Seismic liquefaction probability for Canadian offshore regions

1985 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 920-926
Author(s):  
Gail M. Atkinson
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Beaufort Sea ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Seismic Hazards ◽  
Soil Stability ◽  
Potential Hazard ◽  
Probability Level ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Seismic Liquefaction ◽  
Offshore Ground Motion

Seismically induced liquefaction is a potential hazard to petroleum developments in Canadian offshore regions. This paper addresses the hazard to eastern Canada's continental margin and the Beaufort Sea. To indicate the probability of seismically induced liquefaction, maps have been produced that contour the minimum value of soil resistant (N1) required in order that the probability be less than 0.001/a. Expected acceleration levels for this probability level are also provided. For many areas, liquefaction is a greater hazard to offshore structures than that directly attributable to vibratory ground shaking. Key words: seismic hazards, liquefaction, offshore structures, Beaufort Sea, continental shelf, probability, Canadian offshore, ground motion, soil stability.

High-frequency ground-motion variability for rough-fault ruptures  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jagdish Chandra Vyas ◽  
Martin Galis ◽  
Paul Martin Mai
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Earthquake Ground Motion ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Dynamic Rupture ◽  
Roughness Effects ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Fault Surface ◽  
Fault Roughness ◽  
Ground Motion Variability

<p>Geological observations show variations in fault-surface topography not only at large scale (segmentation) but also at small scale (roughness). These geometrical complexities strongly affect the stress distribution and frictional strength of the fault, and therefore control the earthquake rupture process and resulting ground-shaking. Previous studies examined fault-segmentation effects on ground-shaking, but our understanding of fault-roughness effects on seismic wavefield radiation and earthquake ground-motion is still limited.  </p><p>In this study we examine the effects of fault roughness on ground-shaking variability as a function of distance based on 3D dynamic rupture simulations. We consider linear slip-weakening friction, variations of fault-roughness parametrizations, and alternative nucleation positions (unilateral and bilateral ruptures). We use generalized finite difference method to compute synthetic waveforms (max. resolved frequency 5.75 Hz) at numerous surface sites  to carry out statistical analysis.  </p><p>Our simulations reveal that ground-motion variability from unilateral ruptures is almost independent of  distance from the fault, with comparable or higher values than estimates from ground-motion prediction equations (e.g., Boore and Atkinson, 2008; Campbell and Bozornia, 2008). However, ground-motion variability from bilateral ruptures decreases with increasing distance, in contrast to previous studies (e.g., Imtiaz et. al., 2015) who observe an increasing trend with distance. Ground-shaking variability from unilateral ruptures is higher than for bilateral ruptures, a feature due to intricate seismic radiation patterns related to fault roughness and hypocenter location. Moreover, ground-shaking variability for rougher faults is lower than for smoother faults. As fault roughness increases the difference in ground-shaking variabilities between unilateral and bilateral ruptures increases. In summary, our simulations help develop a fundamental understanding of ground-motion variability at high frequencies (~ 6 Hz) due small-scale geometrical fault-surface variations.</p>

A Novel Bio Inspired Algorithm Based on Echolocation Mechanism of Bats for Seismic States Prediction

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed Elhadi Rahmani ◽  
Abdelmalek Amine ◽  
Reda Mohamed Hamou
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Geographic Area ◽  
Seismic Hazards ◽  
Data Discovery ◽  
Distance Calculation ◽  
Hard Problems ◽  
Recorded Data ◽  
Np Problems

Bio-inspired algorithms are sort of implementation of natural solutions to solve hard problems – so called NP problems. A seismic hazard is the probability that an earthquake will occur in a given geographic area, within a given window of time, and with ground motion intensity exceeding a given threshold. Seismic hazards prediction is one of the fields where data mining plays an important role. This paper presents a new bio-inspired algorithm motivated by the echolocation behavior of bats for seismic hazard states prediction in coal mines based on previously recorded data. It is a distance calculation based approach, Results were very satisfactory in a manner that encourage us to continue working on this approach. The implementation of the algorithm touches three fields of studies, data discovery or so called data mining, bio inspired techniques, and seismic hazards predictions.

