Probabilistic assessment of pavement conditions

2001 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 813-822 ◽  
Author(s):  
H P Hong ◽  
S Somo
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Rectangular Pulse ◽  
Traffic Load ◽  
Pavement Performance ◽  
Design Parameters ◽  
Pavement Maintenance ◽  
Comfort Index ◽  
Simple Simulation ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Environmental Actions

Pavements are subjected to repeated traffic and environmental actions. These actions lead to the degradation of pavement and affect the pavement performance. The assessment of pavement performance is important not only for selecting pavement design parameters but also for choosing pavement maintenance and rehabilitation strategies. The traffic loads, the environmental actions, and the properties of pavement material are uncertain. These uncertainties must be taken into account when predicting the pavement performance. Since the traffic and environmental actions vary with time, they should be modeled as stochastic processes. In this study, stochastic models of the net traffic load growth and environmental actions are proposed based on the rectangular pulse processes. These models can be used in conjunction with the Ontario Pavement Analysis of Cost (OPAC) model to predict flexible pavement performance in a probabilistic framework. The prediction of pavement performance for a typical pavement was carried out by using the simple simulation technique and the first-order reliability method. The analysis results suggest that the predicted pavement serviceability measured in terms of the riding comfort index depends on the correlation between traffic effects in each year and the correlation between the environmental actions in each year. The results also suggest that the uncertainty in the riding comfort index is controlled by the uncertainty in traffic and environmental actions in the early stage of service, while it is dominated by the material property of the subgrade in the later stage of service.Key words: deterioration, reliability, pavement, serviceability, stochastic process.

scholarly journals Variability in Pavement Design

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 50-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paola Dalla Valle ◽  
Nick Thom
Keyword(s):  
Pavement Design ◽  
Pavement Performance ◽  
Design Parameters ◽  
Probability Density Distribution ◽  
Analysis And Design ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Subgrade Modulus ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
The Uk

Abstract This paper presents the results of a review on variability of key pavement design input variables (asphalt modulus and thickness, subgrade modulus) and assesses effects on pavement performance (fatigue and deformation life). Variability is described by statistical terms such as mean and standard deviation and by its probability density distribution. The subject of reliability in pavement design has pushed many highway organisations around the world to review their design methodologies, mainly empirical, to move towards mechanistic-empirical analysis and design which provide the tools for the designer to evaluate the effect of variations in materials on pavement performance. This research has reinforced this need for understanding how the variability of design parameters affects the pavement performance. This study has only considered flexible pavements. The sites considered for the analysis, all in the UK (including Northern Ireland), were mainly motorways or major trunk roads. Pavement survey data analysed were for Lane 1, the most heavily trafficked lane. Sections 1km long were considered wherever possible. Statistical characterisation of the variation of layer thickness, asphalt stiffness and subgrade stiffness is addressed. A sensitivity analysis is then carried out to assess which parameter(s) have the greater influence on the pavement life. The research shows that, combining the effect of all the parameters considered, the maximum range of 15th and 85th percentiles (as percentages of the mean) was found to be 64% to 558% for the fatigue life and 94% to 808% for the deformation life.

Reliability of Buried Pipeline Using a Theory of Probability of Failure

2006 ◽  
Vol 110 ◽  
pp. 221-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ouk Sub Lee ◽  
Dong Hyeok Kim ◽  
Seon Soon Choi
Keyword(s):  
Failure Probability ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Reliability Estimation ◽  
Design Parameters ◽  
Buried Pipeline ◽  
Safety Level ◽  
First Order ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Corrosion Defects

The reliability estimation of buried pipeline with corrosion defects is presented. The reliability of corroded pipeline has been estimated by using a theory of probability of failure. And the reliability has been analyzed in accordance with a target safety level. The probability of failure is calculated using the FORM (first order reliability method). The changes in probability of failure corresponding to three corrosion models and eight failure pressure models are systematically investigated in detail. It is highly suggested that the plant designer should select appropriate operating conditions and design parameters and analyze the reliability of buried pipeline with corrosion defects according to the probability of failure and a required target safety level. The normalized margin is defined and estimated accordingly. Furthermore, the normalized margin is used to predict the failure probability using the fitting lines between failure probability and normalized margin.

scholarly journals Introducing Value Axiom for New Design Creations

2019 ◽  
Vol 301 ◽  
pp. 00002
Author(s):  
Masayuki Nakao ◽  
Kenji Iino
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Design Parameters ◽  
Independence Axiom ◽  
Design Equation ◽  
Functional Requirements ◽  
Monetary Value ◽  
Perfect Set ◽  
Information Axiom ◽  
Japanese Yen

This paper proposes “Value Axiom” that states “The larger the sum of Customer Attribute values, the better the design.” A customer evaluates a design with the sum of the value produced by each Customer Attribute, expressing it with a monetary value such as Japanese yen. A designer can hardly estimate and express a perfect set of Customer Attributes at the early stage of a design. The designer writes down the design equation to visualize the entire design, and improves the sets of Design Parameters and Functional Requirements using the Independence Axiom and Information Axiom, and at the same time, it is also important to review the values of Customer Attributes using the Value Axiom.

