scholarly journals A critique of Hubbert’s model for peak oil

FACETS ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 260-274
Author(s):  
Trevor H. Jones ◽  
N. Brad Willms
Keyword(s):  
Production Rate ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Resource Scarcity ◽  
Peak Oil ◽  
Logistic Curve ◽  
Natural Resource Scarcity ◽  
Land Mass ◽  
Autonomous Differential Equations ◽  
Time Autonomous ◽  
Oil Company

In 1956, Shell Oil Company geologist M. King Hubbert published a model for the growth and decline over time of the production rates of oil extracted from the land mass of the continental US. Employing an estimate for the amount of ultimately recoverable oil and a logistic curve for the oil production rate, he accurately predicted a peak in US oil production for 1970. His arguments and the success of his prediction have been much celebrated, and the original paper has 1400 publication citations to date. The theory of “peak oil” (and subsequently, of natural resource scarcity in general) has consequently become associated with Hubbert and “Hubbert” curves and models. However, his prediction for the timing of a world peak oil production rate and the subsequent predictions of many others have proven inaccurate. We revisit the Hubbert model for oil extraction and provide an analysis of it and several variants in the language of (time) autonomous differential equations.

McCulloch, Scrope, and Hodgskin: Nineteenth-Century Versions of Julian Simon

2003 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 289-301 ◽  
Author(s):  
William S. Kern
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Natural Resource ◽  
Resource Scarcity ◽  
Limits To Growth ◽  
Economic Progress ◽  
Natural Resource Scarcity ◽  
Growing Population

In The Ultimate Resource (1981, 1996), and in many other publications over the last several decades, Julian Simon put forth controversial views regarding the connection between natural resource scarcity, population growth, and economic progress. Simon argued, in contrast to those espousing the limits to growth, that natural resources were not getting scarcer, but more abundant, and that a large and growing population was an asset rather than a liability in the pursuit of economic growth.

The Effect of Technological Parameter on the Co-liquefaction of Coal with Lignin

2012 ◽  
Vol 577 ◽  
pp. 167-170
Author(s):  
Qing Jie Tang ◽  
Zhi Hong Wang
Keyword(s):  
High Pressure ◽  
Production Rate ◽  
Reaction Temperature ◽  
Conversion Rate ◽  
Technological Parameter ◽  
Initial Pressure ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Important Influence ◽  
Mixture Ratio

The co-liquefaction of coal with lignin was studied by minisize high pressure reactor, tetralin and Fe2O3 were used as solvent and catalyst, and the study was focused on the reaction temperature, initial pressure of hydrogen and mixture ratio of lignin with coal. The results showed that the reaction temperature, the initial pressure and mixture ratio has the important influence on the conversion rate of coal, the oil production rate in the process of co-liquefaction with coal and the lignin. Effect of co-liquefaction is best in reaction temperature 440°C, initial pressure 9Mpa, mixture ratio of lignin and coal for 2∶8, the conversion rate of coal and the oil production rate respectively achieves 87.66% and 50.39%.

scholarly journals Comparison Between Homogenous and Heterogeneous Reservoirs: A Parametric Study of Water Coning Phenomena

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-131
Author(s):  
Frzan F. Ali ◽  
Maha R. Hamoudi ◽  
Akram H. Abdul Wahab
Keyword(s):  
Production Rate ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Water Production ◽  
Effective Parameters ◽  
Radial Cross Section ◽  
Heterogeneous Reservoirs ◽  
Water Breakthrough ◽  
Water Coning ◽  
Water Cut ◽  
Reservoir Simulator

Water coning is the biggest production problem mechanism in Middle East oil fields, especially in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. When water production starts to increase, the costs of operations increase. Water production from the coning phenomena results in a reduction in recovery factor from the reservoir. Understanding the key factors impacting this problem can lead to the implementation of efficient methods to prevent and mitigate water coning. The rate of success of any method relies mainly on the ability to identify the mechanism causing the water coning. This is because several reservoir parameters can affect water coning in both homogenous and heterogeneous reservoirs. The objective of this research is to identify the parameters contributing to water coning in both homogenous and heterogeneous reservoirs. A simulation model was created to demonstrate water coning in a single- vertical well in a radial cross-section model in a commercial reservoir simulator. The sensitivity analysis was conducted on a variety of properties separately for both homogenous and heterogeneous reservoirs. The results were categorized by time to water breakthrough, oil production rate and water oil ratio. The results of the simulation work led to a number of conclusions. Firstly, production rate, perforation interval thickness and perforation depth are the most effective parameters on water coning. Secondly, time of water breakthrough is not an adequate indicator on the economic performance of the well, as the water cut is also important. Thirdly, natural fractures have significant contribution on water coning, which leads to less oil production at the end of production time when compared to a conventional reservoir with similar properties.

scholarly journals Supply chain strategies in an era of natural resource scarcity

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 784-809 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitra Kalaitzi ◽  
Aristides Matopoulos ◽  
Michael Bourlakis ◽  
Wendy Tate
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Natural Resource ◽  
Resource Dependence ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Resource Dependence Theory ◽  
Resource Scarcity ◽  
The Body ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Natural Resource Scarcity

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the implications of natural resource scarcity (NRS) for companies’ supply chain strategies. Design/methodology/approach Drawing on the resource dependence theory (RDT), a conceptual model is developed and validated through the means of exploratory research. The empirical work includes the assessment of qualitative data collected via 22 interviews representing six large multinational companies from the manufacturing sector. Findings When the resources are scarce and vitally important, companies use buffering strategies. Buffering and bridging strategies are preferred when there are a few alternative suppliers for the specific resource and when there is limited access to scarce natural resources. Research limitations/implications The research focuses on large multinational manufacturing companies so results may not be generalised to other sectors and to small- and medium-sized firms. Future research needs to examine the implications of NRS for organisational performance. Practical implications This research provides direction to manufacturing companies for adopting the best supply chain strategy to cope with NRS. Originality/value This paper adds to the body of knowledge by providing new data and empirical insights into the issue of NRS in supply chains. The RDT has not been previously employed in this context. Past studies are mainly conceptual and, thus, the value of this paper comes from using a qualitative approach on gaining in-depth insights into supply chain-related NRS strategies and its antecedents.

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