Managing Herring Fisheries Under Uncertainty
The implications of the biological characteristics of the Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus harengus) on fishery management strategies are examined. Growth patterns and recruitment fluctuations limit opportunities to stabilize catches and stock biomasses without substantial loss of yield-per-recruit. The dynamics of herring stocks are much more dependent on recruitment than growth. Potential effectiveness of fishery management is also constrained by tendencies of herring populations to school, reducing self-regulatory possibilities by allowing catch rates to remain high when abundance is low, and to mix, complicating the estimation of catch-at-age and abundance indices. Given the vulnerability of herring to exploitation and the imprecision of abundance indices, achievement of relative stability of spawning stocks and catches requires adoption of fishing mortality rates near or below 0.2 in adult herring fisheries. Fisheries on immature herring reduce, and may destabilize, recruitment to spawning stocks and give lower yield-per-recruit than fisheries on mature herring although product prices may be higher. A simple stochastic model of the dynamics of an exploited herring population is examined. Analysis of this model demonstrated behaviour qualitatively similar to that observed in earlier studies of general production models subject to stochastic noise.