VB on the Highway Pavement Performance Prediction and Optimization of Maintenance Programs

2011 ◽  
Vol 90-93 ◽  
pp. 2015-2019
Author(s):  
Pei Feng Cheng ◽  
Qian Qian Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Original Data ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Pavement Performance ◽  
Dynamic Programming Method ◽  
Pavement Condition ◽  
Pavement Maintenance ◽  
Module Prediction ◽  
Evaluation Module ◽  
Pavement Performance Prediction ◽  
Maintenance Plan

Highway maintenance is the main new task after highway construction. In order to predict pavement performance reasonably, and choose the most reasonable maintenance plan, based on investigating and inspecting the pavement condition , use computer language of VB from inputting the data module, establishing evaluation module, maintenance module, prediction module, economic evaluation module and statements processing module of pavement maintenance management system. Put the original data into this system. The system can predict pavement performance and choose maintenance scheme automatically, and use multi-objective optimization model, the effect of the definition and dynamic programming method to optimize the scientific and reasonable maintenance plan, which is from technical and economic aspects to realize by using the limited maintenance funds to achieve the best maintenance effect and to obtain the biggest social and economic benefits.

Comprehensive Evaluation on Technical Economic Performance and Scheme Optimization for Asphalt Mixture

2011 ◽  
Vol 328-330 ◽  
pp. 1287-1291
Author(s):  
Zhong Da Chen ◽  
Lei Xing ◽  
Wei Wang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Asphalt Mixture ◽  
Decision Function ◽  
Pavement Performance ◽  
Pavement Maintenance ◽  
Harmonic Factor ◽  
Managerial System

The pavement performance of asphalt mixture and its adaptability to features of application area, cost estimation and harmonic relationship between performance and cost were studied and analyzed in this paper, evaluation model of technical and economic performance of asphalt mixture was constructed, evaluating indicators of technical and economic performance of asphalt mixture as performance matching coefficient, cost conversion demarcation coefficient and harmonic factor of performance and cost and corresponding calculation methods were proposed. On this basis, discrimination function of performance and cost was built to provide theoretical basis and decision support for selecting a satisfactory asphalt mixture scheme which had the best pavement performance and economic performance under certain natural and constraint conditions, it can provide a reference for the development of assist decision function of managerial system of pavement maintenance as well.

The Analysis and Research on the Reliability of Concrete Pavement

2011 ◽  
Vol 217-218 ◽  
pp. 256-261
Author(s):  
Zhao Qiang Zhang ◽  
Zhong Guo Yang
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Systematic Study ◽  
Structural Design ◽  
Structure Design ◽  
Concrete Pavement ◽  
Pavement Performance ◽  
Design Parameters ◽  
Actual Situation ◽  
Structure Reliability ◽  
Vehicle Load

As the uncertainty of the influencing factors including the vehicle load and road environment and the complexity of road structure design parameters making the structural design of concrete pavement does not match with the actual existing situation, therefore, how to further improve the existing pavement design methods and how to scientifically and reasonably evaluate the reliability of the existing pavement performance have been a hot issue among academics and engineers at home and abroad. This paper analyzes and summarizes results of recent studies on the basis, combining with the actual situation of concrete pavement project, and carries out a more in-depth systematic study on the reliability analysis of concrete pavement. By studying the basic theory of engineering structure reliability, this paper proposes analysis methods of pavement reliability which are appropriate for the characteristics of pavement structure.

Discussion on the Design of Freezing Dehumidification-Based Radiant Air-Conditioning System

2012 ◽  
Vol 204-208 ◽  
pp. 4274-4279
Author(s):  
Chao Yi Tan ◽  
Han Qing Wang ◽  
Hui Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Air Conditioning ◽  
Design Method ◽  
Load Ratio ◽  
Design Parameters ◽  
Air Conditioning System ◽  
Comfort Index ◽  
Low Energy Consumption ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Approximation Calculation

For the purpose of realizing non-dewfall condition of the radiant panels, low energy consumption and nice comfort of the freezing dehumidification-based radiant air-conditioning system, the design temperature and humidity of the room were figured out according to the mean comfort index of human body during the design. And in order to lower the energy consumption, the necessity of the reasonable load allocation between the dehumidification unit and the radiant unit was discussed by means of the calculation with the quasi heat-humidity-ratio line. As a result, much more precise design parameters were acquired through the approximation calculation. And it was proven to be a good design method by applying these parameters to the design of the reading rooms of the library. In the design example of the reading room, the load ratio between the dehumidification unit and the radiant unit was 48 to 52, and the recirculation air flow rate of the dehumidification unit was not less than 36.8% of the total air rate of the room.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document