Rule of age and size at maturity of chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta): implications of recent trends among Oncorhynchus spp.
In the last quarter of the 20th century, the size at maturity of many North Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) populations decreased. During this same period, the age at maturity increased, implying that the growth rate of Pacific salmon decreased, probably owing to environmental changes. To elucidate these trends, we identified the rule of age and size at maturity of Japanese chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta), which was that slow-growing salmon initiated maturation at an older age and smaller size than did fast-growing salmon. We then simulated the potential modification of age and size at maturity in response to changing growth rate using a size-structured model with age- and size-specific maturation rates. This showed that reducing the growth rate without assuming a genetic change was sufficient for realistic modeling of recent changes. In addition, the observed rule of age and size at maturity was consistent with the optimal age and size at maturity in terms of maximizing the fitness. Our results attributed the recent trends in chum salmon's increasing age and decreasing size at maturity to an adaptive phenotypic response to a reduced growth rate.