A reappraisal of the ocean migration patterns of Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) by individual-based modelling

Although sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) spend 1-4 years in the ocean and accumulate 99% of adult body weight during this period, their migratory patterns in the Northeast Pacific are not yet well understood. A model of ocean migration based on conjecture from limited catch and tagging data has influenced work in sockeye ecology for the past 20 years. To evaluate this model, we constructed a spatially explicit individual-based model that used ocean surface currents and simple behavioural rules to simulate migration patterns for sockeye from the Fraser River system. We explored several modelled behaviours, including random swimming and swimming with a directional bias during some months. The simulations begin at the time when juveniles leave inside coastal waters and end when return migration begins (a few months before river reentry). We determined that simple undirected swimming for most of the ocean phase (except the first 4 months when smolts are near the coast) provided results that challenged the prevailing model but did not require complex assumptions. The migration patterns generated by these rules compare well both qualitatively and quantitatively with the existing empirical data on British Columbia sockeye distribution and migrations in the ocean.