fuel complex and fire behavior characteristics. Crown fire rate of spread was modeled separately for fires spreading in active and passive crown fire regimes. The active crown fire rate of spread model encompassing the effects of 10-m open wind speed, estimated fine fuel moisture content, and canopy bulk density explained 61% of the variability in the data set. Passive crown fire spread was modeled through a correction factor based on a criterion for active crowning related to canopy bulk density. The models were evaluated against independent data sets originating from experimental fires. The active crown fire rate of spread model predicted 42% of the independent experimental crown fire data with an error lower then 25% and a mean absolute percent error of 26%. While the models have some shortcomings and areas in need of improvement, they can be readily utilized in support of fire management decision making and other fire research studies.

scholarly journals Towards enhanced risk management: planning, decision making and monitoring of US wildfire response

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (7) ◽  
pp. 551 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher J. Dunn ◽  
David E. Calkin ◽  
Matthew P. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
The United States ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Current Response ◽  
Ongoing Research ◽  
Response Strategies ◽  
Management Decision Making ◽  
Response Decisions

Wildfire’s economic, ecological and social impacts are on the rise, fostering the realisation that business-as-usual fire management in the United States is not sustainable. Current response strategies may be inefficient and contributing to unnecessary responder exposure to hazardous conditions, but significant knowledge gaps constrain clear and comprehensive descriptions of how changes in response strategies and tactics may improve outcomes. As such, we convened a special session at an international wildfire conference to synthesise ongoing research focused on obtaining a better understanding of wildfire response decisions and actions. This special issue provides a collection of research that builds on those discussions. Four papers focus on strategic planning and decision making, three papers on use and effectiveness of suppression resources and two papers on allocation and movement of suppression resources. Here we summarise some of the key findings from these papers in the context of risk-informed decision making. This collection illustrates the value of a risk management framework for improving wildfire response safety and effectiveness, for enhancing fire management decision making and for ushering in a new fire management paradigm.

scholarly journals Development of a semi-parametric PAR (Photosynthetically Active Radiation) partitioning model for the United States, version 1.0

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 2477-2484 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. C. Kathilankal ◽  
T. L. O'Halloran ◽  
A. Schmidt ◽  
C. V. Hanson ◽  
B. E. Law
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Elevation Angle ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Diffuse Radiation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Polynomial Model ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Cubic Polynomial ◽  
Solar Elevation Angle

Abstract. A semi-parametric PAR diffuse radiation model was developed using commonly measured climatic variables from 108 site-years of data from 17 AmeriFlux sites. The model has a logistic form and improves upon previous efforts using a larger data set and physically viable climate variables as predictors, including relative humidity, clearness index, surface albedo and solar elevation angle. Model performance was evaluated by comparison with a simple cubic polynomial model developed for the PAR spectral range. The logistic model outperformed the polynomial model with an improved coefficient of determination and slope relative to measured data (logistic: R2 = 0.76; slope = 0.76; cubic: R2 = 0.73; slope = 0.72), making this the most robust PAR-partitioning model for the United States currently available.

scholarly journals Development of a large-sample watershed-scale hydrometeorological data set for the contiguous USA: data set characteristics and assessment of regional variability in hydrologic model performance

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 209-223 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. J. Newman ◽  
M. P. Clark ◽  
K. Sampson ◽  
A. Wood ◽  
L. E. Hay ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Reference Level ◽  
Hydrologic Response ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract. We present a community data set of daily forcing and hydrologic response data for 671 small- to medium-sized basins across the contiguous United States (median basin size of 336 km2) that spans a very wide range of hydroclimatic conditions. Area-averaged forcing data for the period 1980–2010 was generated for three basin spatial configurations – basin mean, hydrologic response units (HRUs) and elevation bands – by mapping daily, gridded meteorological data sets to the subbasin (Daymet) and basin polygons (Daymet, Maurer and NLDAS). Daily streamflow data was compiled from the United States Geological Survey National Water Information System. The focus of this paper is to (1) present the data set for community use and (2) provide a model performance benchmark using the coupled Snow-17 snow model and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model, calibrated using the shuffled complex evolution global optimization routine. After optimization minimizing daily root mean squared error, 90% of the basins have Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency scores ≥0.55 for the calibration period and 34% ≥ 0.8. This benchmark provides a reference level of hydrologic model performance for a commonly used model and calibration system, and highlights some regional variations in model performance. For example, basins with a more pronounced seasonal cycle generally have a negative low flow bias, while basins with a smaller seasonal cycle have a positive low flow bias. Finally, we find that data points with extreme error (defined as individual days with a high fraction of total error) are more common in arid basins with limited snow and, for a given aridity, fewer extreme error days are present as the basin snow water equivalent increases.

