Landscape-scale spatial distribution of spruce budworm defoliation in relation to bioclimatic conditions

2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (9) ◽  
pp. 2218-2232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Noël Candau ◽  
Richard A Fleming
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Classification Tree ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
Forest Composition ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Tree Model ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Defoliation Frequency ◽  
Bioclimatic Conditions

Two empirical statistical models were developed to describe the spatial variation in defoliation by spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.), as recorded by Ontario's Forest Health Survey from 1967 to 1998. These models revealed a number of relationships between the spatial distributions of aerially detectable spruce budworm defoliation and bioclimatic conditions over the landscape. A classification tree model relates the northern and southern boundaries of defoliation to the relative abundance of different tree species that host spruce budworm. Between these boundaries, the classification tree uses the maximum winter temperature and the minimum temperature in May to describe where detectable defoliation occurred. A regression tree model uses a total of eight variables related to winter temperatures, forest composition, spring temperatures, summer temperatures, and precipitation to estimate the defoliation frequency in areas where defoliation was detected at least once from 1967 to 1998. High defoliation frequencies were associated with dry Junes (precipitation, <86 mm) and cool springs (mean minimum temperature < –2.7 °C). Conversely, low frequencies were associated with cold winters (mean minimum temperature < –23.3 °C; mean maximum temperature > –11.0 °C) in the north and a low abundance of host species (percentage of the basal area occupied by balsam fir, white spruce, and black spruce, <14.3%) in the south. Spatial autocorrelation in the bioclimatic variables had little effect on their relationships with the spatial distribution of the defoliation frequency.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal analysis of rabies in cattle in central Mexico

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Bárcenas-Reyes ◽  
Diana Paulina Nieves-Martínez ◽  
José Quintín Cuador-Gil ◽  
Elizabeth Loza-Rubio ◽  
Sara González-Ruíz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Spatial Epidemiology ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analysis ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Spatial Continuity ◽  
Simple Kriging ◽  
Annual Minimum Temperature

Spatial epidemiology of bat-transmitted rabies in cattle has been limited to spatial distribution of cases, an approach that does not identify hidden patterns and the spread resulting in outbreaks in endemic and susceptible areas. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between the three variables average annual maximum, annual minimum temperature and precipitation in the region on the one hand, and the spatial distribution of cases on the other, using geographic information systems and co-Kriging considering that these environmental variables condition the existence of the rabies vector Desmodus rotundus. A stationary behaviour between the primary and the secondary variables was verified by basic statistics and moving window statistics. The directions of greater and lesser spatial continuity were determined by experimental cross-semivariograms. It was found that the highest risk for bovine paralytic rabies occurs in areas known as La Huasteca Potosina and La Sierra Gorda that are characterized by a maximum temperature of 29.5 °C, a minimum temperature of 16.5 °C and precipitation of 1200 mm. A risk estimation map was obtained for the presence of rabies with a determination coefficient greater than 95%, and a correlation coefficient greater than 0.95. Our conclusion is that ordinary co- Kriging provides a better estimation of risk and spatial distribution of rabies than simple Kriging, making this the method recommended for risk estimation and regional distribution of rabies.

First Velarifictorus (Orthoptera: Gryllidae, Gryllinae) cricket described from Borneo (Southeast Asia) and notes on a co-occurring congener

Zootaxa ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 4282 (2) ◽  
pp. 374 ◽  
Author(s):  
MING KAI TAN ◽  
SIGFRID INGRISCH ◽  
RODZAY BIN HAJI ABDUL WAHAB
Keyword(s):  
New Species ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Locality Record ◽  
Widespread Species ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Maxent Modelling ◽  
A New Species

Based on newly collected specimens from Brunei, a new species of Velarifictorus Randell, 1964 is described: Velarifictorus temburongensis sp. nov. This represents the first species of the genus Velarifictorus to be described from Borneo. Unexpectedly, the more widespread species Velarifictorus aspersus aspersus (Walker, 1869) was found together with the new species in the same locality, representing a new locality record for V. aspersus in Brunei. We used MaxEnt modelling to test if it was likely that this species occurs in Ulu Temburong and Borneo based on a set of bioclimatic predictors. While MaxEnt modelling showed that V. aspersus can occur in Borneo, it did not convincingly predict its occurrence in Ulu Temburong where it was found. Based on the model, maximum temperature of warmest month, minimum temperature of coldest month and annual precipitation are important bioclimatic variables to predict the distribution. 

