Can the National Classification System for Contaminated Sites be used to rank sites?

2012 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 415-431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ron J. Thiessen ◽  
Gopal Achari
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Partial Order ◽  
Classification System ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Contaminated Sites ◽  
Ranking Procedure ◽  
Higher Rank ◽  
Partial Order Ranking ◽  
Using Data ◽  
A Site

In this paper, the ability of the National Classification System for Contaminated Sites (NCSCS) to rank contaminated sites has been investigated by comparing NCSCS score ranks to preliminary quantitative risk assessment (PQRA) result ranks. A recently published hierarchical partial order ranking procedure was applied to hazard quotients from PQRAs to generate ranks. Using data from 20 federal contaminated sites, the study showed that sites with low and high NCSCS score ranks correspond reasonably with low and high PQRA results ranks though there is scatter amongst the data in mid-ranges. Although the output from both the NCSCS and PQRAs have significant uncertainties, the study concludes that indeed the NCSCS can be used to rank sites. A figure is provided indicating the probability that a site with a higher NCSCS score will have a higher rank, as per PQRA.

Layers of Bias: A Unified Approach for Understanding Problems With Risk Assessment

2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 185-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurel Eckhouse ◽  
Kristian Lum ◽  
Cynthia Conti-Cook ◽  
Julie Ciccolini
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Justice System ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
Final Layer ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Using Data

Scholars in several fields, including quantitative methodologists, legal scholars, and theoretically oriented criminologists, have launched robust debates about the fairness of quantitative risk assessment. As the Supreme Court considers addressing constitutional questions on the issue, we propose a framework for understanding the relationships among these debates: layers of bias. In the top layer, we identify challenges to fairness within the risk-assessment models themselves. We explain types of statistical fairness and the tradeoffs between them. The second layer covers biases embedded in data. Using data from a racially biased criminal justice system can lead to unmeasurable biases in both risk scores and outcome measures. The final layer engages conceptual problems with risk models: Is it fair to make criminal justice decisions about individuals based on groups? We show that each layer depends on the layers below it: Without assurances about the foundational layers, the fairness of the top layers is irrelevant.

scholarly journals Quantitative risk assessment of Bacillus cereus in pasteurised milk produced in the Slovak Republic

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (No. 2) ◽  
pp. 122-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Ačai ◽  
Ľ. Valík ◽  
D. Liptáková
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Bacillus Cereus ◽  
Exposure Assessment ◽  
Dose Response ◽  
Slovak Republic ◽  
Reporting Rate ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Milk Consumption ◽  
Using Data

Quantitative risk assessment of Bacillus cereus using data from pasteurised milk produced in Slovakia was performed. Monte Carlo simulations were used for probability calculation of B. cereus density at the time of pasteurised milk consumption for several different scenarios. The results of the general case exposure assessment indicated that almost 14% of cartons can contain &gt; 10<sup>4</sup> CFU/ml of B. cereus at the time of pasteurised milk consumption. Despite the absence of a generally applicable dose-response relationship that limits a full risk assessment, the probability of intoxication per serving and the estimated number of cases in the population were calculated for the general exposure assessment scenario using an exponential dose-response model based on Slovak data. The mean number of annual cases provided by the risk assessment model for pasteurised milk produced in Slovakia was 0.054/100 000 population. In comparison, the overall reporting rate of the outbreaks in the EU in which B. cereus toxins were the causative agent was 0.02/100 000 population in 2010. Our assessment is in accordance with a generally accepted fact that reporting data for alimentary intoxication are underestimated, mostly due to the short duration of the illness. &nbsp;

scholarly journals COMPARISON OF REQUIREMENTS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND A MODEL FOR EVALUATING CONTAMINATED SITES IN LITHUANIA

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saulius Vasarevičius ◽  
Kęstutis Kadūnas ◽  
Edita Baltrėnaitė
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Organic Matter ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Contaminated Sites ◽  
Contaminated Site ◽  
Organic Chemical ◽  
Preliminary Information ◽  
A Site ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Chemical Materials

