Consistency of COSEWIC species at risk designations: freshwater fishes as a case study
The Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) is responsible for the assessment of Canadian wildlife at risk. The COSEWIC assessment process is primarily based on five quantitative criteria developed by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, but allows for further modification of designations under certain conditions. This study investigated the consistency of designations predicted using the quantitative COSEWIC criteria compared with observed designations reported by COSEWIC. A total of 49 COSEWIC designations for freshwater fishes from 2000 to 2007 were compared for consistency in decision-making. Overall, there was a 57.1% agreement between predicted and observed designations. A substantial number (35.1%) of COSEWIC designations were downlisted from “Endangered” or “Threatened” without sufficient explanation to justify the modifications. For the cases of uplisting, these differences were associated with qualitative criteria not effectively represented in our algorithm. Recommendations are offered to improve the transparency and accountability of COSEWIC decision-making, including enhancements to reporting and the explicit incorporation of uncertainty in the COSEWIC risk assessment protocol.