Detecting climate change in Ukraine: trends, prediction and extreme events

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Bohushenko ◽  
Sergiy Stepanenko ◽  
Inna Khomenko
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Minimum Value ◽  
Maximum Value ◽  
Temperature Indices ◽  
Consecutive Dry Days

&lt;p&gt;In this study the trends and variations in 25 extreme temperature and precipitation indices&lt;br&gt;defined by ETCCDI, are examined using trend method, probability distribution analysis and&lt;br&gt;spatial statistics for periods of 71 to 137 years for 16 stations evenly distributed in Ukraine. Data&lt;br&gt;on the indices were obtained from www.ecad.eu.&lt;br&gt;Since 1981, temperature has increased by about 1&amp;#186;C in all stations in question relative to the&lt;br&gt;period of 1945-1980. Analysis of the temperature indices indicates that during the 20th and the&lt;br&gt;beginning of the 21th century there is significant warming which is particularly pronounced in&lt;br&gt;annual mean and annual maximum temperatures. Occurrence of more summer days, warm days&lt;br&gt;and tropical nights and warm spell duration reached the record highest level, and conversely&lt;br&gt;occurrence of frost and ice days, cold days and cold spell duration fall to a record low for the last&lt;br&gt;three decades in the most of study territory.&lt;br&gt;Since 1981, precipitation amount has grown by 30-50 mm relative to the period of 1945-1980 for&lt;br&gt;the most of Ukrainian territory, except Uzhhorod and Uman where precipitation amount has&lt;br&gt;remained the same. For Ukraine average, an increase in maximum daily and maximum 5 days&lt;br&gt;precipitation amount, the maximum number of consecutive wet days, heavy and very heavy&lt;br&gt;precipitation days, and a decrease in the maximum number of consecutive dry days are observed&lt;br&gt;for the last three decades.&lt;br&gt;The analysis of the spatial distribution of trend of precipitation and temperature indices showed&lt;br&gt;that there are large differences between regions of Ukraine, and coherence of spatial distribution&lt;br&gt;of trends of various indices is low.&lt;br&gt;Spectral analysis and harmonic regression techniques were used to derive simulated and&lt;br&gt;predicted (2019-2050) values of annual precipitation and annual mean temperature and four&lt;br&gt;indices such as maximum value of daily maximum temperature, minimum value of daily&lt;br&gt;minimum temperature, the highest 1-day precipitation amount and maximum number of&lt;br&gt;consecutive dry days for some stations such as Kerch (the Crimean Peninsula), Kyiv (situated in&lt;br&gt;north-central Ukraine along the Dnieper River), Lubny (Dnieper Lowland), Lviv and Shepetivka&lt;br&gt;(Podillia Upland), Uzhhorod (Transcarpathia), Uman (Dnieper Upland).&lt;br&gt;Annual mean temperature and maximum value of daily maximum temperature were predicted to&lt;br&gt;increase by 0.33&amp;#176;C per decade in the period of 2019-2050 with respect to 1981-2018, while&lt;br&gt;minimum value of daily minimum temperature was predicted to grow slightly faster (by 0.43-&lt;br&gt;0.63&amp;#186;C per decade).&lt;br&gt;Precipitation was predicted to increase for the stations in question by 20-66 mm up to 2050&lt;br&gt;relative to 1981-2018 and conversely maximum number of consecutive dry days will slightly&lt;br&gt;decline except Lubny where increase in an aridity index was predicted. In the next three decades&lt;br&gt;changes in maximum daily precipitation will be various: in Shepetivka and Kyiv such&lt;br&gt;precipitation will be decreased and in other stations increasement in such precipitation will be up&lt;br&gt;to 6 mm till 2050 with respect to 1981-2018.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals The Association between the Mapping Distribution of Melioidosis Incidences and Meteorological Factors in an Endemic Area: Ubon Ratchathani, Thailand (2009–2018)

