Distribution of cavity trees in midwestern old-growth and second-growth forests

We used classification and regression tree analysis to determine the primary variables associated with the occurrence of cavity trees and the hierarchical structure among those variables. We applied that information to develop logistic models predicting cavity tree probability as a function of diameter, species group, and decay class. Inventories of cavity abundance in old-growth hardwood forests in Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana found that 8–11% of snags had at least one visible cavity (as visually detected from the ground; smallest opening [Formula: see text]2 cm diameter), about twice the percentage for live trees. Five percent of live trees and snags had cavities on mature ([Formula: see text]110 years) second-growth plots on timberland in Missouri. Because snags accounted for typically no more than 10% of standing trees on any of these sites, 80–85% of cavity trees are living trees. Within the subset of mature and old-growth forests, the presence of cavities was strongly related to tree diameter. Classification and regression tree models indicated that 30 cm diameter at breast height (DBH) was a threshold size useful in distinguishing cavity trees from noncavity trees in the old-growth sample. There were two diameter thresholds in the mature second-growth sample: 18 and 44 cm DBH. Cavity tree probability differed by species group and increased with increasing decay class.