scholarly journals Earthquakes on the surface: earthquake location and area based on more than 14 500 ShakeMaps

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 1665-1679
Author(s):  
Stephanie Lackner
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Strong Ground Motion ◽  
Earthquake Location ◽  
Primary Concern ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Geographic Context ◽  
The Social ◽  
Strong Ground

Abstract. Earthquake impact is an inherently interdisciplinary topic that receives attention from many disciplines. The natural hazard of strong ground motion is the reason why earthquakes are of interest to more than just seismologists. However, earthquake shaking data often receive too little attention by the general public and impact research in the social sciences. The vocabulary used to discuss earthquakes has mostly evolved within and for the discipline of seismology. Discussions on earthquakes outside of seismology thus often use suboptimal concepts that are not of primary concern. This study provides new theoretic concepts as well as novel quantitative data analysis based on shaking data. A dataset of relevant global earthquake ground shaking from 1960 to 2016 based on USGS ShakeMap data has been constructed and applied to the determination of past ground shaking worldwide. Two new definitions of earthquake location (the shaking center and the shaking centroid) based on ground motion parameters are introduced and compared to the epicenter. These definitions are intended to facilitate a translation of the concept of earthquake location from a seismology context to a geographic context. Furthermore, the first global quantitative analysis on the size of the area that is on average exposed to strong ground motion – measured by peak ground acceleration (PGA) – is provided.

Modeling the Impact of Earthquake-Induced Debris on Tsunami Evacuation Times of Coastal Cities

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 137-158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastián Castro ◽  
Alan Poulos ◽  
Juan Carlos Herrera ◽  
Juan Carlos de la Llera
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
Coastal Cities ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Evacuation Routes ◽  
The Impact

Tsunami alerts following severe earthquakes usually affect large geographical regions and require people to evacuate to higher safety zones. However, evacuation routes may be hindered by building debris and vehicles, thus leading to longer evacuation times and an increased risk of loss of life. Herein, we apply an agent-based model to study the evacuation situation of the coastal city of Iquique, north Chile, where most of the population is exposed to inundation from an incoming tsunami. The study evaluates different earthquake scenarios characterized by different ground motion intensities in terms of the evacuation process within a predefined inundation zone. Evacuating agents consider the microscale interactions with cars and other people using a collision avoidance algorithm. Results for the no ground shaking scenario are compared for validation with those of a real evacuation drill done in 2013 for the entire city. Finally, a parametric analysis is performed with ten different levels of ground motion intensity, showing that evacuation times for 95% of the population increase in 2.5 min on average when considering the effect of building debris.

scholarly journals The 30 October 2020 Samos (Eastern Aegean Sea) Earthquake: effects of source rupture, path and local-site conditions on the observed and simulated ground motions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aybige Akinci ◽  
Daniele Cheloni ◽  
AHMET ANIL DINDAR
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Structural Damage ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Aegean Sea ◽  
Peak Ground Velocity ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Local Site ◽  
Eastern Aegean ◽  
Motion Characteristics ◽  
Eastern Aegean Sea

Abstract On 30 October 2020 a MW 7.0 earthquake occurred in the eastern Aegean Sea, between the Greek island of Samos and Turkey’s Aegean coast, causing considerable seismic damage and deaths, especially in the Turkish city of Izmir, approximately 70 km from the epicenter. In this study, we provide a detailed description of the Samos earthquake, starting from the fault rupture to the ground motion characteristics. We first use Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and Global Positioning System (GPS) data to constrain the source mechanisms. Then, we utilize this information to analyze the ground motion characteristics of the mainshock in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and spectral pseudo-accelerations. Modelling of geodetic data shows that the Samos earthquake ruptured a NNE-dipping normal fault located offshore north of Samos, with up to 2.5-3 m of slip and an estimated geodetic moment of 3.3 ⨯ 1019 Nm (MW 7.0). Although low PGA were induced by the earthquake, the ground shaking was strongly amplified in Izmir throughout the alluvial sediments. Structural damage observed in Izmir reveals the potential of seismic risk due to the local site effects. To better understand the earthquake characteristics, we generated and compared stochastic strong ground motions with the observed ground motion parameters as well as the ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs), exploring also the efficacy of the region-specific parameters which may be improved to better predict the expected ground shaking from future large earthquakes in the region.