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaruwan Wongbutdee ◽  
◽  
Wacharapong Saengnill ◽  
Jutharat Jittimanee ◽  
Pawana Panomket ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Interpolation Method ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Kriging Interpolation ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Kriging Interpolation Method ◽  
Average Rainfall

Abstract Melioidosis is a public health problem in the tropical regions, occurring to meteorological variability. For 10 years of melioidosis outbreaks, we create probability maps of melioidosis distribution during 2009–2018 and determine the association with meteorological factors. The monthly average rainfall and incidence of melioidosis were high from July to September but they not significantly associated (P = 0.576). However, the monthly maximum and minimum temperature were significantly associated with melioidosis incidence (P = 0.002 and P = 0.029, respectively). We estimated the spatial distribution of rainfall and maximum and minimum temperature using the Co-Kriging interpolation method which found that the spatial distribution of the melioidosis incidence was significantly associated with rainfall in 2009, 2010, and 2015; with the maximum temperature in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, and 2015; and with the minimum temperature in 2010, 2011, and 2015. Our finding approach may support information and classify a pattern for melioidosis distribution. Keywords: Incidence, Melioidosis, Meteorological factors

Forecasting the response of spruce budworm defoliation to climate change in Ontario

2011 ◽  
Vol 41 (10) ◽  
pp. 1948-1960 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Noël Candau ◽  
Richard A. Fleming
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Picea Glauca ◽  
Choristoneura Fumiferana ◽  
Abies Balsamea ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Southern Limit ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Summer Minimum

Predicting the effect of climate change on insect populations is critical to improve the reliability of forest management plans, wood supply projections, and pest protection programs. In this study, we use an empirical model to relate the spatial distribution of past defoliation by spruce budworm ( Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) in Ontario to bioclimatic variables. We then apply data from six climate change scenarios to this model to project potential changes in the distribution of defoliation for 2011–2040. The spatial distribution of historical defoliation was found to be related to winter maximum and minimum temperatures, forest content in balsam fir ( Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) and white spruce ( Picea glauca (Moench) Voss), and spring and summer minimum temperatures. All six climate change scenarios project broadly similar changes in the spatial patterns of defoliation: (i) an extension of the northern limit of defoliation as far as available data go or close to it, (ii) a decrease in the frequency of defoliation in the center of the historical defoliation belt, and (iii) a persistence of the southern limit of defoliation. This leads to a projected increase of the total area defoliated of between 22.8% and 25.5%, while the mean frequency of defoliation, calculated over the whole study area, would slightly increase (+1%) or decrease (–17.7% to –2.9%).

scholarly journals Predicting Spatial Distribution of Argilic Horizon Using Auxilary Information in Regional Scale

2005 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 48-53
Author(s):  
Yiyi Sulaeman ◽  
D Djaenudin
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Igneous Rock ◽  
Sedimentary Rock ◽  
Classification Tree ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Auxiliary Information ◽  
Soil Survey ◽  
Tree Model ◽  
Classification Tree Model ◽  
Argillic Horizon