Corrigendum to: Assessing canopy fuel stratum characteristics in crown fire prone fuel types of western North America

2010 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. iii ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel G. Cruz ◽  
Martin E. Alexander ◽  
Ronald H. Wakimoto
Keyword(s):  
Ponderosa Pine ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Stand Density ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Tree Level ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Crown Fire ◽  
In Fire

Application of crown fire behavior models in fire management decision-making have been limited by the difficulty of quantitatively describing fuel complexes, specifically characteristics of the canopy fuel stratum. To estimate canopy fuel stratum characteristics of four broad fuel types found in the western United States and adjacent areas of Canada, namely Douglas-fir, ponderosa pine, mixed conifer, and lodgepole pine forest stands, data from the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database were analysed and linked with tree-level foliage dry weight equations. Models to predict canopy base height (CBH), canopy fuel load (CFL) and canopy bulk density (CBD) were developed through linear regression analysis and using common stand descriptors (e.g. stand density, basal area, stand height) as explanatory variables. The models developed were fuel type specific and coefficients of determination ranged from 0.90 to 0.95 for CFL, between 0.84 and 0.92 for CBD and from 0.64 to 0.88 for CBH. Although not formally evaluated, the models seem to give a reasonable characterization of the canopy fuel stratum for use in fire management applications.

scholarly journals Assessing canopy fuel stratum characteristics in crown fire prone fuel types of western North America

2003 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel G. Cruz ◽  
Martin E. Alexander ◽  
Ronald H. Wakimoto
Keyword(s):  
Ponderosa Pine ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Stand Density ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Tree Level ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Crown Fire ◽  
In Fire

Application of crown fire behavior models in fire management decision-making have been limited by the difficulty of quantitatively describing fuel complexes, specifically characteristics of the canopy fuel stratum. To estimate canopy fuel stratum characteristics of four broad fuel types found in the western United States and adjacent areas of Canada, namely Douglas-fir, ponderosa pine, mixed conifer, and lodgepole pine forest stands, data from the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database were analysed and linked with tree-level foliage dry weight equations. Models to predict canopy base height (CBH), canopy fuel load (CFL) and canopy bulk density (CBD) were developed through linear regression analysis and using common stand descriptors (e.g. stand density, basal area, stand height) as explanatory variables. The models developed were fuel type specific and coefficients of determination ranged from 0.90 to 0.95 for CFL, between 0.84 and 0.92 for CBD and from 0.64 to 0.88 for CBH. Although not formally evaluated, the models seem to give a reasonable characterization of the canopy fuel stratum for use in fire management applications.

A Review of Initial Attack Fire Crew Productivity and Effectiveness

1996 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 199 ◽  
Author(s):  
KG Hirsch ◽  
DL Martell
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Initial Attack ◽  
Forest Fire Management ◽  
Rules Of Thumb ◽  
Computer Based ◽  
Management Decision Support

Information regarding the productivity and effectiveness of initial attack fire crews is essential to a wide variety of forest fire management activities. This paper provides a selective review of crew productivity research conducted in Australia, Canada, and the United States and a cursory overview of how such information is used in computer-based fire management decision support systems. A description of several widely used rules-of-thumb that relate suppression effectiveness to fire intensity is presented as well as our understanding of how these guidelines may have evolved. This is followed by an example of some of the difficulties associated with transferring productivity and effectiveness information between fire management organizations and fire environments. The paper concludes with a discussion of strategies for investigating initial attack crew performance.

