Assessing the Potential Extent of Damage to Inland Lakes in Eastern Canada due to Acidic Deposition. IV. Uncertainty Analysis of a Regional Model

1991 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 599-606 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael L. Jones ◽  
Charles K. Minns ◽  
David R. Marmorek ◽  
Kim J. Heltcher
Keyword(s):  
Water Acidification ◽  
Eastern Canada ◽  
North Central ◽  
Input Uncertainty ◽  
Inland Lakes ◽  
Surface Water Acidification ◽  
Sulphate Deposition ◽  
Extent Of Damage ◽  
Acidification Model ◽  
Acidic Sulphate

In this paper, we consider the significance of uncertainty in inputs to the regional surface water acidification model of Marmorek et al. (1990. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 47: 55–66). Monte Carlo methods are used to propagate input uncertainty through to measures of uncertainty in the model's overall predictions. We consider four key inputs which represent primary areas of input uncertainty: acidic sulphate deposition (Da), original lake sulphate concentrations ([SO4]0), a watershed neutralization parameter (FW), and an in-lake neutralization parameter (SS). The analysis is repeated for secondary watersheds from north-central Ontario, the Quebec Laurentians, and insular Newfoundland. Uncertainty in Da and [SO4]0 consistently overwhelms the effect of uncertainty in FW and SS on overall model uncertainty. The relative importance of Da decreases as one moves east from the high-deposition regions of central Ontario. We discuss the implications of our results for priority setting for future acidification research and monitoring.

Assessing the Potential Extent of Damage to Inland Lakes in Eastern Canada due to Acidic Deposition. III. Predicted Impacts on Species Richness in Seven Groups of Aquatic Biota

1990 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 821-830 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. K. Minns ◽  
J. E. Moore ◽  
D. W. Schindler ◽  
M. L. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Species Richness ◽  
Acidic Deposition ◽  
The United States ◽  
Eastern Canada ◽  
Inland Lakes ◽  
Sulphate Deposition ◽  
Extent Of Damage ◽  
Taxonomic Groups ◽  
Acidic Sulphate ◽  
Sulphur Dioxide Emission

Linked regional chemical and biotic models predicted that at least 20% of all lakes in 15 of 38 secondary watersheds in eastern Canada had lost at least 20% of their potential species richness given 1980 acidic sulphate deposition levels; 20% of lakes in 15 watersheds represents circa 55 000 lakes. Fish and molluscs were the most affected of seven aquatic taxonomic groups, and rotifers the least. Mean percent loss of potential richness in all of eastern Canada ranged from 5.0 to 9.5% for the seven groups of biota under 1980 acidic deposition. Sulphur dioxide emission reductions of 42% in Canada and the United States were predicted to reduce the number of affected watersheds to seven, leaving circa 25 000 lakes with 20% or more loss of potential richness. Greater acidic deposition reductions will be needed to minimize the biotic damage affecting large areas of eastern Canada.

Assessing the Potential Extent of Damage to Inland Lakes in Eastern Canada due to Acidic Deposition: II. Application of the Regional Model

1990 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael L. Jones ◽  
Charles K. Minns ◽  
David R. Marmorek ◽  
Floyd C. Elder
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Eastern Canada ◽  
Lake Chemistry ◽  
Lake Water Chemistry ◽  
Surface Water Acidification ◽  
Sulphate Deposition ◽  
Extent Of Damage

In this, the second of two papers on the development and application of a regional model of surface water acidification, we present the results of initial applications of the model to sensitive regions of eastern Canada. Data used for regional application of the model were obtained from a variety of sources, including acidic sulphate deposition monitoring data and regional lake water chemistry surveys. While these data do not provide a random sample of eastern Canadian lakes, we argue that there are no a priori reasons for expecting highly misleading biases in the data. Results of model applications are presented for observed 1980 sulphate deposition levels and for three alternative emission scenarios. The emission scenarios were simulated using a transfer matrix derived from the AES-LRTAP model. The results suggest that substantial additional damage (declines in surface water alkalinity and pH) is expected in some regions (e.g. northeastern Ontario), even at current deposition levels. The consequences of simple emission reduction strategies differ significantly among regions, suggesting that more complex strategies may be required to produce equitable benefits. To assist interpretation of a complex array of results, we propose an integrated representation of regional impacts that uses quantile-quantile plots of regional distributions of lake chemistry. Finally, we argue that while the results presented are highly uncertain, there are reasons to believe that, if anything, our damage estimates are conservative.

Assessing the Potential Extent of Damage to Inland Lakes in Eastern Canada due to Acidic Deposition. I. Development and Evaluation of a Simple "Site" Model

1990 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
David R. Marmorek ◽  
Michael L. Jones ◽  
Charles K. Minns ◽  
Floyd C. Elder
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Acidic Deposition ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Eastern Canada ◽  
Lake Chemistry ◽  
Site Model ◽  
Sulphate Deposition ◽  
Aquatic Effects ◽  
Extent Of Damage