This work is aimed at addressing attention to the situation of contaminated sites and emphasizing importance and need for their rehabilitation. The study presents the experience gained by European countries evaluating contaminated sites and rehabilitation framework. A model of assessing contaminated sites in Lithuania consisting of two main stages – preliminary and detailed investigation has been developed. The first one is used for collecting preliminary information on the contaminated site and for evaluating the need for detailed analysis. The second is subjected to a comprehensive risk assessment of the site shifting focus on the environment and human health. The model for evaluating contaminated sites involves organic chemical materials and metals. Risk assessment depends on the sensitivity of a site to contamination. Equations for establishing the level of contamination involve the content of soil organic matter and clay. Correction coefficients used for calculating the level of contamination have been based on statistical analysis and experience gained by the EU countries.

scholarly journals The Ums System for Exposure Assessment in Soil

1997 ◽  
Vol 16 (4-5) ◽  
pp. 375-389 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steffen Stubenrauch ◽  
Hans-Jürgen Koschmieder ◽  
Dirk Bauer ◽  
Peter Doetsch ◽  
Dirk Grünhoff ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Human Exposure ◽  
Contaminated Sites ◽  
Public Security ◽  
Site Factors ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Hazardous Waste Sites ◽  
The Public ◽  
A Site

Risk assessment of contaminated sites intends to identify sources of dangers and, if possible, to quantify risks for objects of the public security that should be protected. The UMS system is an assistance device for the evaluation of human exposure to pollutants from hazardous waste sites. In addition to toxicological questions, the model considers the characteristics of pollution, site factors, and land use and tries to standardize the procedures and methods for the evaluation of a site-specific risk. With the UMS model, it is possible to describe the release and distribution of contaminants in soil and the intake, resorption, and effects in humans.

A semi-quantitative risk assessment model for the outbreak of grass carp hemorrhage

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 521-527 ◽  
Author(s):  
Song YANG ◽  
Shuqin WU ◽  
Ningqiu LI ◽  
Cunbin SHI ◽  
Guocheng DENG ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Grass Carp ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Assessment Model

Risk assessment of Campylobacter species in shellfish: identifying the unknown

1997 ◽  
Vol 35 (11-12) ◽  
pp. 29-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Teunis ◽  
A. Havelaar ◽  
J. Vliegenthart ◽  
G. Roessink
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Contamination Level ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Risk Estimates ◽  
Consumption Data ◽  
Campylobacter Infection ◽  
Campylobacter Spp

Shellfish are frequently contaminated by Campylobacter spp, presumably originating from faeces from gulls feeding in the growing or relaying waters. The possible health effects of eating contaminated shellfish were estimated by quantitative risk assessment. A paucity of data was encountered necessitating many assumptions to complete the risk estimate. The level of Campylobacter spp in shellfish meat was calculated on the basis of a five-tube, single dilution MPN and was strongly season-dependent. The contamination level of mussels (&lt;1/g) appeared to be higher than in oysters. The usual steaming process of mussels was found to completely inactivate Campylobacter spp so that risks are restricted to raw/undercooked shellfish. Consumption data were estimated on the basis of the usual size of a portion of raw shellfish and the weight of meat/individual animal. Using these data, season-dependent dose-distributions could be estimated. The dominant species in Dutch shellfish is C. lari but little is known on its infectivity for man. As a worst case assumption, it was assumed that the infectivity was similar to C. jejuni. A published dose-response model for Campylobacter-infection of volunteers is available but with considerable uncertainty in the low dose region. Using Monte Carlo simulation, risk estimates were constructed. The consumption of a single portion of raw shellfish resulted in a risk of infection of 5–20% for mussels (depending on season; 95% CI 0.01–60%). Repeated (e.g. monthly) exposures throughout a year resulted in an infection risk of 60% (95% CI 7–99%). Risks for oysters were slightly lower than for mussels. It can be concluded that, under the assumptions made, the risk of infection with Campylobacter spp by eating of raw shellfish is substantial. Quantitative risk estimates are highly demanding for the availability and quality of experimental data, and many research needs were identified.

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