Seismic ground-motion computations at low probabilities

1986 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 595-599
Author(s):  
W. G. Milne ◽  
D. H. Weichert
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Basic Assumption ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Frequency Of Occurrence ◽  
Probability Level ◽  
Dominant Contribution ◽  
Attenuation Relationships ◽  
Source Zones ◽  
Average Structures

The seismic provisions for the National Building Code of Canada are based on assumptions that seismic source zones can be defined within which earthquakes are distributed uniformly according to a magnitude/frequency-of-occurrence relation, and that a set of attenuation relationships hold for the earthquake magnitudes and distances that dominate the selected risk level of 10% probability of exceedence in 50 years. These assumptions appear to be reasonable at the probability level used for the average structures included in the code. However, attempts of extending the calculations to significantly lower levels of probability for special structures may invalidate the original assumptions, because the dominant contribution ranges of magnitudes and distances are outside of the intended scope of the ground-motion relations. Moreover, the basic assumption that earthquakes are uniformly distributed over large source zones is seriously compromised.

On the Ductile Response of Stiffened Panels Subjected to Lateral Indentation: Experimental and Numerical Analysis

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hagbart S. Alsos ◽  
Jo̸rgen Amdahl
Keyword(s):  
Finite Element ◽  
Plate Thickness ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Instability Criterion ◽  
Potential Hazard ◽  
Explicit Finite Element ◽  
Stiffened Panels ◽  
Environmental Consequences ◽  
Structural Capacity ◽  
Indentation Tests

Reliable prediction of ductile fracture is essential in analysis of accidental response of ships and offshore structures. The consequences of fracture are significant. It may imply a significant reduction in structural capacity. It may also pose a potential hazard for human safety, as well as lead to an environmental and economical loss, e.g. caused by tanker collision or grounding. A series of five steel-plate indentation tests were conducted at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Department of Mariner Technology, during late fall 2007. These are performed quasi-statically on various configurations of stiffened panels. The tests represent hull or deck plates in ships or platform structures subjected to accidental actions from ship-ship collisions, ship grounding or dropped object impacts. Various configurations of stiffened panels are tested, all laterally by a cone shaped indenter until fracture occurred. The specimen dimensions represent a 1:3 scale of the dimensions found in medium sized tankers, i.e. plate thickness of 5 mm. Naturally, because damaged hull and cargo tanks may cause severe environmental consequences, focus is on the plastic deformation and fracture resistance of the panels. The panel tests are primarily intended to serve as verification for advanced finite element simulations using a failure criterion based on instability mechanisms, i.e. local necking. This is implemented into the non linear explicit finite element code LS-DYNA and is referred to as the BWH instability criterion. In addition, the influence of the element size with respect to onset of failure is studied using three different element sizes for the various test cases. Although, attention is primarily placed on accidental scenarios, such as ship collision and grounding, the experimental results are of considerable relevance for other types of abnormal actions, e.g. dropped objects on deck and subsea structures, and stiffened panels subjected to explosion or ice actions.

