Influence of spatial inhomogeneity of tornado occurrence on estimated tornado hazard

2010 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-289 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Tan ◽  
H. P. Hong

Tornado hazard assessment is often based on the consideration that the spatial distribution of tornado occurrence is homogeneous in a region. Although this assumption simplifies the analysis, it could overestimate and underestimate tornado hazard for regions with lower and higher tornadic activity if an average rate of tornado occurrence is employed. The degree of overestimation and underestimation is unknown. This study is focused on the assessment of the impact of spatial inhomogeneity of tornado occurrence on the estimated tornado hazard and the development of tornado hazard maps for southern Ontario. The results indicate that at the factored design wind speed the exceedance probability for tornadic winds is much smaller than that for synoptic winds, even if the spatial inhomogeneity of tornado occurrence is considered. Furthermore, the results show that the spatial inhomogeneity of tornado occurrence has significant impact on the spatial tornado hazard level, that the return period values of tornado wind speed vary significantly over the considered region, and that the inhomogeneity must be considered in developing probabilistic quantitative tornado hazard maps.

Author(s):  
Ф.Ф. Аптикаев

Во всем мире на картах сейсмической опасности приводятся наиболее вероятные значения сейсмических воздействий. В соответствии с допустимым риском эти значения могут быть увеличены. Например, в международных нормах для расчета сейсмостойкости радиационно-опасных объектов наиболее вероятные значения ускорений увеличиваются на величину стандартного отклонения. В отечественных строительных нормах предполагается использование наиболее вероятных значений. Считается, что вследствие различных факторов расчеты воздействий сопровождаются некоторыми погрешностями, вследствие чего оценки воздействий могут быть завышены на 10, 5 и 1% для карт ОСР А, В и С соответственно. Эти оценки были существенно увеличены при округлении оценок интенсивности до целочисленных значений баллов. Однако в пояснительной записке это не было отражено. Поэтому вместо 10, 5 и 1% для карт ОСР А, В и С следуют значения 50, 45 и 41% соответственно. Поскольку баллы нельзя непосредственно использовать в инженерных расчетах, согласно строительным нормам, производится пересчет баллов в ускорения по шкале MSK-64. Однако, еще создатели шкалы MSK-64 b карт ОСР и шкалы MSK-64 указывали, что шкала занижает оценки ускорений примерно в полтора раза. Причина – в шкале MSK-64 приводятся не реальные, а фильтрованные значения. Во время создания этой шкалы основная масса зданий имела не более 5 этажей. Фильтрацией удалялись низкочастотные составляющие, неопасные для существующих зданий. Цель работы – оценить реальную вероятность превышения уровня воздействий при расчетах сейсмостойкости зданий и сооружений. Методы исследования – анализ процедур оценки расчетных воздействий с использованием карт ОСР и строительных норм. Результаты работы – показано, что нормативный уровень ускорений при расчетах сейсмостойкости более, чем в два раза ниже реальных значений All over the world, the most probable values of seismic impacts are shown on seismic hazard maps. According to the acceptable risk, these values can be increased. In domestic building codes, it is customary to use the most likely values. It is believed that due to various factors, the impact calculations are accompanied by some errors, as a result of which the impact estimates may be overstated by 10, 5 and 1% for the general SRF maps A, B and C, respectively. However, these estimates were significantly increased when rounding the intensity estimates to integer values of the scores. However, this was not reflected in the explanatory note. Since the points cannot be directly used in engineering calculations, according to the building codes, the points are converted into accelerations on the MSK-64 scale. However, even the creators of the OSR maps and the MSK-64 scale indicated that the scale underestimates the acceleration estimates by about one and a half times. The Aim of the workis to assess the real probability of exceeding the impact level when calculating the seismic resistance of buildings and structures. Research methods - analysis of procedures for assessing calculated impacts using SRF maps and building codes. Results of the work - it is shown that the standard level of accelerations in the calculations of seismic resistance is more than twice lower than the real values.


2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (14) ◽  
pp. 5088-5101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Doo-Sun R. Park ◽  
Chang-Hoi Ho ◽  
Joo-Hong Kim ◽  
Hyeong-Seog Kim

Abstract The spatial distribution of trends in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity over the western North Pacific Ocean (WNP) during the period 1977–2010 was examined using five TC datasets. The spatial distribution of the TC intensity was expressed by seasonally averaged maximum wind speeds in 5° × 5° horizontal grids. The trends showed a spatial inhomogeneity, with a weakening in the tropical Philippine Sea (TP) and a strengthening in southern Japan and its southeastern ocean (SJ). This distribution could be described by TC intensification rate and genesis frequency, with the aid of the climatological direction of TC movement. The increasing intensification rate around the center of the WNP could mostly account for the increasing intensity over the SJ region, while the influence of both intensification rate and local genesis frequency mattered in the TP region because of the effect of the newly generated and less-developed weak TCs on the TC intensity. Thermodynamic variables (e.g., sea surface temperature, potential intensity, and 26°C isotherm depth) showed almost homogeneous changes in space, possibly favoring intensification rate and genesis frequency over the entire WNP. However, the decreasing intensification rate and genesis frequency in some tropical regions conflicted with the impact of thermodynamic variables; rather, they were in accord with the impact of dynamic variables (i.e., vorticity and wind shear). In conclusion, the spatially inhomogeneous trends in TC intensity could be explained by considering the thermodynamic and dynamic aspects in combination through intensification rate and genesis frequency.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 2647-2663
Author(s):  
Punit K. Bhola ◽  
Jorge Leandro ◽  
Markus Disse

