Effect of Coastal Winds on the Summer Dispersal of Young Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) from the Colville River to Prudhoe Bay, Alaska: A Simulation Model

A one-dimensional advection model was used to simulate the movement of young (< 180 mm) anadromous least cisco (Coregonus sardinella) along the Beaufort Sea coast between the Colville River and Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. Two versions of the model simulated eastward movement during the month of July as the sum of wind-induced transport and constant dispersion. Model results were compared with fyke-net catch data collected from 1981 to 1992. Of the 12 years examined, the models correctly simulated no major arrival of fish in 1983, 1985, 1986, 1987, and 1992, simulated the exact day of arrival in 1981, 1989, and 1991, and were in error by 1 d in 1988. Approximately 71% of the error between simulated and observed arrival dates was associated with three specific years: 1982, 1984, and 1990. The model suggests that wind-governed circulation may reasonably account for the presence of young Colville River least cisco in the Prudhoe Bay area. Results are discussed in terms of their relevance for assessing the effects of Arctic oil development on regional fishery resources.