Modelling the Initiation of Spring Phytoplankton Blooms: a Synthesis of Physical and Biological Interannual Variability off Southwest Nova Scotia, 1983–85
Chlorophyll and nitrate data from monthly surveys off southwest Nova Scotia indicate the spring phytoplankton bloom began near the end of March of each year, occurring early (late) in 1984 (1983). The highest chlorophyll biomass(all months) was found in 1985. Using survey data, the Sverdrup hypothesis for the initiation of the bloom was tested by comparing the critical depth, Zcr, for net phytoplankton production to the observed mixed-layer depth, Zmix. Survey median Zcr/Zmix were consistently less than 1 until May, suggesting that observed blooms were initiated by events outside the specific survey periods. Results of a mixed-layer model incorporating surface heating, differential advection and turbulent dissipation by wind and tide showed reasonable agreement with observed mixed depths, and patterns of the mean (modelled) mixed-layer light intensity are significantly correlated with observed chlorophyll biomass. In 1983 and 1984, mean light intensities first exceeded the critical value for a bloom to occur in late March. In 1985, transient periods of stratification in mid-February and early March produced intensities greater than the critical value. These events, together with higher nitrate concentrations and lower Zooplankton biomass, appear to be responsible for the high chlorophyll biomass observed in 1985.