Abstract. In operational flood risk management, a single best model is used to assess the impact of flooding, which might misrepresent uncertainties in the modelling process. We have used quantified uncertainties in flood forecasting to generate flood hazard maps that were combined based on different exceedance probability scenarios. The purpose is to differentiate the impacts of flooding depending on the building use, enabling, therefore, more flexibility for stakeholders' variable risk perception profiles. The aim of the study is thus to develop a novel methodology that uses a multi-model combination of flood forecasting models to generate flood hazard maps with differentiated exceedance probability. These maps take into account uncertainties stemming from the rainfall–runoff generation process and could be used by decision makers for a variety of purposes in which the building use plays a significant role, e.g. flood impact assessment, spatial planning, early warning and emergency planning.


Author(s):  
Punit Kumar Bhola ◽  
Jorge Leandro ◽  
Markus Disse

Abstract. In operational flood risk management, a single best-model is used to assess the impact of flooding, which might misrepresent uncertainties in the modelling process. We have used quantified uncertainties in flood forecasting to generate flood hazards maps that were combined based on exceedance probability scenarios. The purpose is to differentiate the impact of flooding depending on the building use. The aim of the study is thus to develop a novel methodology that uses a multi-model combination of flood forecasting models to generate flood hazard maps with differentiated exceedance probability. These maps take into account uncertainties steaming from the rainfall-runoff generation process and could be used by decision-makers for a variety of purposes in which the building use plays a significant role, e.g. flood impact assessment, spatial planning, early warning and emergency planning.


Author(s):  
Roger Moussa ◽  
Bruno Cheviron

Floods are the highest-impact natural disasters. In agricultural basins, anthropogenic features are significant factors in controlling flood and erosion. A hydrological-hydraulic-erosion diagnosis is necessary in order to choose the most relevant action zones and to make recommendations for alternative land uses and cultivation practices in order to control and reduce floods and erosion. This chapter first aims to provide an overview of the flow processes represented in the various possible choices of model structure and refinement. It then focuses on the impact of the spatial distribution and temporal variation of hydrological soil properties in farmed basins, representing their effects on the modelled water and sediment flows. Research challenges and leads are then tackled, trying to identify the conditions in which sufficient adequacy exists between site data and modelling strategies.


Author(s):  
Oskar Wiśniewski ◽  
Wiesław Kozak ◽  
Maciej Wiśniewski

AbstractCOVID-19, which is a consequence of infection with the novel viral agent SARS-CoV-2, first identified in China (Hubei Province), has been declared a pandemic by the WHO. As of September 10, 2020, over 70,000 cases and over 2000 deaths have been recorded in Poland. Of the many factors contributing to the level of transmission of the virus, the weather appears to be significant. In this work, we analyze the impact of weather factors such as temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and ground-level ozone concentration on the number of COVID-19 cases in Warsaw, Poland. The obtained results show an inverse correlation between ground-level ozone concentration and the daily number of COVID-19 cases.


2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 271-289
Author(s):  
Nathan Sandholtz ◽  
Jacob Mortensen ◽  
Luke Bornn

AbstractEvery shot in basketball has an opportunity cost; one player’s shot eliminates all potential opportunities from their teammates for that play. For this reason, player-shot efficiency should ultimately be considered relative to the lineup. This aspect of efficiency—the optimal way to allocate shots within a lineup—is the focus of our paper. Allocative efficiency should be considered in a spatial context since the distribution of shot attempts within a lineup is highly dependent on court location. We propose a new metric for spatial allocative efficiency by comparing a player’s field goal percentage (FG%) to their field goal attempt (FGA) rate in context of both their four teammates on the court and the spatial distribution of their shots. Leveraging publicly available data provided by the National Basketball Association (NBA), we estimate player FG% at every location in the offensive half court using a Bayesian hierarchical model. Then, by ordering a lineup’s estimated FG%s and pairing these rankings with the lineup’s empirical FGA rate rankings, we detect areas where the lineup exhibits inefficient shot allocation. Lastly, we analyze the impact that sub-optimal shot allocation has on a team’s overall offensive potential, demonstrating that inefficient shot allocation correlates with reduced scoring.


Author(s):  
Sara M.T. Polo

AbstractThis article examines the impact and repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic on patterns of armed conflict around the world. It argues that there are two main ways in which the pandemic is likely to fuel, rather than mitigate, conflict and engender further violence in conflict-prone countries: (1) the exacerbating effect of COVID-19 on the underlying root causes of conflict and (2) the exploitation of the crisis by governments and non-state actors who have used the coronavirus to gain political advantage and territorial control. The article uses data collected in real-time by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) and the Johns Hopkins University to illustrate the unfolding and spatial distribution of conflict events before and during the pandemic and combine this with three brief case studies of Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Libya. Descriptive evidence shows how levels of violence have remained unabated or even escalated during the first five months of the pandemic and how COVID-19-related social unrest has spread beyond conflict-affected countries.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document