State Medical Boards' Perceptions of a Minimum Data Set and Current Practices for Collecting Physician Information

2013 ◽  
Vol 99 (4) ◽  
pp. 40-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron Young ◽  
Philip Davignon ◽  
Margaret B. Hansen ◽  
Mark A. Eggen
Keyword(s):  
Media Coverage ◽  
The United States ◽  
Minimum Data Set ◽  
Direct Patient Care ◽  
Physician Workforce ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Minimum Data ◽  
State Medical Boards ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Current Practices

ABSTRACT Recent media coverage has focused on the supply of physicians in the United States, especially with the impact of a growing physician shortage and the Affordable Care Act. State medical boards and other entities maintain data on physician licensure and discipline, as well as some biographical data describing their physician populations. However, there are gaps of workforce information in these sources. The Federation of State Medical Boards' (FSMB) Census of Licensed Physicians and the AMA Masterfile, for example, offer valuable information, but they provide a limited picture of the physician workforce. Furthermore, they are unable to shed light on some of the nuances in physician availability, such as how much time physicians spend providing direct patient care. In response to these gaps, policymakers and regulators have in recent years discussed the creation of a physician minimum data set (MDS), which would be gathered periodically and would provide key physician workforce information. While proponents of an MDS believe it would provide benefits to a variety of stakeholders, an effort has not been attempted to determine whether state medical boards think it is important to collect physician workforce data and if they currently collect workforce information from licensed physicians. To learn more, the FSMB sent surveys to the executive directors at state medical boards to determine their perceptions of collecting workforce data and current practices regarding their collection of such data. The purpose of this article is to convey results from this effort. Survey findings indicate that the vast majority of boards view physician workforce information as valuable in the determination of health care needs within their state, and that various boards are already collecting some data elements. Analysis of the data confirms the potential benefits of a physician minimum data set (MDS) and why state medical boards are in a unique position to collect MDS information from physicians.

Legislative Diversity and the Rise of Women Lobbyists

2021 ◽  
pp. 106591292110093
Author(s):  
James M. Strickland ◽  
Katelyn E. Stauffer
Keyword(s):  
Gender Diversity ◽  
Personal Characteristics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Revolving Door ◽  
Women And Politics ◽  
Political Equality ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Women Legislators ◽  
Organized Interests ◽  
American States

Despite a growing body of literature examining the consequences of women’s inclusion among lobbyists, our understanding of the factors that lead to women’s initial emergence in the profession is limited. In this study, we propose that gender diversity among legislative targets incentivizes organized interests to hire women lobbyists, and thus helps to explain when and how women emerge as lobbyists. Using a comprehensive data set of registered lobbyist–client pairings from all American states in 1989 and 2011, we find that legislative diversity influences not only the number of lobby contracts held by women but also the number of former women legislators who become revolving-door lobbyists. This second finding further supports the argument that interests capitalize on the personal characteristics of lobbyists, specifically by hiring women to work in more diverse legislatures. Our findings have implications for women and politics, lobbying, and voice and political equality in the United States.

scholarly journals Actors, Partisan Inclination, and Emotions: An Analysis of Government Shutdown News Stories Shared on Twitter

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 205630512110088
Author(s):  
Colin Agur ◽  
Lanhuizi Gan
Keyword(s):  
Emotional Responses ◽  
The United States ◽  
Online Information ◽  
News Frames ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Political Issues ◽  
News Stories ◽  
News Sharing ◽  
Government Shutdown

Scholars have recognized emotion as an increasingly important element in the reception and retransmission of online information. In the United States, because of existing differences in ideology, among both audiences and producers of news stories, political issues are prone to spark considerable emotional responses online. While much research has explored emotional responses during election campaigns, this study focuses on the role of online emotion in social media posts related to day-to-day governance in between election periods. Specifically, this study takes the 2018–2019 government shutdown as its subject of investigation. The data set shows the prominence of journalistic and political figures in leading the discussion of news stories, the nuance of emotions employed in the news frames, and the choice of pro-attitudinal news sharing.

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