Large scale aquatic effects of acidic deposition have become a prominent environmental issue in North America and Europe. Models are required to assess the potential future impacts of current levels of acidic deposition, and the potential benefits of emission controls. This paper presents a model that uses measurements of current lake chemistry and assumptions about the processes governing acidification, to first estimate original (i.e. preacidification) lake chemistry and then predict the eventual chemistry expected given a specified level of acidic sulphate deposition. The model is deliberately kept simple, so that its input requirements are modest and thus can be met on a regional scale. When applied on a regional scale the model predicts the expected eventual distributions of alkalinity and pH. Application of the model is illustrated for a watershed in north-central Ontario, which includes the area immediately to the south and west of Sudbury. Model-based estimates of current alkalinity are very similar to observed alkalinities. The predicted eventual alkalinity distributions, given current levels of deposition, indicate a trend towards recovery, consistent with other observations in the Sudbury region. A sensitivity analysis of the model indicates that its outputs are highly sensitive to estimates of preacidification lake sulphate levels, and less so to assumptions about the catchment's ability to neutralize incoming acidity. Simple, regional models such as the one presented in this paper should play a more central role than they presently do both in assessment and in the definition of future research and monitoring needs.

Mapping the relative risk of surface water acidification based on cumulative acid deposition over the past 25 years in Japan

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 115-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naoyuki Yamashita ◽  
Hiroyuki Sase ◽  
Tsuyoshi Ohizumi ◽  
Junichi Kurokawa ◽  
Toshimasa Ohara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Relative Risk ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Acid Deposition ◽  
Water Acidification ◽  
The Past ◽  
Surface Water Acidification

Establishing past environmental conditions and tracking long-term environmental change in the Canadian Maritime provinces using lake sediments

2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer B. Korosi ◽  
Brian K. Ginn ◽  
Brian F. Cumming ◽  
John P. Smol
Keyword(s):  
Nova Scotia ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
New Brunswick ◽  
Water Acidification ◽  
Maritime Provinces ◽  
Freshwater Resources ◽  
Anthropogenic Stressors ◽  
Surface Water Acidification

Freshwater lakes in the Canadian Maritime provinces have been detrimentally influenced by multiple, often synergistic, anthropogenically-sourced environmental stressors. These include surface-water acidification (and a subsequent decrease in calcium loading to lakes); increased nutrient inputs; watershed development; invasive species; and climate change. While detailed studies of these stressors are often hindered by a lack of predisturbance monitoring information; in many cases, these missing data can be determined using paleolimnological techniques, along with inferences on the full extent of environmental change (and natural variability), the timing of changes, and linkages to probable causes for change. As freshwater resources are important for fisheries, agriculture, municipal drinking water, and recreational activities, among others, understanding long-term ecological changes in response to anthropogenic stressors is critical. To assess the impacts of the major water-quality issues facing freshwater resources in this ecologically significant region, a large number of paleolimnological studies have recently been conducted in Nova Scotia and southern New Brunswick. These studies showed that several lakes in southwestern Nova Scotia, especially those in Kejimkujik National Park, have undergone surface-water acidification (mean decline of 0.5 pH units) in response to local-source SO2 emissions and the long-range transport of airborne pollutants. There has been no measureable chemical or biological recovery since emission restrictions were enacted. Lakewater calcium (Ca) decline, a recently recognized environmental stressor that is inextricably linked to acidification, has negatively affected the keystone zooplankter Daphnia in at least two lakes in Nova Scotia (and likely more), with critical implications for aquatic food webs. A consistent pattern of increasing planktonic diatoms and scaled chrysophytes was observed in lakes across Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, suggesting that the strength and duration of lake thermal stratification has increased since pre-industrial times in response to warming temperatures (∼1.5 °C since 1870). These include three lakes near Bridgewater, Nova Scotia, that are among the last known habitat for critically endangered Atlantic whitefish (Coregonus huntsmani). Overall, these studies suggest that aquatic ecosystems in the Maritime Provinces are being affected by multiple anthropogenic stressors and paleolimnology can be effective for inferring the ecological implications of these stressors.

The Surface Water Acidification Project (SWAP) Palaeolimnology Programme

1990 ◽  
Vol 327 (1240) ◽  
pp. 227-232 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Lake Sediment ◽  
Water Acidification ◽  
Diatom Analysis ◽  
Atmospheric Contamination ◽  
Surface Water Acidification ◽  
History Of ◽  
Study Sites ◽  
Water Acidity

Improvements in techniques of lake-sediment analysis over the last two decades have enabled palaeolimnologists to reconstruct changes in water acidity and atmospheric contamination with high resolution. In the Surface Water Acidification Project (SWAP) Palaeolimnology Programme these techniques have been used to trace the history of a range of specially selected study sites and to evaluate alternative causes for lake acidification. At the same time further improvements in some of the techniques, especially diatom analysis, have been made.

Radiometric dating of the United Kingdom SWAP sites

1990 ◽  
Vol 327 (1240) ◽  
pp. 233-238 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sediment Cores ◽  
Radiometric Dating ◽  
Recent Sediment ◽  
Accumulation Rates ◽  
Water Acidification ◽  
Sediment Record ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Surface Water Acidification ◽  
Study Sites ◽  
Gamma Assay

Measurements of 210 Pb by direct gamma assay have been used to date sediment cores from Surface Water Acidification Project (SWAP) study sites in the U.K. The results were checked against additional dating evidence from the artificial fallout isotopes 137 Cs and 241 Am. At one of the sites, Devoke Water in Cumbria, the 137 Cs and 241 Am data were crucial in identifying a recent sediment hiatus. At sites with recently afforested catchments the sediment record indicated substantial increases in accumulation rates.

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