Surface topography effects on seismic ground motion and correlation with earthquake-induced landslide: An example of the JiuJiu peaks in 1999 Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun-Te Chen ◽  
Shiann-Jong Lee ◽  
Yu-Chang Chan
Keyword(s):  
Surface Topography ◽  
Seismic Response ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Seismic Waves ◽  
Velocity Structure ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Buffer Layers ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Mesh Model

<p>The topography effect has been thriving investigated based on numerical modeling. It impacts the seismic ground shaking, usually amplifying the amplitude of shaking at top hills or ridges and de-amplifying at valleys. However, the correlation between the earthquake-induced landslide and the topographic amplification is relatively unexplored. To investigate the amplification of seismic response on the surface topography and the role in the Chi-Chi earthquake-induced landslide in the JiuJiu peaks area, we perform a 3D ground motion simulation in the JiuJiu peaks area of Taiwan based on the spectral element method. The Lidar-derived 20m resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data was applied to build a mesh model with realistic terrain relief. To this end, in a steep topography area like the JiuJiu peaks, the designed thin buffer layers are applied to dampen the mesh distortion. The three doubling mesh layers near the surface accommodate a more excellent mesh model. Our results show the higher amplification of PGA on the tops and ridges of JiuJiu peaks than surrounding mountains, while the de-amplification mostly occurs near the valley and hillside. The relief topography could have a ±50% variation in PGA amplification for compression wave, and have much more variety in PGA amplification for shear wave, which could be in the range between -50% and +100%. We also demonstrate that the high percentages of the landslide distribution right after the large earthquake are located in the topographic amplified zone. The source frequency content interacts with the topographic feature, in general, small-scale topography amplifies the higher-frequency seismic waves. It is worthy of further investigating the interaction between the realistic topography and the velocity structure on how to impact the seismic response in the different frequency bands. We suggest that the topographic seismic amplification should be taking into account in seismic hazard assessment and landslide evaluation.</p>

End-to-end PGA estimation for earthquake early warning using transformer networks

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jannes Münchmeyer ◽  
Dino Bindi ◽  
Ulf Leser ◽  
Frederik Tilmann
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Earthquake Early Warning ◽  
P Wave ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Target Sites ◽  
End To End

<p>The key task of earthquake early warning is to provide timely and accurate estimates of the ground shaking at target sites. Current approaches use either source or propagation based methods. Source based methods calculate fast estimates of the earthquake source parameters and apply ground motion prediction equations to estimate shaking. They suffer from saturation effects for large events, simplified assumptions and the need for a well known hypocentral location, which usually requires arrivals at multiple stations. Propagation based methods estimate levels of shaking from the shaking at neighboring stations and therefore have short warning times and possibly large blind zones. Both methods only use specific features from the waveform. In contrast, we present a multi-station neural network method to estimate horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) anywhere in the target region directly from raw accelerometer waveforms in real time.</p><p>The three main components of our model are a convolutional neural network (CNN) for extracting features from the single-station three-component accelerograms, a transformer network for combining features from multiple stations and for transferring them to the target site features and a mixture density network to generate probabilistic PGA estimates. By using a transformer network, our model is able to handle a varying set and number of stations as well as target sites. We train our model end-to-end using recorded waveforms and PGAs. We use data augmentation to enable the model to provide estimations at targets without waveform recordings. Starting with the arrival of a P wave at any station of the network, our model issues real-time predictions at each new sample. The predictions are Gaussian mixtures, giving estimates of both expected value and uncertainties. The model can be used to predict PGA at specific target sites, as well as to generate ground motion maps.</p><p>We analyze the model on two strong motion data sets from Japan and Italy in terms of standard deviation and lead times. Through the probabilistic predictions we are able to give lead times for different levels of uncertainty and ground shaking. This allows to control the ratio of missed detections to false alerts. Preliminary analysis suggest that for levels between 1%g and 10%g our model achieves multi-second lead times even for the closest stations at a false-positive rate below 25%. For an example event at 50 km depth, lead times at the closest stations with epicentral distances below 20 km are 6 s and 7.5 s. This suggests that our model is able to effectively use the difference between P and S travel time and accurately assess the future level of ground shaking from the first parts of the P wave. It additionally makes effective use of the information contained in the absence of signal at other stations.</p>

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