For supporting better soil management, the spatial distribution of soils having argilic hori=on (argilic soils) must berecognized and it can be delineate in soil survey mapping activity, but this activity consumes much time and money. This study aimed to build a decision tree model for predicting the spatial distribution of argillic hori=on based on auxiliary information using 3 predicting environmental variables; namely, geomorphic sUrface or substrate, landsurjace unit, and ecoregion beh.Three-based modeling technique was used to generate classification tree model from 318 pedon of Lampung Province,Indonesia. Argillic horizon is predicted to present in hot belt (elevation of 0-200 m above sea level) on interfluve-seepageslope with probability 84% for acid igneous rock, 83% for basic igneous rock, and 90% for acid sedimentary rock. Argillichorizon is also predicted to present in hot belt on transportational midslope with the probability 65% for transported acid sedimentary rock. Argillic horizon is predicted absent with the probability to occur ranging from 0% to 32% on otlrer combinations of landsurface unit, ecoregion belt, and substrate.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Evolution of Fractional Vegetation Cover and Its Response to Climate Change Based on MODIS Data in the Subtropical Region of China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 913
Author(s):  
Hua Liu ◽  
Xuejian Li ◽  
Fangjie Mao ◽  
Meng Zhang ◽  
Di’en Zhu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vegetation Cover ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Spatiotemporal Pattern ◽  
Climate Factors ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
Fractional Vegetation Cover ◽  
Annual Minimum Temperature ◽  
Total Study Area

The subtropical vegetation plays an important role in maintaining the structure and function of global ecosystems, and its contribution to the global carbon balance are receiving increasing attention. The fractional vegetation cover (FVC) as an important indicator for monitoring environment change, is widely used to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of regional and even global vegetation. China is an important distribution area of subtropical vegetation. Therefore, we first used the dimidiate pixel model to extract the subtropical FVC of China during 2001–2018 based on MODIS land surface reflectance data, and then used the linear regression analysis and the variation coefficient to explore its spatiotemporal variations characteristics. Finally, the partial correlation analysis and the partial derivative model were used to analyze the influences and contributions of climate factors on FVC, respectively. The results showed that (1) the subtropical FVC had obvious spatiotemporal heterogeneity; the FVC high-coverage and medium-coverage zones were concentratedly and their combined area accounted for more than 70% of the total study area. (2) The interannual variation in the average subtropical FVC from 2001 to 2018 showed a significant growth trend. (3) In 76.28% of the study area, the regional FVC showed an increasing trend, and the remaining regional FVC showed a decreasing trend. However, the overall fluctuations in the FVC (increasing or decreasing) in the region were relatively stable. (4) The influences of climate factors to the FVC exhibited obvious spatial differences. More than half of all pixels exhibited the influence of the average annual minimum temperature and the annual precipitation had positive on FVC, while the average annual maximum temperature had negative on FVC. (5) The contributions of climate changes to FVC had obvious heterogeneity, and the average annual minimum temperature was the main contribution factor affecting the dynamic variations of FVC.

scholarly journals Strong controls of daily minimum temperature on the autumn photosynthetic phenology of subtropical vegetation in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peixin Ren ◽  
Zelin Liu ◽  
Xiaolu Zhou ◽  
Changhui Peng ◽  
Jingfeng Xiao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Evergreen Forest ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Cumulative Precipitation

Abstract Background Vegetation phenology research has largely focused on temperate deciduous forests, thus limiting our understanding of the response of evergreen vegetation to climate change in tropical and subtropical regions. Results Using satellite solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data, we applied two methods to evaluate temporal and spatial patterns of the end of the growing season (EGS) in subtropical vegetation in China, and analyze the dependence of EGS on preseason maximum and minimum temperatures as well as cumulative precipitation. Our results indicated that the averaged EGS derived from the SIF and EVI based on the two methods (dynamic threshold method and derivative method) was later than that derived from gross primary productivity (GPP) based on the eddy covariance technique, and the time-lag for EGSsif and EGSevi was approximately 2 weeks and 4 weeks, respectively. We found that EGS was positively correlated with preseason minimum temperature and cumulative precipitation (accounting for more than 73% and 62% of the study areas, respectively), but negatively correlated with preseason maximum temperature (accounting for more than 59% of the study areas). In addition, EGS was more sensitive to the changes in the preseason minimum temperature than to other climatic factors, and an increase in the preseason minimum temperature significantly delayed the EGS in evergreen forests, shrub and grassland. Conclusions Our results indicated that the SIF outperformed traditional vegetation indices in capturing the autumn photosynthetic phenology of evergreen forest in the subtropical region of China. We found that minimum temperature plays a significant role in determining autumn photosynthetic phenology in the study region. These findings contribute to improving our understanding of the response of the EGS to climate change in subtropical vegetation of China, and provide a new perspective for accurately evaluating the role played by evergreen vegetation in the regional carbon budget.

scholarly journals The effect of average temperature on suicide rates in five urban California counties, 1999–⁠2019: an ecological time series analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sierra Cheng ◽  
Rebecca Plouffe ◽  
Stephanie M. Nanos ◽  
Mavra Qamar ◽  
David N. Fisman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Suicide Rate ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
The United States ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
Average Maximum

Abstract Background Suicide is among the top 10 leading causes of premature morality in the United States and its rates continue to increase. Thus, its prevention has become a salient public health responsibility. Risk factors of suicide transcend the individual and societal level as risk can increase based on climatic variables. The purpose of the present study is to evaluate the association between average temperature and suicide rates in the five most populous counties in California using mortality data from 1999 to 2019. Methods Monthly counts of death by suicide for the five counties of interest were obtained from CDC WONDER. Monthly average, maximum, and minimum temperature were obtained from nCLIMDIV for the same time period. We modelled the association of each temperature variable with suicide rate using negative binomial generalized additive models accounting for the county-specific annual trend and monthly seasonality. Results There were over 38,000 deaths by suicide in California’s five most populous counties between 1999 and 2019. An increase in average temperature of 1 °C corresponded to a 0.82% increase in suicide rate (IRR = 1.0082 per °C; 95% CI = 1.0025–1.0140). Estimated coefficients for maximum temperature (IRR = 1.0069 per °C; 95% CI = 1.0021–1.0117) and minimum temperature (IRR = 1.0088 per °C; 95% CI = 1.0023–1.0153) were similar. Conclusion This study adds to a growing body of evidence supporting a causal effect of elevated temperature on suicide. Further investigation into environmental causes of suicide, as well as the biological and societal contexts mediating these relationships, is critical for the development and implementation of new public health interventions to reduce the incidence of suicide, particularly in the face increasing temperatures due to climate change.

scholarly journals Effects of Cropland Expansion on Temperature Extremes in Western India from 1982 to 2015

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 489
Author(s):  
Jinxiu Liu ◽  
Weihao Shen ◽  
Yaqian He
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Heat Flux ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Western India

India has experienced extensive land cover and land use change (LCLUC). However, there is still limited empirical research regarding the impact of LCLUC on climate extremes in India. Here, we applied statistical methods to assess how cropland expansion has influenced temperature extremes in India from 1982 to 2015 using a new land cover and land use dataset and ECMWF Reanalysis V5 (ERA5) climate data. Our results show that during the last 34 years, croplands in western India increased by ~33.7 percentage points. This cropland expansion shows a significantly negative impact on the maxima of daily maximum temperature (TXx), while its impacts on the maxima of daily minimum temperature and the minima of daily maximum and minimum temperature are limited. It is estimated that if cropland expansion had not taken place in western India over the 1982 to 2015 period, TXx would likely have increased by 0.74 (±0.64) °C. The negative impact of croplands on reducing the TXx extreme is likely due to evaporative cooling from intensified evapotranspiration associated with croplands, resulting in increased latent heat flux and decreased sensible heat flux. This study underscores the important influences of cropland expansion on temperature extremes and can be applicable to other geographic regions experiencing LCLUC.

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